Hi fellow TGers , I am in a major slump,cant pick a winner any more,some of my problems besides bad luck( bad break at the start , getting boxed ,Dqs , bad rides )
no sure what to do, another problem is when I look at the form everything looks the same, cant separate them. My friend says I am taking in too much info:
( I am a good capper),I play NYRA everyday.Just curious as to how some of you approach a race,(look for speed , try to eliminate a fav ,play pic 345s)
Thanks
Philywheel
Pick fewer spots. Don\'t try and bet your way out. If a race looks even it probably is. Take the positive from your selction even if the results were negative. This will keep your confidence up in a bad streak. Enjoy the atmosphere of where you are. Helps have some fun
Step away for awhile. Playing my way out never worked for me. Handicapping during a slump begins to feel like a chore, and bets get placed with a mix of dread and indecision. Not a good way to play. I know it\'s time for a break when I\'m consistently losing and when no matter how many races I look at, I never come up with a strong opinion. No sense forcing plays at that point. Take a week off, a month, whatever works.
It\'s called variance, Phily, and it is the bane of every positive expectation gambler. You\'re going to run into these streaks. I think the advice from Silver and Papa is spot on. Step away. Study the first week at the Spa without betting. Then dive back in.
Create a project for yourself that allows you to watch the races but not bet on them for a specific amount of time.
Example is opening week at Saratoga. As the races conclude next Friday be able to tell us whats winning, outrunning its odds or losing as favorites in turf sprints and 9 furlong dirt races. Or, what Chad Brown horses are over bet?
You can make the project whatever you want it to be.....
You get to analyze data that will help you later while you clear your head.
Less is more.
Try focusing on a few , and I mean a few, key aspects, and look for plays that meet those criteria clearly.
\"another problem is when I look at the form everything looks the same, cant separate them\"
I agree with your friend, sounds like a case of information overload to me.
This makes me think of the time I was in a golf slump, which at that point, had lasted about eighteen years. I went to the pro for advice on what I should do and he said, \"Buy a boat.\"
However, other advice posted on this thread is far more valuable for the question at hand.
philywheel Wrote:
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> Hi fellow TGers , I am in a major slump,cant pick
> a winner any more,some of my problems besides bad
> luck( bad break at the start , getting boxed ,Dqs
> , bad rides )
> no sure what to do, another problem is when I look
> at the form everything looks the same, cant
> separate them. My friend says I am taking in too
> much info:
> ( I am a good capper),I play NYRA everyday.Just
> curious as to how some of you approach a
> race,(look for speed , try to eliminate a fav
> ,play pic 345s)
>
> Thanks
> Philywheel
Sadly your dilemna is not uncommon. So some levity may be needed. You could alter your preparation regimen e.g. watch an episode of \"America\'s Funniest Videos\" or read some new jokes as step one.
Then consider who or what could be responsible for your condition. For example the last week of major meets is considered by some to have its own set of handicapping factors. Alternatively, do you have any distraction that could cause an anal cranial inversion?
Then handicap backwards. i.e. start with the last race and work toward the first race. Then start with the outside horse and work toward the rail. Choose those horse who can not win. Bet each of the remaining horses. (within reason)
If you can\'t get to a short list, pass the race.
Reward yourself in some way after success. Repeat. Then as in the trick test of years back ignore all of these suggestions.
I am a firm believer some of the guys here are to smart for their own good and over analyze every race.
A break never hurts either.
I never play make believe picks either as those are the ones I usually hit.
Remember K.I.S.S
Good Luck this shall pass
thanks , I allways thought i need a break, Stay away for awhile, and the KISS method
appreciate the feed back
I am a horizontal player ,maybe just some win and place wagers
Good luck all
Philywheel
What happened to just Bet the Ortiz brothers and you\'ll be fine?
Mc990 Wrote:
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> What happened to just Bet the Ortiz brothers and
> you\'ll be fine?
Everyone that did that has already retired to a life of leisure
very funny,
They have been my only winners on my pic5s and 4s
Hey MC , besides Castellano is their another jockey at NYRA that yoou would rahter put your money on????????????????
Never given it much thought... I don\'t bet jockeys
they are a part of the equation,
I was forced to play golf while in a multiple decade slump on a dark day of an Irish Racing trip. When I was looking to go straight to the 19th hole, I asked my caddie for some encouragement. To quote Nigel, \" I encourage you to give up the game\" I haven\'t played since and thank him every time the chance to lose balls and get sore hands for 4 hours comes up. A new meet soon starts Friday, you being a NYRA guy, trust your gut and go in with both hands. Gotta be better than golf no matter what.
Or you can bet against Lady Eli on Saturday.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Philywheel,
I assume you live in Philadelphia. I would suggest going to PARX this weekend.
After spending a day wagering there, things can only get better. Think of it as a purge.
I live 3 miles from Belmont and The Big A
My name is Phil,I have been known to wheel horse\'s Hence philywheel
Been to Parx a handful of times ,less than 2 hr drive
its Beautiful and the Casino and Waitress are even more beautiful
But I am still tired of losing Photo finishes
I am too good a capper to be in such a prolonged slump
lets hope Saratoga Changes things
Philywheel
Phil:
Last year at Saratoga...I lost 8 noses over a 17 day period...got DQ\'d out of a P-5 that cost me $20k payout for @ $120 (.50¢) wager...it sounds like your mindset was what mine was like...I backed off for 5-6 days...still watched them but didn\'t wager until the last week of the meet...got it all back and more the last weekend...IMO Saratoga is one of the few meets where you can do this...It\'s never a bad idea to take a step back a bit, regroup, and come back refreshed!
John
philywheel Wrote:
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> I am too good a capper to be in such a prolonged
> slump
At least the slump hasn\'t drained your confidence ;-)
To me, that\'s the hardest part about this game: by the time you have enough data to conclude that something is working, the game has changed. The trainer population changes (e.g., Diodoro and Gargan at NYRA), \"training techniques\" change, the tools that competing handicappers use change (e.g., Timeform US, clocker reports, Maggie Wolfendale), the mix of races changes (e.g., more turf sprints), etc.
When you are playing horizontally (I generally don\'t), where one or two hits or misses can make a dramatic difference in your ROI, it has to be even more difficult.
I know they\'re part of the narrative... The equation, not so much IMO. My guess (without any data to back it up) is that any perceived jockey advantage is already more than accounted for in the odds.
If I cash a ticket
major jockey changes ( a reyes for a rosario) ,when I see lone speed and Karamoche is on , that always is a positive.
For opening day,
in the 3rd I like the 5 Sir Ballantine, not gonna get into details on why ,would take to long
I appreciate all the responses ,some really hit home
Im sure he will lose by a ns
Good luck to every one at the SPA
You know where you are, right?
Not sure what you mean Jerry?
Do ANY of these posts about handicapping involve TG? Jockeys, trips, types of bets...
He doesn\'t. This post actually took longer than I thought.
Jeff
Since you brought up Slump Busting....
And since Grace has always been my favorite athlete since he came up in \'88....
Enjoy!
https://www.stucknut.com/takebox/?id=173
Fairmount:
You stated out my day with a laugh! Mark Grace and \"PC\" will NEVER collide in the same sentence!!
John