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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: BitPlayer on February 16, 2018, 05:03:29 PM

Title: ROTW - Noble Indy Ground Loss
Post by: BitPlayer on February 16, 2018, 05:03:29 PM
Admittedly I don\'t have access to a head-on of the January 11 allowance race, but I don\'t get how Noble Indy has 4 lengths of ground loss versus Mississippi when he was lapped on all the way around.  Did Johnny just leave a path between the two?
Title: Re: ROTW - Noble Indy Ground Loss
Post by: Mstrlucky74 on February 16, 2018, 07:18:02 PM
Agree with Jerry\'s analysis. I do think High North is ready to explode.
Title: Re: ROTW - Noble Indy Ground Loss
Post by: Mathcapper on February 17, 2018, 02:49:56 PM
Estimated final odds based on Will Pays matrix:

#1: 13-1
#2: 2.6-1
#3: 18-1
#4: 26-1
#5: 3/2
#6: 8.6-1
#7: 22-1
#8: --
#9: 3.4-1
#10: 71-1
Title: Re: ROTW - Noble Indy Ground Loss
Post by: Fairmount1 on February 17, 2018, 02:53:33 PM
Edit.
Title: Re: ROTW - Noble Indy Ground Loss - & Surprises
Post by: Tavasco on February 18, 2018, 11:14:29 AM
So the Risen Star was a surprise to most. The results were unexpected. A stark reminder of form cycles go up and down.

5/2 on Noble Indy was a reasonable price (imo) the 5/1 m/l looked iffy from the get go. TG 1\'s this early in the year s/b suspect? The colt ran OK seemingly a mild regression.

PRINCIPE GUILHERME, Assmussen\'s colt had that same # string pattern and did just what the analysis said he must not do which was wide both turns. The lack of any tactical speed is a negative for this one.

Instilled Regard was a vulnerable favorite and this performance was about what I expected. I respect Hollendorfer but as the analysis pointed out the colt had already developed a lot. Nice to see JH with a national presence.

Snapper Sinclair was unlucky to lose the race. For those that saw this colt making another forward move at least there was place. Tough beat. What to think about this one going forward?

Bravazo 20/1 for a border line contender is a green light for me generally.  Calumet seems to be doing some things right and nice to see both them and D. Wayne heading for the big dance unless they over race him.

Nobody had to tip me on Franco Geovanni this week in the turf stakes @ SA. But I\'m still not sure which is his first name and which is his last.

One of those races where it was silent just after the finish. What happened?
Title: Re: ROTW - Noble Indy Ground Loss - & Surprises
Post by: Mstrlucky74 on February 18, 2018, 01:20:18 PM
TO be honest the results aren\'t that surprising.
Title: Re: ROTW - Noble Indy Ground Loss - & Surprises
Post by: toppled on February 19, 2018, 08:23:24 AM
His 1st name is Geovanni and his last name is Franco.