Kudos on the race selection this week, a very interesting puzzle that once upon a time would have generated a serious handicapping discussion on this board......
Agree totally with Daisy being a horrible favorite, weight, outside post, lack of # power, although fastest early could get hung out 3-4 deep with a short run into the turn with plenty of speed inside her. She was in Florida and returned to Fair Hill and shipped back? I can see this one out of the tri, even if she clears into the turn the effort & weight will do her in.
CS Incharge has her last 2 on off tracks and 2 before on the grass, Rosario should be very aggressive from the rail, then again you never know about him.Bred better for brown than green and to go long this one interests me down the road but not with today’s pace scenario. 9f on the grass in her 3rd start as a 2yr old.
Blonde Bomber can’t be argued with as the TG choice and she should sit a nice trip behind the speed girls. I think you can toss out the FG race, many don’t run well there and she fired a bullet 12 days after. Three things I do not like about her but certainly not enough to leave her out of the exacta.
1) She will be a solid 2nd choice at 5/2 or 3/1
2) Gold has quite the case of seconditis at Gulf this winter. 2 wins & 11 2nd’s
3) 5 tries to break her maiden at Gulf in the summer all at less than 2/1
Belles Orb has a win over the track, off a pair, Centeno & Keneally do pretty good work together at Tampa.
Mihrab is the one I like the most, price will be right, no higher than 4th choice,huge Jockey upgrade to Jose, watch the replays Wow, coming in off a pair, 6lbs from Daisy & 4 from B.B. bred to go long, Tiznow’s jump 3 pts. from 2-3 and the dam routed a 4 as a 3 yr old.
So Refined is the wild card, moving forward off a bad start, off track & off the turf maiden breaker, a win at the distance over the track, drops 6 lbs and FTL,let’s throw in 2 very nice works & a trainer on the job less than a year is 50% in the exacta for the meet.......
The Play:
A 4 horse tri ðŸ"¦ with B.B. Orb, Mihrab & So Refined, A tri keying Mihrab first & second around the other 3.
Exacta’s keying Mihrab in the top 2 spots with the other 3 with an extra 🥊 with him on top of the 3.
A win bet at anything close to the ML makes sense unless he is at the end of a horizontal?
Good luck and a great race to cap,
Frank D.
I agree with you Frank.
Motion has been good lately
So Refined getting the 1st Lasix @15-1 is attractive as well
If Daisy was taking her regular turn and coming back in 3-4 weeks id play her to run a new top..maybe 7ish and that could get the job done here but she\'s not. Think a health issue occurred and forced her to the sideline. So now it\'s a guess whether she needs a race or will ever be 100%. With that said would not be at all surprised if she ran a great race for the win but also wouldn\'t be surprised if she X\'ed.
Like your tri. So Refined is the key to a payday. Hard to believe that she\'ll be 15-1. Last out fig is only one point slower than fastest, the fave. The 6 pounds and the Lasix makes her a must play.
BB has the huge back figs, but doesn\'t appear to have an excuse in the last. Will get the pace she needs here, though. Maybe Mihrab is a slow work horse, but those are uninspiring. Did not make up any ground against a fast pace in the last. She looks one-paced to me. Belles Orb has been working great.
Daisy worries me a bit more than you. She\'s shortening up big time here, which fits her style. I am concerned about the post and the weird Fair Hill trip.
Will play your tri, replacing Mihrab with Daisy. Maybe use Mihrab on the bottom of some exactas just in case. If it\'s your way, you will get paid.
I\'d say Belles Orb 1st, Daisy 2nd. Cold exacta. Only going by the numbers. Interesting race indeed.
FYI -- estimated final odds based on Will Pays matrix:
#1: 6.3-1
#2: 2.8-1
#3: --
#4: --
#5: 5-1
#6: 7.4-1
#7: 27-1
#8: Even
I keyed the 7 couldn’t resist the odds Tapizar baby’s seem to move up a lot at 3 years old,FTL.
Let you know in about 15 minutes
No Bueno