Ask the Experts

My Early Stab at the Actual off odds on the Derby.  A few decisions still remain on the field I believe including whether Quip runs in the race or not.  I have also included last year\'s final guess I posted on 4/30/17 and the actual off rank and off odds below this year\'s field, if interested.

This one is a very, very difficult Derby field to assess in this fashion at this point.  I didn\'t dedicate as much time on this first stab as I have in some prev years but I may update it in another 10-14 days with more information becoming available.  I was also missing a piece of information I usually have but wanted to get this out there early.  I have Hofburg and Gronkowski lower than most think out of guessing that Hofburg will be the wise guy horse and Gronkowski will take the NFL fan\'s money from testosterone filled knuckleheads of all ages playing large bets on GRONK.  I didn\'t think that could be true to such an extent until Patch was 14-1 last year (Pollard\'s Vision for the same trainer in \'04 was 24-1).  Also, Magnum Moon probably far higher than people think but the word is out on the Ark Derby being slowish it seems.  This does add up to the correct amount of points which many don\'t pay attention to although they should.  Go ahead and start tearing it apart, no hard feelings at all as it will help me tweak it more in the coming days.


1. Justify, 2.90-1
2. Mendohlssen, 5.60-1
3. Audible, 6.10-1
4. Good Magic, 11.50-1
5. Bolt d\'Oro, 12.80-1
6. Vino Rossi, 14.60-1
7. Magnum Moon, 17.50-1
8. Hofburg, 18.20-1
9. My Boy Jack, 22.80-1
10. Enticed, 26.00-1
11. Gronkowski, 27.00-1
12. Noble Indy, 28.60-1
13. Quip, 29.30-1
14. Solomini, 32.30-1
15. Promises Fulfilled, 36.00-1
16. Flameaway, 37.10-1
17. Bravazo, 43.40-1
18. Free Drop Billy, 46.60-1
19. Firenze Fire, 54.50-1
20. Lone Sailor, 57.80-1

___________________________

Last year\'s Early Stab on 4/30 (last attempt)

My Attempt by Rank, Name, Odds.  Actual Rank and Actual Off Odds to the Right in Bold

1. Always Dreaming, 4.20-1       1st choice,   4.70-1
2. Classic Empire, 4.50-1       3rd choice,   6.80-1
3. McCracken, 7.40-1          4th choice,   6.90-1
4. Irish War Cry, 8.50-1       2nd choice,   4.80-1
5. Gunnevera, 10.30-1          5th choice,   10.00-1
6. Thunder Snow, 15.60-1       8th choice,   16.40-1
7. Practical Joke, 17.50-1       12th choice,   27.80-1
8. Gormley, 18.20-1          10th choice,   22.30-1
9. Hence, 19.40-1          7th choice,   15.00-1
10. Girvin, 23.30-1          9th choice,   22.10-1
11. Irap, 24.00-1          16th choice,   41.40-1
12. Tapwrit, 26.00-1          11th choice,   27.10-1
13. Lookin At Lee, 30.20-1       13th choice,   33.20-1
14. J Boys Echo, 32.30-1       18th choice,   47.30-1
15. Battle of Midway, 33.40-1       15th choice,   40.00-1
16. State of Honor, 37.40-1       19th choice,   54.00-1
17. Untrapped, 39.00-1          20th choice,   58.00-1
18. Patch, 46.60-1          6th choice,   14.10-1
19. Sonneteer, 54.50-1               14th choice,   39.70-1
20. Fast and Accurate, 70.40-1      17th choice,   41.80-1

I think it\'s, as has become usual, a pretty good first pass at it!

IMO, Magnum Moon will be (significantly) shorter than you have him - he wasn\'t even 17.5/1 in LV before the Arkansas Derby (~10/1). Presently 5/1. I think ~8/1 on the day. Longer than Audible, but shorter than Good Magic or Bolt D\'Oro.

I mean you said it yourself you are just way off on Magnum Moon. He is bet down at my 5dimes account +650. He was 8-1 before winning the Arkansas derby convincingly in Kentucky derby future pool 4 and he is 5-1 at the Wynn. I also think good magic and Bolt will be in the 8-10 to 1 range.

Clearly missed the mark on him according to some texts I\'ve received already as well.  

A few notes on MM though.

Keeping him lower is his undefeated record for certain and many of the future books have him very low.  So I could be way off here but....  

Here are some thoughts on why he might be a little higher than some are thinking right now.  Top Beyer figure has not been over 100 and Justify, Mendehlsson, and Bolt all with figures over 100 to date.  Good Magic is a 2yo champ and Chad Brown\'s Only horse.  MM is Trained by Pletcher but Johnny V and JJ are elsewhere (I understand Saez has been with him since debut but thinking some may push their money in JV and JJ direction).  Pletcher has four of them in the race and all four of them won their last prep.  I think the Pletcher money gets spread out a bit b/c of the jock assignments.    

In 2015, Materiality came in to the Derby with 3 starts all at 3, All at GP.  He was undefeated with Beyer Figs of 87, 102, 110 in the Florida Derby.  He went off at 11.50-1 while stablemate Carpe Diem went off third choice 7.70-1.  Carpe Diem came in with a record of 5-4-1-0 with a best fig of 98. Johnny V rode Carpe and JJ rode Materiality. So, when Pletcher has these multiple horses in these Derbies some surprising things happen with his horses it seems.  I\'m not married to 17-1 and will think it through some more but there are reasons to believe he won\'t be 2nd choice as some are believing.  If I could amend it I\'d play around with putting him closer to the 10-1 mark while adjusting others and not even sure if lower or higher just yet.    

Thanks for the feedback.

Fair

That was a very good job last year.

I just read that Wynn\'s Las Vegas has both Good Magic and Bolt d\'Oro @ 7/1. That surprises me some. But their line doesn\'t have to balance.

My guess is that currently they want to create an image that the race is going to be competitive and with many horses having a chance to win. Such a good crop this year and at nearly half the size as previously to boot.

Fairmount has to take mob psychology into account to get his product right. That is tricky this far in advance because we don\'t know who and how the spinmasters will treat the players.

Then we have me looking at the race as a regular bettor. In all years past I tried to pick a bomb, a lonshot but this year I look at the race and see only two horses who have a chance to win. I think TG has more influence on me than ever before.

A Minus 4 and a SoCal # that usually seems to understate the performance actually turned in on Derby day. Plus both contenders run at or near the front i.e. little or no ground loss. So am I to believe some late running ground losing longshot is going to run a minus six or seven to upset the favorites.

No, no, no the group sings the favorites are going to bounce.  Oh yeah, from outfits that seem to manage bounces better than most. Even a three or four point regression makes them faster than the second tier who are unlikely, we\'ve learned, to improve in a tougher and longer race.

So my line is even money on each of the top two and a couple of hundred to one on all the rest.

I\'m with you on the top 2 being the main contenders, but I\'m going 3-4 deep in Oaks/Derby DDs and even though there are a lot of people here who don\'t take kindly to mentions of class & the roll key races play in determining class, I\'m a big key race guy.  The best key race among the races the entrants have run is the KYJC run last November at Churchill Downs.  The race produced 7 subsequent stakes winners and 5 of this year\'s top 20 ran in that race. Enticed is the only Derby entrant with a stakes win at CD.  At his long odds, I\'m going to make sure that if Enticed wins the Derby, I\'m going to be cashing a ticket on him.

I don\'t disagree with the number on MM. I could see the oenophiles and snapplephiles driving the price down somewhat on Vino Rosso leaving MM a further back 3rd of the Pletcher betting interests in the 15-1 range.

The 4th Pletcher horse coming off a race that has produced the most KD jump ups over the years is holding my interest as well although he is still riderless. He\'ll be 2nd time blinkers and one of a few in this race who seems to be comfortable on the rail. A new top and a ground saving trip could get him into the tris.

I think MM will be about the same price as Bolt, and half the price of the Wood winner. MM is undefeated, the point leader, and just won a GI.

Strong points. Perhaps I\'m overestimating the power of the red carpet and the ability of a kid from Queens to spread the word of hope. Time will tell.

Gerard Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t disagree with the number on MM. I could
> see the oenophiles and snapplephiles driving the
> price down somewhat on Vino Rosso leaving MM a
> further back 3rd of the Pletcher betting interests
> in the 15-1 range.
>
> The 4th Pletcher horse coming off a race that has
> produced the most KD jump ups over the years is
> holding my interest as well although he is still
> riderless. He\'ll be 2nd time blinkers and one of a
> few in this race who seems to be comfortable on
> the rail. A new top and a ground saving trip could
> get him into the tris.


Not to mention he has a running line and solid number at a distance that is a common thread among KY Derby winners of late.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

Mendelssohn ran near the front, in more than :25.  What position does that put him in going into the first turn?  10 lengths back with 10 horses in ahead of him?  Doesn\'t mean he can\'t handle that pace on the front end, but I\'m not sure I want to bet him at those odds - leaving aside a bounce and shipping in on top of the race.  

Justify has proven he can go faster early, but still not at what the pace you usually see in the Derby.  

Bode went back.  Point Given went back.  It\'s not like Baffert\'s don\'t regress in the Derby.

A. Are you suggesting the winning number in this years Kentucky Derby will not be in the minus two or better range?

B. Are you also projecting this years Kentucky Derby will go in :23 and sub :47 by  a colt other than the top two and still be in the same zip code at the finish line. Who would that be?

C. Going back from a -4 to -3 does not concern me. Are you projecting a big bounce for Justify and/or Medelssohn. Anything can happen, Medelssohn might come out bucking like a bronco.

The history is easy. What has happened is well documented. At issue, for me, is predicting what will happen on Mayday no pun intended.


So AJ, if asked to take an early stand who is the value in the win slot at todays\'s estimated prices?

I\'m suggesting that Mendelssohn\'s apparent ability to run on or near the lead is only apparent.  A horse that can get to the front on a 25 second clip will get to run his race - won\'t have to worry about traffic, will go when the jockey says go, etc.  

Last year\'s Derby went in :22.7.  Maybe Mend can be within a couple of lengths of that pace.  Or, he could be in the middle of the pack looking for running room entering the far turn.  That doesn\'t require a bounce to get a weaker number.  He could have to check, or get stuck behind horses slowing down.  We don\'t even know how the horse will do eating dirt for a half mile.

I will have both of them (especially Justify) on top of several exotics.  I will also have Mend out of the super on plenty of tix.  I haven\'t played a win bet in the Derby in more than a decade, but my early value play on top would be Vino.

Edit:  As an aside, the knuckleheads are really going to pile in on Gronk, now that the real Gronk has a piece of the horse.

Thanks.

Yeah Gronk, Jeez, I have no idea what to think of that one. Except I don\'t expect him to be forwardly placed. I\'ll move him up if the temperature drops into the 40\'s and it rains.

I do appreciate your exotic strategy. Vino\'s previous bounceback causes me some doubt. He looked pretty solid destroying my exacta play in the Wood. I will not be surprised if he moves forward and his running style is not risky in my opinion.

Now we wait for the next defection.

How many years has it been since a horse has come out of the Wood and won or even finished in the trifecta in the Derby? There have been several horses with great figs and decent patterns come out of the Wood and not crack the top 3 in Louisville. Don’t know what to make of this, but it is food for thought.

Patrick

I thought this might come up. I\'m not shy about criticizing the Wood and all told I conclude as a group, they (Wood alumni) are not very good in early May (to be polite). Further, Like you say too many got too much spotlight and steam which apparently cooked them.

Vino is not yet a steam engine. In fact the Wood prejudice and other factors have kept him somewhat under the radar. He\'s one individual and doesn\'t have to be saddled with the sins of the group.

I don\'t know what # TG awarded him but it wasn\'t a red one was it?

I’m not saying that I won’t be using Vino, I’ll probably be wary however. Unfortunately for me, I keyed Normandy Invasion and Frosted in recent years😳

after looking at him, that line stinks to me, whether he paired his 2 yr old top, or moved 2 pts, I do not like that line at all

I still can\'t mention %@**($_ Upstart without cursing.

So we expect nada from a Woody but one day one of them will follow through.

Similar to Russian Sanctions.

Take that 25 seconds with a grain of salt, Meydan must have a very short run up to the timer similar to Gulstream Park 1 mile races where the 2nd quarter is always faster than the 1st.  
For comparison, later that night Thunder Snow led in 25.73  (http://www.dubairacingclub.com/race/racing-info/trakus-chart). West Coast, who is not slow ran 25.88.  

Medelsshon does have natural speed and has been forwardly placed on all surfaces, he ran 23 and 47 on the Delmar turf no more than 1.5 lengths back. He will be in the first quarter of the field and looking to stay out of trouble. Only an inside draw will force a more aggressive approach. In Meydan, Moore hustled him out of gate to take advantage of the speed/rail bias. For more on that see this lengthy youtube video which details the extent of bias. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O48Tx5f4HpA courtesy of Phillip Walton Vosburgh

FWIT Andy Sterling thought it more a rail bias but nonetheless it did impact the performance and final figure.  If you deduct for said bias then he still has a co-top? Would this lessen the likely bounce forthcoming?  Or is a super effort still too hard to pair up or have only a slight regression no matter how it was earned?  He will have 5 weeks to recover but an international flight and quarantine will cut into that recovery time. He is a May 17 foal, so a young 3 yr old is up against it on several counts. Being fastest going, you have to decide what do with him before you move on to the rest.

That was the colts first attempt on dirt, do any of his previous figures apply?  We know this horse; unlike so many Adain has shipped prior, was bred for the dirt.
 
I find it interesting that so many are predicting a bounce because it was a big figure.  If the horse had been based in the US, made his first dirt start in the SA Derby, by an EPO loving trainer, earning the same -4, would your take be the same?

Add another factor in: He will be returning to Lasix after not running on Lasix in the UAE.

Tossing all the Pletch & Bafferts time of the year again around here I see. Gotta love it. I remember the nonstop abuse if Pharoah was whispered he looked hard to beat. Never forget

Value plays are value plays for a reason.  His pattern won\'t look that good, but maybe the Tampa efforts can be chalked up to surface issues.

His Wood number puts him in the discussion with Justify and Audible, at more than double the price.  Will look to see his workouts at Churchill.

I was in Vegas yesterday and stopped by the Wynn.

They have 6 horses single-digits to win the KD.  I don\'t think the real odds will be that compact.  

Shockingly they have Justify as 8-1 to win the Triple Crown.  How is that a logical bet?

I think it is important to recognize that their approach is different and don\'t follow the same methodology that Fairmont is using.

From what I\'ve been reading, he\'s a strong worker. Repole said he wanted the Wood moved to 9:00 am, expecting him to be a head turner at CD. I\'m not as sure about the surface change or 2nd time blinkers as much as the outside post he had in the Wood. For now I\'m earmarking him to have to be quite wide in order to pair, and there seem to be more than a few in that category this year. I have Bolt in that category as well and while Castellano says loyalty drove him, I\'m not quite buying it. Anyway, VR just didn\'t look comfortable rating inside in the Davis or the TBD. Could\'ve been the surface, will definitely be a game time decision with the odds board on him.

I’ll preface the below with the following. Forgive me for crashing this insightful conversation with an extremely dumb question.

How are you able to see Vino’s and Wood number? Or are you just speculating on what you think it may be?

I have no idea about anyone else, but I\'m merely speculating based on Beyer. I\'m eagerly awaiting the pre entries for conformation.

Thanks. Wasn’t sure if I missed a special or something.

Haskin like last year is giving out some of the figures in his dozen report.

Points leaders package for Oaks/Derby will be for sale next couple days as usual.

Yes.  Was relying on Haskin\'s comments.

IMO not a chance Vino Rosso is twice the price of Audible.

Audible will be closer to 10-1 than 5-1 especially now that the Gronks are in the picture. VR not going off in the mid-teens.


Good Luck,
Joe B

No equivocation, I like that.

Furthermore, I\'m confident your opinion does not qualify as an assertion even though some may assert it is.

So Joe, I contend Mendelssohn is an overlay in the win slot @ 7/1. Do you opine any currently fair/accurate prices in the the win spot.

VR will be about 7th favorite, it’s worth looking at what price the 7th favorite usually is. I think he’ll be at least 5 points higher than Audible.

and can you leak whether it matters?

Since \'08 (last 10 Derbies),

Lowest 7th choice was 11.90-1 (Soldat-Twice the Appeal actually co-6th choices and I\'m not sure which had more money in the win pool).  Dialed In was the fav at 5.20-1.  

Highest 7th choice was 19.20-1, Z Fortune in \'08.  Big Brown was a 2.40-1 favorite.  

The median during that time frame is 14.70 (average of the two numbers in the middle).  14.40 Mubtaahij and 15.00 Hence

In addition to the runup c/b some think the time relates to yardage. Whereas I\'m pretty sure it actually relates to meterage.

So... anectodally we (I) can say that there are quite a few variables on which we cant agree and/or interpret differently as pertains to the Dubai races. Runups, metre\'s, reactions, pairs, lasix on, and the list goes on. Seeking clarification on this chilly late April North Country evening, I consulted the archives and found myself at the Y2K Breeders Cup TG\'s (not sheets) to see what A O\'B did with another dirt bred who was trying to win a major North American dirt race. Thank you all for the latitude as I may not be completely accurate. Still, maybe no relevance but check out Tiznow and Giant Causeways pages. Wonder what that analysis looked like...5 point top. Anyway, fastest horse, top trainer, appropriate running style, adds Lasix, 7-1, and there you have it. Until the draw anyway. One more comment...was anyone at the Breeders Cup and was around the paddock for the Juv Turf? Heard it was quite the scene with Medelssohn screaming and dropping like a stallion. If you read this and say \"what is this dude on\"? I understand

Just yesterday I was pondering this subject. I took the fork in the road that led to Occam\'s Razor. There I was, calm and settled. Imagining 7/1 on a horse as fast as any, a trainer as good as any. Keep it Simple I thought.

Then Niall shows the other side of the coin. Starts his thoughts with the word anectodally. Who uses words like that. Federal Prosecutors, College Professors, Rail Birds at Belmont Park? Plus sounds like he\'s freezing in a snow storm to boot.

His thoughts seque the narrative to the wonderful real world history of horse racing and the Kentucky Derby, this site and the potential for some color commentary to parrallel the discussion now morphing into form lines, patterns, and physics.

As we advance through the process that is the Kentucky Derby buildup. The preps are over, TG has published the numbers. The post draw is down the line. Some hope we have no more defections while others hope there are. Newbies are creating accounts in preparation for koolaid binges. We can hope alumni stop by.

Seems a good time for a brief nostalgistic journey down memory lane. RIP Giants Causeway.

What Is Giants Causeway? (http://www.giantscausewayofficialguide.com/)

A Look See (http://coolmore.com/stallions/giants-causeway/)

2000 BC Classic (https://youtu.be/FRAo0fj8fT4)

I feel compelled to point out that the poster you responded to has confessed to posting post-mushrooms.