Any opinions on whether Mendelssohn will regress off that huge TG fig and, if so, by how much? Does the addition of Lasix mitigate a regression? Haven\'t seen this discussed much by the Thorographers.
My only comment would be that a visit to the most excellent and reasonably
priced TG archives would help you jump start a rational discourse on
Mendelssohn\'s chances, coming to Louisville as he is with a rather imposing TG #.
Since you do not impress me as much of a self starter, let me give you a nudge
on your quest for knowledge: you might either use the archives to see what
became of runners who came in with the fastest TG # in a prep, or you might
investigate how many Derby winners prevailed despite \"bouncing\" off of their
final prep (Whatever happened to the \"engineered bounce\" in the final prep?).
A word about Mendelssohn: an interesting article I read discussed the
difficulty handicappers and figure makers have when being put in the position
of having to evaluate a tour de force performance such as Mendelssohn\'s. The
article also mentioned Secretariat\'s Belmont and a flat mile run by the great
Frankel where he maintained a large margin over his competition for the entire
race; this reminded me of a conversation here and elsewhere which has raised
the possibility that large margins of victory might lead to distortion of
figures.
In any case, 6 days out, Mendelssohn, Good Magic and Bolt D\'Oro will certainly
be on multi-race tickets; Team Pletcher and Justify will not, all of which
might change after I study the field in earnest when entries are drawn.
Richiebee
Expert Emeritus
Mendelssohn\'s #s are a tough read because all his 2YO races are on turf & his 3YO debut was on synthetic, so we only have 1 dirt number.
One thing that is quite evident from looking at sheets of 3YOs on dirt & 3YOs on turf is that the stakes type ones who can run well on both surfaces put up much lower numbers when they\'re running on dirt than on turf, so his 2YO numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Now some of the numbers I\"m about to quote can be a function in part of development as the horse gets older, but it\'s very obvious that dirt #s are faster than turf #s for these 3YOs. Just compare the 3YO turf stake #s this Friday at CD to the Derby horses if you have any doubt about this statement.
For examples, look at some of the horses in this year\'s Derby (or AEs): Mendelssohn, 11.75 points lower on dirt than his turf top, Flameaway 6.75 points lower than his turf top, My Boy Jack 6.75 point top improvement turf to dirt, Combatant 9.75 better top dirt from turf (only one turf race as a FTS), Snapper Sinclair 7.5 point top improvement turf to dirt, Blended Citizen 4.75 better dirt top than turf and 2.75 better dirt than poly, Reride (only 1 turf race) 6.75 top improvement when on dirt.
I can\'t say if he\'ll bounce or not, but if he doesn\'t he\'ll win this by 5-10 lengths. There\'s no case I can make for leaving him off tickets when playing horizontally or vertically. Right now he\'s my second choice behind Enticed. I\'m going to go heavily into Oaks/Derby doubles with my keys as Coach Rocks as my A in the Oaks, and the 2 favorites Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou as my Bs. My Derby As are Enticed and Mendelssohn, with Bs Good Magic, Audible & Justify and Cs Vino Rosso & Bolt D\'Oro. For tris and supers my Ds are Hofburg & My Boy Jack, but my Ds won\'t be in the Oaks Derby DD.
A bit early for me to say, since I haven\'t looked at the #s and won\'t until the post positions are drawn on Tuesday, but Mendelssohn most reminds me of Barbaro, who like M had already established a strong turf line and exploded in his first start on dirt, in the Florida Derby.
I think it\'s a fairly rare phenomenon among legitimate Derby contenders over the past two decades.
If he is indeed first Lasix and he doesn\'t draw some absurd post position, he looks like a very scary horse to me.
Barbaro ran on dirt prior to the FL Derby he won the Holy Bull
I researched the archives back to 1997. Basically, if you\'re solely a stats person, Mendelssohn has a tall wall to climb in the Derby. Since \'97, only 3 horses have won who came in with the best TG fig in their last prep. Those three winners however had a lesser spread between their figs 2 races back to their final prep than Mendelssohns, whose fig 2 back to his last fig in Dubai is one of the most significant spreads since 1997. But, it could be argued Mendelssohn is unique with Barbaro being the closest to compare too. To me (and I wonder what the rest of you think), I\'m waiting on Mr. Brown\'s seminar to see how Aiden O\'Brien has done in these situations. I\'m guessing this world class trainer is able to maintain or improve the form for his top class stock even after a huge performance and when shipping.
O\'Brien did bring Master of Hounds in 2011. Ran him in the Juvenile Turf at CD in 2010. Finished 2nd to a southern hemisphere 3yo filly in the UAE derby. Was lasix on for the juvy turf and then for the derby. Shipped in Tues or Wed before race. Garrett Gomez was rider, think he had one or two dirt mounts on the undercard. Horse ran 5th, best finish for a UAE derby starter and IMO would have hit the board had he not ducked into the Shackleford dead rail for the stretch run. Oh well. FWIW.
The only point I would make with regards to this comparison is that Master of Hounds\' UAE Derby was contested over a synthetic surface; Mendelssohn\'s blowout win was on a dirt track.
Here is a link to the article I referenced in a previous post discussing the difficulty of evaluating dominant performances:
https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/secretariat-frankel-hawk-wing-mendelssohn-freak-wins-are-virtually-unrateable/
My overactive imagination can\'t stop thinking about what happens when Rayya jumps forward 4 points with first lasix, first Baffert and gets into the money on Friday.
If Rayya jumps forward 4pts, she wins for fun. Moving forward 2pts with a ground saving trip probably puts her in the money.
Patrick
Tav:
When Rayya does this and I\'ve had this thought that she very well may do that.....here is what happens:
\"Mendelssohn and jockey Ryan Moore enter gate 16 as the 9-2 second choice as we are almost ready for the start of the 144th Kentucky Derby with just 4 horses left to load.\"
(My friends say I\'m the ultimate jinx so watch him draw post 1 now).
I remember discussions from years past about synthetic and turf horses trying dirt for the first time running new tops. These were always ones to avoid the 2nd time on dirt. With synthetic almost gone now that old angle has gone away as well.
Remember all those Baffert horses shipping East back then?
I did neglect to mention the surface change. It was more a point that other than bringing the rider along this time, O\'Brien is following the same blueprint.
As JB pointed out immediately after the race, and in the link as well, what was Moore doing the last hundred yards or so? While visually impressive, he was slowing significantly vs. the World Cup if you compare the two as they seem to have in the article and elsewhere. At the projected odds, I\'ll probably play against him getting the distance 2nd time dirt, but reserving final decision pending seminar.
Eyes on Rayya. The article has her and Reride going backwards as it seems the backpedaling Beyer does. TG has them pairing. Does her performance in the Oaks foretell anything other than maybe moving the line slightly?
I\'m going to not draw too many conclusions from Rayya\'s race, good or bad, for a multitude of reasons.
A) she\'s a filly
B) this is her 5th race this year
C) her pattern is completely different
D) she\'s been on dirt all this time
I know people will want to dumb down the analysis and draw hard parallels on the \"coming from Dubai and adding Lasix\" angle, but it seems foolish to draw hard conclusions about what Mendy might do based on what Rayya does do.
Agree 100% with Tread.
As for her chances in the Oaks you\'d have to think Baffert will move her up a couple of points to play her.
I\'m playing Mendelssohn to X out in the Derby regardless of what the filly does.
Too much of an explosion to an extremely fast # going from grass/poly to dirt even if he is bred for it.
I do like some longer priced horses underneath so I might play a small tri saver with Mend on top just in case he\'s some sort of a freak but I really don\'t want him.
dsipes Wrote:
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> Any opinions on whether Mendelssohn will regress
> off that huge TG fig and, if so, by how much?
> Does the addition of Lasix mitigate a regression?
> Haven\'t seen this discusse8d much by the
> Thorographers.
=====================
Wild Syn had a monster number coming off the 95 BG on the most insane inside speed favoring KEE day I ever witnessed. That joint over there where Mendelssohn ran was the same way for 2 months straight. Like Wild Syn, I\'m tossing Mendelssohn for for fun.
But 18 lengths? And a track record at the distance? And faster than some of the older horses in the Dubai World Cup? Can\'t all be because of the bias.
Rayya jumping 4 points would have been ridiculous. Calm down.
thebig1five Wrote:
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> Rayya jumping 4 points would have been ridiculous.
> Calm down.
You just joined this forum 3 days ago.
You might want to be the person that \"calms down\".
Keep in mind that Mind Your Biscuits rallied to win from the back and down the the middle of the track.
You can certainly make a case for tossing Mendelssohn, that last number was an atomic explosion.
But as I have at times learned the hard way, and as several very sharp people on this board have also stated, its always dangerous to leave the horse with the fastest number off your tickets.
Obviously there are times that a pattern will allow you to dismiss the fastest horse, but we really don\'t know what this guy will do. He gets Lasix, has an accomplished trainer, has a forwardly placed style that should keep him out of trouble provided he breaks alertly and doesn\'t get bumped around out of the gate, and of course that last race.
He could bounce a bit and still win. I\'m putting tris and supers together and its getting expensive. My gut says he doesn\'t run his race and finishes off the board. I think there are enough talented horses in here that if he doesn\'t fire his best shot, he will miss everything.
And after the race, it will all seem so easy when he runs out and we all say......see, that number knocked him out. It was SO obvious.
I still have no idea what to do with him, but leaning towards a toss.
he reminds me of Bellamy Road just can\'t shake that feeling..
Mende is off all my tickets and it wasn\'t a very difficult decision, imo.
I played him defensively but overall that pattern sure reminds me of a Pletcher horse coming in.
Has bounce written all over him,when 15 of 16 horse’s win on the front end just May be a track bias
He\'s gone from my tickets also.
Keying Hofburg to move forward another couple points.
Not a fan of Mendolssohn but cant get ad\'s pattern from last year, a 9 point move coming into the derby, a 5 pt top from his 2 yo then a new top in the derby. GM to explode and win by open lengths.
One day, maybe today, a Saudi horse is going to come all the way over here and win this thing. When it happens, it will be without me. You win some Derbies, you lose some Derbies. Gotta see it first.
Never was nor will be a Trainer, but for me, bringing a \"Scat Daddy / Tricky Creek\" to Louisville without a real workout on the track is negligent. But that\'s how they do it there. That\'s not how its done here. Not yet anyway.
In was a big desert margin in fair time. A la Bellamy Road, but further. I didn\'t take the time to try and dissect those Desert Races because they\'ve never proven merit to invest that time. That\'s TGraphs job for now and I assume they assigned a number so big that its factored Bounce Territory. That\'s a big assumption, cuz I am totally out of the loop.
For what it\'s worth, at my peril, I will be working the other Scat Daddy\'s out of the money as well. I refuse to believe a mid distance at best sire suddenly went Classic. To my end Pletcher\'s vet slipped Scatty the needle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
I don’t like Scat Daddy either as a classic distance sire but sadly, classic distance breeding has been out of style for a while now in American dirt racing. It’s all about milers. Unfortunately, we saw another miler moved up over a wet sealed track. Doesn’t tell you a thing about distance potential. A sham.
\"I don’t like Scat Daddy either as a classic distance sire but sadly, classic distance breeding has been out of style for a while now in American dirt racing. It’s all about milers. Unfortunately, we saw another miler moved up over a wet sealed track. Doesn’t tell you a thing about distance potential. A sham.\"
It\'s been extremely entertaining watching (especially on twitter) all the people making excuses for not liking Justify better and trying to trump up some bias as an explanation of why he ran well.
In the Derby, almost all the horses who were in the back half of the field in the early calls finished in the top half of the field.
In the surrounding dirt races, the 10th and 13th, horses that were 1-2-3 at the 1/2 mile did not make the exacta and there are several other examples of backwardly placed horses getting up by finish.
People trying to argue a bias are fooling themselves with their own sour grapes.
The horse has run negative figures at 9 and 10F. He\'s not \"just a miler\"
Richie, you of all people should have known that Mendelssohn always preferred slow movements to anything prestissimo!
Well...My primary dislike was 5-2, but he was able to wear down the only other speed and that set him up pretty nice. If he doesn\'t break or take to the slop, fair additional probabilities, then both favs are dead in the payouts. I\'ll check his back numbers with a Red Board now, but I\'m pretty sure that Santa Anita Derby spelled bounce but for Baffert. I have not liked Scat Daddy\'s but a Scat in Bafferts hands is a whole nuther matter.
My strategy is rarely to just win a Derby. I want to clobber it.
I thought Scatifying the two favorite Scats was the way to go. It didn\'t work out with one of them.
T Severini Wrote:
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> Well...My primary dislike was 5-2, but he was able
> to wear down the only other speed and that set him
> up pretty nice. If he doesn\'t break or take to the
> slop, fair additional probabilities, then both
> favs are dead in the payouts. I\'ll check his back
> numbers with a Red Board now, but I\'m pretty sure
> that Santa Anita Derby spelled bounce but for
> Baffert. I have not liked Scat Daddy\'s but a Scat
> in Bafferts hands is a whole nuther matter.
>
> My strategy is rarely to just win a Derby. I want
> to clobber it.
>
> I thought Scatifying the two favorite Scats was
> the way to go. It didn\'t work out with one of
> them.
T Sev,
You can still clobber a race with a 5/2 shot, in a large field, with tons of public money in the pools. Not all 5/2 shots are the same. I hated Always Dreaming on the Oaks undercard. I liked Justify quite a bit, as I did GM and Audible.
This great game has been my favorite wagering hobby for 30 years. I handicap sports every day, but nothing comes close to putting money through the windows and watching these magnificent animals race. If I could only wager on one sport for the rest of my life, it would be horse racing. This coming from a guy that wins at sports wagering, but has been a losing player over his lifetime betting on horses (although I\'m better than I used to be). Thats how much I love horse racing.
One of the things I was told years ago by a very successful player, is that being successful is 25% handicapping and 75% constructing tickets. He is spot on.
One of the things I like to do after a day or weekend of racing is take note of what happened, specifically with wagering. I look at my contenders and how I used them, look at the results, and try to understand how could I have constructed a winning ticket. I take notes, and keep a file of specific bet structures. Tris and supers, Pick 3/4.
While I didn\'t cash the big one, I was damn close. One thing I started doing is hitting all in the 4 spot on supers. Yes, it costs a bit of money. But I don\'t do it every time, I do it when a big score is possible and I can narrow the main contenders... 14 and 20 horse fields, with a sloppy track tossed in, fits the bill....and I do it when my bankroll allows. Usually Big Cap weekend, BC weekend, Derby Day..days when my bankroll is at its max.
I liked Justify, GM, and Audible. Mend a toss, Bolt playable underneath from JB\'s \"A\" group. Good Magic was my top choice, so that was the one I targeted with a Super wager.
GM over Aud/Justify/Bolt in 2/3 and the all button 4th. Cost $102 if I recall properly. Already lost a chunk of money by that point, and didn\'t want to spend another $204 doing the same with the other 2. It was the right idea, just targeted the wrong contender.
My long winded point is that this race could have been clobbered with that 5/2 shot on top.
Last comment. Once again JB\'s information and numbers were excellent. While I just missed huge scores both days, TG put me in a position to have a chance and that is all you could really ask for. I don\'t need a guy to take me by the hand, walk me to the window, and tell me what to do. Part of what makes this so exhilarating is taking the info and figuring it out yourself.
Looking forward to the Preakness and hopefully a Justify win, then the incredible electricity of a TC possibility.
So you would argue that a sealed sloppy track doesn’t favor speed and carry speed further? Hmm. I must be new at this game.
P-Dub your 2nd to last paragraph is spot-on. I don\'t blindly use the analysis, ever, I buy the TG data and form my own opinions. Some of my best scores have come by my own interpretation of the data and my knowledge of pedigrees and factoring in jockeys and trainers, etc. I had Instilled Regard in the 3 and 4 hole for the super yesterday but left Justify off the top due to a prejudice against Storm Cats going that far and I was all in on Good Magic. I don\'t know what you do for a living but I\'m a \"rocket Scientist\" and I find this game to be the perfect indulgence for a guy like me. It requires logic, analysis and most of all, discipline. Nobody needs to lead me by the hand to the window. I\'ll do it myself.
I\'m an OC-California guy and an Angels season ticket holder...I know you\'re an A\'s guy and I think your team has promise. But we have Ohtani and Trout and they are doing great things so far (but very disappointing recently against the Sox and Yanks = those obnoxious east coast teams who fill our stadiums with idiots).
Ace
absolute ditto to this post! I scratch my head at the analysis product, but love the figs. really a must-have.
Ace,
Yanks on a major roll, still haven’t paired their 2 yr old top from last years baby bombers.... You ain’t seen NUTIN yet. Dead Sox start 17-2 and will be in 2nd place in a few days. TG 6-, 7-‘s AHEAD.
Fans much more obnoxious than the team😎
We went early last Saturday to see Judge & Stanton in BP. Camped out in the LF bleachers at 4pm with my glove from HS baseball circa 1981. Stanton skipped BP and Judge hit all his bombs (and they were huge) to the batter\'s eye in center and right of that. Judge crushed the ball in his first three at bats and it was 10-0 Yanks after 2 innings. All Rise, but I\'d rather have Trout...
You’ll never have to worry about Trout taking a curtain call in DaBronx.....
Nope, he\'s coming home to Philly as soon as that contract is up, and we can\'t wait!
To be honest, I heard the same thing from a retired co-worker who is the dad of a kid who played with a kid who played with Trout on the Angels when he was 20=21. His ultimate goal is to be a Philly.
as long as we are talking about baseball, the greatest ball player who ever lived celebrates his 87tt Birthday today- he wore number 24- nuff said!
You mean the god father to the best #24 in (Pittsburg) history and the best #25 In (SF) and (likely all of baseball) history?
Say Hey! Seattle had an ok #24 to if we\'re making lists...
One for the bar stool- Willie Mays amazingly made 24 all star teams, matching his jersey number, #24....there\'s a trivia question in there but I couldn\'t figure out how to phrase it..
Had Willie played where Hank Aaron played( this is for you TGJB) he would have likely hit 800- 900 homers!
Some statistical evidence floating around that suggests otherwise since we\'re talking baseball on a numbers forum.