https://infograph.venngage.com/ps/Ji3DLdshmYA/8-facts-about-nevada-sports-betting
There seemed to be some confusion when I last posted the avg nationwide slot hold around 9%.
These take outs are 100% completely independent of the underlying costs.
The slot machines companies, casinos and sports book take out is designed to maximize their bottom line. If they thought 20% take out would fly like it does in horse racing, the local slot machines would take 20%. After decades of taking these bets, they determined these take out rates maximize the bottom line for the house. Something one would think horse racing would be interested in pursuing. Instead the SCOTUS is probably going to overturn the sport\'s betting ban and gamblers nationwide will yet again have another gaming option far more appetizing than horse racing.
BTW how about these odds plungers lately? Horse that went to the lead in the Wood goes fr 15/1 to 7/1 with a million in the pool. Sunland derby winner goes from 7/1 to 3/1 with $500K in the pool. Great stuff. Get to pay usurious take out rates and take wild guesses at the final prices.
I can\'t speak highly enough of Mathcapper\'s suggestion of using the daily double will-pays to estimate win odds. It\'s not perfect, but it eliminates big, unwelcome surprises in many cases. My guess is that it probably works best when the computer guys are in the pools.
In the Wood, my amateurish estimate had Old Time Revival going off at 8.6-1. The system did not predict the late money on Runaway Ghost.
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> In the Wood, my amateurish estimate had Old Time
> Revival going off at 8.6-1. The system did not
> predict the late money on Runaway Ghost.
I didn\'t do the Sunland Derby, but that\'s pretty close to what I had for Old Time Revival in the Wood, although I have to admit even I didn\'t think he was going to get down that low when I looked at the odds at the starting gate.
The horse was 19-1 with $612K in the pool as the first horse was about to load. Another $355K came into the pool in that last minute (which is pretty typical in terms of percentage of the pool, but quite a bit in terms of absolute dollar amount). $25.5K was bet on him during the entire betting period leading up to the gate, and another $57K came in while they were loading, which dropped him from 19-1 to 8.8-1, right in line with the Will Pays. It was such a large amount that he was actually the 2nd choice (4-1) in the marginal pool (the last $355K that was bet).
In general, the marginal late money is more efficient than the overall win pool, whether or not it\'s just moving in line with the Will Pays -- have to wonder if that might have been some pretty prescient money if the horse had been able to relax at all in the early going instead of running the first half like he was a quarter horse at Los Al...