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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on September 15, 2017, 12:53:20 PM

Title: ROTW
Post by: TGJB on September 15, 2017, 12:53:20 PM
Woodbine card is pretty damn interesting, but ROTW will be the Sands Point.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Bet Twice on September 15, 2017, 04:00:59 PM
It doesn\'t look like your comments made it into the file.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: TGAB on September 15, 2017, 05:21:48 PM
It\'s there. Try again.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: FrankD. on September 15, 2017, 06:35:43 PM
Take out Chinese, Italian ice & Yankee baseball for desert and a couple angles on the ROW that caught my attention.

9 furlongs may be a few steps too many for Defiant Honor but you\'re going to get every bit of the ML plus a point or 2 on the probable 5th choice in the wagering.

Speighstown\'s improve 4 points from 2-3, Recepta was an awfully fast full sister going long on the green.

This one has reacted to both of her efforts with a subtle move in the correct direction in her last. Possibly sitting on a 6 or further south at a very fair price.

The 2nd angle is Nick Juarez/Ron Anderson connection. This is a pretty big spot for a jock that came to NY last week. Look at the Laurel card with 7 100k plus stakes, how many live horses would he have been on? Juarez is aggressive and this fillie will be forwardly placed.She may get brave?

A win bet is in order with a couple exacta boxes with Uni & Inflexibility in this
Chad, Chad world of grass stakes......

Good luck,

Frank D.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Fairmount1 on September 15, 2017, 08:13:45 PM
In honor of your Ali like return to the board, I\'ll sit and watch this NY Turf stakes race that involves Chad.  

Ali beat Leon Spinks 40 years ago today in a rematch.  It was the last fight he won, winning the world title for the third time.  I\'m gonna try and make some real money as I smell an upset brewing in Ali\'s Louisville tomorrow evening.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: shanahan on September 16, 2017, 04:57:49 AM
Fairmount, sitting it out due to Chad\'s entries?  Or for the Cub/Cardinal game?  I\'m watching both - curious how the 2 YO at CD look since we may face some of these at KEE next month.

Regarding the ROTW.  My first inclination is to box 4/9/10.  What caught my eye handicapping WO for the big stakes race is that Manny Franco is off World Approval?  I get Leperoux staying in KY for Casse, but JV goes to the hockey HOF for one race?  Franco has a mount in all 10 races at BEL, and I think he could win
4, and be ITM in 7 of them (I did not use Tg figs for BEL today, only CD/WO).

Anyone have insight on Franco skipping the G1?  Not his choice?  $50K payday to winning jock...
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: johnnym on September 16, 2017, 06:22:28 AM
Still digging out down here but always have time for ROTW.
Coming in at 116 lbs 6-1 ML out of the Brown camp ill play Inflexibility.
As TJ mentioned may get caught wide but does get a couple of pounds.
Scat Daddy improves 4 pts from 2-3 yrs old and this Jock Trainer combo win at 27% at the Big Sandy ITM at 60%.

Good Luck
Good to hear from ya Frank
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: johnnym on September 16, 2017, 07:25:12 AM
Are you sure that the 1 is for MTO?
TY
John
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Fairmount1 on September 16, 2017, 07:25:56 AM
Shanahan,

My post was mostly tongue in cheek trying to compare FrankD\'s return to Mike McD in Rounders who returned from a long poker hiatus and his buddy decides not to play in honor of his Ali-like return.  I also was attempting to make a somewhat veiled choice of Upset Brewing in R11 at CD while distracting the reader by continuing the Rounders, Ali, and boxing themes and possibly making some sports bettors think I was worried about the college fb game between the the \'Ville and Clemson tonight.  I\'ll be tuned in to that one after my gambling day is done hoping for an exciting finish.  

I\'m not nearly as clever as richiebee with the pen.  The problem for me as a writer and handicapper is contained in the following quote:  With age comes wisdom but sometimes age comes alone.

The last few years the Cubs win the games against the Cardinals that matter most and that will continue. Go CUBS Go!  Also glad to hear our Florida clan survived Hurricane Irma.  Best of luck today and hope all is well!  I\'ll also be following CD and WO closest today and wanted to make sure you use Upset Brewing in your plays at CD today.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: dglass2232 on September 16, 2017, 07:40:28 AM
My understanding is that it was the connections call to go with Johnny V on WORLD APPROVAL today. They feel he knows the track better at Woodbine.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: SoCalMan2 on September 16, 2017, 08:03:18 AM
Like this ROTW a lot, but feeling a little snake bit by the Roca Rojo situation.

Agreed La Coronel looks very strong and must be used.

If Uni is in fact the favorite, then I think she is a great bet against. If she is op and 1w1w without traffic problems for a third time in a row, I will let her beat me. At some point, that type of trip has to catch up with her.  While Irad is amazing and if anybody could pull the trip off it is him, she is being overbet to do it.  If Uni were the price that Inflexibility is, then I might protect with her just because of Irad\'s wizardry, but she needs to be 6-1 or longer to make any sense on that count.

Inflexibility has to my eye a superb line and spacing. Of course, the trip is a question, but maybe castellano can find some old magic. The price is right here if the ML holds. She also, like La Coronel, has the chance to pop a number so good that some squander can be afforded.

Other than La Coronel and Inflexibility, the only protection I think required is the Euro. She probably bled last and is getting lasix and other help for the first time.  The cut back from 10 panels to 8 panels helps a lot for a new top.

I am going to feel good with primary of 4-10 over 4-8-10 and secondary 4-8-10 over 4-10. Only hope I am not cursing Chad a la Roca Rojo again.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: BitPlayer on September 16, 2017, 09:13:48 AM
It\'s not mentioned in the ROTW, but Toner has said that Defiant Honor displaced in the race 2 back and had corrective surgery before her last.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: TGJB on September 16, 2017, 09:15:52 AM
Don\'t know what to make of that. It would be huge if it had come after her last.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Hoopla on September 16, 2017, 12:09:25 PM
re rotw  watched lake placid ? how can uni\"s # be higer than la coronel? 1w 1w on uni???
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: TempletonPeck on September 16, 2017, 01:31:32 PM
I just watched the replay (again) and I don\'t know what aspect of 1w1w for Uni (or 3w3w for La Coronel, for that matter) could reasonably be debated.

What do you see?

I get that Uni fanned 19 wide into the lane, but she travelled both turns on the wood.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: Hoopla on September 16, 2017, 01:55:06 PM
thought she looked two three wide coming out of turn [top of stretch] ? not sure who\"s going to win? but Fault under is interesting. pair up ? could move forward and why is Pratt come in to ride this horse?
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: SoCalMan2 on September 18, 2017, 10:21:13 AM
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Like this ROTW a lot, but feeling a little snake
> bit by the Roca Rojo situation.
>
> Agreed La Coronel looks very strong and must be
> used.
>
> If Uni is in fact the favorite, then I think she
> is a great bet against. If she is op and 1w1w
> without traffic problems for a third time in a
> row, I will let her beat me. At some point, that
> type of trip has to catch up with her.  While Irad
> is amazing and if anybody could pull the trip off
> it is him, she is being overbet to do it.  If Uni
> were the price that Inflexibility is, then I might
> protect with her just because of Irad\'s wizardry,
> but she needs to be 6-1 or longer to make any
> sense on that count.
>
> Inflexibility has to my eye a superb line and
> spacing. Of course, the trip is a question, but
> maybe castellano can find some old magic. The
> price is right here if the ML holds. She also,
> like La Coronel, has the chance to pop a number so
> good that some squander can be afforded.
>
> Other than La Coronel and Inflexibility, the only
> protection I think required is the Euro. She
> probably bled last and is getting lasix and other
> help for the first time.  The cut back from 10
> panels to 8 panels helps a lot for a new top.
>
> I am going to feel good with primary of 4-10 over
> 4-8-10 and secondary 4-8-10 over 4-10. Only hope I
> am not cursing Chad a la Roca Rojo again.

I stand abjectly chastised by this result.  I could not have been more wrong about this race.  The only silver lining is that, If i have to be wrong, i want to be wrong because a 6-5 shot won.  But man, before the race, that horse sure did not look like it belonged to be 6-5.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: TempletonPeck on September 18, 2017, 03:39:55 PM
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I stand abjectly chastised by this result.  I
> could not have been more wrong about this race.
> The only silver lining is that, If i have to be
> wrong, i want to be wrong because a 6-5 shot won.
> But man, before the race, that horse sure did not
> look like it belonged to be 6-5.

Before the race I saw it substantially the way you did (and bet accordingly).

After the race I feel substantially the way Frank D. did after Belmont Day re Baffert/not betting on horse races anymore, or at least not very often (and did on that day for the same reason).

I am very interested to see what figure Uni earned.
Title: Re: ROTW
Post by: TGJB on September 18, 2017, 10:15:41 PM
Not that big.