Well done on the Analysis. These kinds of Angles are never 100 percent but the anticipation of a Spring 3YO making another forward move isnt unrealistic. And in this case at 4-1 you were rewarded for tsking the risk to find.
I expect Tiger to essentially Pair today. Coming off an extended layoff he has already developed a lot. I would expect it to take more time if he can come close to getting back to his 10 Year Old Top.