Would have been a good day to buy the sheets. That P4 would have been a nice present
Woulda, shoulda coulda. Curious how he looked on Ragozin.
At the risk of redboarding, I\'d like to pose a question that went through my mind as Zanotti sat extremely \"cold\" on the board... when calculating your edge with a given bet, are there different variables to consider depending on what class of race it is?
In other words, would you be more apt to regress yours odds line to the market numbers in a claiming race vs a stakes race?
Obviously the TG numbers are the absolute best at quantifying what can be quantified but if a horse doesn\'t even take close to the money he should, at what point do the subjective variables at least somewhat counteract the objective ones?
Mc990 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
At the risk of redboarding, I\'d like to pose a question that went through my mind as Zanotti sat extremely \"cold\" on the board... when calculating your edge with a given bet, are there different variables to consider depending on what class of race it is?
This reads as if you bought the TG analysis for Aqu and then bet Zanotti, then doubted as the tote price edged upwards and now want credit for betting someone else\'s work and opinion. What part of this complex are you most proud of? Now - please no offense intended I think it\'s just my reaction to Christmas. Taking a chance that you wanted feedback to your post
In other words, would you be more apt to regress yours odds line to the market numbers in a claiming race vs a stakes race?
I can\'t claim any objective evidence but I imagine an overlay or long shot in this case is caused by the same phenomena in Japan as, Dubai, as US etc.
Obviously the TG numbers are the absolute best at quantifying what can be quantified but if a horse doesn\'t even take close to the money he should, at what point do the subjective variables at least somewhat counteract the objective ones?
Assume, the tote is a battle of reasons to invest vs reasons not to invest. I\'m guessing now, but I suspect the J.A. Varga Jr. jockey fan club was out numbered by the dollars spent by the other pilots fans. As for conditioners the \"don\'t Juan Carlos Guerrero\" dollars lost a few devotees yesterday.
The good and the bad of it is apparently not enough bettors use Thorograph. Expecting depressed prices next week. Ho Ho Ho and a Merry Christmas to all!
interesting question, and I\'ll reference yesterday\'s stakes race at GP where XYZ ran away from the field - at 3/5 I believe - after a year layoff. By my TG handicapping he was not in the top 4 to win. Or 5 if you thought TAP was on the improve (which I did).
There\'s a lot of crazy BS going on at GP with trainers - at least before the serious meet starts after Jan 1. Watch the JKys in races you are wondering about. If there\'s none or just 1 that are winning at 15%, either don\'t play or look at TG J/T figs. The TR that have high % - and you\'ve never heard of them in NY/KY/CA - then bettor beware. Exception might be Stanley Gold, who doesn\'t venture out.
Didn\'t buy the analysis but I did buy the sheets and anyone with even a begginer\'s level of understanding could deduce that the horse was a huge overlay based on the data. Yes, I bet him but that\'s mostly irrelevant to the question at hand
I think you mostly missed the point of my post and the crux of the question I posed but I will agree with you on your point that obviously not enough bettors are using TH.
Didn\'t buy the analysis but I did buy the sheets and anyone with even a beginner\'s level of understanding could deduce that the horse was a huge overlay based on the data. Yes, I bet him but that\'s mostly irrelevant to the question at hand
I think you mostly missed the point of my post and the crux of the question I posed but I will agree with you on your point that obviously not enough bettors are using TG.
I\'d be less concerned in a grade 1, where you can assume everyone is well intentioned vs a cheap claimer where the lack of support could make one concerned about what the connections know/intend. I\'d put more weight on the health of the pattern - an ouchy line with a lack of support might make me second guess. All the above is generally speaking, haven\'t looked at the race in question.