Friedman has posted a discussion (not picks) of the Whitney and Haskell, although it is pretty clear in both cases which horse he likes this time, if not what would constitute cashing the race. In any event, it\'s clear there are some significant differences in the numbers/patterns for both races. Since we did the Haskell as ROTW, I propose the following 2 horse to horse matchups, given our respective positions:
Lion Heart (me) vs. Rock Hard Ten (LF), one has to win for someone to cash.
Pie\'s Prospect (me) vs. Wimplestiltskin (LF), whichever finishes ahead as long as one is in the top three.
Len, let me know if you want to do this for more than bragging rights. Look, you\'re due.
Those who are greedy of praise prove that they are poor in merit. -- Plutarch.
In addition, your ROTW comment on Wimple proves your arrogance, as if we needed more proof. Come on fellas, lighten up. You have a decent product that I believe is superior to the other guys, but take it easy on the self-proclaimed deity jazz.
Would have never thought to go look at the other BB if you hadn\'t suggested it. I had quit looking at it after they went to the java applet setup, since it is slow to initialize and refresh.
So, you win on web design, but they win on the Whitney. Today they have your toss (Wimple) as their value play. Granted he is in deep and not my choice, but I don\'t believe that justifies your utter disregard for his connections.
I will weigh in on this ROTW since I have a different opinion than both TGJB and RAGROBES.
We had a discussion on this board not long ago about the grind of too-fast-too-early and the TC on Smarty Jones and I think Lion Heart is a classic example (as much so as SJ). True, he did not run in the Belmont but he had several fast 2 year-old races and 4 big efforts in a row this spring starting with the San Rafael followed by the BG, Derby and Preakness. Not to mention he appears to have some distance limitations given his breeding and running style so those last 2 spring efforts probably really took a toll given his willingness to try hard even after he is tired and beyond his best distance. I think he could fall apart at any time and is a play against from now on. He may last through the Haskell but I will take a pass on him. Keep in mind though that I was also betting against him in his last 3 races (TGJB liked him in the Derby and I did not) and he has ran well in all three..
I think My Snookie\'s Boy is the value in here. He gets the rail and a repeat of his last could win this. His last was very impressive in that he took on Lion Heart from start to finish and almost won despite that not being his normal running style.
I would expect a possible change in tactics today and Lion Heart also picks up 5 lbs and an extra 1/6 of a mile.
The TG stats say summer dirt 3yos have a 1 in 3 chance to pair a new top but if you factor in the trainer and the fact MSB has a strong overall line (note that all of his 2-turn races have been tops) and he has run 2 staight tops at Mth then I think he is about 50/50 to run another big one and could turn the tables on LH this time even if LH runs well (and LH may not even run his race given the above discussion.) MSB will likely feel the effects of his recent races at some point but he may have another good effort or two in him before then.
I agree that Pie\'s Prospect is live but I doubt he will go off at anything near his morning line. If he does, he is value.
Rock Hard Ten could be any type and may have really benefitted by missing the Derby and is likely to move forward sometime soon and it might be today but he will be overbet.
Good luck to all.
Chris
Errr... Thanks for playing. One race doesn\'t prove anything but my triple ticket still cashed nicely. Lucy may want to unbunch her panties at this point. I\'m sure that was uncomfortable.
Not only did you beat Ragozin on all counts, but your LS ran big to complete the tri. Snookie hurt me a bit by finishing 2nd. Congratulations on yet another great piece of handicapping. Too bad Bravo did not ride in the triple crown races in lieu of Smith, who killed this terrific horse\'s chance to be in the money in the Belmont with his way off the rail ride.
Post Edited (08-08-04 18:43)
As usual TGJB you crushed those other guys.
Have they picked a winner all year??? I know JJ hasn\'t, the only thing he has PICKED is a fight with you because you threw him out of here. And for good reason.
Also I know you were a little negative on Iwinski\'s horse but at decent odds and his last number you had to throw him in. Also it sounds like he has some trouble in his past and put it all behind him. You have to admire somebody like that, I know I do.
Lets hope he beats this next challenge, I sure he will.
sc,
if you don\'t read the other board, why would you embarrass yourself w/a stupid question like that?
not to tout, but since you asked, len picked the whitney --- nice pick in a tough race.
I had to go all the way back to yesterday to find that one.
re: haskell
checking this week\'s rotw, I see that snookie was also \"a contender\", despite the fact that \" a bounce is likely \" --- nice work, tgjb, as always!
if I had boxed your 5 contenders, I could\'ve had the tri.
You know I missed that particular post, but you are correct he did have the Whitney. That\'s a very hard Board to read, I hardly ever go there anymore since they changed to the \"Get Smart\" style security.
Also in the Whitney analysis he mentioned something about Baffert being fairly hot but maybe having shot his load. Is he now doing commercials for Levitra???
Post Edited (08-08-04 21:31)
hehe...
yeah, I prefer the old board, too.
unfortunately, I think they had a big spamming problem w/a couple juveniles......
wish they had used another software package, though.
have to agree with Lucy on this one!
I thought CC Lopez gave PIE\'S PROSPECT an awful ride. Pace was comfortable and all CC did was wrangle him back and choke him down. He never made use of Pie\'s speed and the horse was a bit sluggish on the turn when finally asked to run. Ran on well stretch and actually pulled up ahead of the winner.
Good Luck,
Joe B.