Of a runner coming off a Big Top who throws a bullet work first time back and gives everyone the idea \"see it took nothing out of him\".
As a matter of fact over time these types have become a toss for me (at least in the win position) and more often than not it has proven to be \"Justified\". Now in this recent circumstance Justify isn\'t coming in off a Big Top but something about that 46 work last week doesn\'t feel right. And make no mistake the betting public will see it and be ready to pounce in the wagering pools. With Clockers and Racing Pundits all over probably ready to declare \"Finished full of run\" I\'m still leery!
A mile and half is a long ways. The energy level can go quickly. Big Brown looked like he was running against only the wind. Stranger things have happened......
Silver- isn’t it sort of damned if you do and damned if you don’t?. Had Justify’s works been pedestrian this Board would be loaded with comments that the works wer evidence he is over the top. I confess to being agnostic re Justfy in the Belmont (not because of number power, but my fear that the wear and tear of his campaign will catch up to him in the last quarter mile). I do hope that the many posters who have already declared that they have concluded he is not a great horse ( I assume we can stipulate that by definition, as well as by looking at history, that a triple crown winner is a great horse)will acknowledge in a post Belmont the error of their ways.
It reminds me of the work Orb threw down the week before his Preakness flop.
With that final sentence you are assuming he wins. And yes if that happens even if you are labeled the worst Triple Crown winner of all time you are still in a pretty exclusive club.
I don\'t know anything about Equine Anatomy. Biomechanic\'s etc. I just know a horse that is coming off efforts, just because he works fast, it doesnt mean next time out he runs fast. As a rule I try and bet the opposite. Simple because the value opportunity lies elsewhere.
If Justify has another triple digit Beyer in him he wins. If he is about to post a 92 he loses. The difference financially in this 10 point gap for a gambler is significant....
Scat Daddy babies tend to run approx 4 pts slower on wet tracks then dry tracks.
Baffert tends to run 16% new tops and 27% pairs on off tracks,compared to
18% & 30% on fast tracks.
Narrow it down to 3year olds this time of year Baffert runs 21% tops & 31% pairs.
Considering this horse is the first ever to win the first two legs of the triple crown on sloppy tracks. To see his numbers regress a tad I would say is ok as we do not have any history to compare this accomplishment,especially after Smith said he jumped the tracks 3 times in the Preakness.
I would love to see him on a dry track and may the best horse win.
Good Luck
John
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Of a runner coming off a Big Top who throws a
> bullet work first time back and gives everyone the
> idea \"see it took nothing out of him\".
>
> As a matter of fact over time these types have
> become a toss (at least in the win position) and
> more often than not it has proven to be
> \"Justified\".
You\'re making an assertion, which is fine. But its no different than many other assertions made on this forum, and many times people are asked to produce actual facts to back them up.
Its an angle. No different than people who throw horses out who are badly washed out in the post parade. Or have a \"Bo\" \"Bi\" in their previois race on Thorograph.
Is it a 100% absolute? Nothing in racing is
Energy distribution as important as any other factor on Saturday. Can Justify relax early?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Justify probably more relaxed than people posting here.
That said, at 3 or 4/5, a bet against and let me see history and not feel so bad if I lose to an undefeated TC winner.
PS. Was at the \'77 Belmont and bet $300 on Seattle Slew. That meant about what $1000 or even $2000 means to me today - a lot! Saw him all lathered up coming to the post (paid $1.50 for my seat right before the finish line) and FLEW back to the windows to sell my tickets (6 $50 tickets as there were windows for different value wagers!) There were no longer ANY lines - no one near - as everyone wanted to see the start and was near/at their seats.
Sometimes better to be lucky than good! Doubt I\'ll be betting even $300 on the Belmont this Saturday - there probably will be better opportunities - and everyone should relax and enjoy the whole day and especially the big race.
Anticipation is not relaxing!
Funny Cide did the same thing. Worked bullets. Came into the race too sharp. Couldn’t relax. Wilted late.
Big Brown was off steroids for the Belmont.
But the Belmont has been a betting bonanza when the TC has been on the line. You can’t pass this one. Plus, Justify will have to be an extraordinary horse to win the Belmont with so much racing in so little time. Lots of reasons for him not to fire.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Energy distribution as important as any other
> factor on Saturday. Can Justify relax early?
>
> Joe B.
I certainly agree with you yet some would say the horses story is not really the issue. An odds on favorite into big pools is perceived as a can\'t skip opportunity.
If Justify\'s name were Secretariat many voices would rationalize playing against him.
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If Justify\'s name were Secretariat many voices
> would rationalize playing against him.
One of the many ways that horses and horse racing in the 1970s can not be
compared to horses and horse racing in this century.
For Secretariat\'s Belmont, I am fairly certain that the only mutuels available
were win and place ($2.60 and $2.20); the record shows that the $3 exacta
combining Secretariat and Twice a Prince (18/1) returned $35.20. (clear cut
second fave Sham was off the board). No tri, no super, no P3, P4, no NYRA Bets
(not open to the public) P5, no P6, no WOR-TV special double wager featuring
the Belmont and a harness race run (much) later that night at Yonkers Raceway.
Just a long winded way of saying (though not as much so as in a 20 horse
Kentucky Derby) there are ways a horseplayer can monetize a Justify Triple
Crown clinching Belmont win. One only needs what Walt \"Clyde\" Frazier might
call some \"serendipity\" in the races surrounding the Belmont and a decent score
in a multiple race wager is not impossible.
To me the largest obstacle Justify faces is what I call the reverse curse of
Apollo. The issue is not now that he was an unraced 2YO, but rather that he
will be making his 6th start in 111 days, perhaps qualifying him as an iron
horse in this day of less is more lightly raced superstars.
Baffert obviously has a good feel for this whole Triple Crown thing with
American Pharaoh and his near misses in the late 1990s. I believe that Baffert
will eventually be the proprietor of a \"boutique\" barn where he almost
exclusively trains Triple Crown prospects, though we sometimes forget that he
has trained the winners of five Breeder\'s Cup Sprints.
Looking forward to seeing Saturday entries 12 or so hours from now.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tavasco Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > If Justify\'s name were Secretariat many voices
> > would rationalize playing against him.
>
> One of the many ways that horses and horse racing
> in the 1970s can not be
> compared to horses and horse racing in this
> century.
>
> For Secretariat\'s Belmont, I am fairly certain
> that the only mutuels available
> were win and place ($2.60 and $2.20); the record
> shows that the $3 exacta
> combining Secretariat and Twice a Prince (18/1)
> returned $35.20. (clear cut
> second fave Sham was off the board). No tri, no
> super, no P3, P4, no NYRA Bets
> (not open to the public) P5, no P6, no WOR-TV
> special double wager featuring
> the Belmont and a harness race run (much) later
> that night at Yonkers Raceway.
>
> Just a long winded way of saying (though not as
> much so as in a 20 horse
> Kentucky Derby) there are ways a horseplayer can
> monetize a Justify Triple
> Crown clinching Belmont win. One only needs what
> Walt \"Clyde\" Frazier might
> call some \"serendipity\" in the races surrounding
> the Belmont and a decent score
> in a multiple race wager is not impossible.
>
> To me the largest obstacle Justify faces is what I
> call the reverse curse of
> Apollo. The issue is not now that he was an
> unraced 2YO, but rather that he
> will be making his 6th start in 111 days, perhaps
> qualifying him as an iron
> horse in this day of less is more lightly raced
> superstars.
>
> Baffert obviously has a good feel for this whole
> Triple Crown thing with
> American Pharaoh and his near misses in the late
> 1990s. I believe that Baffert
> will eventually be the proprietor of a \"boutique\"
> barn where he almost
> exclusively trains Triple Crown prospects, though
> we sometimes forget that he
> has trained the winners of five Breeder\'s Cup
> Sprints.
>
> Looking forward to seeing Saturday entries 12 or
> so hours from now.
Interesting a guy this good (Baffert) barely takes a sniff of the Big Time Turf Stakes. Regarding the one Triple Crown win there have been 2 near misses. Silve Charm and Real Quiet.
If this was say the Suburban Handicap and people were trying take a stand against the 4-5 favorite they would be considered sharp horse players. Playing against Justify these days is almost viewed by some as Unpatriotic or rooti g against a potential Super Horse. The question is will there be a Jerry Bailey and Eddington loaded into the gate? That 46 Work got followed by another Work. And Im not sure that was the original plan. If the competition rides scared on Saturday they should be ashamed....
Yes, the real quiet, victory gallop Belmont. Watch this on you tube, and a 5 million dollar bonus up for grabs, you won\'t believe it. JB\'s big day I assume