Interested in discussion/thoughts about Stellar Wind, whose TG figs in her 5yo year have surprised me. Looks like she reached her peak as 4yo. All 0\'s this year and the Thoro Pattern stats say it\'s a 71% chance she throws an X in the Distaff. Not only this but she\'s never won at 9 furlongs and 60+ day layoffs in the Distaff are just 2 for 33. Big time vulnerable favorite?????
For some this will be bet against the short priced Stellar Wind. Simple maybe overly simple.
Another perspective might be that Stellar Wind has to be better than the competition because she is unlikely to get the best trip regardless of post.
Then there the issue of timing. She hasn\'t raced since the end of July. What condition is she in?
Pattern readers are probable split. One group insisting that running a -4 a month before this race last year didn\'t work and another group figuring trainer John and owners have been pointing at this race for a year. Whoops that\'s the same group.
I do not conclude she is slower this year than last. I\'d bet her to win @ 5/2 or better. Depending on who is riding her.
The only point I can respectfully disagree with you on is the -4 being the cause of Stellar Wind performing poorly in the Distaff last year. Wouldn\'t most agree that the real reason was her atrocious start out of the gate? No way she could compete with Songbird and Beholder after that start.
Don\'t be quick to discount that the -4 (a monster number for a filly) and the bad start next out are not related. I\'ve heard TGAB many times (radio show and SPA seminars) point out this very situation.
The 60+ day layoff in the Distaff needs to be expanded upon to be helpful:
A) what were average win odds of runners who raced in Distaff off 60+ day rest?
B) what is John Sadler\'s record with that sort of layoff?
Agree, and would add, how many of those 60+ day layoffs were un/planned?
dsipes: I agree with you that Stellar Winds start and resulting trip compromised her last year.
milwmike: reminds us of a true expert\'s knowledge and a fine point. If memory serves the horse was somewhat nervous and fractious before the start.
My idea here was that Trainer Sadler didn\'t want to overtax SW before the big race this year. It could be coincidental and yet there are several high profile horses training up to the big day this year, led by BB who knows a thing or two.
Hopefully Sadler will explain the long layoff before race day. As Richiebee & TempletonPeck point out it seems the story behind the layoff is essential for a read on Stellar Wind.
Not specific to this horse but in general, there is a lot to be taken from workout info. Like, the dates of the works. Important when looking at layoffs, and really important in figuring out whether vet scratches are \"vet\" scratches.
Jerry could you go into a bit more explanation regarding the \"vet scratch are really vet scratch?\"
Ty
John
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/california-veterinarians-list-steroid-reporting-numbers/
This is the Paulick report article about California horses that \'train\' on steroids re Masochistic from 2016.
Seems that horse give steroids to \'recover\" from \"injuries\"are put on vets list for 60 days ....After that, they are free to race.
Is there a list available of horses that were put on vets list due to being administered anabolic steroids?
Are any on that list \'training up\' to the BC?
Am I making any sense?
Bob
If a trainer wants to scratch and they won\'t let him, he gets his vet to say there\'s a problem. That gets the horse on the vet\'s list, can\'t enter for a week (or so, don\'t remember), as opposed to a regular scratch which is penalty free. If a horse is \"vet scratched\" Monday and works Tuesday, it\'s BS, not a real vet scratch, which is by the state vet, and reflects an actual problem (or occurrence, like at the gate). They are listed the same but are not.
A tactic to get anebolic steroid treatment for sixty days. Next you\'ll suggest there is some residual benefit a month or even two later. If one started early enough probably wouldn\'t even show up in pre race testing.
Or am I getting carried away?
I believe this is a place to start:
http://chrb.ca.gov/veterinary.html
I believe she had a race or two this year where she didn\'t win by much which suggests she had to be all out. Of she had 0\'s and was winning by 3-5 lengths, maybe I could understand. But if she\'s all out and getting 0\'s, shouldn\'t that be a concern she can\'t get back to those lower figs from last year?
Another element here is that she is a mare as opposed to a horse.
When I look at her sheet......i see a pattern that can be read one of two ways......(a) she is still the same horse she was before and the nature of her campaign is such that she has not been cranked up yet to get to peak performance and she is sitting on a peak performance.....(b) the other is that she came back as a different horse....and what you see this year is what the new horse is and what she did the prior years are not relevant to this year\'s pattern.
In general, looking at a sheet like this....if the horse in question is a horse or gelding, I would give a little bit more weight to (a) and less to (b).....if she is a mare....all of a sudden the (b) scenario needs to be giving more consideration.
I have not done any scientific research here and what I am saying could be just plain wrong. However, I have a sense from three decades of sheet reading that female horses and male horses SOMETIMES have different tendencies and that this difference needs to be factored into the analysis.
In a similar vein, I find Lady Aurelia\'s sheet extremely unusual for a 3yo filly and really do not know how to read it. If she were a colt, that sheet is an easy read....as a filly.....I just don\'t know.
Appreciate your insight. What about Lady Aurelia strikes you as odd?
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2017-video-form-guide/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzZRMbdLrMY
In my experience, it is mighty rare for 3yo fillies (that already have an established base as a 2yo) to run a series of figures that are absolutely fast without having a bounce or a reaction thrown in. I find 3yo fillies of this type are more prone than other types of horses to throwing in a poor effort every other or every several races (this doesnt necessary apply where the filly is slow; the numbers need to be of a certainly quality in the context to justify the expectation I am talking about).
Now, judging by her sheet, it would appear that Wesley Ward is quite aware of this phenomenon and is trying to counteract it by extraordinary spacing. Her figs this year are exceptionally fast for a 3yo filly and she just keeps firing them. They are a fairly large step up from her two year old reaction point. Every other race or every couple of races, I would definitely be expecting a reaction race for a 3yo filly firing off numbers like this. The reason I am confused and cautious here is that Ward is an extremely sharp horseman, and from what I can see....he seems to be aware of this issue and is trying to counteract it.
Also, if you would say that applying this same logic to Stellar Wind\'s 3 yo year would have failed, my reply would be that Stellar Wind as a 3yo was different from Lady Aurelia as a three year old for several reasons (1) Lady Aurelia had a 2yo reaction point and Stellar Wind did not, (2) Lady Aurelia\'s 3yo improvement and figures in the months we are comparing were faster numbers in absolute terms AND also represented a bigger jump up in the context, (3) the argument can be made that Stellar Wind never had a first reaction point until she was a 4yo.....her line from her 2yo year and through her 3yo year can be said to be all development progression (Stellar Wind having never had a bounce would be harder to forecast one whereas Lady Aurelia has in fact clearly bounced already in her career -- the argument would run that Stellar Wind was a slower developing horse than Lady Aurelia was).
Thanks!
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/224302/unprecedented-drug-testing-ahead-of-breeders-cup
That\'s the good news. For the bad news, do a search for EPO testing.
All stakes replays here at Equibase Racing Yearbook:
http://www.equibase.com/yearbook/
Tough read on Stellar wind but I like Elate. She wasn\'t fully extended in her last and I think she gets back to her top, and could maybe even move forward a bit.
Agree on Elate,Paradise Woods is definitely drawing my attention.
Paired her last out, third race of the layoff,loan speed on the lead.
10-1??
Summer breaks for 3yo fillies have worked out well in this race. But then again I found out yesterday that apparently the \"Archives\" are irrelevant.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Joe - I didn\'t exactly say the archives are useless, only that establishing a cutoff number based on previous runnings didn\'t make sense. Im open to hearing the argument on how I\'m wrong.
Not going to use the board to argue. You made your point, I made mine.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Not going to use the board to argue.
I thought that was the whole point!
I began a thread on Stellar Wind on here before Breeders Cup suggesting her TG figs of \"all 0\'s\" this year suggested she had peaked last year. Looks as if that pattern theory was correct albeit she had a bad post on the inside. Nevertheless, SW ran an awful last place finish. Can I assume TG will use her pattern in the future as a sign of their suggestion in the seminar: \"if it looks like a horse is tailing off, they probably are.\"
Interesting also that the THORO-PATTERN stats for Stellar Wind\'s pattern showed that pattern was likely to result in an X fig (more than 4 point) was probably accurate as well despite everyone telling me to ignore THORO-PATTERN because it\'s for beginners and those Thoro-Pattern stats are results of all different kinds/quality of horses with that same pattern. My post-mortum BC analysis is going to see if Thoro-Pattern was accurate on some BC runners.
dsipes -
Actually, the juxtaposition of your Stellar Wind observations with the Bar of Gold discussion in another thread demonstrates the idiosyncrasies of Thoro-Pattern. Bar of Gold ran a negative 4.25 on October 22, 2016. Stellar Wind ran a negative 4.0 three weeks earlier. Yet, for Thoro-Pattern purposes, the -4.0 was Stellar Wind\'s \"effective top,\" but the -4.25 was not Bar of Gold\'s top, because she had run more races (most of which were not even dirt races) in the interim. If she had run one less grass race at this summer, Bar of Gold\'s \"effective top\" would have been -4.25 and her Thoro-Pattern stats (for X-X-X) would have looked just like Stellar Wind\'s. I\'m not saying that Thoro-Pattern is wrong, just that it is a blunt tool.
P.S. I didn\'t bet either of them.
dsipes Wrote:
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> I began a thread on Stellar Wind on here before
> Breeders Cup suggesting her TG figs of \"all 0\'s\"
> this year suggested she had peaked last year.
> Looks as if that pattern theory was correct albeit
> she had a bad post on the inside. Nevertheless,
> SW ran an awful last place finish. Can I assume
> TG will use her pattern in the future as a sign of
> their suggestion in the seminar: \"if it looks like
> a horse is tailing off, they probably are.\"
I stand by the same comment I made to you earlier. You need to consider in certain situations (this being one of them) the sex of the horse you are analyzing. Fillies and Mares are much more prone to \"be a different\" horse after time off. My read of Stellar Wind was she was a different horse. The same sheet with a colt or horse could have easily rendered a different interpretation.
Again, as I did in my earlier response to you, I hold out Lady Aurelia. Her sheet looked very vulnerable to me. 3yo fillies just do not string together so many top efforts without a bounce (either on a number power basis or pattern basis). She had already bounced before and the mathematics for her were not good. If that same sheet were a colt, I would have read it totally differently. Of course, tossing her did me no good as I did not have Stormy Liberal. Nothing I hate more than correctly tossing an odds on favorite and then not being able to cash because the wrong long shot wins.
I would also say it is not a universal thing that you need to read all filly and mare sheets suspiciously......I am just talking about specific circumstances (the two here are good examples -- (a) a filly or mare coming back after time off as a \"different horse\" and (b) 3yo fillies\' abilities to string together a number of very strong/top efforts on absolute or pattern terms without a reaction somewhere in there).
Your analysis is really helpful and fascinating. The type of content I need to learn.
Did you really need the thoro-pattern to tell you that Stellar Wind was not running at the same level as last year?