I posted this originally on Youtube, since I\'m not a member here (until today). This is referring to the Audio Seminar of the Derby by Thorograph. It was requested by the moderator of the Youtube channel to post this comment here, so below is what I wrote there:
\"It\'s interesting to read the opening statement: \"Deepest and most competitive field since we started doing seminars\". Because they way the race was run, you have to think the quality of these horses is far below what\'s regarded as Derby Standard. Both Justify and Good Magic were essentially on top of a scorching pace through the first half mile. After that, the pace was slowing down, and towards the end was slowing down to almost a crawl. That both Justify and Good Magic could expend that much speed early and still have the race essentially between them at the end, despite almost walking home, says a lot about the lack of enterprise among any of the others. Off the early fractions set yesterday, you would have thought any of the early laggards with the alleged quality you assert they had would have been able to swallow up these leaders who were clearly slowing down. But no. Justify could run each quarter slower than the preceding one and still not be troubled by anybody else in the race, winning clear. That represents \"The deepest and most competitive fields since we started doing seminars\"? Really??? OK.\"
What\'s your point, That you are a contrarian?
This years crop was 1/2 the size of last years. The track got more rain than they ever had in the last 140 years on derby day and for some reason wasn\'t playing fast. Or maybe that a $10k claimers can can run the last 1/4 mile sub :24. Or maybe TAP took out the fast horse on purpose.
On the other hand I\'ve thought this year\'s crop was overhyped from the get go. But hype and promotion is what makes a Kentucky Derby. Geez, you think its the drunk women in clown hats.
Here\'s the thing, the Thorograph people don\'t take into account pace or class when making their analysis. They rely purely on their figs as the end all solution to their handicapping. I haven\'t wasted my money buying their seminars or analysis in a long time but I can imagine what they said this year was something along the lines of how a majority of the field has earned a competitive fig at some point in their careers and that makes it one of the most competitive Kentucky derby fields in a while. But the truth is that many of the figs earned were what I like to call \"fake\" figs because the pace and/or class scenario set up perfectly for the horse when it was earned and matching that fig in the Kentucky Derby is extremely unlikely. So next time you think about purchasing their seminar think again because although the figs are great, you have to use them in context. And Thorograph doesn\'t do that. In fact Thorograph has race shapes for the purpose of analyzing pace but don\'t think for a second that that even matters. Even Jerry Brown himself will say that he doesn\'t have \"time to piss away on this nonsense.\" Unfortunately horse racing is not a sport with a shortage on pretentious d-bags. And these discussion forums are full of them as well.
thebig1five Wrote:
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> Here\'s the thing, the Thorograph people don\'t take
> into account pace or class when making their
> analysis. They rely purely on their figs as the
> end all solution to their handicapping. I haven\'t
> wasted my money buying their seminars or analysis
> in a long time but I can imagine what they said
> this year was something along the lines of how a
> majority of the field has earned a competitive fig
> at some point in their careers and that makes it
> one of the most competitive Kentucky derby fields
> in a while. But the truth is that many of the figs
> earned were what I like to call \"fake\" figs
> because the pace and/or class scenario set up
> perfectly for the horse when it was earned and
> matching that fig in the Kentucky Derby is
> extremely unlikely. So next time you think about
> purchasing their seminar think again because
> although the figs are great, you have to use them
> in context. And Thorograph doesn\'t do that. In
> fact Thorograph has race shapes for the purpose of
> analyzing pace but don\'t think for a second that
> that even matters. Even Jerry Brown himself will
> say that he doesn\'t have \"time to piss away on
> this nonsense.\" Unfortunately horse racing is not
> a sport with a shortage on pretentious d-bags. And
> these discussion forums are full of them as well.
And you\'re right at the top of the list.
The seminar had the trifecta for both races in the \"A\" group. A 16/1 shot damn near won the Oaks, perhaps would have if not for the late bump that knocked her off stride. That filly was one of the 2 horses rated as the clear value.
The Derby trifecta was all \"A\" horses.
The BC seminar is consistently a money maker for me as well as many others.
Do us all a favor Mr. I just joined 4 days ago. Take a hike.
JB can speak for himself, but anyway:
A) How exactly do you look at one race, where the horses are (obviously) racing against themselves, and make a judgement about a whole different set of horses? By the way they look, the clock, the pace? It\'s almost like it would be better to have some sort of mathematical-ish number that measures velocity. What to call it . . . ..?
B) It was hardly only TG that made this assessment.
C) The seminar judgement, I\'m guessing, was made before the Derby was run.
D) The assessment, I\'m guessing, was made based on the 100 or so races the horses ran, in comparison to the thousand or so races of all the horses in those races. Or, we could just go with the Derby.
E) The track was all over the place. The allowance horses in the opening two races must have been the best, because they went the the 7F faster than the Grade 2 later in the day, and the mile race went a couple of seconds faster than the Pat Day mile. Or, maybe sealing the track did God knows what.
F) This is the farthest any of the them have run. Maybe you think it\'s silly to make judgments about a crop before the Derby, but then it\'s also silly to make that judgment after an anomaly of a race. We should wait two years, or something.
G) A bunch of horses did make up a bunch of ground - IR, Jack, Hofburg, even Audible. Just not enough to catch the top two.
By the numbers, it was easily the deepest crop - and it had the quickest ever runner coming in.
Q- red boarding and silly criticism isn’t well received on this site. But, on behalf of TGraph customers everywhere we hereby give you the opportunity â€"indeed, we implore you- to post your picks and analysis for the entire Preakness, Belmont day, travers, and Breeders cup cards BEFORE they are run and we can evaluate your acumen. How about it?
I second that E motion!!
HAHAHA thanks for the laugh. So did you ever figure out the mystery of those historic first fractions?
LoL pretentious
Having Justify, Good Magic, and Audible in the trifecta was the easy part. Didn\'t need to spend extra money on a seminar for that combo. But how about Instilled Regard in the super? He was one who took some finding. Did you throw him out after he finished 4th in the Santa Anita derby? Hmmm...what was his fig? Was he too slow when he tried to run down Justify on a loose easy lead?
And there\'s the pretentiousness I was talking about. Apparently I joined 4 days ago and I\'m not fit to comment. Ok. LoL
My apologies for offending you. But I don\'t pretend to be a dirt bag.
For those who haven\'t seen the seminar, Paul will put it up here for review, and I\'ll let the work speak for itself.
Perfect timing. Yet another pretentious type who mocks someone for trying to predict the early pace of the derby. The mystery was in Thorograph\'s race shape figs. And even Jerry Brown couldn\'t explain it so I moved on. Just curious though, did the seminar predict a 22.24 first quarter and a 45.77 half mile? Ultimately I predicted a fast pace and figured Justify would survive on talent, with either Audible, Good Magic, or Bolt finishing 2nd, the same 3 combined with a few closers coming in 3rd, and either Hofburg, Instilled Regard, My Boy Jack, or Lone Sailor finishing 4th. I got lucky that the lower priced closers had troubled trips and Instilled Regard at 85-1 had a clean trip. Hit the super for almost $20,000. How\'d you do?
Incoming...
Ambiguous...
Only to you. Redboarding is frowned upon here, if you didn’t post it before the race as far as people here are concerned you didn’t have it.
Redboarding with not so much of a ticket or an opinion of the race prior to it being run and you hit the super..
Come on dude really?
If you feel like that about TG why are you here?
Red boarding is not in good form unless the red boarder lost in a bad beat. Please post all selections pre-race.
Guaranteed you didn\'t hit super, never post but been reading a while. Every post pre race post was awful by this guy and sounds like you struck out not getting the seminar most likely. Go away.
Thank you TG. Seminar was awesome
Good luck. Thx, Scott
Bigfiveguy,
I\'m surprised no one has pointed this out to you yet. But as I understand it, the TG Race Shapes are not intended to be used as a pace predictor. Rather, they are designed to be used as a predictor for how a race will set up to give a better understanding of which horses are more or less likely to be given a ground saving trip. You can read this in the TG Intro section regarding Race Shapes. It specifically says,
\"This enables the handicapper to evaluate how a race will
set upâ€"for example, whether a horse drawn outside has several horses with
a similar running style inside him, in which case he could be caught wide.\"
So what you have been doing is posting about stuff that has no relevance to the product whatsoever. You are buying a product and trying to make it do something it does not even purport to be trying to do. It\'s like buying a hot dog and getting pissed at it because it isn\'t a steak.
So I would suggest that you take some time to understand the product before you purchase it.
Same for the seminar. Only in this case, please buy it and watch it before you start trash talking it. This year it did a very good job of doping out the win contenders and helping people understand how to use the TG product effectively. In the KY Derby, the only horse it recommended keying up and down in the verticals took 2nd and it was not the favorite.
And save the red boarding altogether no matter what you buy or how you use it.
I was going with taking a Shakespeare course and complaining they’re not doing Dickens, but the hot dog thing works. And it works for the Q guy too, re the seminar.
It always seems that the posters who bitch the most were losers. Why would anyone take the time to send that post if they won $19K? I\'d still be...well, somewhere.
Figs were great, seminar mostly helpful. Crushed the early part before the slop. One of my 5 best days no doubt. I like Bill Mott a lot. A whole lot, and that is why I particularly love the TR stats.
Wonder Gadot did not receive much love on TG analysis in her previous race, but man she really stood out to me, even in a narrow loss paid great.
A really nice weekend and I, for one, appreciated the product being much well in advance of Oaks/Derby day. Best to all...especially Alan.
I have not seen the accurate figures for this, but by just comparing the available purchasing prices of this years field vs last years field I added it up to about 3,5 M for last years field, and about 9 M for this years field (a few more horses were lacking this information on the sheets last year). The trifecta this year cost 2 M, last year 830 000. Is that \"class\" enough for you? The contestants in this years field ran faster, better in every conceivable way leading up to the derby. The trainers talk have been much bigger this year around. I think it\'s very hard to make a decent case for this not having been a very strong and deep field. That said they were probably purchased and trained to be race horses, and not swimmers.. It still produced a most spectacular winning performance, right up there competing with Big Brown for the best I\'ve ever seen, all things considered. Isn\'t it now that the lightly raced-\"caveat\" should begin to kick in in Justify\'s favor? I mean if he\'s still learning how to race..
And Good Magic, will he even run in the Belmont given how he flattened out in the stretch on Saturday? A quality horse, no doubt, but I wouldn\'t have had too much faith in him improving over the longer distance..
And I guess they won\'t risk Audible getting in the way for the possible Triple Crown winner either..?
There\'s some long prices to be had on Mendelssohn to win the classic this fall, I think that is a race that would suit him a lot better. Looks a decent antepost bet. But I doubt he\'ll be back before then?
I might try to find a saver for my triple crown bet on Belmont day, but I don\'t really think I\'ll need to.. (it\'s not redboarding, it\'s actually my only prediction in this years derby season on this board). Still a lot that could go wrong of course..! ( https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/No_Justify_wasnt_lame_after_Kentucky_Derby_win_very_minor_issue_123# )
The seminar provided not only a lucrative weekend but a lifetime in knowledge about this product. Worth every penny...
i have been using thorogragh. for a long time. i still trust numbers. but analysis has been not good lately. might go back to ragozin and my own analysis
All right I gotta say it, Two days before the race you started a thread about Noble Indy\'s early pace in the Rebel, a race he wasn\'t even in? Now you\'re touting a five digit score and bragging about finding the longest price on the board?
BTW Your posts seemed to indicate you were on Magnum Moon? What made you change your mind?
Trips. The top two had clean trips. The rest of the pack literally got mud in their eyes, faces, noses and throats, not to mention the herding they endured for most of the race. A real testament to the quality of Audible who, through all of a nightmare trip, still put in a good run in the end. I’d like to see him in Baltimore.
Speaking of the seminar? I\'ve been jonesing for 2 days.
No one wants to lay out all their combinations and hear they covered too many or hear you bonehead, how can you not spread! For me, its normally the latter. But if one is going to crow, at least have the courtesy to go on the record with your winner.
If I were to immerse in this season, one of my lines of inquiry would be Baffert betting favorites post Classic Victory, which I\'m about certain has already been done here. Baffert now has 5 Derbies (1 cash for me) and 6 or 7 Preaknesses. How has he historically done with favorites in the Preakness and Belmont? One could add Derby Favorites to that inquiry, but the \"established Classic win form betting favorite looks more relevant to me.) Looks to be a sample of at most 11 races. After the American Pharaoh year, I should already know this...but I don\'t.
Well, that record looks like 7-3 with established classic favorites. I assumed Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem, Point Given, Looking at Lucky and American Pharaoh were all Post Time Favorites. Pretty Impressive. (Baffert skipped Belmont with Looking at Lucky) His Achilles Heel with a horse on the grind appears to be the Belmont.
Having visited this forum hundreds of times and having purchased the seminars, I\'ve come to this conclusion. Both sides of this thread are correct. The seminar is great and very much worth the money you spend on it. And there are a lot of pretentious folk on here that post regularly. Rarely are there any discussions of TG patterns, which is what this forum should be exclusively about. Thorograph is too unique and too good for discussions about anything else. This forum is called ASK THE EXPERTS. I doubt many on here would consider themselves an expert on TG. Before I post my next sentence and advice, I\'ll be the first to say I\'ve been guilty of posting things on here that aren\'t about TG patterns. Yet my advice to others and I will attempt to follow this advice myself, is that if you post something on here, make sure it\'s solely about TG patterns of a horse, a trainer, a sire, etc and lets attempt to make each other better at using Thorograph and trying to attain that status of EXPERT even if being an expert is likely never attainable.
Based on what I\'ve read here, my suggestion to management is that, in the future, they post the seminar and analysis after the race. This should insure the desired 99+% accuracy and align itself more closely with the ex post facto betting strategies, and accompanying victory dances, that always seem to crop up on the board. This might necessitate a slight reduction in pricing, but that should be more than offset by the anticipated bump in product demand that would result from advertising a nearly 100% hit rate with product usage.
Incredible that a guy complains about a $25 seminar that hands you more handicapping detail than all other services combined. If you are a straight TG player, you were handed the ex/tri combos in both the Oaks/Derby.Been using the seminars for the big race days for 10 years or so, and find them invaluable.Also been reading the board regularly but had to post a response today.
Check the archives. They post the seminar every year.
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Check the archives. They post the seminar every
> year.
The flow chart of the thread suggests you\'re responding to me. If so, that would, suggest that I might need to find a way to include a \"sarcasm\" emoticon when I post, or probably just get new writers.
BTW- only I can hit both of those triples and still find a way to lose money on the weekend! My absolute killer was the Pat Day Mile....live to it in Pick 3 and busted my Pick 4 that I had otherwise covered. I\'m sure many had similiar experience w/ that brutal race. Keep up the good work.
Sorry. Been mentally beaten down by some of the comments in here the last couple of weeks.
Since management obviously hangs on my every word, my suggestion to management is that the next person who tries to use post-race mentions of phone calls, texts, or whatever, in order to vacate pre-race posts should be hanged, drawn, and quartered, and then what is left of him should be put on the rack, the iron maiden, and the bastinado.
dsipes Wrote:
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> Having visited this forum hundreds of times and
> having purchased the seminars, I\'ve come to this
> conclusion. Both sides of this thread are
> correct. The seminar is great and very much worth
> the money you spend on it. And there are a lot of
> pretentious folk on here that post regularly.
> Rarely are there any discussions of TG patterns,
> which is what this forum should be exclusively
> about. Thorograph is too unique and too good for
> discussions about anything else. This forum is
> called ASK THE EXPERTS. I doubt many on here
> would consider themselves an expert on TG. Before
> I post my next sentence and advice, I\'ll be the
> first to say I\'ve been guilty of posting things on
> here that aren\'t about TG patterns. Yet my advice
> to others and I will attempt to follow this advice
> myself, is that if you post something on here,
> make sure it\'s solely about TG patterns of a
> horse, a trainer, a sire, etc and lets attempt to
> make each other better at using Thorograph and
> trying to attain that status of EXPERT even if
> being an expert is likely never attainable.
I think you\'re taking the forum name a bit too literally. Many people mention patterns when discussing selections.
Taking your suggestion, I would miss out on many posts that are very informative that don\'t talk about pattern analysis. MJellish comes to mind, many others.
I would suggest that if you have a question about patterns, or are wondering why someone used a specific horse, then ask why that person used that specific horse. I\'m sure many folks would have no problem discussing patterns. I also would love to hear the reasoning behind some of the selections.
Relegating this forum to posts only related to TG patterns would make this a pretty boring board. I mean, why would you stop all of us from enjoying the outstanding posts made by Mr 4days or whatever the hell is name is.
I was wondering when you would show up. It\'s been Assertion City around here.
Finally found the Seminar. Placing it in the Sticky Threads always fools me.
Thought it was a good analysis, specifically on the 1st and 2nd and 3rd horses. Maybe a little dismissive of Hollendorfer\'s horse, as pertains to the super, if it was dismissed there, but give credit for the Tri, which was more than the vast majority.
My only issue would be with the statistics on Aiden O\' Brien which looked off the charts good. I don\'t think he Dirts much over here. Hardly at all. I\'m assuming the Seminar statistics are reflecting what he does with Turf animals. The only significant dirt race that I\'m aware of that he prevailed in was years back in the Breeder\'s Cup Juvenile with Johannesburg. (Who I think was Scat Daddys sire). Just watched a replay of that race and he caught a ding dong front end affair that he sucked up into just like a turf horse. I lost so it doesn\'t matter, but I wouldn\'t have placed Mendy in the Top Flight in a thousand years. I remember Arcangue, but at least one got odds.
Would like to know O\'Briens overall record in the Derby. I know Johannesburg was eaten alive by the pace but until Mendy, I can\'t think of another one.
2013 Lines of Battle 32-1, 7th
2012 Daddy Long Legs 26-1, 20th
2011 Master of Hounds 16-1, 5th (Yeah this one got serious hype. Forgot about that one.
2002 Johannesburg 8th
Think that\'s it. Looks to be the new Suroor to my eye...but generally if you finish about 9th or better, you can pat yourself on the back for bringing a useful horse to the Derby.
If he\'s had more starters couldn\'t come up with them.
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Sorry. Been mentally beaten down by some of the
> comments in here the last couple of weeks.
That\'s quite alright. I had mistakenly identified many other posts as sarcasm, only to discover to my amazement that they were actually written in earnest.
Sad! No redboarding then but the BEL sheets yesterday were key to the very logical 10/1 and 15/1 horses in the early P5. And then low and behold they were picked in the analysis.
T Severini Wrote:
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Looks to be the new Suroor to my
> eye.
Bin there, done that.
I\'ll wait for the rim shot and move on.
Rich Curtis Wrote:
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then what is left of him should be
> put on the rack, the iron maiden, and the
> bastinado.
I was certain that last word was a term used by my grandfather when he thought one of his opponents in briscola was cheating, which was rather ironic since a certain form of cheating was an indigenous part of the game. For those who don\'t know, briscola is an Italian card came, the primary purpose of which, at least as far as I could discern, was to see who could curse the loudest.
As to the substance of your post, I trust that I will be exempted from the guillotine (wrong board, I know) for the claim that my initial strong position against Justify was negated by a last minute side comment to the complete stranger sitting next to me in a carrel at Churchill. Unfortunately, I don\'t know his name, so I can\'t call on him to bear witness, but trust me on this one -- I absolutely nailed it.
That\'s why we have a Red Board Room on this site.
moosepalm Wrote:
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> T Severini Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> Looks to be the new Suroor to my
> > eye.
>
> Bin there, done that.
>
> I\'ll wait for the rim shot and move on.
I think I gotcha moosepalm, the young TGJB:
Rim Shot (https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+rim+shot&view=detail&mid=8226AB3A02DB237E77718226AB3A02DB237E7771&FORM=VIRE)
No Satisfaction (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUwhQyz_ups&feature=youtu.be)
But, I am officially now on record as predicting Justify\'s Reckoning. I will share at the appropriate time, in time.
T Severini Wrote:
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> --------------------------------------------------
>
> I think I gotcha moosepalm, the young TGJB:
I’d like to think he wouldn’t be terribly offended by a generalized comparison, but the “younger†will kill him.
Mjellish wrote:
\"And save the red boarding altogether no matter what you buy or how you use it.\"
Which type of redboarding do you think is worse, his type or your type?
Rich, I have no clue what you are referring to. I\'m not as witty as you. Help me understand. Far as I can remember I haven\'t posted anything about how I did on the Derby.
Oh, cool. Now that I have your definition, I am going to embrace it.
Myself, I figured that if they got out of the gate and ran their race, Justify would win, Good Magic would finish second, Audible would finish third, and Instilled Regard would finish fourth.
Now let\'s see if we can get everybody else to play by our definition.
Let the non-redboarding begin!
WTF?
You are obviously referring to my reply to Frank D\'s post. He posted that he and I had discussed Justify pre race and that both his and my opinion of Justify had changed. He invited me BY NAME to respond, and I responded to that post. That\'s it.
If that makes me a red boarder in your eyes then I dunno what else to say other than you are being very selective in how you view that post and you are trying to pick a fight with the wrong person for no reason. I haven\'t said one thing on this board about how I did on the Derby, but there are a few posters out there who know. If they want to post about it I leave that up to them.
If you still want to pick a fight with me after that then all I have to say is \"Go home and get your shine box.\"
Lol
mjellish Wrote:
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> WTF?
>
> You are obviously referring to my reply to Frank
> D\'s post. He posted that he and I had discussed
> Justify pre race and that both his and my opinion
> of Justify had changed. He invited me BY NAME to
> respond, and I responded to that post. That\'s it.
>
>
> If that makes me a red boarder in your eyes then I
> dunno what else to say other than you are being
> very selective in how you view that post and you
> are trying to pick a fight with the wrong person
> for no reason. I haven\'t said one thing on this
> board about how I did on the Derby, but there are
> a few posters out there who know. If they want to
> post about it I leave that up to them.
>
> If you still want to pick a fight with me after
> that then all I have to say is \"Go home and get
> your shine box.\"
This \"Red Board\" thing is getting ridiculous.
Many don\'t structure tickets or place a win bet and then immediately think, \"I have to go to the Thorograph board and tell everyone what I just bet.\"
I don\'t think MJ told Frank..\"Hey buddy, gotta go. I need to get this conversation on the board by post time.\"
When people take a tough beat, they want to vent a little. I did it Friday afternoon (I also posted plays before the card started, but the ticket I moaned about wasn\'t listed pre race. I\'m sure if it hit the Red Board police would have had sirens blaring).
When you win, you want to celebrate a bit. I have no problem with the guy that hit the super twice, detailing his bet structure. I have no problem with people discussing a winning ticket, after the race and not previously mentioned here, if they at least talk about why they did it.
Folks can learn things from \"Red Boarding\". Its why we have a \"Red Board\" room here.
No F’in CLUE how this string got so out of control.
All I know I was the only person on this board that posted a race day play pre-race. I get accused of red boarding . Tell me anyone on this board in the last 10 years that has posted more pre-race plays and sequences than I?
There is a whole how did you do string, I did this, I did that, none of you did a f----g thing as far as I am concerned. You did not post it pre-race. If you post a pre-race play like many do of 1,2/3,4/5,6,7/ 8,9,10 without a t-graph or other handicapping explanation as to why? You threw darts at a board for all I know.
Neither MJ or I claimed a win, did a victory dance or told you we had a life changing moment. We discussed the race a half dozen times, both like many TG players SHOULD looked to beat a 5/2 shot with 3 races who started his career 11 weeks before the country’s biggest race. There were lot’s of questions about the horse. Some were willing to pay to find out, some weren’t, some hedged.
Anyone that knows me or Uncle Bill know that we are tight. If you add up the Spa days I’ve spent with him over the years, it’s well over a year. I talk to him once a month or more throughout the year. I have 10 different guys I communicate with ask me how’s Uncle Bill.
So if a phone call from a 75 year old man who laid eyes on the wonder horse for the first time is part of a made up conspiracy ? Please go to Washington immediately because our President has lot’s of open positions to fill with your type.
Rich I will tell you this, MJ has a private clocker friend, they played together for years. He is all over the country and obviously MJ respects his opinion. He was in Cali all winter and observed Justify very closely. On Wednesday before the Derby I received an email from MJ. “Justify just may be all that†his friend whom he trusts talked him onto the horse. After watching closely his last workout with another pretty good eye for horse actions he was convinced.
Handicappers are not allowed to change their mind? No one ever loved or was negative about a Derby horse a month before and made a different play on Derby Day?
Neither MJ nor I claimed anything after the fact. I simply stated that a respected member of this board and myself amended our opinion of Justify before the race. Both of us posted questions and reasons in the weeks before to try and beat a favorite in a 20 horse field.
What anyone won or lost is NO ONE’S F’in Business....
Neither of us jumped into the we did it string. Maybe it would take a bit more than a Derby superfecta to change either life?
I will say one thing about his play. NOTHING it’s not mine nor anyone else’s business.
Hey Frank, you\'re getting worked up over anonymous posts on a message board. Only I have reason to do that.
Everybody take it easy. If I can get over Velasquez\' ride in the Oaks you guys can get over this stuff.
Clearly some red boarding is more egregious than others. However, I\'ve rarely seen an instance where it advances the ball in terms of the knowledge base of those perusing the message board. Invariably, it is self-congratulatory or tries to cover sins discussed before the race, but not publicly countered before the race. If that vibe gains purchase here with the masses, and is tolerated by the host, then that\'s fine. But, let\'s be clear about what it is. I don\'t post my picks before the race because no one in his right mind would want to know what they are, and I don\'t post after, because win, lose or draw, it would provide zero illumination in terms of handicapping expertise, and if I ever do crush it, I don\'t need my ego massaged by spiking the ball in the end zone in front of the three or four people on here I actually know.
I am going to agree with P-Dub on this one, and, take it farther. I wish we had MORE redboarding with these loose \"rules\" - obviously make it after the race, and leave out any dollar amount wagered/won. I am not interested in the location of the decimal point in the wager size. But I would learn something from how posters like MJ use the data from a seminar or daily sheets to structure potentially profitable wagers. In the derby this year with things being straight forward for the most part number wise, how did people use the seminar for instance to maximize the wager? How did you defensively use the seminar tidbits to potentially cover possible outcomes yet maximize profit if your opinion using TG and the products turns out to be correct? Otherwise why use a premium product like TG if you have not got the experience to construct a wager set that makes the purchase worthwhile? There have seemingly been lots of good folks here at one time previously who either rarely or never post any more, and some seemed to be put off by this redboarding issue. But for me I want guys like MJ, or Helmers, or Covello, Frank or some of other folks in your Hall of Fame to offer insight in how they ply their trade so to speak. Or how about a TG seminar on Sunday mornings saying here is what we discussed on Saturday, how could we have turned this into a great day at the windows. As it is, by the time many people figure out who might have an edge, they have very little clue how to maximize it. So if that earns me a \"red hat\" at the next TG seminar for promoting such an idea, I quote Richie loosely \"at my age I\'m about 20 years past worrying about such things\". And I know, the archives have wagering process items, but, seems to me anyway, that any person who goes strictly by that might be able to grind out a profit, but today\'s wagering platform seems to have bypassed this train long ago? So I say bring on the redboarding - it will be of more value knowledge wise than the conspiracy trails about jocks, horses, trainers and other issues that dominate some of posts.
bb
The strategy I now use to construct my superfecta tickets I learned from reading about other player\'s big scores after the Derby, and the vast majority didn\'t post their plays on any online forum before the race. I guess it was redboarding by them, but for me it was a learning experience and I was appreciative that they shared their story. If anything, I would think it would be a big positive for players using Thorograph (or any other resource) to show how they did, and share what resources/strategies they used to construct their tickets. It could maybe help us all in the long run, as well as bring in new customers to purchase the resource.
I\'ll just say that it would have been nice if the super was .10 instead of 1.00.
prist Wrote:
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> I\'ll just say that it would have been nice if the
> super was .10 instead of 1.00.
I could imagine the lines at windows and machines if they had .10 supers. On track and off track.
Why don\'t they just insist that betting slips, pre filled, must be used for .10 supers.
That would pretty much eliminate anyone standing there for an hour
Frank D. wrote:
\"Handicappers are not allowed to change their mind? No one ever loved or was negative about a Derby horse a month before and made a different play on Derby Day?\"
Well done, Frank. You have penetrated all the noise and obfuscation and gotten right to the core of the matter: my firm belief that horseplayers are not allowed to change their minds.
Airnate012 Wrote:
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> The strategy I now use to construct my superfecta
> tickets I learned from reading about other
> player\'s big scores after the Derby, and the vast
> majority didn\'t post their plays on any online
> forum before the race. I guess it was redboarding
> by them, but for me it was a learning experience
> and I was appreciative that they shared their
> story. If anything, I would think it would be a
> big positive for players using Thorograph (or any
> other resource) to show how they did, and share
> what resources/strategies they used to construct
> their tickets. It could maybe help us all in the
> long run, as well as bring in new customers to
> purchase the resource.
Nate, first of all congrats for your Derby score, and for your good-natured acceptance of Richiebee\'s well-intentioned ribbing. You raise an interesting point here, and since the topic of red boarding has been beaten into the ground, I\'d like to change the conversation, though not completely divorced from the topic.
To state the obvious, whatever you\'ve found that works for you, go with it. Anything I\'m about to say is not meant to talk you out of anything, for no other reason than I\'m the last person who should be offering any kind of handicapping advice to anyone. But I will share some of my thoughts on handicapping analysis that we find on message boards.
On this board, if Mathcapper had a big score, and made it known to the board, which I\'m fairly certain he wouldn\'t, I would pay very close attention to anything he says from a statistical basis that underlies his approach. He\'s proven his bona fides on that front, numerous times, though not in a handicapping context. But, if he did, I\'m all in. Likewise, if Christian Hellmers won another big contest, and shared his approach and strategies, I\'d hang on every word, even if that included references to mystical Hinduism, or especially if they did, but that\'s another conversation. And if Rich Curtis brought down the house with a bet, and wrote about it, I would take anything he said on any aspect of handicapping straight to the bank, However, if he actually wrote a syllable about that you can be certain he\'s only doing it because someone\'s pointing a gun at his head, and eyeing him with bad intent.
It\'s like picking out a financial advisor. You want to know with whom you\'re dealing and more about them than the fact that they had just made an extremely lucrative play in the market. Their methodology may make sense to you, but there is also the issue of applicability. Will they be able to do that in other scenarios? In a racing analogy, if someone structures a Derby bet that leads to a big score, wouldn\'t you want to know how successful that approach has been in prior Derbies, and have some tangible evidence of it? Or want to know about its applicability in other races where there aren\'t 20 horses doing something that they\'ve never done before?
There probably isn\'t anything contained in the description of a big score that hasn\'t been written already by someone who has credentials that he or she has put in the public domain. Conversely, I have an inherent distrust of message boards. I have no idea if this happens here, but on other kinds of boards, there are posters who fraudulently pose as \"insiders\" because, for whatever reason, being a big deal on a message board really floats their boat.
Let me illustrate by personal example. I\'m a big pick-5 player. I put in a fair amount of money, and have a pretty consistent framework of analysis and structure of play. I am also a pretty good writer. Not Richiebee good, but good enough that I could create a very plausible message board persona that suggests I\'m a pretty big deal in the game, and do so without a great deal of embellishment of facts that are part of my racing experience. I could drop names, or events I attend, or boxes I sit in, and while I might sound like a pompous ass, I could also be reasonably conversant in analysis, pattern reading, workout tips, etc. to create the illusion that I was somebody worth listening to.
So, within the past 3-4 months, I had a couple of really big scores. Yes, a very gratuitous red board, but let me finish. I could have had a friend do the dirty work of disclosing this, and on top of the faux board persona I\'ve created, I might look like a serious player, and yes, have something to offer. However ... if you were to go back not too far in time, you would reach a point where those two scores were completely offset by losses, and the further you went, the worse that trend line looks. But, hey, I had a big score and I talk like a serious player, so, absent information on my entire betting history, I must be somebody who can advance the ball of handicapping insight. Well, I\'m here to tell you I can\'t. I hit big on occasion, and chase bigger, often. And unless I know at least that much about anybody else, such as the individuals I mentioned above, I have no interest in reading about one big score, or even a couple. Again, that\'s my approach. You\'ve gleaned some useful information that\'s worked for you, so that litmus test trumps my skepticism, but I do think it\'s a topic that deserves to have its tires kicked, and apologize for the length it took me to do so.