I keep comparing these two, considering all of the similarities they share.
With that being said, if Bodemeister had a chance to catch a breather during that 3rd qtr (his 109, Justfy 111), there would have been no way I’ll Have Another would have caught him.
Their early fractions were roughly the same. Except Justify had a nice 25 and change 3rd qtr. On the other hand Bodemeister was still going hard with intense pressure.
Is there someone in the Preakness who can push Justify to a 1:10 or less? Otherwise it doesn’t look like Justify should have too much trouble in Baltimore.
Please,why didn’t Bode beat IHA in the Preakness?
So you want to compare raw times in a derby that finished in 201.change (IHA) with a derby that finished in 204.change (justify)? I mean, clearly the tracks were pretty much the same right?
Yes, you’re right, the tracks were the exact same and simply asking the question of whether there was someone who could push Justify harder (something like Frosted and AP in the Travers) was obviously a stupid question to ask.
geldhy7 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, you’re right, the tracks were the exact
> same and simply asking the question of whether
> there was someone who could push Justify harder
> (something like Frosted and AP in the Travers) was
> obviously a stupid question to ask.
1. Not so obviously stupid to me, of course I was the last to figure out why my boy Jack was taking money.
2. C/B you\'re messing with P-Dub. The board thin skinned argumentative condition seems to be lingering.
3. Certainly there are, even in Marylard, a few three y/o\'s that can run with Justify for 6F. But what\'s the point. They either end up exhausted and run last or they are cometitive with with Justify and deserve a bet on their own merits, In short who wants to sacrifice an entry.
4. Reminds me of what Trinniberg did which I suppose ended up beating Bode. Most forget Trinniberg made a move on Bode going into the second turn @ CD before giving up the ghost. He was also a Breeder\'s Cup sprint champion and couldn\'t/didn\'t keep up with Bodemeister.
That said, My candidate w/b Vouch.
Thanks for a reply, I appreciate it. Does Chad Brown have anyone he could send as a rabbit to try setting up Good Magic?
Looking at the final figs, Bravazo ran a nice race. Maybe one of D Wayne’s horses can go on a suicide mission?
Will Justify’s intense, compact schedule catch up to him? If not at Pimlico then maybe Belmont.
What is this fixation with finding a horse to \"push\" Justify?
He went to the front:
1) He has natural speed
2) Connections didn\'t want him getting bounced around, checked, or any number of things that happen when you have 20 horses crammed on one track. Especially a sloppy track.
He is not some one dimensional speed freak. This horse can rate off the pace just fine. Its going to take more than a \"rabbit\" or two to beat this colt.
P-Dub apologies I go two different threads mixed up. Its been that kind of day for me.
Geldhy7,
I\'m not a big fan of the rabbit tactic and that said I guess DWL would try it before CCB.
Until CCB commits Good Magic to the Preakness I\'m going to assume he\'ll look for an easier spot and not the Belmont. I saw Good Magic as a horse with nothing left at the finish line @ CD.
If CCB tries the Preakness it might be MM or Audible. Instilled Regard should not be dismissed IMO. I don\'t see the point in speculating who will go at Pimlico when in a few days it will become public knowledge.
Justify, sure to be odds on and imo that will be an underlay. Plus it is just one of say a dozen races. Bravazo is one I\'ll follow and maybe an Indiana, Ohio or Illinois Derby winner.
I don’t disagree with you. The horse looks extremely talented as well as versatile. I’m simply looking for scenarios where he could possibly be beat. The only way I can see him getting beat in Baltimore is if he gets AP’s Travers trip.
I’m curious if others see something else.
This is exactly the point PDub, speed dont get much cheaper than he already faced in the Derby, unless you want to enter a stakes quality 6F horse.
A word to the new folks who have been drawn to the board during triple crown, raw time discussion is an EXTREMELY foolish way to handicap, and when you use raw times in your posts to position your question or make a point, it ruins your credibility.
You won\'t find a more perfect example of this point that this year\'s Derby. I\'ve actually seen morons on Twitter and other forums like Pace Advantage putting forth the opinion that because Justify got the 2nd slowest time of the last 70 years that he\'s not a good horse. Look at the figure TG gave him compared to other Derby winners. They saw thru those extra 3 seconds it took this year\'s Derby to finish, and if you want to move out of beginner mode, you need to as well.
TGJB likes to use the analogy of running on dry sand at the beach vs running on wet sand near the water\'s edge. This surface, after 3 inches of constant rain, was like trying to run the race WHILE INSIDE the frigging ocean (hyperbole when you consider the track is not all sand, but clay and dirt add to the slime factor and the point still stands). This track surface may have set an all-time Derby low for energy return, and was clearly very tiring as some talented horses finished the race 3 full seconds slower than average horses did in prior fast track years.
what will be interesting to see is if the track was so exhausting that none of the runners who put forth legit efforts will be able to duplicate it in 2 weeks. If Justify does, he will be that much more impressive of a horse, especially when considering the off-track Derby to Preakness stats someone posted in a different thread. If Justify loses, it won\'t be because of a rabbit, it will be because he couldn\'t handle the efforts he\'s had to put out the last 2 months.
If you want to see further examples of someone looking like a complete fool discussing raw times, find the threads about a poster named \"LoneF\" on the PaceAdvantage board. CJ from Timeform tried to politely explain to him how dumb he was being and how figure makers look at this stuff, but if you aren\'t direct with this type of stupidity, I don\'t think there\'s any way other people will learn from it.
Usually, you can\'t change the mind of the original poster, but there are so many other people reading, if you truly want to help them be better handicappers, direct feedback on concepts like raw time is the best way to get the point across to lurkers.
I also remember getting into an epic twitter argument with some guy who said there was no way Goldencents would lose a few years back because his 9F raw time (over what was back then an extremely glib Santa Anita surface, no longer is) was a full second better than anyone else in the field. To him, and people like him, I say:
\"Welcome to the pools\"
Thanks for the respectful, non-condescending post. It must be tough going through life with all the answers.
I never try to get into debates or change these people\'s mind.
I find it easier just to take there $$..
Bottom line is whether or not Justify’s tight schedule has taken anything out of him. If not, I don’t see anyone beating him. But...
Short field so far which could lure some filler.
Justify
Bravazo
Sporting Chance
Quip
Tenfold
Diamond King(if he scratches out of the Peter Pan)
Good Magic-maybe
Lone Sailor-maybe
Givemeaminit-maybe
Pletcher doesn\'t run back on two weeks.
Instilled Regard is getting a break.
Chad doesn\'t have a lot of options with Good Magic if he isn\'t running in the Belmont(distance concerns)I suppose if they bypass Baltimore they could cut him back in the Met Mile?
I can\'t get excited about the Preakness or betting against Justify if this is what\'s running next Saturday.
No handicapping involved, but trying to crash what will be one of the largest negative show pools in history makes it a little interesting if only six go to the gate, at least for a few furlongs anyway.
He can be beat. They all can especially off an effort on 2 weeks rest. And this one has a reason to have tender feet.