Someone smarter than me with more spare time than me (I have zero these days) could research this. Most of the longshots who fill in the exacta/tri/super....the Comanding Curves, the Lookin at Lees came from out of it. I mean have there been many 25, 30-1 types who were on the lead and still around to hit the ticket? These types seem like the first to go....
Closers in the tri:
2017 LAL
2016 Exaggerator
2015 None
2014 Commanding Curve
2013 Orb,Golden Soul.Revolutionary
2012 Dullahan
2011 Animal Kingdom
2010 Ice Box
2009 Mine That Bird
2008 Denis of Cork
2007 Street Sense
2006 Steppenwolfer
2005 Giacomo
2004 Imperialism
2003 None
2002 None
2001 Monarchos,Invisible Ink
2000 Aptitude
Not all bombs,but with an honest to fast pace you\'ll get a closer in the tri just about every year.
My Boy Jack looks like the horse that would benefit most from a legit to fast pace
this year.
Would not count out FDB
Ok well done. Obvioisly as you pointed out not all were bombs. And in the case of Street Sense he was the favorite.
There seems to more of pattern of long prices who were not on the front end getting into tue final payout. And very very few longshots who were near the front and hung on until the end.
Came up with four bombs in the first flight that hung around in the tri going back to 2000.
2017 Battle Of Midway 40-1 sat 3rd,4th honest pace
2006 Bluegrass Cat 30-1 was 5th the first couple calls and the pace was fast.
2005 Closing Argument 71-1 sat 6th but the pace was hot.
2002 Proud Citizen 23-1 stalked the winner in a boat race Derby
Nice work. So essentially 4 in 20 years. And last year that was a speed fsvoring Greasy track. Midway won BC Mile so there WAS untapped later to be proven quality.
Anyone taking the Pletchers, the Baffert and Dubai winner and boxing then up is bucking history
Over at the horse racing subreddit user Hodsct59 has put together a solid analysis of this. Here are the links.
https://www.reddit.com/r/horseracing/comments/8ck25k/20032017_ky_derby_winners_2nd_place_finishers_3rd/?st=JG2ELJDS&sh=0d841d88
https://www.reddit.com/r/horseracing/comments/8ck165/19842002_ky_derby_winners_2nd_place_finishers/?st=JG2EN1Z9&sh=c7482dc9