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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Mstrlucky74 on April 05, 2018, 06:50:34 PM

Title: Pace and workouts
Post by: Mstrlucky74 on April 05, 2018, 06:50:34 PM
I never pay attention to any of these or race setup for how wide a horse may be. Anyone find these useful? Thanks
Title: Re: Pace and workouts
Post by: Mstrlucky74 on April 06, 2018, 06:21:07 PM
Why don\'t I ever get responses? Oh the anticipation.
Title: Re: Pace and workouts
Post by: ajkreider on April 06, 2018, 07:01:18 PM
Ok.

I often get suckered by works.  Audible\'s last race just goes to show that one ought not put so much stake in them.  Sharp Azteca pre-Pegasus is another, in the other direction.  Always Dreaming, etc.

That said, with regard to the Derby, Welsch knows his way around a workout, and horse flesh, so what he says matters.

The problem with pace is that it often doesn\'t work out like you think.  Lots of say, derbies, don\'t have the pace one expects - in either direction.  And even when it does, as with the Florida Derby, you have to be on the right horse (e.g., not Catholic Boy).  

Hell, the \"wide draw for two turns at GP\" was gold - until the last couple of months.  So the short answer to your question is, picking the horse that you think will put up the biggest fig is the better play that trying to find a longshot that will fall into the right trip.

Worth noting that its been a long time, at least a decade, since the top fig in the derby didn\'t win.