Gents,
What are horseplayers\' thoughts on playing in the January Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship cash tournament considering its a first of its kind without an entry fee, if you play on-track?
I\'m very curious why someone would not play in this tournament if a player bets roughly 5k per day on big days, given the high prize structure?
Even small players could bet what they normally bet and see if they hit something early on in the tournament, then pull out if they\'ve reached their bankroll limit.
http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/contests/pegasus-world-cup-betting-championship
Sincerely,
Oddball, Headgear lover, Pick6Boy, Guru, Winner of HPWS/DMR/SA tournaments, BCBC two time second place finisher, et al
~Sir Horseplayer Christian Hellmers
PS Compete against me if you dare...
How could a minnow such as myself (wagered approximately 10k for all of 2017) compete against a TV celebrity?
I am however looking forward to the race itself, if a prepped to the picogram Sharp Azteca is entered. The cat and mouse with SA and GR on the front end could be rather interesting.
Best of luck sir, and I\'m hoping that \"Oddball\" is an homage to Donald Sutherland\'s character in \"Kelly\'s Heroes\".
Good to meet you. This tournament might be too much for a player betting only 10k per year unless you have a very strong opinion that is worth seeking private investors. However, I would invite you to start playing for fun from home to work out that decision-making muscle for small cash games, like the one at Santa Anita this past weekend, $500 ($300 bankroll / $200 entry fee).
The other option is to team up with 10 friends/investors and put one person in charge of the bets as a syndicate. Wait is that collusion? Nope it is not according to their rules. Rally a crew and do your best to have a life altering weekend! The only way to get profitable as a tournament player or everyday player imho is to master the equilibrium value point between discipline and risk. Most, like me, had to learn the hard way. Bet the hard way in low bankroll cash tournaments until you\'ve mastered your strengths and weaknesses or team up with others. Those are my initial thoughts off the cuff.
C
You asked for players\' thoughts. Here are a few questions specific for you that I am curious about your thoughts.
Doesn\'t the requirement to make you churn the entire amount of your bankroll in this tournament take away from your so-called \"freedom?\"
Doesn\'t the rule along with a few other rule changes compared to the BCBC below not fit with your comments on Byk\'s show in November of \"letting freedom ring?\"
• FRIDAY: Players must bet a minimum total of $4,000 on at least 5 races ($800 per race minimum.) If they do not fulfill this requirement, they will be effectively eliminated from the contest as of the start of Saturday’s races.
http://stevebyk.com/broadcast/hour-2-andy-serling-shelly-blodgett-bill-gallo-christian-hellers/
Scroll to 1 hour 32 minutes for others\' to review if interested. Several minutes in are the comments that prompted the questions above. Many more q\'s come to mind as well.
PS-You didn\'t mention that if someone doesn\'t play their entire bankroll (like when you mentioned they could play until they reach their bankroll limit and withdraw) that they would incur a $500 penalty aka \"hospitality fee.\" Do you know a loophole written vaguely to avoid this penalty so that it would only deduct \"points\" after a final score is posted? Asking for a friend........
See you at the minnow pond Mr.Bee
I appreciate your thoughts. Happy to chime in more later.
Yes I believe in more freedom of betting/wagering choice and less rules because I see cash games as a great way to inspire regular players to take advantage of lower takeouts, to attract newcomers to experiment with our game, and to encourage big bettors to show what they are made of publicly. It\'s easier for everyday horseplayers to transition into cash games, not the fake betting arbitrarily assigned mythical games, if the rules mirror everyday betting and options with little interference. Most US horseplayers are skeptical of anything new because of distrust from previous experience with industry officials and a lack of customer service. If introduced in super simple formats, anyone making big bets at the track should shift their dollars into the tournaments to help grow the only segment in racing with any momentum.
It\'s truly shocking to me that the executives who designed the original fake betting mythical qualifiers elected to remove choice from the races, effectively limiting the horseplayers\' to 10-15 races per contest disregarding any proper money management skills since every bet denomination is identical. I surmise profits were more important to these individuals in charge of these decisions but I can also see lack of vision being a contributing factor. The fact that the NHC isn\'t pick and pray is another shocker to me. Those companies and individuals who decided to avoid investing in basic web-based technology to allow players race choice have encouraged horseplayers to be lazy and less savvy imho. This is what separates the profitable from the unprofitable- knowing what races to target on a given day and when to adjust bankroll using Kelly equation or some form of it because the value is straight nectar.
But back to your point about freedom. The tournament operators insist on an arbitrary bankroll amount and entry fee that feels right based on current feedback and participation from existing players as well as to cover their operating costs. The KDBC chose 20k in year 1 and earned less than 70 players. The following year they shifted the requirement to 12k and roughly doubled their entrants. In my opinion, the goal of tournaments should be to create a monumental tournament circuit structured such that more players can earn a serious living and play professionally due to the slashed effective takeout of cash games. That is, if you win a cash tournament or finish in the top 5 consistently over time. This could get televised IF the stakes were high enough and the personalities captured all gamblers imaginations. Personally, I believe the entry fees should be greater but that\'s my preference, I\'d like closer to 50-50. The current BCBC is 25% entry fee and 75% bankroll.
Do you have an issue with the fact that a tournament director requires a certain bankroll and do you like the aforementioned entry fee and bankroll splits? Do share your ideas!
I\'d like the focus of the rules, regulations, and formats to crown the most profitable players and performances in our industry since many of us are in hiding. This could attract hedge fund traders to attempt to outsmart horseplayers because it\'s an intriguing game and betting has always been cool and sexy. It would also invite an audience to watch unique gamblers lose large sums of money. That\'s what people want to see i.e. see reality shows like Survivor and the Bachelor where people are eliminated. People want to their weekly dose of catharsis every now and then- why not on personable horseplayers and their bad beats and disgusting decisions. If you create a tournament that doesn\'t allow horseplayers to adjust their bet size and bet based on their opinions, you create a game that removes this component and it\'s not about ROI (as much) which isn\'t as interesting in today\'s competitive entertainment landscape to many of those in my generation. Keep in mind I also won the fake betting Horseplayer World Series for 270k years ago because of my betting style and not luck and watching people throw darts at bombs isn\'t exciting because it\'s not a high enough probability game. Reflecting on my opinion on the ideal tournament landscape, I believe cash games will eventually need to have 2-3 levels- beginners and advanced leagues based on a point system scored over the years with different bankroll requirements. Unfortunately, I\'ve yet to meet anyone in racing who is willing to invest in technology to solve many tournament issue. I\'ve spoken to TVG and several others who could elevate the tournament space, yet they don\'t do a thing. DRF elects to do a fake betting tournament because they don\'t want to invest in becoming an ADW and their agreement with DRF Bets prevents them from doing cash games is my understanding. That\'s not an excuse to skip out on paying horsemen and stakeholders. It\'s also not encouraging horseplayers to exude money management skills which irritates me deeply. DRF took the easy way out and did another ordinary fake betting mythical tournament. Tournament leadership but I\'ll do everything in my power to shift that this year as I become more vocal and share the views of many passionate horseplayers.
From conversations with people over the years I\'ve gathered that many horseplayers refuse to play cash tournaments due to rules and regs in addition to bankroll sizes and travel logistics. As it stands today in 2018, I\'m still surprised more regular players don\'t save up and enter these tournaments given that our industry consists of more than 100-150 players regularly betting 2-5k per day. I\'m going to create some incentives of my own this year. I\'ll do my best to reward you if you do well by interviewing winners on Periscope like I did last weekend at Santa Anita during their first cash game of the tournament. Robert Talstra played superb and has an outstanding record to date. Who knew? Well the world will now. Take a look at my Twitter by finding me at RaworDie and you\'ll see what I mean. It\'s time the media does a better job of covering tournaments and the unprofessional bias removed. I\'ve lost complete faith in many of the so-called journalists and \"marketeers.\" My goal is to take the cash games to the level of the World Series of Poker which means it\'s time to turn the focus on the actual stars who take the big shots and fall or prevail. Fake betting dart throwers not invited. That\'s what I intend to do on Twitter all year- celebrate the true profitable legendary betting performers of this challenging game and shift attention away from the unprofitable talking heads who get air time with few credentials and refuse to accurately document their recommendations, picks, and ROI. They will get exposed this year. Mark my words.
C
So it\'s true? The tourney is very undersold?
richiebee Wrote:
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>
> I am however looking forward to the race itself,
> if a prepped to the picogram Sharp Azteca is
> entered. The cat and mouse with SA and GR on the
> front end could be rather interesting.
Don\'t forget about Collected who would also be up there near the front.
Twelve horse field going 9f\'s at GP makes for a hot pace if one or more of the front end types draws outside.
I\'m a little interested in Stellar Wind now that she\'s in the Brown barn.
She\'s mostly been a stalker presser type but came from off the pace in the FM Distaff when they ran at Keeneland a couple years back.
richiebee Wrote:
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> How could a minnow such as myself (wagered
> approximately 10k for all of 2017) compete against
> a TV celebrity?
Always with the negative waves . . . .
War Story ran just as fast as GR in the BCC
The big problem with this contest (and some others) is that I can\'t play it from my desk. It requires an investment of time, and to a lesser degree, expenses. Considering these guys own Xpressbet you would think this would be a soluble problem.
For those of you who don\'t know Christian, yes, he talks like that as well. But he\'s not the goofball they made him out to be on the show, before that he was the American Head of Business Development for a company called Betfair, and he does care and have ideas about about growing the game. Those of you who first were exposed to TG through the Betfair promotion have him to thank for making himself a royal pain in my butt.
But in general, we need as much discussion of this kind on this site as possible. So here\'s one thing (of many) Christian and I argued about recently-- on a macro level, what effects are handicapping contests having on the industry?
Jerry,
You can play the Pegasus from your desk. Check the rules. No need to go to the track but you gotta pay an entry fee which doesn\'t make sense to me given the track and ADW are owned by Stronach. You have no excuse for not playing as we argued unless the entry fee is too high for you. But I\'ve seen you play in the BCBC and the BCBC entry fee is way higher so take a swing as the card should be loaded with quality racehorses to choose from or avoid supporting one of the best cash tournaments on the planet because of expenses and time.
As you know , I will do almost anything for this game as I dedicated 4 years of my life lobbying for the betting exchange on behalf of Betfair and leading the TVG-Betfair acquisition along with Greg Nichols for $50M. Thanks for the kind words and respect. The contests (as we argued) could lure gamblers from other arenas such as fantasy sports and poker IF the tournament structure is simple, televised one way or another to stroke egos, and enjoyable i.e. set up to allow betting with friends. Racing can no longer sit on an island and it must consider making the tournaments more attractive to \'potential\' horseplayers. If that means creating all in moments, then let\'s do it. If that means creating lineups with your favorite horses on the day like in fantasy football with weighted salaries (ie odds), then let\'s do that too. If the tournament directors start forcing players to bet too many races a day with arbitrary minimums and limiting the social aspect of betting together due to collusion fears, we will be headed for a lonely boring game amongst ourselves. The only way to answer your question Jerry is to experiment over a 3-5 year plan and I will do my best to start capturing the stories when I do attend.
For a game struggling to attract younger fans / players something tells me a $10k buy in(or whatever they are) for a tournament doesn’t seem like the right approach to me. If i were a power that be, I’d focus on building the next generation of horse players, like my self (31).
bluechip21 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For a game struggling to attract younger fans /
> players something tells me a $10k buy in(or
> whatever they are) for a tournament doesn’t seem
> like the right approach to me. If i were a power
> that be, I’d focus on building the next
> generation of horse players, like my self (31).
Your point is one that occurred to me, as well. The challenges for the sport are multi-faceted and plentiful, and certainly won\'t be solved by high end tournaments. However, it needn\'t be an either/or approach. I didn\'t invest much time in reading Christian\'s proposals because most of it is above my pay grade, but I strongly suspect that if he and JB were on the same page with this, they could come up with a game plan that would hit the sweet spot for the serious players with serious bank.
But for the rest, the idea of affordable tournaments is a good thing, and we\'re seeing signs of that online, and I see it even in the hinterlands at Finger Lakes. Players love that kind of competition. I don\'t know what the saturation point is, but I doubt we\'re even close to it, and if there was a way to make the high end tournaments TV-friendly with a tie-in to TVG or some other media venue, all the better. The series that featured Christian, Beychok and others was highly entertaining. It\'s a shame the sport does not have a central command post to kick the tires on something like this, and provide a coordinated effort for analysis and implementation. But, that overall leadership void plagues the sport in nearly every aspect of its operation, already.
While I believe tournaments have a role in the gaming part of horse racing, the notion that tournaments with substantial buy-ins will attract new and younger players is a fantasy.Today\'s younger gambler has grown up with a need for instant gratification and I can think of no reason--and know no one-who has a desire to learn the intricacies of handicapping, money management and betting merely for the opportunity to \"buy-in\" to a tournament full of seasoned handicappers, who have spent the better part of a lifetime immersed in horse racing and have judgment and wisdom that take decades to develop. Many of the tourney sites, i.e. horse tourneys.com, DRF, have the right idea by offering feeders and qualifiers for recreational handicappers to sharpen their talents (or learn they have no talent). I have no idea whether those smaller qualifiers take away or add to the handle generally,but they have attracted me,I find them fun and it has not decreased (or increased) my overall betting. In term of the larger buy in tourneys, the issue is not whether I think I am a better handicapper than TGJB, Planet Helmers or others on this board--I am simply not prepared to spend $5k or $10k to find out.That money will carry me--and I suspect most everyone on this Board-for a fair period of regular playing.
This brings us back to a related issue that has been discussed from time to time on this board-sports betting. As most of you know the Supreme Court will soon decide the constitutionality of PASPA, the Federal statute that limits spots betting to 4 states, primarily Nevada. Roughly 13 states-including NY and New Jersey (which challenged the statute)already have states bring to go if, as many expect,PASPA is found to be unconstitutional .How big will this be?? In today\'s NY Times business section, Churchill Downs Inc.(the entity not the racetrack)made an offering to buy back $500,000,000 of its own stock. \"Hmm\" I said to myself and did a bit of digging. CDI just sold a mobile gaming company it owned for $990 million.So,it can afford to buy back its stock. The CEO of CDI was quoted as saying the sale of this division was to enable it to refocus on among other things its \"casino segment, Twinspires.com and OTHER FORMS OF REAL MONEY GAMING..(emphasis mine)\" What did CDI mean about \"real money gaming\". A bit more research. Well,it seems simultaneously with these corporate issues taking place, Kentucky now has proposed legislation to legalize sports betting if PASPA is overturned by the Supremes. And guess what Ky. administrative agency gets oversight responsibility if the new legislation becomes law--the Kentucky Horse racing commission.
All of this strongly suggests that the home of the Kentucky Derby (and this has been true for some time)recognizes where the next wave gambling dollars will come from--and sadly, it will not be from millenials, Generation X\'ers or the like who have decided to take up handicapping as a hobby--it will on sports betting.I suspect horse racing betting will continue as it has for years-on line, a few whales or computer syndicates,big race days and this Board of passionate followers. No one--is likely to be attracted by having to pay $5k or $10k to play in a big money tournament.
Wow great dialogue I hope it continues. Lots of different points to cover: 1) BCBC I was in the BCBC this past year with a partner and it was the best $5k I ever spent. We came in 11th and got dq\'d up to 10th which makes us one of nine people ever to be moved up in a handicapping contest! That aside, for the 10k we put in we got 2 free clubhouse admissions both days with grandstand seats at the 1/16 pole which retailed for about $1,000. We got free racing forms, programs, lunch and about 15 free drink tickets plus access to a paddock bar that was for tournament players only that was beautiful and held a free champagne toast both days for BCBC players. We also got about $150 off our hotel room for being in the tournament. All told I thought it was about $2,000 worth of free stuff. Even if we came in last, I\'m not sure how we could have spent a better 10k gambling the whole year.
2) Christian: Keep up the good work! You have the understanding of the contests and the stature to make a difference. I think the small contests where the winner gets a free entry into the big contests is the way to go. It\'s the dollar and a dream mentality the sport needs. I also agree about cash tournaments as opposed to the NHC tournament which forces you to bet certain races a certain way. the object of the game should be to maximize return. Hopefully, you and others can get in the ear of the NTRA and change that for good.
3) Our 31 year new player: The World Series of Poker is won almost every year by someone younger than 25 many of which played in small tournaments to get in. Take Christians advice and play these tournaments on paper until you hone your skills and then start entering the feeder tournaments. It will be a challenge and a low cost way to get started.
4) Advancing the game: So how much will Christian\'s Crusade help the game? Who knows but it can\'t hurt. The 800 pound gorilla in the room is horse ownership and how it almost impossible to make money owning horses. I own a small piece of about 15 horses some claimers some bought at auction and some bred. I would be happy to lose 20% of my investment each year but 40% is more like it.I do it because of my love of the game and the fact that my kids are out of college and I can afford it. Read Alan Schuback\'s article in the Paulick report about French racing. It\'s enlightening on the subject. Unless horse racing does something to make ownership more attractive, less and less people will buy and breed horses which makes the racing worse and the gambling less exciting. I would love to hear ideas on what racing could do.
5) Pegasus Handicapping Contest: I\'m in and I\'m issuing a challenge to Christian my score vs yours winner gets a free drink at the Breezeway bar. I\'m sure I will be buying but considering my overall bar tab my accountant won\'t notice. Hope to get a chance to speak with you there and let me know what we can do as players to help these contests grow
Richard,
Happy New Year and I hope you enjoyed your recent Vegas trip.
I read an article this morning where as many as 18 states are looking to get into the bookmaking business. Legalizing sports betting in that many venues involving several race tracks in the mix will be an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions. It will do absolutely nothing for racing and any income created would be mere crumbs.
Have we learned nothing from the mass of casino’s that open, siphon off money from existing casino’s putting them out of business and the deck is continually shuffling the same dollars to the newest place de jour? Video crack was going to save the racing industry. How many Genting customers go next door to Aqueduct to ever bet a race? The NYRA races cannot be found on a tv in any of the casino bars. Finger Lakes got video crack to save it. Paisan Cuomo opens a full fledged casino a stones throw away killing their VLT business, so the new casino as well as the HBPA are subsidizing the operation to maintain purse levels. Oh YEAH, so it doesn’t hurt too much will cut racing days and NYS will guarantee Delaware North the Finger Lakes casino operator tax breaks to protect their income level to what it was before the competing casino opened.
BRILLIANT: So we have a race track that cannot even come close to being self sustaining, a casino operator being subsidized by NYS, a new casino being held up by the state to subsidize a race track and now we can add sports betting......
I’ve owned a few businesses in my day and never had CHARITY as a business plan.
Granted this is NY but do you think the running contest between Illinois & Louisiana as to who can put more of their governors in jail will be a more transparent operation? Politicians will do what they do best, line the pockets of their cronies and themselves while robbing Peter to pay Paul. After all they will be out of office, in jail or not they will get their pensions and the cleaning up of their mess will be someone else’s problem.
Monmouth may be the possible short term exception to the rule as they have had an operational plan in place for several years. Christie threw racing under the bus there and dangled the sports betting carrot to the industry as its savior if it ever came? If it is indeed successful, worry not the next game of political football with a new administration will raid it in the name of education.
The pie is simply not big enough for the state to license, tax & take a revenue cut, the host track take their cut and for the bookmaker be it William Hill or whomever to turn a profit. The standard 11/10 vigorish on sports bets will not stand that many cooks in the kitchen. So what will they do? Raise the vig to 12/10 on parlays for sure,maybe 11.5 on straight bets, mess with money line payoffs etc.... Remember NYC OTB? The only bookie that ever lost money! They were guaranteed a 5-6% profit on every dollar they took in. How many of us would jump at a guaranteed return like that! No risk, 100’s of millions of dollars coming in just by unlocking the front door.
A bit off the contest topic but in the same vein that contests, give aways, gimmicks, slot machines or football betting will not do ANYTHING to “MAKE RACING GREAT AGAIN†FORGET ABOUT IT. Any business other than government that cannot be self sufficient is doing the dinosaur 🦕 walk.
Our beloved game has done nothing but self inflict wound after wound for the past 40 years. There will be no enhancing of the next generation of horse players guest experience because there is no next generation of horse players nor will there be. I’ll even define horseplayer in the most basic of terms as someone who will wager on horses & buy a racing form at least 10 times per year with one Wednesday in that number. Attend one live racing program once per year other than a big Saturday.
Frank D.
Oh I’ve been playing the game for about 3 or 4 years now. Which is still very young in the horse player world. As far as poker goes... no thanks. If I wanted to play card games, I’d play magic the gathering. I play the game because I love thoroughbred racing and I especially love the challenge a race presents.
As far as my original point goes... this sport needs fixing in a lot of ways (we all know this). I don’t think the drama surrounding tournement play is really worth wasting energy on. The BCBC and other formats may have their problems, but spending the time to complain about that is frivolous in my opinion. And more energy may be better spent figuring out what happens when half your player pool and client base dies off in the next 20 years.
Colin!
I appreciate your enthusiasm. It\'s hard to find healthy passion with many horseplayers these days. Challenge accepted as long as the conditions require either of us must turn our bankroll over 7 times. That is a minimum requirement to do well in these tournaments and surely you don\'t wish to make a bet between 50th place and 100th place :-) If both of us do well, then it\'s a proper bet. I play to win or go home with zero. I encourage you and others to do the same if you want to live life to its fullest! Either way, let\'s rap live. I\'ll be sitting with Duke Mattias or near him.
C
Here\'s the link to more on the tournament and you can play from your desk, phone, couch, or several Stronach tracks...
https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/xpressbet-exclusive-online-provider-500000-estimated-pegasus-world-cup-championship/
Thanks for the link.
Mrs Richiebee nixed my request for the 13K, even though I told her at my age I
wouldn\'t have many more chances to howl with the big dogs.
I will definitely be pulling for you, since I think I read that a portion of
your winnings will be donated to thoroughbred aftercare or disabled jockeys.
That would make you a real hero.
But then again, Oddball did say that \"To New Yorkers, a hero is some kind of
weird sandwich...\"
All kidding aside, I appreciate your efforts to grow the sport of thoroughbred
racing. I am not sure that handicapping tournaments are a means to that end,
but then again I am the person who once suggested that racetracks should send
representatives to GA meetings. Sounds crass and wrong, but the point is that
racing should be trying to attract folks who have already shown a propensity
for gambling. Maybe if sports gambling is legalized this sort of cross-selling
will be feasible. In my limited experience, racing has thus far dropped the
ball, because as has been pointed out, there are no monitors showing racing or
betting windows in the Resorts World casino which is adjacent to the Big A.
Yeah my son is 7 years younger than you and he loves that magic game. I am having a very different experience with horse racing than many that have been posting on this board. the breeders cup in Del Mar was an absolute first class experience. I take a trip every spring and fall to Keeneland where racing is very alive and well. I regret not buying a place in Saratoga as that town has exploded as far as real estate values and now they have some really improved restaurant and bar choices and the live music scene is fantastic. I try to make as many days in Saratoga as I can. Gulfstream has world class racing and an intimate venue which is good for the numbers that racetracks get on a given day. Sure NYRA in the winter is a disaster but there is a lot of fun to have these days if you are a horseplayer. Good luck to you and hope to see you at the races someday
You mean $84,000 in total bets over the 2 days?
Where are they hiding that fantastic live music scene in Saratoga? All I\'ve ever seen is cover bands, and SPAC.
One Caroline. It\'s mostly really good cover bands but they have some excellent young musicians who sprinkle in some original stuff. A lot of jazz and blues but I like that. Dango has the downstairs which is all cover bands but they have a couple with large brass sections that knock it out and get the crowd dancing. Jerry last year when I saw you in Saratoga i was at Siro\'s talking to 5 hot girls. Just call me when you are up there and I will get you to the right places
Colin,
Breaking news: The likelihood of Jerry Brown needing an after dark tour guide in any city is right up there with Donald Trump’s next resort being in Haiti or Nigeria!
Colin12 is right about one caroline. Local musician Chris Carey plays there often with 2 or 3 different line ups. Lot of original stuff.
Frank, line of the young year.
Having said that, if there\'s a buck in it he\'ll be there. Well, the resort will, anyway.
I was just sayin !
https://amp.democratandchronicle.com/amp/1028047001
FrankD. Wrote:
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> I was just sayin !
>
> https://amp.democratandchronicle.com/amp/102804700
> 1
I don\'t believe the words \"market saturation\" were included in the lexicon made available to those doing the financial forecasting. The really good news is that the Oneida Nation is about to open a casino in the Syracuse area, approximately an hour east of the beleaguered Del Lago Casino. The political machinations that led to the approval of Del Lago and other new casinos in NY would be fodder for a Carl Hiassen book if he ever runs out of material in Florida, which is, of course, impossible.
I have slowly transitioned away from parimutuel playing towards the tournament format, simply because I get a lot more action for my bankroll. However, I have found that after going through an entire \"tournament\" card, I am better able to find some good spot plays and thus have increased my ROI. Like everyone here, I love the game and am concerned about how tournament play may take $$ out of the hands of the various stakeholders. Is there a correlation between tournament play and an increase in actual handle, at least individually?
As someone who struggles to meet FrankD\'s definition of a recreational handicapper more and more these days even though my kids are grown and I do have more time on my hands than expected, I\'ll throw my hat in.
Troubles within the industry are accurately depicted everywhere on this board, however I wager less and less each year for no other reason than handicapping takes far too much time than ever with less value plays to be found. Recreational handicapping is a mutually exclusive term in this environment. Good or bad, all on this board take pride in their handicapping and want value for their time and money. Adding time to learn rules and regs of a tournament that I most likely do not have time for is not going to bring my wagering dollar back.
The hedge fund manager in most cases is going to be more interested in taking a one in a million shot at getting his picture taken in the WC on the first Saturday in May than dedicate the time and resources required to do well at a given tourney.
As a prospective returnee, and someone who will wager zero money on the Pegasus this year, someone who is tired of watching dollars bet on 30% trainers, and someone watching betting menus expand and pools thin out, I say if you can experiment for 3-5 years with something, level the betting field for one race per year for now. We have two people here it seems that could attempt to do that. Ten horses in the Pegasus this year, create a separate win pool, run all at equal weights if there are allowances, send all off at 8.50-1. Let TG or someone create a teletimer spread and we can wager accordingly. Obviously, it can\'t be that simple, but for a single race once a year, it\'ll attract my dollars back to start.
the idea of the technology (http://www.fee.mba/2017/09/11/technology/) is coming from the ancient eras.
Wow! The Friday card at Gulfstream is stellar. One of those cards you will never ever forget. This is a day of racing to really get excited about to bet a mandatory $4,000.00 on five races!!!! Look at this Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship Day 1 Tournament event and tell me you aren\'t excited to shove $12,000 into this \"most player friendly handicapping tournament.\" This is the way the sharpest minds in the game should play!!
1. MdnClm$20k, Turf
2. Clm$12.5k
3. MdnClm$25k
4. Clm6250
5. Clm6250
6. Starter Optional Claim $16k/$25k, Turf
7. Clm$16k, Turf
8. Clm$30k
9. Clm$16k, Turf
10. AlwOpClm$25k (the feature I presume?)
11. MdnClm$12.5k
I get your point but why, purely from a betting contest standpoint, does the type of races matter? If they have full fields and/or wide open races, with horses in form or rounding into form, does it matter if they re 6,250 claimers or NW3x allowance?
At GP, The Nw1x and 2x usually have a Pletcher or Brown odds on favorite and relatively short fields. Would I prefer more quality races with larger fields, of course. I\'m assuming Pegasus day has all of the undercard stakes and listed stakes, similar to last year.
If you don\'t like the betting card on Friday, it will force you to have a more strategic view of the races and play in such way to try and preserve your bankroll or lay it in on 1 or 2 races.
Just my opinion. Good Luck if you are playing.
johng032 Wrote:
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> with horses in form or rounding into form
I think the entire objection can be summed up here - you assume these horses are either a) in form, or b) rounding into form, and I have no idea why you think that\'s a safe assumption.
Seems pretty obvious to me that the bottom level races on a day near or on a huge day are ripe for skullduggery (think of Masochistic on Derby day), and therefore not events I want to gamble on.
IOW - It\'s the vegetable JUICE!
I am not playing. I do know a friend who was buying two entries to play at GP and cancelled his trip from the West Coast after seeing Friday\'s entries. His words were \"it is awful, just awful.\" I know one other person who said they will still play but they are disappointed in Friday\'s card. It matters. At least $24k not being wagered into GP\'s pools gone b/c of the Fri card being embarassingly bad. I\'m sure there will be others who don\'t play but maybe I\'m wrong.
The overflowing field sizes for Friday\'s card are as follows:
1. 8
2. 7
3. 7
4. 8
5. 9
6. 8
7. 10
8. 8
9. 11
10. 7
11. 12
Any guesses on the field size for the Rainbow 6 races on Sunday.....far larger than Friday\'s card?? Bet I know the answer to that one.
Mr. Peck,
As usual I admire the acuteness of the points you make. In this particular case and no slight to johng032\'s general assumptions (without facts) - going into any card, stray from the objective of gaining an advantage, as you suggest (I think).
On the subject of form cycle, rounding in, tailing off, bouncing forward or back my belief is form cycle facts are as important a component as is a runners performance potential. I have the data and the time consequently I will embark upon a study. Any related requests are welcome.
Included within that discussion is the question - is form cycle more predictive as a function of race\'s class or quality. Believing Fairmount to be a true fan of the sport, a traditionalist if you will. I\'m thinking his complaint is not related to handicapping as much as it is to the spectacle, the pagentry. the preparation and promotion of the event and its lead up.
But just guessing?
Tavasco,
I’ll weigh in and save you sometime on your reasearch pertaining to A pair of classifications that the Gulfstream “Championship Meet†writes 3-4 times per day other than a handful of Saturday’s.
The bottom level of 6250 is the Ouchies with back numbers Derby.... Most days 80% of the field has a back TG # that would wreck their field. They are cripples, claimed off Navarro for 25K, a step away from being ridden in someone’s back yard as pets or worse..... You never know who will pop up and run on any given day or what they were given pre race to make them get back to that old number one last time. There are days when this class is written for 3 dances. Total crap shoot which would be fine in a phantom contest, not real money.
The 2nd is the maiden 12500 claimer, Senor ðŸ May want to chime in with a 3rd as he is as disgusted with the 16K maiden Turf claimer as I am with my 2.
The best example I can give as to how bad this at least once daily heat is on Friday 1/12 in the 5th & 7th races. A pair of TAP throw aways one a Paul Pompa home bred with some decent lineage the other a Starlight 120K yearling purchase.
Both were sent out for maiden 50K in their first starts which is a fire sale sign in that barn. Both were dropped in for 12500 in their 2nd lifetime start, both won, dollars to donuts you will never see or hear from either again, not an uncommon Pletcher occurrence!
Fairmount is far to young to be a traditionalist. He loves the game but seems a bit disappointed by the content of the contest that will save racing.
The Saturday card hopefully when drawn tomorrow will come up awesome with 7 stakes @ 125K & up plus The Stronach Derby, Sunday with a 15 mil plus mandatory 🌈 the fields will be Chuck Full😎
Frank D.
Mr. D.,
Like you, I’ve followed Fl. Racing quite a while. I did however, miss the news of the Sunday mandatory announcement. When was that announced or was there a set date or jackpot size. Noticed it not mentioned in their news 2 days ago. I see it on their site, but do you recall when and they’re reasoning. With a great card and a room full of contest players, I’m sure many will channel the Dan Borislew, R.I.P. move from a few years back. Thanks if you happen to know
I looked at the card. It is a pretty bad collection of horse flesh but it doesn’t change my outlook on the contest. I’m confident that I can find enough action on the card to make it worthwhile. It will turn off some like your friend and he/she will likely find another track to play. If I don’t have enough strong opinions, I’ll stick the money back in my pocket.
Al B Tross,
They announced it about 2 weeks ago. If you look at the rainbow rules on their site, they can basically decide arbitratorly on a mandatory payout at any time by written request.
It’s all about the handle number there, nothing more and the Stronach tracks bend over backwards to the Bot teams to that effect. I wish Miff was still posting here as he and a Blood Horse writer have done extensive investigation on this topic including filling a freedom of information act with NYRA. Bot teams account for roughly 20% of the pools at the major US tracks.
Great business move the 🌈 will get hammered on a mega handle day and they will get a 2nd windfall the following day. I don’t foresee a Dan Borislew type event happing before Sunday unless it’s someone’s phone # with 4 horses paying north of 20/1 in the sequence. There has been a building Tsunami of cash into it since the announcement. A 20 mil pot would not surprise on Sunday.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Thank You!
Can you bet the contest from North Carolina? 12 states in this country cannot participate and thus, pools are reduced. Sure I can try to find a dead relative in Florida to play, but what if I win? Not worth the hassle.
NCTONY
I don\'t play tournaments, so I have no skin in this game, but I note that this tournament has been over for 5 hours and I find zero articles on DRF, Bloodhorse, or Paulick Report about the results. I was able to find out who won, but that\'s not the point. Part of the argument for tournaments is that they give recognition to (or feed the egos of) horseplayers. Making that work requires publicity.
Eddie Olcyck former Ranger, and handicapper wins it. He is fighting Colon Cancer.
Great story.
NCTONY
DRF posted a story yesterday.
http://www.drf.com/news/clock-ticking-down-olczyk-puts-biscuit-basket
That seems to be the trend in these live money contests: to win, you have to cash a big bet on an exotic.