Nothing you can do after a day of short fields and favorites but turn the page and look ahead, so with that in mind......It would appear on the surface that there may have been a regression from Justify in Baltimore yesterday. Seeing how he came out of the last sloppy track race with questions of lameness and skin irritations, I wonder how he comes out of the Preakness.
What kind of Belmont are we going to see in 3 weeks, a Big Brown/War Emblem style flop? A Smarty/Chrome type effort but coming up short? Or a dominant Pharoah-esque romp into the history books? Early thoughts?
I don’t think Justify will stay the distance. He got a big boost from the off tracks in the first two legs. He’s had a busy schedule. And he seems to be tailing off. Plenty of fresh legs running at him in three weeks. Solid bet against.
Audible would seem to be the logical contender from Pletcher, but he has owners in common with Justify. It will be interesting to see if he is entered.
Since 2000: Last race prior to Belmont:
18 Belmonts:
9 from Derby (50%)
3 from Preakness (Point Given, Afleet Alex, AP)
2 from Peter Pan
4 from other races
Derby is the last best prep for the Belmont.
I’ll be all in on Hofburg. I see a nice trip 4 or 5 lengths off the pace. Hopefully he’ll leave the gate at 6-1 or better.
To me Audible would be a likely contender. I don’t love his pedigree for 12f, but
he has steadily developed down to a 0, and has yet to move
backward. With pletcher at the helm and the tractability u like
to see in the Belmont I have to give him a huge shot if they choose to
run him. Either way I will be betting against justify if he makes it to
the race.
I am currently agnostic re Justify in Belmont but his breeding will not be the issue. FWIW the odds are +260 for a Justify Triple Crown AND a Golden Knights Stanley Cup!
Hofburg and Tenfold. The two most Belmont looking horses I\'ve seen in years.
Both move like they can click 25 seconds off for days.
AP odds in the Belmont were 3-4
Been reading a lot of comments here and other places of how Justify is a bet against in the Belmont.
My question is say he goes of at 7/5 or 3/2
That tells me that Audible,Vino,Hofburg will probably all be under 10-1 Maybe even under 5-1.
Based on last weeks discussion regarding picking a winner vs making the right wager. What would be the right wager here?
If this is to much of a fictional question sorry it’s my fourth day of rain in south Fl,I’ve run out of indoor things to do.
John
Starting in 2001, 25 second quarters (2:30 finish) would have won only 5 Belmont Stakes and lost 12 times! The winner is likely somewhere between 24 second quarters (Secretariat) and that 2:30.
I agree, and I would put Blended Citizen in there as well. Bit of a plodder in his dirt races, but the slow Belmont pace sets up well for him. And we know he can get over the track ok.
Hofburg and Vino Rosso check most of the boxes for me.
He Seemed like a tired horse the last furlong, it took a lot for him to put away Good Magic after setting pedestrian fractions. 1st-5th were separated by less than 3 lengths on the wire, and the 5th place finisher (Lone Sailor) made up double digit lengths in a hurry. The place and show horses were both moving much better late and it wasn\'t like they were coming from the clouds.
It\'s nice to have a HOF Jockey up, he got just enough out of the horse and won the race. Again give him his do though, he was under pressure the entire race, easily the toughest test of his career in my opinion, and he got the job done. For this week, that\'s all that really matters. But I think the question isn\'t if he\'s a play against to win in three weeks, it\'s is he a complete toss and not useable at all?
If I\'m answering the original question today, I see a Big Brown Belmont performance looming. The only difference is Justify will make it into the stretch before he\'s pulled up.
What\'s hard to believe is that HOF rider Mike Smith said (paraphrased) he knew he had the race won and just eased Justify up.
Further, he said Justify is so competitive that he would have rebroke and run away from the second and third place horses if he had either let him or asked him.
As hard as that is to believe I have no reason to disbelieve BIG Money.
I mean, in the \"gallop out\" (which admittedly I usually don\'t give much credence to) Bravazo went by him like he was standing still and Tenfold passed him as well? But MS didn\'t go to the whip late, and he did hit the wire exactly when he needed to, there\'s no denying that.
BB had plenty of glowing words this morning as well. He compared Justify\'s Preakness to AP\'s derby, saying it was a \"tough race for him\" but that he felt he would excel next out in the Belmont. That it would set him up for a huge effort next out.
Good Magic ran another super solid race and gave Justify a fight the entire way around the track before ultimately giving way, but doing so on the rail where many have said wasn\'t where you wanted to be late yesterday. That\'s the first time he\'s been under that kind of sustained pressure. It\'s also the first time he hit the wire with company, and he almost certainly went backwards a point or so (more?). I agree, I have no reason to not believe or question what MS & BB say, but man...
Coming back for a 3rd race in 6 weeks after slugging it out like that on the deepest and heaviest of tracks, going the 1.5, further than any horse wants to go, and then when you consider some of the quality that\'s waiting for him, and they\'ll be fresh, I personally just don\'t see it.
Baffert had another kind of cryptic quote today where he just through out unprovoked that \"he\'s seen a lot of good horses never win again after going 1.5.\" It seemed kind of ominous even though he went on to praise his horse\'s ability and show total confidence in him getting the distance? (Though he originally thought he\'d top out at 7F??)
But hey, what\'s better than lining up and firing your best shot against a short priced favorite going for the triple crown on Belmont day...as good as it gets! Here\'s to it!
HOF jockey and all but seriously, Mike is full of total shit, sorry.
is there a good link/video for the gallop out? I\'m not seeing a version of these 2 galloping out past Justify?
Again with the racing fan experts, everyone seems to think he was tired, but after if you saw the video of him basically dressage prance stepping thru the backside as he was led back to his stall right after the race you would see that he clearly was not that tired by the effort at all. Visual facts seem to line up with Smith\'s story.
Still a lot of things that can go wrong between now and the Belmont, to be sure, and he\'s no shoe-in to win the race. But of the dozen or so we\'ve had the last couple decades, he has as good a chance as any because of his physical size and speed ability.
Will be interesting to see if someone enters a sprinter to try to run him out of the race and see if he can truly rate off pace. That\'s going to be their best chance to beat him, no other stakes-quality route horse has the kind of speed that will bother him.
If Smith is to be believed and he had already geared down Justify, the gallop out is absolutely meaningless
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7vM07MGV-s0
Here’s as good as i could find. And Bravazzo did not gallop out past him. Just sayin.
Thanks. I saw the same thing!
Anyone think Romans enters Promises Fulfilled?
Good Luck,
Joe B
I\'m not sure a true rabbit will hurt his chances. He\'s been very forward in the last two because of the conditions and he was on the lead in the SA Derby because there was no other speed in the race.
I\'m in the camp that might argue he\'s won the last two despite the conditions, not because of them. A fast track with a target like Promises Fulfilled likely produces his best performance to date assuming he comes out of the last in good order.
My first read on the gallop out was that Justify wouldn\'t let Tenfold by. But looking at it again, I think it\'s just a matter of Smith not pulling Justify up, while Tenfold gets pulled up.
Huh? Bravazo goes by him when they change camera angles. It looks like Bravazo continues on more of a straight line while Justify begins to go \"around the turn\" But it appears to me that Bravazo certainly passes him?
In the video you posted if you pause it right before they switch the camera angle you can see him clearly ahead and then like I said above in the next angle they run in different paths so to say with Bravazo continuing more \"straightish\" while Justify rounds the turn.
Regardless I don\'t put much stock in the gallop out anyway and if Smith pulled him up, like others say, it doesn\'t matter at all.
I certainly don\'t claim to be an expert in reading a horse\'s mannerisms or body language and will gladly defer to you or anyone else on here when it comes to that. And according to all reports he looked good the next morning, that said, two horses who weren\'t considered to be in the same league as him two weeks prior made up substantial beaten lengths to the point that Bravazo was only beaten 1/2 a length.
Yes it\'s a different race, different conditions, and \"performance isn\'t a constant\" but as dominate as his derby win was, in my opinion this was anything but. They went out pretty slow, and again, he hit the tape w/ horses who weren\'t even an after thought two weeks prior. He was under pressure the whole way around the track Saturday for the first time ever.
He wasn\'t dominate which is ok, but I find it hard to believe that was by design. A win is a win is a win no doubt, but it\'s hard for me to believe that MS was so confident he geared him down to the point of just holding on like that.
He\'s great, but off that effort for me he\'s a clear bet against.
trwhis2 Wrote:
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> I\'m not sure a true rabbit will hurt his chances.
> He\'s been very forward in the last two because of
> the conditions and he was on the lead in the SA
> Derby because there was no other speed in the
> race.
>
> I\'m in the camp that might argue he\'s won the last
> two despite the conditions, not because of them.
> A fast track with a target like Promises Fulfilled
> likely produces his best performance to date
> assuming he comes out of the last in good order.
Agree with this.
He doesn\'t need the lead, so entering rabbits or hoping for a pace meltdown out of him....I\'m not sure that\'s going to be an issue. He likes to be forwardly placed, but doesn\'t need the lead.
Justify pressed a quality horse all the way around the track and held off the closers. I\'m not going to get too caught up over a gallop out or what Smith said after the race.
He\'ll be a short price and obviously everyone will be lining up to beat him. Hopefully we get a dry track and great racing all day. The biggest disappointment has been the effect the weather has had on the undercard, and Belmont usually has a spectacular undercard on Belmont day.
What i was told was that Justify rebroke when saw Bravazzo at the wire. If he passed him at all it was briefly.
I dunno what the number will be. Guess would be -1 or -.075 depending upon ground. Cant tell where Justify was on 2nd turn, maybe 3 path average? But running eyeball to eyeball for the first mile is tough on any horse. What happened to AP when Frosted ran with him in the Travers?
Speaking of AP.
On an equally sloppy pimlico track Pharoah went 22.90, 46.49, 111.42, 137.74, 158.46 and was pulling away to win by 7 as he came home his last 3/16 in 20.72.
Justify went 23.22, 47.29, 111.42, 136.10, 155.93 going eyeball to eyeball with good magic all the way around and still had enough left to come home his last 3/16 in 19.83 and hold off late runners.
You cant necessarily compare raw times from days 3 days apart let alone 3 years. But in this case by my math the variant is about the same for both days.
So Justify ran eyeball to eyeball, faster, and was wider than AP. So whether he regressed a bit or not, that was a good performance IMO.
I have no opinion on whether this means Justify is more or less likely to bounce in the Belmont. They are all different and handle it differently. Percentages would say if you’re going to bet he’s a bet against though. More people have walked on the moon than there are horses who have won the triple crown.
\"Walked on the moon\" was excellent, MJ, whether it\'s literally true or not.
I did an interview with a guy (Daily News?) some years ago. He talked to me for an hour about the horse going for the TC in the Belmont, I think Big Brown. I think the only quote he used was \"Why would you take 3/5 on something that hasn\'t happened the last 12 times it could have\"?
And by the way, that is setting up as a wildly interesting race, and a great card.
TGJB Wrote:
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> And by the way, that is setting up as a wildly
> interesting race, and a great card.
You gonna do a seminar similar to Derby Day??
Highly likely. NYRA works with us to get us probables in advance, which makes all the difference. So does Churchill.
What kind of pull do you have with the weather gods? Just saying a dry track would be nice for a change...
mjellish Wrote:
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> What i was told was that Justify rebroke when saw
> Bravazzo at the wire.
>
Why would one let someone else \"inform\" them of what happened at /past the wire? Isn\'t it there for anyone to see for themselves?
Waiting to see the figs for the Preakness, but what about that previous Preakness? On its face, are you implying those two efforts are equivalent?
2015 Preakness (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8S5Hh9MSlw)
I dont have clown vision to see through fog. And i wasnt there.
And No. I’m saying Justify’s was better.
Apparently, whoever informed you that Justify \"rebroke\" has that Fog Clown Vision however!
I\'ll wait for the TFigs before commenting further upon the comparison with American Pharaoh.
Interesting race though, lots of meat on that bone.
https://twitter.com/horseracing4beg/status/999344398042202113
My guess is both won\'t be more than a 1/4 point difference. So much is made from horses going eyeball to eyeball. Until i see something(plenty of data)or someone can read a horse\'s mind it\'s a bit leaky especially when horse A wins on the front/stalking and deep closes ala El Gato.
I have seen way to many comments over the years about what happened after the finish line in a race. To me, it has never made much sense, nor made an difference in the next race. I also, don\'t regard trainers saying \"He wasn\'t even breathing hard\" after the race, same issue, doesn\'t mean a thing next time out. IMO.
my favorite is \" he left some in the tank \"
Thanx Pete,
Hadn\'t seen that angle, and from it does look like Justify is \"going on\" with the best energy. Other angles indicate a bit differently.
Would point out the \"outrider pony\" was waiting for the winner to take them to the Trophy Circle and Smith let Justify gallop on to the pony, while the other horses were definitely in full pull up mode right after the wire, likely wanting to get off that surface as soon as possible. The Awesome Again, was also pulling up and out which magnified the optics.
The track turn came quickly up as well and Justify covered less ground while the others were pulling up.
For some, energy after the wire can be a variable. There\'s a couple Derby horses pointing for the Belmont in that regard. Agree with other posters though that \"Rebreaks\" do not occur after the wire, especially when one can tell horses are shutting down.
First, you gotta give Justify his due. This time, a full circuit horse in Good Magic went with him and put full race pressure on him. He didn\'t wear Good Magic down til the very end and that may have left him vulnerable, but he still pulled it off.
There were however, a handful of horses there with him. Justify will make his own luck and he did. Looking forward to seeing if Tgraph biased the track at all.
The Awesome Again ran a helluva race. Really loved his race on that crap. The other horse that you have to acknowledge is Lone Sailor. One day, maybe against lesser, he\'s gonna catch a break.
Good Magic earns a little rest. He\'s a good horse too.
Don\'t know what Lukas, Mott and Instilled Regard\'s trainers are thinking, but you\'d think its time to throw a couple rabbits at him just to cinch the deal.
boardedup Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I certainly don\'t claim to be an expert in reading
> a horse\'s mannerisms or body language and will
> gladly defer to you or anyone else on here when it
> comes to that. And according to all reports he
> looked good the next morning, that said, two
> horses who weren\'t considered to be in the same
> league as him two weeks prior made up substantial
> beaten lengths to the point that Bravazo was only
> beaten 1/2 a length.
>
> Yes it\'s a different race, different conditions,
> and \"performance isn\'t a constant\" but as dominate
> as his derby win was, in my opinion this was
> anything but. They went out pretty slow, and
> again, he hit the tape w/ horses who weren\'t even
> an after thought two weeks prior. He was under
> pressure the whole way around the track Saturday
> for the first time ever.
>
> He wasn\'t dominate which is ok, but I find it
> hard to believe that was by design. A win is a
> win is a win no doubt, but it\'s hard for me to
> believe that MS was so confident he geared him
> down to the point of just holding on like that.
>
> He\'s great, but off that effort for me he\'s a
> clear bet against.
Chuckles,
I look forward to your yearly TC season visits. I often wonder when you will run out of material? This year we add clown vision & the Easter Bunny......
Please continue to self medicate. In another year, two at the most you will make
the characters of Randle Patrick McMurphy & the Chief look like a high school production.
Keep on Keepin On......
Bettabecareful with Clownvision, truth be told anyone looking at the races here is clearly a figure purist. When the numbers are close, sometimes one looks to separate them in other ways.
In this case we have equivalently scored Preaknesses in 2015 and 2018. The same horse! This year, we have a third place horse that ran the fastest number.
Which brings everyone to the Belmont!
Lagniappe!...It\'s a term a great Cajun Chef used. His name was Paul Prudomme. If you like slightly spicy food, he was the man. But what it means is a little something extra. A bonus in a way.
Preakness trips. One can\'t have watched those last few races and not noticed the jocks were avoiding the rail. Earlier in the card theres little doubt they were using the rail. But by races 12 and 13, one would have to be blind to not see they were avoiding it like the plague. There was a lull in the rain before the fog settled in, precisely when probably isn\'t relevant but by those latter races it certainly appears to have changed.
Further evidence? Look at Quip out of the gate from the 1 hole. Was that horse urged and going nowhere? Sure looked like the rail was not the place to be late. Not sure what kind of vision that is, but judge for yourself.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> I look forward to your yearly TC season visits. I
> often wonder when you will run out of material?
> This year we add clown vision & the Easter
> Bunny......
>
> Please continue to self medicate. In another year,
> two at the most you will make
> the characters of Randle Patrick McMurphy & the
> Chief look like a high school production.
>
> Keep on Keepin On......
I appreciate you clearing up some of the fine points and questions of the last month. Thanks, even though I may not fully comprehend all yet. So consider, if you would, explaining the logic of M. Ruis saying he will send Bolt D\'Oro to the Met Mile?
I\'m assuming as the trainer of only one of two horses who actually put a move on Justify i.e. tried to pass him, MR concluded than running against Justify was a hopeless endeavor so he\'d rather try the fastest dirt milers alive?
Well, Bolt d\' Oro declared off the Preakness immediately after the Derby and then vacillated over running in the Preakness during Justify\'s heel bruise shenanigans. In retrospect, do you think he should have taken a shot at the Preakness? Not sure Bolt d Oro handles goop as well, so maybe it all works out for him.
Not sure who is in the Met Mile. Maybe it is the spot to get Black Type, generally its a stacked race vs olders. Though he is bred to run long, maybe Ruis has made the determination he\'ll be a better one turn horse. Wouldn\'t you like to see Bolt D\'Oro conditioned by a veteran horseman?