https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDqCbrMrD8E
Justify\'s latest exercise; crazy how well he\'s doing with two weeks still to go. This horse is an absolute freak of nature. If you all live to be over 100 years, you\'ll never see another like this. He breaks all the rules regarding everything we thought a horse could do. Baffert never ceases to amaze me.
Can\'t tell if serious.
A nice horse, that hasn\'t run as fast as AP or Gun Runner or Arrogate. Hell, he hasn\'t run as fast as Gunnevera.
C\'mon man.
Audible or not can\'t wait to bet against Justify. At this point, you have to. Flying to JFK/Elmont to see it live. I expect a pair at best, which may not be enough this year. His biggest asset is not his speed but versatility. Some company at the front would help the cause. It\'s really 50/50, but no value to be gotten from Justify.
PS: Cover with a $1 Win collectible.
You\'re comparing a three year old in May to older, champion runners? By your standard Mendelssohn is the best 3 year old! What I meant specifically is an unraced two year old, undefeated, and winning the triple crown. That\'s what you\'re not likely to see again. To run so many races so close together with no foundation is incredible and almost impossible given the fragile nature of the modern racehorse. He\'s a freak in the sense of his physical makeup and the way he moves, which minimizes the damage since he\'s so efficient and athletic. Look at how many fast horses were destroyed by that rock hard surface on Derby day. He\'s one of the most efficient moving horses ever. At this point there\'s no serious competition from the other 3 year olds--we all thought how deep this division was and it turned out to be thin in the end. Look what Good Magic tried to do him in the Preakness--take him out of his game and he\'s still eased up winning at the wire. Smith is so smart, he\'s aware he\'s won the Preakness and doesn\'t use one more ounce of energy than he needs. Lukas\' horse is coming like a freight train and Smith wasn\'t moving. Only he can beat himself at this point, but he\'ll be, what, 1-5 in the Belmont? Can\'t blame anyone for trying to beat him for the sake of the gambling aspect. I\'ll be very happy for Smith though if he pulls it off. I remember when he was practically thrown out of NY. To say he resurrected his career is an understatement. He\'s ridden many of the greatest racehorses of all time, and if you thrown in a triple crown, he goes down in history as one of the all time greatest jockeys in the sport\'s history, maybe the greatest in terms of the horses he\'s ridden. The whole story is just mind boggling. But hey in this sport talk is cheap, so he still has to show up, right? Gunnevera, that\'s funny by the way. That\'s a good one. I like that.
My comment was in regard to the \"if we live 100 years\" bit.
The trend is not your friend here. Will see more and more of this, but it\'s not even that unique. Big Brown had exactly one race at two, on the grass, and then didn\'t run again until March. They were both 5 for 5 going into NY. He won more impressively to the eye and by TG. Was he better? I don\'t know, but that was a decade ago.
What were these horses destroyed by the Derby surface? Do you really believe that Smith saw Bravazo early enough to account for the wire and the pace? And if he were that concerned with saving energy, he would have shut his horse down, instead of having him gallop out with Tenfold until that one got pulled up.
Regarding the gallop out, Justify always does that, even in workouts; he goes insane if another horse tries to pass him. He wont allow it. You can\'t stop that behavior unless you want to die! Look closely at Smith\'s body position at the wire. He\'s down low and not whipping and not looking around. He knew exactly what he had. I\'m waiting to see Justify let it all hang out. We\'ll see it at Belmont.
Looking back at Baffert\'s Triple Crown attempts maybe reveals a pattern that makes him more of a genius with his \"program\" or \"out of training\" techniques than everyone else. Rather, should I say the TIME OFF leading to their major preparations means as much as anything. I appreciate the praise you are heaping on Justify but basically the only major difference from this one and some of his other major contenders in the TC is the fact he was unraced at 2. After how long he had AP off, I find his work with Justify not all that surprising. Do you really believe those races at 2 made that big of a difference?
The following list includes his 5 Derby winners, his 2 Belmont winners, and Mastery and Justify from the past 2 years along with a note on Arrogate. Those are literally the only ones I looked up so there may be more and there may be examples showing other patterns. But these were the most successful ones Derby and Belmont-wise. The pattern is waiting as long as possible to put them back into racing before the Triple Crown chase.
1997. Silver Charm: 3 races at Del Mar in August (2) and September (1) of his 2yo year. Unraced all of October, November, December, and January. 3 preps into the Derby.
1998. Real Quiet: 10 races from June through Mid-January. 2 months off until mid-March. 2 preps into the Derby.
2001. Point Given: 6 races from August to December. No races all of January and all of Febuary. 2 preps into the Derby.
2002. War Emblem: N/A. Did not have the horse until weeks before the Derby.
2015. American Pharoah: 3 races at 2yo at Del Mar (2) and Santa Anita (1) in August and September. Unraced all of October, November, December, January, and February. 2 preps into the Derby. Before his BC Classic win, 8 weeks off.
2016. Mastery. 3 starts at 2 from October until December 10th. Unraced for almost exactly 3 months. Started back on March 11th and likely 2 preps into the Derby but injured.
2017. Justify. Unraced until February of 3yo year. 3 preps into Derby.
**Arrogate.** Non-TC example. Unraced all of his 2yo year. 4 races from April to early August. Then he rattles off G1 record time Travers, then 2 months unraced, negative 5, then 2.5 months off, negative 5, then 7 weeks off negative 5. Never the same again thereafter.
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I\'ll leave these two questions intentionally broad. Is there a reason a trainer would want to have a horse wait as long as possible for entering them back into training? Was there a recent rule change in a major event where some horses who had success the year before seemed different the next year?
Justify is just an absolute freak to you. To me, he fits a pattern despite not racing at 2.
We may not see this again you are right. But if we do I bet I know the name of the trainer and I bet there will be very little room for error timing wise just like Point Given, AP, and Justify to pull off their Derby attempts and TC heroics.
Last, as for calling him one of the most efficient movers ever I don\'t think Justify is one of a kind based on the quotes below:
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Pharoah, Baffert quote from Bloodhorse.com:
\"The thing about Pharoah... the way he movesâ€"I\'ve never had a horse that moves or travels over the ground like he does. I\'ve had some really good horses but I\'ve never had a horse that moves like that,\" Baffert said. \"There\'s something in there that makes him so different than the other horses. That\'s what we have in our favor.\"
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Arrogate, Smith and Baffert quotes from thoroughbredracing.com:
“His stamina is phenomenal,†Smith said. “I don’t think I’ve been on a horse with that much stamina.â€
Baffert, currently the third-ranked trainer in the world, said Arrogate’s long, graceful stride puts the gray colt among an elite group of runners.
“He jumps farther than anyone I’ve ever trained,†Baffert said. “I’ve never measured it, but his stride is incredible. That’s his weapon. He has speed and he’s light on his feet, but his stride is incredible.â€
I think this is great analysis, and I will pour over it when I have a little more time. You\'re better than many racing writers! And you really hit on something important regarding the time off--I absolutely agree with you on that. Though time off is still not the same as NOT racing at two. The racing experience at two helps a horse mature and the stress of the racing, if not too intense, helps their bones develop and builds a solid frame that can withstand the punishment of a three year old campaign. By the way, if you search for quotes, you\'ll find Baffert also puts Justify in the same league with Arrogate and AP regarding those qualities you point to, stamina and stride, etc. He\'s said it on more than one occasion. I tend to take his words at face value. Unlike most trainers, he\'s pretty straight with the press. I felt AP\'s time off was precisely why he endured the triple crown races; his injury turned into a blessing. Maybe more trainers will apply these parameters, who knows? Probably not Pletcher though! Great work here. I would love to see thorograph numbers worked into the above analysis as well and compared with Justify.
A few quick hitters related to these topics.
1. American Anthem for Winstar Farm has been nominated to the Met Mile. He hasn\'t raced since October 17th. Trainer Bob Baffert.
2. As for Justify, I understand the idea of foundation, racing experience at 2, etc but Big Brown had only 1 start at 2, Hofburg had 1 start at 2, Magnum Moon no starts at 2, Justify no starts at 2, Materialility no starts at 2, etc. It is headed more and more in this direction as Ajkreider mentioned.
3. As for the Triple Crown horses of the 70\'s:
Affirmed: 9 starts at 2 from May through late October. Unraced all of Nov, Dec, Jan, and Feb. 4 preps from March 8th forward.
Seattle Slew: 3 starts at 2 Sept through Oct. Unraced all of Nov, Dec, Jan, and Feb. 3 preps from March 9th forward. Undefeated headed into Derby.
Secretariat: 9 starts at 2 from July through Nov 18. Unraced almost exactly 4 months. 3 preps from March 17th forward.
Looking for a Triple Crown winner? Start them back in March after a break from racing during Dec, Jan, and Feb. based on AP, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat. Maybe Justify is up against it having started in February haha!!
Baffert always said.
\"You have to have the horse\".
i dont know if anyone here remembers the 97 Belmont as Touch Gold gave a nice exacta live as the crowd went silent
“Lays down a monster work†KGB
\"Shocked, shocked I tell you\"... that Baffert has worked a horse this fast!
Did you really attach a 30 minute \"Talkin Heads\" video? Wow.
Hey, \"Love of the Horse\" is a powerful thing. It\'s a thing that can be hard to get away from. It\'s a thing that can lead one to the teller to cash and its a thing that can leave one ripping up too many tickets trying to hit the \"Sure thing\" combination too many times.
For those that do not love horses, (or have learned the lesson not to love them), its a matter of probability. In Justify\'s favor is Bob Baffert and that can give one pause. Against Justify are larger odds and payouts at shorter investments.
In the end, one can hopefully cash Justify and brag, \"I won on the Triple Crown Winner\"...or one can beat him and assert, \"I beat that even money favorite and cashed with a great payer\".
Still believe Justify is going to go \"off\" and it could be fortunate to time that day as well. When it happens some will cry and others will rejoice. Still, in the end, its about probabilities and odds.
T Severini Wrote:
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> Still, in the end, its about probabilities and
> odds.
In the statement above, What does \"its\" refer to? In today\'s diverse world, it seems to me, it is common to assume everyone else thinks like oneself. Worse everyone should think alike.
If you refer, to the gambler, the horse racing fan whose primary interest is economic and I assume you do. OK, Subjective probabilities and objective payoffs changing while horses run down the back stretch are considered fundamental, by those that seem to think they have some statistical advantage. But, I say I have only concern for any/all true fundamentalists.
Not all horse racing fanatics belong to the Gamblers tribe. Sometimes it is entertaining to just observe the players dialogue. This forum for example. Sometimes the story line of a horse and its connections transcends an opportunity for a wager.
Occasionally, we fall in love with our intuition about a certain horse in a certain race and I like that those memories are still with me. Win and lose.
Still, in the end, its about being right and holding onto the belief that one can be right more often than one is wrong for the \"I think I\'m smart\" tribe.
From \"Parade of Tearless Eyes\" by Matt Burke.
The world of horse racing is merely a microcosm of life as we know it. It is a world filled with lost souls in search of riches and privileged souls in search of themselves. It is a world dependent upon controversy and debate, yet one that abounds with poignant competition and delightful solidarity. Horse racing drives human emotions to unimaginable extremes. The highs have been likened to being touched by the hand of God, while the lows can incite ideations of leading the loneliest existence on earth.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
You don\'t need to watch the whole video! Just the workout. There\'s another (shorter) video of Justify\'s latest move which I will spare you from posting (you can find it). You\'re correct about the \"love\" thing. I wouldn\'t have been involved in this game for 40+ years if I didn\'t love something. This horse I love because of his talents and abilities which are rare I can promise you. I\'m honestly not that emotionally involved in the particular outcome though. Me bragging to anyone I predicted this or that doesn\'t matter at this point. Who cares, really. Talk is cheap, you know? In a situation like this with an overwhelming favorite, I\'d be hoping to set up some nice multi-race wagers and be alive to Justify. You can be alive for a lot of money even with a 1-9 shot strange as that sounds. All the best in whatever wagers you construct! Go with him or try to beat him!
that\'s a great excerpt, it seems I need to familiarize myself with the title, nice post, thanks
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Can\'t tell if serious.
>
> A nice horse, that hasn\'t run as fast as AP or Gun
> Runner or Arrogate. Hell, he hasn\'t run as fast
> as Gunnevera.
>
> C\'mon man.
+1. Not the first time and definitely won\'t be the last time the public fawns over a very average Champion. It\'s pretty much the name of the game with the way the media needs to promote the sport.