Only 17/33 BC Juvenile winners made it to the Derby. Two of the last 4 BC Juvenile winners who started have won (Nyquist/Street Sense), and Classic Empire was best of his class if not for his injuries and horrific Derby trip. Many of the others were not stayers at all or had poor preps etc. My sense is that in this new generation of fewer preps, legitimately fast BC Juvenile winners/contenders should be considered strongly.
I think the BC Juvenile 2017 bodes well for GM and Bolt, who have prepped well enough, to make a top showing in the Derby. Foundation doesn\'t hurt.
Focus959 Wrote:
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> Only 17/33 BC Juvenile winners made it to the
> Derby. Two of the last 4 BC Juvenile winners who
> started have won (Nyquist/Street Sense), and
> Classic Empire was best of his class if not for
> his injuries and horrific Derby trip. Many of the
> others were not stayers at all or had poor preps
> etc. My sense is that in this new generation of
> fewer preps, legitimately fast BC Juvenile
> winners/contenders should be considered strongly.
>
>
> I think the BC Juvenile 2017 bodes well for GM and
> Bolt, who have prepped well enough, to make a top
> showing in the Derby. Foundation doesn\'t hurt.
I got the Derby Special. Even ignoring the BC Juvenile, Good Magic looks exceptionally strong to me. I cannot believe he is 12-1. His Blue Grass looks great to me and it looks like he can move forward off of it. I often lose, so what do I know, but I think Good Magic has the best pattern and is there on number power already.
Link To Good Magic W/O Video (https://www.xbtv.com/video/recent/good-magic-worked-4-furlongs-in-48-00-at-keeneland-on-april-21st-2018/)
I doubt the colt could look more professional. He also looks just a bit heavy to my eye. The 12/1 not so much a knock on Good Magic as it is a function of other horses attracting attention, imo.
Chad Brown solid off layoffs so the Fountain of Youth blemish looms large. Especially considering the horse that drubbed him that day is in the derby and 3x+ the price on Good Magic.
\'Chad Brown solid off layoffs so the Fountain of Youth blemish looms large.\'
I think there is enough documented info from Chad that he is treating Good Magic sightly different then some of his older horses off the bench. He firmly believes horse will be best third off bench and they are bringing him along. He was disappointed with his GP performance but I don\'t think we should be with the number he produced off the bench. He also took a nice step forward second off bench which proves Brown is tightening him up (a lot of brown\'s don\'t move forward much second off bench). As a thoro handicapper we should love his Bluegrass performance=Slow brisnet and Beyer which should keep the public off. Unlike some of the past horses the thoro has landed on(such as last year where I felt the horse was a better 1 turn horse) this horse is proven two turn winner with breeding from Curlin and Hard Spun. He has only improved slightly from last year (and curlins improve with age) and he has a perfect running style for the derby. I can see a top in derby and if the baffert horse doesn\'t get things his way Magic is very very logical.
Can someone confirm that there was a minor physical issue that caused him to miss 2 workouts in January, which he references here at 3:30 in the BG post-race interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN3SR951OKE
He said he needed a few more works but their objective is to win the derby .
\"I\'ve seen the same development and … that was the plan,\" Brown said. \"We rested him a bit after his 2-year-old year and brought him back trying to build toward his third race of the year being his best one. As a 2-year-old, his third race in his form cycle was his best one, and he (is) really thriving here at Keeneland.
\"Everyone wants to see the horse win every time. And if you\'re a champion horse in the first race back and you come up a little bit short, it disappoints everyone. I wanted him to win the race. But looking back now, (the Fountain of Youth) was an important building block to get here today. It\'s all been a progression.\"
I have also read that they purposely brought him back late. Brown said he knew that would not allow him much room for setbacks but it was by design. They wanted to give him ample time off after Breeders cup. The late start was due to design.
His third race was his last race as a two year old.
How much of a form cycle is that?
jbrown007 Wrote:
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> \'Chad Brown solid off layoffs so the Fountain of
> Youth blemish looms large.\'
>
> I think there is enough documented info from Chad
> that he is treating Good Magic sightly different
> then some of his older horses off the bench. He
> firmly believes horse will be best third off bench
> and they are bringing him along. He was
> disappointed with his GP performance but I don\'t
> think we should be with the number he produced off
> the bench. He also took a nice step forward second
> off bench which proves Brown is tightening him up
> (a lot of brown\'s don\'t move forward much second
> off bench). As a thoro handicapper we should love
> his Bluegrass performance=Slow brisnet and Beyer
> which should keep the public off. Unlike some of
> the past horses the thoro has landed on(such as
> last year where I felt the horse was a better 1
> turn horse) this horse is proven two turn winner
> with breeding from Curlin and Hard Spun. He has
> only improved slightly from last year (and curlins
> improve with age) and he has a perfect running
> style for the derby. I can see a top in derby and
> if the baffert horse doesn\'t get things his way
> Magic is very very logical.
I just do not see his first race off the layoff as a blemish in any way, shape, or form. He ran a new lifetime top and a figure that on number power is almost right there already (he lost by 4 lengths but ran a better figure than the winner).
If you look at that race, the top two ran 1-2 all the way around the track in a bizarre configuration (starting gate insanely close to first turn) that helps the inside speed horses. The horse that won was lightly race and had license to do what he did with the lead. the horse that ran second had very strong number power, but was trying two turns for the first time.
This horse\'s pattern is exceptionally strong. I see his first race back as a plus in that regard, not as a negative. It was the strength of that race which I think explains the positive move in the Blue Grass. To me, I do not see this horse moving backwards and I think he has a very good chance of stepping forward again.
Hoary saying -- Do not give a horse a bounce until it gives you a bounce first.
If that wisdom is true, this horse needs to be taken extremely seriously.
johnnym Wrote:
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> His third race was his last race as a two year
> old.
> How much of a form cycle is that?
Take it for what it\'s worth. He ran best third race of career. He improved second off bench and Chad has made every indication he is sitting on best. He comes from a daddy whose babies get better with age and he was already fast as a 2yo. He is tactical.
FWIW- he semi-jumped the shadow of the starter\'s stand at the end of the BG and hopped back on his left lead, otherwise his finish might have looked more impressive.
Apparently you persuaded more than a couple of dollars.
Good Magic 11/2 is now the second betting choice behind Justify @ Wynn\'s. Promises Fulfilled still stuck about 75/1.
At my offshore account, this is their most current line:
Justify 5/2
Bolt D\'oro 7/2
Magnum Moon 9/2
Mendelssohn 11/2
My Boy Jack 11/2
Audible 6/1
Good Magic 8/1
Vino Rosso 16/1
Enticed 20/1
Hofburg 20/1
Solomini 20/1
Flameaway 25/1
Noble Indy 25/1
Free Drop Billy 35/1
Promises Fulfilled 40/1
Instilled Regard 45/1
Lone Sailor 45/1
Bravazo 50/1
Combatant 50/1
Firenze Fire 75/1
Givemeaminit 75/1
Snapper Sinclair 75/1
Blended Citizen 100/1
Reride 100/1
Restoring Hope 150/1
Sporting Chance 150/1
Dream Baby Dream 200/1
Good Magic has a beautiful looking sheet,a pedigree for 10f\'s and a trainer pointing for a Derby Day peak.
The knock for me is how slow against the clock and visually(head on replay)that entire Blue Grass field finished the race.