Is it possible to know the author of the analysis prior to purchasing? Seems that JB is, in a word, excellent at this (Preakness, for example), and I just don\'t find the consistency or rationale in the comments on non-TC days to justify the $25 per...of course, I am making the assumption that you do it on the big days, Jerry.
I am not baasing this on yesterday\'s fiascos, but on the last 5 months personal experience and rereading my notes on the analysis...just a suggestion.
Having had some experience in this regard it can only be said that jerry is the #1 very best handicapper and alot of guy\'s are a close second ... not to say the pic\'s from people other than jerry are not quality but rather a handicappers success or failure is cyclical and often dependent on a number of various mitigating factors (some random) . No one is giving anything away at these tracks , ginding out a profit on a daily basis while positioning oneself for the break out day is always the ever pertinent issue at hand . The TG analysis is quality and becouse I may have a different view of a race than someone else doesn\'t necesarily mean that I don\'t respect another person\'s opinion ...
Post Edited (06-21-04 03:12)
I appreciate where you are coming from, but the significance in the difference in results is (at least where I believe I know JB wrote it) startling. My issue is simply that the reasoning behind the analysis is often in conflict with itself.
things such as \"trainer stong with this angle\" on a horse in one race is not significant in similar situation? Just one example...
Ok fair is fair and you are the customer so you can have the last say on this , I would like to say however that interpeting run based trainer & win % + roi stats is none easier the reading a pattern . Tonight for instance @ colonial -6- ( for a race of the day contest) I\'ve gone against a seemingly strong favorite who has an excellent fillie pattern and good run based + win % stats etc - becouse my projetion for pace senario\'s I\'m inclined to like a horse (Feijoada) who\'ll rate off the pace while saving ground so she can put in a big late run at a price . It\'s a play that should it come in I\'ll look pretty good , however to some the favorite was an obvious choice .
Post Edited (06-21-04 19:55)
I\'ve probably done a lot of the days you thought were done by others, and some were not so hot (a couple of years worth of Keenland for example). I think my comments are better, and we\'re going to be focusing more on the analysis soon in conjunction with a joint venture we\'re getting into, and will improve that aspect. But the picks have been fine-- our guys pick a lot of prices, which means the short term results will be very volatile, but I would match their results up in the long run with anyone offering a similar service.
Having said that, I will offer the usual disclaimer-- you are better off learning how to use the data yourself, if for no other reason than having access to up to date scratch, odds, and track condition info.
Having done the analysis years ago for TG, I can make a few brief points.
1. You do the analysis the day before the card. It has to be written and uploaded to the site so people can have access to it as quickly as possible following the draw. If you know how hard it is to go to the track, make your observations and decide how to bet -- and win...imagine how hard this is to do the day before without the benefit of knowing the weather, scratches, etc.
2. To Jerry\'s credit, he has CONSTANTLY emphasized that using the data yourself is infinitely preferable to buying the analysis, for the reasons cited above. In fact, all of TG\'s promotional material emphasizes that it has limited usefulness. And the analysis is never \"pushed\" as much as the data itself.
3. I\'m sure Jerry would own up to some awful streaks with the analysis. The point being, it is extremely difficult for ANYONE to produce results given the built-in difficulties of producing daily analysis.
How about this one? One day I did the analysis for Aqueduct. I put up three exactas, each over $100. I went to the track the next day to bet the card and I didn\'t make a dime. Given the scratches, odds, etc., I changed my mind about a few things and zig-zagged myself out of every winner. As Ripley said, believe it or not.
HP
gentlemen:
Many thanks for the responses and insights. I, like many others on the site, DO use my own picks, supplemented by TG analysis. I will be the first to admit giving in to the analysis (your more experienced than me, no doubt about that)over my own handicapping more often than not - which could have spurred this initial request. I hear you loud and clear, and totally agree. Marcus, forgive me, I did not know your handle and tat you did some of the analysis sheets & commentary. If I offended ANY of the staff, please accept my sincere apologies as that was not my intention. Often, I go to the track without benefit of a lot of handicapping time ( I am considering breeding and ownership foremost other than wagering) and simply take the analysis with me in addition to the form. That\'s all...
Part of the deal when you charge people money for data and opinions is that they get the right to ask questions and make comments, within reason. Thick skins here, and no sacred cows.
Which brings us to CC\'s hilarious post on the Rag site. I\'M the one who\'s obsessed?