Top 20 in points from KY Derby site are in the link below.
McKenzie has been removed and Firenze Fire has been moved outside of it. Someone has some common sense realizing this is not a Derby Horse or it’s a typo? I would like to think the former.
If Magnum Moon, Quip & Solomini run any version of 1,2,3 in Arkansas it leaves only the 10 points for 4th & 10 in The Lexington to crack the list. Of course there will always be defections between now and May 5th.
We know a few things for sure:
TAP will have 5 in, 25% of the field.
Justify will be hyped, ride the B.B. Derby wave to favoritism maybe as low as 5/2? He won’t be loose setting pedestrian fractions.
There will be a jump up wise guy horse that should be 20/1 and will be 9/1.
If Magnum Moon wins in Hot Springs he will ride the Pletcher wave to 3rd betting choice behind Justify & Good Magic.
There will be a million stories about Mendelssohn, A.O., Coolmore and the Dubai route to Kentucky. With a bit of luck, there may even be one about his monster effort and a kindergarten explanation of a bounce?
What we don’t know:
How Justify will react to 140,000 people, to being behind horses and taking dirt,
to getting bumped around. Though immensely talented and with as efficient a stride as you ever want to see, he has not figured it all out yet for sure.
The final TG numbers.
Who Chuckles the Clown will masquerade as this year.
What I think:
Lots of talent in this years field, very solid 3 yr old crop.
I’m no where near willing to find out if Justify is Superman at his odds. He will have to beat me and getting him out of any sequence vertical or horizontal will pay well.
2 months ago if someone told you that Bolt d’Oro was healthy, training well and would be the 4th betting choice at 6 or 7/1 would you have believed them?
A long way to go, just a few thoughts to get the ball rolling.....
Good Luck,
Frank D.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard
Does anybody else think that this year\'s Bluegrass was very similar to last year\'s Santa Anita Derby where Battle of Midway (Flameaway) did all the dirty work only to have Gormley (Good Magic) rally to get up? I think Flameaway could be like BOM and make the KD tri and super valuable like BOM did last year, especially if Flameaway draws a better inside post in KD. A lot of similarities in my opinion.
While I along with Frank liked Flameaway on Saturday and he ran a gutsy race I do not like him in the Kentucky Derby. It is simple really, he has already developed a lot. On a more subjective note - Good Magic does not impress me.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Top 20 in points from KY Derby site are in the
> link below
>
>
> We know a few things for sure:
> TAP will have 5 in, 25% of the field.
>
THIS WILL BE A GREAT TEST FOR THE \"SINATRA THEORY\"
>
>
> There will be a million stories about Mendelssohn,
> A.O., Coolmore and the Dubai route to Kentucky.
> MANDELBAUM IS NOT THE TRADITIONAL \"DESERT TO THE DERBY\" COLT. NOT OWNED BY SHEIK MO. TRAINED NOT BY BIN SUROOR, BUT BY WORLD\'S GREATEST TRAINER (SORRY BAFFERT FANBOYS). ALSO MANDELBAUM HAS ALREADY BEEN TO N.A.
>
>
> Who Chuckles the Clown will masquerade as this
> year?
CHUCK WILL BE POSTING THIS YEAR AS \"Q.ANON\".🤡
>
>
>
> 2 months ago if someone told you that Bolt d’Oro
> was healthy, training well and would be the 4th
> betting choice at 6 or 7/1 would you have believed
> them?
6/1 7/1 NO VALUE ON COLT ON 3 RACE LOSING STREAK TRAINED BY MAN GOING TO FIRST RODEO?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard
Maybe you could utilize the TG Archives and Redboard Room to support your opinion?
Way to kick things of Frank.
1) How many horses will be below 10-1? 5 or 6? Think Justify May be a bit higher than 5/2 for that reason. Lots of history against him.
2) Gronk will be this years Patch way over bet.
3) Do not believe Justify needs the lead.
4) How will any of these horse’s act in front of a 140,000?
5) I believe there is a big talent difference between the top 6 and the rest of the pack.
6) Good Magic Final 1/8 13.31 seconds a bit slow with another 1/8 mile. Is Chad smarter than us?
7) Still have 4 weeks and the Ark Derby.
Good Luck should be fun
John
I think you forgot about Audible
Not even in the super like Battle of Midway?
Current Futures Pool some:
Mendelssohn 4/1
Bolt 8/1
Good Magic 10/1
Wise Guy Candidates
My Boy Jack 28/1
Hofburg 20/1
Louisianna gets no respect
Noble Indy Is 37/1
Lone Sailor 93/1
Still Stuck on the fact that Coolmore spent $3,000.000 @ Sept. Kee yearling sale for the Dubai Boy.
Can’t make a call until we see the final prep numbers. Very few horses win the Derby off of a regression.
I didn’t forget him at all....
I hope the public shares your assessment 😎
Agree. A useful one. His slingshot move in Fla Derby will have him attacking and in position if he is good enough.
What does JJ do? Stay with Bolt? Johnny V stay with Uadibleafter JJ bolted. Then it leaves Vinnie and Repole riderless. Magnum Moon and Saez are in tact. Remember Castellano was not in Florida because he was in Dubai.
I think Justify will end up at 2/1 (or slightly less) on Derby Day. Now whether or not the horse DESERVES those odds is debatable, but I do not think anyone, especially on this board, accused “the public†as always being smart. Looking at historical trends tell me unless something strange happens, Justify will be your favorite at no more odds than 2/1 and depending on how far the hype train moves out of the station, maybe even 8/5. First off, as discussed, there is huge hype surrounding this one, especially given he is undefeated and his connections are nowadays synonymous with Kentucky Derby. Add in the fact that the public has been VERY successful tabbing the winner of the Derby the last five years with the favorites riding a five-year win streak, there is no reason for the public to get off now. Heck, they many will be are thinking that they keep on winning betting the “best†horse each year, so why not pile on this undefeated freak of nature trained by the same guy who trained the last Triple Crown winner. The last bit of evidence comes from the Derby Future betting. While this is a bit premature as it does not close for a number of hours still, but only one winner of the Derby not in the mutual field paid more on Derby day than he did in the last pool (Monarchos paid $15.80 in the last pool, but $23.00 on track). Justify is 5/2 as I write this and may drift up to 3/1 as late “market corrections†come in on horses perceived to be undervalued like Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic who both sit at 10/1, but I do not think he will drift that much if at all. If you look at the winners that were 3/1 in the final pool â€" Nyquist, Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus, they all were 2/1 on Derby day (see table below). I think all of this points to Justify being a strong favorite on Derby day and would be very surprised if he was more than 2/1.
Kentucky Derby Winner Final Pool Derby Day
2017 Always Dreaming $14.20 $11.40*
2016 Nyquist $8.00* $6.60*
2015 American Pharoah $13.00 $7.80*
2014 California Chrome $20.80 $7.00*
2013 Orb $29.60 $12.80*
2012 I\'ll Have Another $45.60 $32.60
2011 Animal Kingdom $64.40 $43.80
2010 Super Saver $73.00 $18.00
2009 Mine That Bird $36.80(f) $103.20
2008 Big Brown $8.60* $6.80*
2007 Street Sense $15.40 $11.80*
2006 Barbaro $20.80 $14.20
2005 Giacomo $103.60 $102.60
2004 Smarty Jones $23.60 $10.20*
2003 Funny Cide $107.40 $27.60
2002 War Emblem $24.00(f) $43.00
2001 Monarchos $15.80 $23.00
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus $8.00* $6.60*
1999 Charismatic $26.60(f) $64.00
*designates favorite
One wager we should consider is an over/under on how many times American P will be mentioned in the Derby week telecasts by NBC and NBC Sports.
My tip is to bet the \"over\".
Thanks Mole for the facts and figures based post, a nice contrast to some of the
endless word salad and endorsements for non - thorographical products seen around
here every year at Derby time.
I do not know if any Derby favorite will come into Louisville so lacking in seasoning. Not only has Justify only raced three times, he only has a total of 3 miles on the odometer. Additionally, he has beaten a total of 14 competitors in those 3 races, including two maidens in the SA Derby.
No amount of hype or public adoration could convince me to support this inexperienced, albeit highly talented colt 27 days from now. And yes, I\'ve been wrong before.
Well said Ritchie and well done Mole.
As Patrick Reed heads for \"Holly\" the 18th hole at Augusta National it is somewhat reminiscent of Craig Stadler and Charles Coody except those stocky champions had big personalities.
Because he doesn\'t fit the sterotype it becomes difficult to imagine he\'ll win. Of course that\'s on the turf.
@ 2/1 imo only fanatics and true believers will indulge. We don\'t even know if he can run inside horses. I side with Richie on this one.
Baffert saying let me show you this years Derby winner could have been fake news.
Molesap,
It is a little early for my Early Stab at the Kentucky Derby Odds with the Ark Derby still to be run so I haven\'t put extraordinary time into this endeavor yet. I find this a very interesting take on your part and had not considered the last future pool as a predictor of Derby Day odds. It looks like Justify closed at 3-1 and Mendelssohn at 5-1 if it is completely updated on the Derby Future website. My spreadsheet only goes to 2000 so excuse me for not having \'99 included for the discussion below.
_______________________________
Your thought of slightly less than 2-1 seems very unlikely to me. Since 2000, only 1 horse has went off under 2.00-1 during those 18 Derby runnings. That was Point Given in 2001 at 1.80-1. There were 17 betting interests. On your side of this argument is that Baffert trained him and was so confident that year that he said he thought he had a chance that Point Given and Congaree would run 1-2. He seems to have similar confidence this year.
As you probably know, there have been only 3 horses at 2-1 (not 5-2) during those 18 runnings or in other words 2-1 but not 5-2. FuPeg, Big Brown, and Nyquist. Only Big Brown and Nyquist were 2-1 with 20 betting interests in the race. One reason you may be right at 2-1 is that Big Brown and Nyquist were both undefeated headed into Derby Day like Justify. There have been four favorites that have been between 2.50-1 and 2.90-1 (5-2) in that span. So, during the last 18 runnings, there have been 8 horses under 3-1 and 10 that were at or over that number.
I also would point out that Mendelssohn is the likely 2nd choice esp if DRF includes his Beyer in DRF as I heard on one media source as a possibility (DRF connected representative stated this). Some have said Beholder\'s brother will be far more than 5-1 or 6-1 on Derby Day. But depending on the ArkDerby result (which includes Magnum Moon and Solimini among others), I think he very well could be at 5-1 or so esp since he is owned by Tabor. I point this all out because if by chance he did go as low as under 9-2 as the 2nd choice (under 4.50-1), I find it highly unlikely that Justify is anything less than 5-2. Interestingly, no 2nd choice has been less than 4.00-1 since 2000.
There is one other note I would like to make on your connection between Future wagering and Derby Day odds. The truly uninformed money wasn\'t in the pool this weekend; on Derby Day, it will include far more people that think the 15 is pretty and that number 3 has beautiful silks or the wiseguy that always plays a 20-1 shot for $500. This would make me believe Justify\'s odds will be slightly higher than you are likely thinking on Derby Day.
My take is that he will be the favorite. The \"hype\" will subside a bit. Since the point systems started in 2013 (including that Derby), the favorite has won all five runnings supporting your idea that the crowd will go after the favorite again. But last year the favorite was 4.70-1 so I don\'t think that will be the reason Justify is a low number. Also, I\'ve already had several handicappers I respect already tell me since yesterday that they will be against Justify on Derby Day. Justify will go favored. Where he ends up is a real guess. Under 2-1 seems very, very unlikely. 2-1 seems a little low to me. I see him between 2.50-1 and 3.50-1 (and closer to 2.50 than 3.50) if I had to guess today but I will wait to see how next week unfolds for a full guess at the field including Justify. And what if Derby week he draws post number 1?
As to johnnym\'s point that Justify will be higher than 3-1 (3.00-1 or more), again, I\'m not certain any of us can venture a fair guess until the Ark Derby is ran just in case something interesting happens there figure wise. Johnny, I highly doubt there will be 5 or 6 horses under 10-1 (9.90-1 or less). Recent history suggests it will be likely be 3 or 4 horses in that range. The two times since 2007 there were 5 or 6 horses 9.90-1 or less, the favorite was 5.20-1 and 5.40-1 respectively. That won\'t happen this year with Justify.
Well put and interesting.
At the close of the future pool 6 were under 10-1.
I’ll stick to my prediction for know.
Justify was 3-1
Everyone - thanks for the replies. When I posted the morning line stuff, I had Fairmont in mind and I defer to his expertise in that area. I always look forward to his annual post breaking down the betting trends and where he thinks the odds will land for each starter. He uses much more empirical data than I did and obviously waiting until all the preps are run and the field is established with post positions is a more prudent plan. After reading Fairmount’s response, I think I probably overestimated the degree to which Justify will get bet and thinking he may be going under 2/1 was a stretch. Plus, you never know what horse is going the catch of eye of the public like Patch did (yes pun was intended).
I did agree on a number of points made here and by other posters. I do think Mendelssohn will be the second choice if nothing “special†happens in Arkansas this weekend and barring any unforeseen circumstances. However, if Magnum Moon wins big with a strong number he will get significant action. He is the only one left to run in my opinion that can garner enough attention at this point to shake up the big six, partially because he is part of the big six (with closing odds and will pays from the futures wager).
Justify - 3/1 ($8.40)
Mendelssohn - 5/1 ($12.60)
Audible - 7/1 ($16.60)
Magnum Moon - 8/1 ($19.80)
Good Magic - 9/1 ($20.60)
Bolt d’Oro - 9/1 ($21.00)
Interesting to me that Magnum Moon closed lower than Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic, so if he wins, his odds are only dropping. The next closest betting interested was all other 3YO at 17/1. The lowest individual horses after that were Hofburg at 22/1, then a trio at 25/1 including Enticed, My Boy Jack and Solomini.
I expect to see what FrankD, mentioned as well. A wiseguy horse that should be 20/1 that gets bet down to about half his odds â€" then like most wiseguy horses, he’ll run like he should be 50/1.
Hofburg has the feel of a wiseguy horse that may be lower than his m/l. Not expressing an opinion on his ability here just that he could be much lower than anticipated.
This future pool with $339k really expresses how \"informed\" the pool is compared to Derby Day. One can see the money is concentrated on the more likely winners and ignoring the less likely winners by a wide margin compared to Derby Day odds. 6 interests under 10-1 and 7 interests over 60-1 (29% of the interests). Granted, I\'m not comparing apples to apples with 24 vs 20 betting interests in the example below but I think the difference should be clear.
In 2005, the Derby consisted of the following superfecta:
14th choice, Giacomo: 50.30-1
20th choice, Closing Argument: 71.60-1
2nd choice, Afleet Alex: 4.50-1
10th choice, Don\'t Get Mad: 29.20-1
This is important because since that Derby the longshots are not as \"long.\"
One simple example.
From 2000-2005 (6 Derbies), there were 102 betting interests total in those Derbies and 11 of 102 (10.7%) were 58.10-1 or longer with only one of those Derbies having 20 betting interests.
From 2006-2017 (12 Derbies), there were 234 betting interests total in those Derbies and 4 of 234 (1.7%) were 58.10-1 or higher with 7 of those Derbies having 20 betting interests .
Don\'t ask why I picked 58.10-1, just go with it. (Rocky would likely yell at me but basically it was an easy number to work with to make the point most clear). As you can see, the percentage of long prices in this weekend\'s pool is far higher than either before or after 2005 on Derby Day.
Johnny, I\'ll also stand firm on my prediction even this far out re: horses 9.90-1 or less. Maybe we can make a friendly wager on some Heinken at Saratoga on this if you are up there one of these years? I\'ll take 4 horses or less will be 9.90-1 or less and you can have 5 horses or more will be 9.90-1 or less on Derby Day? Let me know if you are in. If not Heinken for you, just let me know by pm or text your preference. :-)
Richie:
Consider it a gentleman’s wager I’m not a beer guy but I’ll put down a couple of Tito’s and soda.
Agree regarding Hofburg.
Putting the winner aside for a second who could be this years Classic Empire? Decent 3-4th type hits the board & fires right back for a respectable 2nd at Pimlico to finally tire out.
Good Magic will plod in for 3rd or 4th
Not sure why you think so. If he didn’t go back in the BG he then has an immaculate sheet. Not sayin he’ll win or even go forward in the KYD but there’s nothing to indicate he won’t.
Really interesting discussions and view points that are articulated well. Thank you all !! Great info provided by Molesap. 5 times in a row since the point system went into effect? That is powerful to me. I have been looking for a reason to go all in, and bet against, Mendelssohn. Right now I\'m all in, and will stay that way unless he shows up in KY looking worse for wear from the UAE Derby. Here\'s why...I\'m well invested in him in all future pools except this past one. I\'m also going to take a stance that figures from there are just not as accurate. TG\'s and otherwise. One reason I take that stance is that I heard Baffert say that WestCoast did not run his A race. And he also raved about Mendelssohn saying he was a big, fast looking, muscular horse. He wasnt surprised. He also really likes the filly he\'ll be getting from that race. Whats her breeding? Oh - what do you think about Scat Daddy being 26-1 in the sire pool and has the top 2 choices currently?
Finally, anybody know a good place to watch the race in Aruba?
Good points And you have to see the post draw
Granted Good Magic won this weekend. Many that have watched this colt work are very negative on him and feel he has physical issues. Just my two cents but I will be paying close attention to him on Derby week.
all I know is we are due for a price
Niall,
The Riu Hotel on Palm Beach in Aruba has a race book which takes bets from all the major US tracks. I watched and bet(unsuccessfully) on the Ft of Youth back in March and it was a good experience. The room is relatively small, so get your bets in early. The hotel has three towers and the race book is located in the casino in the tower all the way to the left as you stand looking from the street in front.
Great place, good luck!
Mack
This Thoro-Pattern right here has been very predictive for the last few years.. One could still get 5/1 or better on Justify in the Ante-Post markets.
Heck even 33/1 on the triple crown could be worth a shot. After all there\'s still upside there if he were to pull it off come the 1st saturday of may. I don\'t love this as a betting race, so guess I\'ll keep it simple and spend my energy elsewhere this year.
(Edited 17th of April)
Whatever issues he has he seems to overcome on race day. Afleet Alex had at least one bad leg and ran pretty well on it.
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Top 20 in points from KY Derby site are in the
> link below.
> McKenzie has been removed and Firenze Fire has
> been moved outside of it. Someone has some common
> sense realizing this is not a Derby Horse or
> it’s a typo?
The owner of Firenze Fire says he\'ll run in the Derby if they\'re still in the top 20 after Saturday.
If that\'s the case My Boy Jack needs to run 2nd(8 pts) in the Lexington to be safe barring a wild result in the Arkansas Derby.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard
I thought the 5 mtp call-up was worthy of a nomination too. With the \"Epic Proportions of The Freakin Stubborn Epidemic\" and all..
This goes to all of you (RichieBee in particular): Never pick on the little guys. It\'s just not cool.
Pete,
Please explain to me like I’m. 5 yr old what I said that qualifies as a red board?
I posted a pick 5 play BEFORE THE RACE, without a single response, critique or fuck you you’re nuts? NONE from all our post race experts.
In the pick 5Post it clearly states that I used Justify no more or less than 4 other horses.
My post was an expression of someone’s opinion whom I respect emensley when it comes to evaluating horse flesh after 6 decades. I sit with him 30 or so days most years, last year excluded at the Spa and we watch the horses being led over to the paddock. Someone who was personal friends with Allen Jerkens, Bobby Frankel and a host of other top horseman since the 60’s. Someone who Shug brought in to consult with on Personal Ensign’s campaign related to performance cycles.
Quite a few more feathers but I don’t want to bore you with....
Before you start tossing RED BOARD accusations at me of all people on this site.
You had better know what you are talking about. I had nominal interest in the race after the monsoon hit from a wagering stand point, my horizontals went south. I’ve stated it here at least 100 times I play 85% horizontals pick 4’s & 5’s. I fooled around with some triples that was it for my Derby action.
You can’t tell the players without a score card and you obviously did not purchase one upon admission. Yes I will be there live and in person if he wins the Preakness in the event there is a 5th triple crown in my lifetime, I want to be able to tell my grandchildren some day that YUP, I saw them all.
I hope FD the 3rd or 4th doesn’t jump out of his high chair and bitch slap me and say Grandpa quit red boarding.....
For what its worth i will back Frank D on this. We discussed Justify privately and pick 4,5. And his post was pre-race. I think he did just fine for the day, but he’s not going to say it.
Where is Jimbo?
Million bucks? As a popular country turned pop artist once said... haters gonna hate hate hate hate hate. Boom. First Taylor Swift reference on the TG message board. Millennials have officially arrived. Hey! On the plus side, racing isn’t dead after all!
I’ll see myself out.
Furious Pete Wrote:
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> This goes to all of you (RichieBee in particular):
> Never pick on the little guys. It\'s just not cool.
Ok, first of all, I \"pick on\" everybody. And I enjoyed immensely the \"insider
bias\" double entendre. Inaccurate, but well played nonetheless. And let
me assure you this aging hipster is about 20 years past caring whether you, or
anyone else, thinks I\'m \"cool\". (I\'m sure you would agree that not caring if
anyone thinks you are cool is, hey, pretty damn cool).
Secondly, Airnate (as did Albatross) took my \"ribbing\" with good cheer. In my
book they are both \"menschs\", a pretty decent compliment in these parts. My
\"awards\" may have taken a darker tone if I had been a participant in either of
the pools they scored in, but I do not bet supers or Ohio tracks.
Thirdly, DSipes. He may or may not have meant me when he referenced
\"pretentious folk (was this edited?) on here that post regularly\". On the off
chance that he may have been referring to me, it was my obligation as a
New Yorker to offer a reply. I am sure the changes to his Twitter page I
suggested are forthcoming. But in at least two instances, I was one of the few
posters who even took the time to reply to DSipes, even though my tone could
have been warmer. I guess in your mind it would have been better if I (like
most of my fellow posters) offered no response?
I am not certain who the \"little guys\" are. I am currently only wagering when
something interests me; I\'ve pushed less than $1,000 through the windows this
year (little guy). I do not enjoy the opulent lifestyle I am sure some of my
fellow posters enjoy; my credit is so bad many merchants will not accept my
cash (little guy). Due to my unfortunate \"reverse retirement\" (I lived like a
retiree, partying, gambling and golfing (and only working when necessary) until
I was nearly 30), I am 62 years old and still working my butt off (little guy).
I live in a modest 2 bedroom apartment with my wife, mother in law and five
cats (little guy).
So really Furioso, my pretentious prattle is the proverbial 10 pounds of shit
in a five pound bag. I use it occasionally to jump up on the porch and bark
with the big dogs like yourself. A psychologist might opine that I am utilizing
an extensive vocabulary and highly advanced writing style to compensate for
some shortcomings or insecurities, and I would probably agree with this
assessment.
I enjoy some clever badinage, and have had some good duels over the years with
JB, with the erstwhile Jimbo, with the Brilliant! Miff, with Comrade Curtis and
with Chuckles the Clown (and his various alter egos). Somehow we have
all remained cordial, all afflicted as we are with equihippicitis
(\"google\" this word and you will get interesting results).
BUT, if anyone, big guy or little guy, thinks I pretentiously poked at them, if
I\'ve libeled, if I\'ve slandered, if I\'ve defamed, here I am. I am fairly
certain that any post directed at me, by name or by implication, has not gone
unanswered. I\'ve probably even apologized in instances where it really was not
necessary. So if I\'ve insulted someone, big guy or little guy, like the
manatee\'s t-shirt says: \"Come at me bro...\"
Well done Richie. A defence worth 10/10. I think you took it a notch too far when you went after dsipes and was commenting on his Twitter profile. That was bullying, and I guess you let your inner demon get the better of you there. The underlining \"sass\" that frequents the rest of your posts is just charming. Heck, even cool.
Richie, Chuckles the Clown goes over everything you put into print, immensely enjoys reading it and often understands it. The part about the Manatee\'s T Shirt, \"Come at me Bro\", likely, went completely over his head. Just have this feeling Chuckles would appreciate some elaboration on that point.
(That\'s 3!, though you have no idea how difficult that was!)
A bit later...Oh...and Chuckles has more skills than contextual 1st person communication, but is MTV still active? Jersey Shore?...oh man...Richie!...say it ain\'t so!
Richie facing a knife fight (https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+jersey+shore%2c+come+at+me+bro&qpvt=youtube+jersey+shore%2c+come+at+me+bro&view=detail&mid=53171F9873F416E507FC53171F9873F416E507FC&&FORM=VRDGAR)
Chuck:
Google \"GEICO Manatee\" and steer me clear of all knife fights.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck:
>
> Google \"GEICO Manatee\" and steer me clear of all
> knife fights.
Richie, THAT is hilarious! Love those Geico ads but had not seen that one.
Looks like we have a \"Chicken or the Egg\" question as to which came first, but funny is timeless!
Lastly, \"Its something you say to a friend\". Your contextual force is deep indeed.
Thank You
Manatee Shirts (https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=geico+manatee&view=detail&mid=BD4B3ED3A384C46D6F31BD4B3ED3A384C46D6F31&FORM=VIRE)
Next time JB focuses his ire for perceived misconduct, we have our response.
Third person still makes it about you.
reverse retirement
man that is classic
Here\'s a video from Elliot Walden of Winstar Farm discussing an issue with Justify.
Note he states pretty quickly the horse has had issues with \"Cracked Hooves\". During this account, his voice about falls off to inaudible, but with multiple plays and increased volume you may hear him allude to \"scratches\".
So...have we found the reason he was \"Late\" to the races? Is it still an ongoing issue? Some believed scratches is a condition similar to mold or rash, but is that what it really is for Justify, because if his hoof is indeed suffering cracks are the scratch\'s rash related or infection/seepage related?
Any vets here that can articulate why such a condition wouldn\'t be \"Thrush\" as opposed to scratches?
We are all ears:
Scratches / Thrush? \"Off and On\"? (https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=justify+youtube+preakness+prep&view=detail&mid=3CEC412F4793358829313CEC412F479335882931&FORM=VIRE)
Anyone know of history where a Triple Crown Race winner has prevailed on a 3/4 shoe? Can\'t come up with any records on that, only experience being with, on track, program changes. Tgraph may have that info, though never saw it in their Sheets, will review that next. Certainly would be nice to view his previous race shoeing.
Justify has reportedly put in two \"normal\" (That was the term used by the assistant) gallops since returning to the track.
Attached below is a photo of Justify\'s rear legs post re-shoeing. The \"horsey\" among us probably know the standard for the fore pasterns is 45 degrees. The standard for the rear pasterns being 50 to 55 degrees. What would you make that rear pastern angle here?
Look at the striation in the rear hooves themselves. Anyone think the left rear has more vertical striation than the right rear? What do you think? (Certain this time this horse is Justify)
Not seeing a whole lot of shock absorbing ability for a horse weighing near 1300 pounds. Looks like bang, bang, bang, bang. That\'ll cause a hoof to crack. In fact wouldn\'t more vertical striations in the hoof keratin encourage hoof splintering with an upright pastern?
Its the second photo down, you\'ll have to click on it, link to the complete photo and scroll down.
Justify Standing (https://twitter.com/TomAmossRacing/status/994559277636423681?tfw_creator=raypaulick&tfw_site=raypaulick&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.paulickreport.com%2Fnews%2Ftriple-crown%2Fa-good-bounce-in-his-step-justify-continues-preakness-preparations-at-churchill-downs%2F)