According to Thorograph Race Shapes, Magnum Moon ran the 3rd fastest opening quarter mile (2 furlongs) among all other derby entrants in a 9 furlong prep, the Arkansas Derby in his case.
But according to BRIS Race Shapes Magnum Moon had an easy lead going 7 lengths slower than average for the first 4 furlongs and 9 lengths slower than average for the first 6 furlongs.
So what\'s causing the discrepancy? Is it simply that he went fast for 2 furlongs and then slowed down considerably over the next half mile? Or perhaps the wind played a major factor? What do the experts think?
I dispute your assertions. Average of what, specifically. Two G1 races @ OP.
The average as defined by BRISNET when making their figs.
Found this online:
\"The BRIS Race Shapes measure how fast the leader ran relative to the average leader time for the race\'s final time. The faster the leader\'s pace, the higher the BRIS Race Shape (eg. +7). The slower the leader\'s pace, the lower the BRIS Race Shape (eg. -7).\"
\"The BRIS Race Shapes use a fixed scale of two (2) points-per-length. For example, a \"+6\" Race Shape represents a pace which is three (3) lengths faster than normal.
\"The first BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the first call (2f call for most sprints; and 4f call for most routes). The second BRIS Race Shape value corresponds to the second call (4f call for most sprints; and 6f call for most routes).\"
In the Arkansas Derby the BRIS race shape was (-15 , -19). So approximately 7 lengths slower than normal at the 4 furlong point and approximately 9 lengths slower than normal at the 6 furlong point.
Maybe I\'m missing something. But that\'s why I\'m asking for others\' opinions. Assuming the BRIS and TG figs are correct, why the discrepancy?
Not trying to be an ass here
Maybe that would be a better question in the Brisnet forum.
Just saying
Good Luck
It\'s actually a question about the possible reasons for the discrepancy between Thorograph race shapes and BRISnet. So I think this is appropriate place to ask.
Also, I have great respect for thorograph\'s figs, so I\'m wondering if they had some piece of data that was used to come up with their fig that would explain why they had Magnum Moon\'s first quarter mile much faster than most people would assume. According to thorograph, only Enticed and Promises Fulfilled had faster opening quarter miles in their 9 furlong preps than Magnum Moon.
I think there\'s an explanation with the RS that tells how we make them. I have no idea how anybody else makes theirs.
I read that and it makes sense but my question is specific to the Arkansas Derby. I think everyone sees the Arkansas Derby as having a very slow early pace but thorograph has it as the 3rd fastest (for the first quarter mile at least). Can you can share the numerical data that was used, or at least give some insight as to why this was the case?
As I said before, I highly respect thorograph figs and right now I\'m trying to decide whether Magnum Moon\'s pace in the Arkansas Derby was much faster than most people think. Depending on that answer, my handicapping changes dramatically.
The numerical data used is exactly what it says in the RS explanation.
According to the explanation it says \"We have taken the first quarter mile run by every horse in their recent races, and adjusted each horse’s time for track speed, wind, weight carried, and ground loss, if any. We then gather the data for all the horses running on a race card, and further adjust those times based on the recent speed of the track they are running over today. The resulting adjusted quarter times give the handicapper the ability to form an idea of the early speed of each horse, and the early pace of each race.\"
Based on the four factors we know weight carried was 122, which was more than some of the other contenders carried that day, and we know ground loss was zero as he had the rail early on. Other fig makers have the early pace as very slow, but thorograph has it fairly quick. So we can assume weight played a part. But what about the wind? Or perhaps the track was playing slow that day? Which factor(s) made thorograph\'s early pace fig so much faster than the others?
Thanks,
Andrew
Looking more closely into the race perhaps I can answer my own question.
Arkansas Derby Incremental Fractions were:
2f: 23.34
4f: 25.26
6f: 24.79
8f: 24.48
9f: 11.99
Being that the first 2f was the quickest and next two 2f fractions were the slowest maybe both the thorograph pace figs AND Brisnet pace figs are correct because thorograph uses the first 1/4 mile in their figs and Brisnet uses the 1/2 mile and 3/4 mile fractions.
B15
Glad you were able to resolve your own conundrum.
NCTONY