My partners and I hit the NTRA guaranteed wager today (where no favorites or second favorites won). Imagine my chagrin when I was told by my wagering site that \"it would be a couple of hours before the payoff is available.\" \"Why is that?\" I inquired. \"So the boys in St Kitts can continue to punch tickets on the wager?\" I think the sub $4000 payoff says more about the integrity of the pools than anything I
could post.
They should indict Tim Smith and the NTRA under the RICO statute. I will NEVER play a multi-track on scan bet again...
could not agree more...a grand idea f***ed up again by those who have no clue.
I second that Catalin.
How it can take hours to calculate the winner is beyond me.
So much for instilling confidence in the betting public.
What a joke.
I guess I should not complain when I win but this was just mind-boggling to say the least.
Chris
The irony is that they have a Wagering Task Force which was initially created because of manipulation due to the time it took to transfer pk6 wagers. Part of the portfolio of the Task Force is to deal with the perception created because of late odds changes, yet their house bet takes longer to process than any other bet offered. Why you can get probable pk4(& even pk6 in NY) pays before the race goes off at every track in the country, but have to wait up to 2 hrs after the race for the NTRA pk4, is something that Mr Commissioner, as he supposedly requires his employees to call him, needs to address.
If my math is correct based on the win odds of the 4 winners, the bet should have paid around $1,700 for $1. The only horse higher than 4 to 1 was Ticker Tape at 12 to 1.
Does not excuse the delay for the payoff to be calculated but I don\'t think you were ripped off.
And since I have logged in to post its only fair to thank TG (and Desormeaux for getting the jump on the Japanese horse)for my winning wager on Ticker Tape. Made up for the tough beat with Newfoundland an hour earlier.
Having played more PK4\'s than most (generally one or two each race day), I\'d have to disagree.
No favorites or second choices won any of the four legs, likely eliminating anyone that used a single. Request for Parole was a tepid 8-1 ML (and its generally the ML odds that influence the selections in each leg), and Ticker Tape was one of 6 or 7 you had to use. In an informal poll of those around me at the simulcast site people came up with estimates of $15K to $40K for a buck. The last big one I hit (Derby Day) had winners at $40, $11, $11, and $10 and paid $37,000 for $2.
Should have taken the $10K I was offered for the ticket before they posted the payoff.
Peace Rules- second choice with Jerry Bailey. Quantim Merit - not all that easy to have. Ticker Tape- must use on both sets of sheets many players ,even the wise sheet guys tend to stick to things they know and don\'t use alot of euros.Request for Parole -third choice and inside while the favorite or one of them is in the 12 hole. What really shocks me is that people at the local simo center could be wrong on their estimates like that . So you made a bad decision not to take the 10 dimes for the ticket don\'t beat yourself up.
I thought the NY horse going to KY (and on the juice) was a \"hand on the bible\" bet for NY guys - it certainly is in KY.
If you guys really want action on the delay of the payoffs, and not just to blow off steam, the way to get it is to write a well thought out letter to the editor of the DRF, signed by a group of you, and indicating you bet serious money. Nothing gets the industry\'s attention like being embarrassed in public.
As for the payoff, I didn\'t think it was low. The issue of singles matters a lot more in pick 6\'s-- the only ones to whom it matters in pick 4\'s are small bettors, and they don\'t affect the odds much. I didn\'t play the pick 4 (instead focusing on the Hol pick 6, which I did think came up short), but every P4 winner was at least a contender on TG, and given the odds, presumably on other data as well.
It\'s interesting-- every once in a while someone posts about how the abundance of sheets must be killing prices. Well, it doesn\'t seem to affect straight prices-- last week Titanium Ghost was a bet on TG, and also to at least some of the Rag guys, and it paid $24. Ticker Tape, same story, paid $26. On the other hand, exotics combining sheet horses seem to get pounded-- I was all over the tri in the 2yo filly stake at Bel last week, and when they crossed the line I thought I had made a score-- the winner(6/5) laid over the field, the two 5/2 shots were slow throwouts, and the second and third fastest fillies were 10 and 12 to 1. I played just those 3, extra with the winner on top, and thought the tri figured to pay $150-200. It came back $86. Likewise the 10th at Hol yesterday, where the exacta with the two I was interested in-- who were not that obvious on paper-- got absolutely crushed, ultimately paying $7.70 for $1.
I think the reason the exotics get pounded is its easier for a lot of people(me included) to throw a 12-1 or 15-1 shot in the pick 4 or tri, rather than put a couple large ones on its nose(unless it looked as good as Ticker Tape did )I think even the casual guy wants a couple shots to throw into his mix. Then you also have the larger take-outs in the exotics
Interesting how two people with the same ticket can think so differently. Yes, I was frustrated by the delay. However, I was hoping to get 10k back for my $5 ticket on the pick-4. Parly was about 2000 for $1. I was absolutely ecstatic when it paid double my expectations.
I don\'t know how often you play pk 4 but that was a very low payoff considering the field size and lack of any first or second fav. winning.
OPM,
People are now wired in to Catalin\'s cell phone signal and listening in to what your syndicate is doing after your Derby Day score and many others.
Also it looks like I picked a bad day to go to Calder. LOL
I don\'t play pick-4 everyday, so I could be wrong, but I just don\'t see how it can be low.
$8.40
$13.40
$11.00
$26.00
Peace Rules (my single) was the 2nd choice, Quantum Merit was 4th choice, Request for Parole was 3rd choice. The only \"price\" horse was in the race that looked absolutely wide open (if the Japanese horse didn\'t fire), so I am guessing those playing larger tickets had to spread there.
For me, I wasn\'t disappointed in the price. I was pretty shocked to see this thread about the price being so short, one guy saying he turned down 10k for the ticket.
about 90% of my play is in the pick four.
there were three 2nd choices and a 3rd choice using BRIS rankings. the point of this is, if something as generic as the formula they use to assign their power rankings came up with this, i\'m surely not surprised at the payoff.
doing a good job at predicting pick four prices involves more than just looking at odds and field size. you really need to examine perceived randomness in race types and expected odds skewness. the pick four, in my opinion, offers the best wagering opportunity around on a daily basis.
now if you really want to hear about a low pick four. last summer at saratoga ... ;-)
Silver:
That\'s why he has an encrypted phone!!!! The # that people then hear are actually Ragonzin #\'s so it actually bumps up our price!!! Hope you can make it to Vegas for the BC(I hope I can make it)
I\'ll take it at face value that the parlay was $2000.
How anyone thinks they are entitled to 10k on a 2k parlay is beyond me. The only time you\'re gonna get that is if its a betdown at race time (like a hot horse or 1st starter).
Let me set you straight, this business of no faves winning is overblown nonsense. You think you\'re the only capper looking to beat the fave? And the fave doesn\'t even have half the pool on it unless its odds on.
Very few folks understand the betting dynamics of exotic pools, and think they are entitled to enormous payoffs when in fact they are not.
If the guy that offered 10k was good for it, you blew the easiest score of your life.