I\'m really disappointed that there is silence when it comes to the performances by all of Bafferts runners Saturday. As a horseplayer, I have never felt so cheated. Something\'s just doesn\'t seem right. West Coast and AA ran huge tops off very weak lines. All of a sudden, Mor Spirit becomes the next coming of Secretariat. Abel Tasman goes from Callahan to Baffert and becomes unbeatable. These sheets are worthless if this is allowed to happen.
I guess you\'d need some proof before going all crazy on him.
I\'ll byte.
First of all to accuse, assert, or insinuate that BB cheats by way of using PED\'s is, imo, very bad form. Being unable to explain his success is perplexing on the other hand.
To wonder what training technique or conditioning technology he utilizes is an open question brought up from time to time here but not much ink in terms of explanation.
What we\'ve all noticed, I\'m sure is BB w/o\'s are noticeably faster. Further BB doesn\'t do much on turf?
I\'ve also noted that Chad Brown, seems to train his turf runners with the idea of teaching relaxation while building endurance via regular slow works.
On the day in question, did all of his winners to so from the front end?
Edit - most all of BB\'s winners came from off the pace. However the last one from just off the pace. That c/b a function of MS.
Sounds like a bad case of sour grapes to me.
Last year the fox came to Saratoga on Travers Day and went 2-0 one being Arrogate.
Personally history has a way of repeating.
What a gambler may have accomplished if you singled all the Baffert\'s in the horizontal\'s
Breeders Cup could be the Baffert show.
Putting sour grapes, name calling and sore loser issues aside, it is not unfair for a gambler to ask if there is sometimes a tilted playing field. It isn\'t just that Baffert won ( and won and won and won)it is the numbers his horses ran. The \" improvement\" was caused by what- he feeds his horses better? he breezes them faster or longer or harder? Some of these numbers are out of the world and bear no reasonable relationship to anything any of us could predict. Is it also a coincidence several of his horses have inexplicably dropped dead while training? I do not purport to have the answer but logic dictates ( to me) that there is something more than superior training. I have always been in the camp that is suspicious of super- trainers. In the modern history of horse racing, prior to Oscar, no trainer, not Nerud, not Laz, not Fitzsimmons and not Ben Jones, won at 25% long,short, over 90 layoff, less than 11 days etc. With the exception of Chad Brown you would be hard pressed to find one super trainer whose grass numbers approach their dirt numbers- is it because all the \" skill\" in the world can\'t make horse not suited for the grass run faster? To Johnny M and Pete- I have no proof but like Tavasco I am perplexed. We should not accuse a good trainer for excellence ; nor
should we attack a frustrated gambler as being a sore loser because a horse jumps up 15-20 lengths out of the blue. I am one of the rat bastard lawyers referred to in another string and deal with a lot of allegations of fraud in my litigation practice. Fraud is really, really hard to prove.Sometimes as an attorney you don\'t have all the answers. Same on this subject- every Bronx bone in my body tells me something is wrong with some of the trainers, some of the time. It is an inexplicable part of this game.
Don\'t disagree with anything you\'re saying, but I guess the lack of proof is the reason why there\'s no public outrage.
In the meantime;
Great cards coming up at Penn National, Charles Town and Evangeline Downs tonight - NO super-trainers in sight!!
There\'s tons of outrage, and there\'s a difference between evidence and proof. We\'ve been hearing a lot about smoke and fire these days-- smoke is evidence of fire. Seeing the actual fire is proof of fire. But if you see smoke pouring out of an apartment window it\'s a pretty good idea to call the fire department.
I have a hard time believing that in the sport of kings all the big time owners/trainers do not have access to all the latest and greatest supplements training techniques etc.
Yes he is a ridiculously good trainer, perhaps the G.O.A.T on the dirt.
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have a hard time believing that in the sport of
> kings all the big time owners/trainers do not have
> access to all the latest and greatest supplements
> training techniques etc.
>
> Yes he is a ridiculously good trainer, perhaps the
> G.O.A.T on the dirt.
-- not insinuating anything here, but Jerry McKeon said the same thing about a one Oscar Barrera (coming from \'ole Harvey Pack though, so it may have been tongue in cheek):
Re: Ahem... (https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,100545,100563#msg-100563)
You say California has the toughest testing rules. Baffert gets crazy big jump ups when he ships out of California. What\'s the big mystery?
jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You say California has the toughest testing rules.
> Baffert gets crazy big jump ups when he ships out
> of California. What\'s the big mystery?
That is not fair. You have no evidence at all except speculation.
Perhaps nasal strips, draw reins and expensive stock melded with world class horsemanship, apparently, creates some sort of smoke?
Solid rationalization for a negative bottom line as any. bbb
Whoa. Those are the same strips, reins, stock and WC horsemanship that produced 4\'s in Cali before coming east and running -4. ðŸ¤"
Unfair speculation? You explain it then. Why does the east coast bring out the best in BB?
I believe Jerry stated he received a call from Baffert telling him about Arrogate before he blew up.Arrogate ran a -4 in Cali last year he paired. Then he paired again in Dubai. None of these tracks are close to the East.
I believe attorney\'s and I sure am not one, would call everything you are referring to as circumstantial evidence.
If he is bending the rules and has never been brought up on any charges then in my world he is not breaking any rules. If he ever gets caught well then that changes everything. Until that day occurs he is what he is the GOAT!
What gets me though is some of the sharpest minds in the game frequent this board.
I just wonder if sometimes we just get too cute in trying to beat him instead of accepting the fact that he is Baffert.
I learned my lesson.
Lets not forget last years TG Derby pick is just starting to get going as well.
Good Luck
John
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What gets me though is some of the sharpest minds
> in the game frequent this board.
> I just wonder if sometimes we just get too cute in
> trying to beat him instead of accepting the fact
> that he is Baffert.
John -- I don\'t think any of us are specifically out to try and beat him, or any other \"supertrainer\", unless their horses look like underlays. If there\'s one thing TGJB is constantly reminding us of, it\'s to keep an eye on a trainer\'s first couple of entries when he\'s shipping in a bunch of stock for a big stakes day..
Rocky:
I ask you to recall last week Belmont\'s analysis sheets.
Only one Baffert was even considered,that was Abel Tasmen in a 3horse box.
Just saying.
The people who don’t think there’s a strong pharmaceutical element to Baffert’s success last Saturday are very very stupid. But there’s lots of stupidity going around in this world: Dennis Rodman is on his way to North Korea to talk to Kim Jong-un. And I just watched the documentary WEINER on cable. Stupidity is everywhere. It can’t be stopped!
We’ve been through this argument many times before in the past 30 years: One winter in Florida twenty years ago, there was a Canadian-based trainer named Frank Passero, who won 14 straight races at Gulfstream Park. He was hailed as a training genius! What a guy! What horsemanship! Wow! A book was written about him! Horses claimed by Passero had move-up tendencies much like what we see all the time today, and Passero’s move-ups at Gulfstream that winter particularly infuriated a lot of horseplayers. One of them was Andy Beyer, who cried foul in his Washington Post horse racing column. In response, a moron from the Daily Racing Form named Matt Hegarty scolded Beyer: How dare Andy accuse Passero! That’s not allowed! Where’s the proof? You can’t go to the bathroom without a bathroom pass! Fast forward in time to today: It turned out Passero did indeed have a move-up magic potion: A “new†“Canadian†pharmaceutical named Clenbuterol. The Racing Form might have a big B to indicate Bute or a big L to indicate Lasix to it’s readers. But it doesn’t have a big P for Peppermints or a big X, Y or Z to indicate all the other stuff racehorses get.
The secret to Bob Baffert\'s success has everything to do with his longtime vet Vin Baker. Some schmo (actually the New York Times racing writer) wrote a book a few years back titled something like THE UNTOLD STORY OF AMERICAN PHARAOH. Oooh! Gee. The inside story? Really? I saw this in a Barnes & Noble bookstore once and quickly checked the index for Baker\'s name. Was it there? No! What a joke. Books like this are meant for the broad base of unsophisticated racing fans. That is, those who believe that racehorses run merely on hay, oats and water. After a while, racing fans with half a brain and an understanding of speed figures realize that the animals they bet on are sustained and enhanced, at the very least, by legal drugs. A few years ago, the curious case of sudden deaths of 7 horses from the Baffert barn revealed a powerful thyroid drug was involved. INCREDIBLE! What else ya got? Only a moron would conclude these animals don\'t get some really really really strong stuff that really really effects them.
In the end, he who has the best (most aggressive) vet.... wins. Wins a lot. Wins preposterously. All the time. Again and again and again. And it all happens in the spaces between the numbers Jerry puts down on his sheets, behind closed doors.
Well the op of the thread just got all he wanted in the way of outrage.
Nice post.
JTC,
This is the best post that has appeared on this board in at least 2 years.
What happened on Belmont day made me sick. Bee and I had a long chat this morning about The Who, what and where\'s.... It\'s all irrelevant, the point is on one of the sports 4 biggest days of the year the conversation had to take place at all.
In fear of rattling rattling a nameless persons cage on here about red boarding losers or amounts wagered..... I\'ll leave it at yours truly used to bet a substantial sum of money over 300 days a year on a game I love and nothing else can take it\'s place. That amount this year will reach the 20 % investment level of where I was for 25 plus years and will encompass 50-60 days tops.
I look forward to seeing my many friends from here on Spa weekends,
I\'ll not be up much if at all during the week this year.
JTC, I would like to also applaud your political non correctness as to \"stupidity & morons\" YES they are everywhere and have more than their market share HERE.
Fairmount put up a detailed sequential play a few weeks ago, much like many Jimbo, myself or others have posted over the years. I sent him a text as to 3 being the over/under on responses. It was 1. Look at the many contributors that no longer post on here? Anyone ever wonder why? Why bother?
#WTF happened to handicapping?
I broke my boycott out of respect and total agreement with JTC\'s post. I\'ll not be engaging in any further dialogue.
Good luck,
FD
My! People come and go so quickly here.
- Dorothy
Circumstantial evidence also tells you to stay out of the hood after dark.
\"Accepting the fact that he is Baffert\". That sounds pretty close to God.
Didn\'t Passero also get caught using something called Fiery Jack? Not much of a horseman.
I\'m just glad to know I\'m not the only one who feels this way. Is it a total coincidence Baffert had a triple crown winner, has the two fastest horses in training, the top 3 yo filly (who couldn\'t win with previous trainer) and had probably the fastest triple crown prospect this year in Mastery before injury. Total coincidence. Oh I forgot!!! Did anyone see what happened to Dortmund when he left Bafferts barn for Shermans? HA!
Lol;it depends on what your looking for.
John
John:
With the passion of your post I did some DD.
Yes Baffert had 7 horses kick the bucket and a autopsy was given to them all.
Findings,they all had a thyroid medication on board not illegal by the way and two had trace amounts of rat poison. Fyi the rat poison is not used in Cali and they determined the amount was not significant enough to raise any flags.
Bottom line he was not brought up on any charges.
Now I ask you,if you are convinced of Bafferts magic potion,was he on all your tix Belmont day?
If not then who is stupid?
Respectfully
John
Frank:
If you happen to read this it is a shame you are or have left the board.
I\'m still a rookie here trying to learn as much as possible while raising a family,so I don\'t know when the good old days ended and what you and Jimbo are know referring to as this new board.
I noticed in Fairmounts post you referred to you didn\'t respond to it either.
Was it to prove a point?
If you decide to boycott what is the mission statement of your boycott?
To prove a point to leave the neighborhood because you don\'t care for a new neighbor that moved in?
I appreciate all the help you have given me and will miss your knowledge and your post.
I will say I don\'t understand your reasoning.
Best of luck
John
Shane! Come back!
John. It\'s not whether you use him at the windows. It\'s why you use him at the windows. Same with Oscar Barrera in the 80\'s. Same with Lukas in his day. Same with all of the \"super trainers\" that dominate the 2nd and 3rd tier tracks. They\'re wild cards. How much do you want to risk playing with a loaded deck? That\'s what\'s killing the game.
Jerry:
For the same reason reason I toss Pletcher in the Derby and Preakness.
Team TG does very extensive trainer stats and I am quite sure we all take this into consideration when handicapping.
I have been around gambling my whole life I\'m approaching 50 know. I had family members run numbers,I new the wise guys growing up as a kid. I use to go to Belmont at 6,7,8 years old watch the ponies with the family see the old folks get excited to cash a ticket and see the smiles on there face to talk trash. In a old school Italian family those memory\'s really stick As a young boy.
Growing up I use to bet football mostly pro, Pro Football as a sport has lost me can\'t stand it any more. Moved over to college ball still love it but to wager $110 to get back $100 to much to ask to be profitable.
Went over to the ponies educated myself trying to learn the ropes it has been profitable for me. I will give credit were it is do I learned a lot from this board. Went from keying one horse up and down in exactas to using A/B/C horse how to form tickets etc.
I am not about to give this up no friggen way.
If I loose all of my degenerate self then I become a grouchy old man and talk about the good old days.
To a newbie I love this board read it 5 times a day, however as I mentioned some of the sharpest minds in this game visit here. I feel sometimes some of them get to cute and try not to see the trees from the forest.
Never loose the passion for something you love,yes we all fall of the beam and not to get political there is BS everywhere in this world.
When I download the TG and the family knows that Daddy is betting the ponies today and I am on my porch drinking a scotch smoking a cigar and trying to cash tickets and my wife ask me how are you doing today something about that just seems alright.
I wish everyone here the best
Happy Fathers Day.
That guy died young, I think motorcycle accident. Without looking it up, name the other great movie he was in.
I didn\'t know. I asked my mom, who is an encyclopedia on these matters. She asked me if you know that This Gun For Hire is better than Citizen Kane.
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Until that day
> occurs he is what he is the GOAT!
>
> Good Luck
> John
Charlie Whittingham must be turning over in his grave.
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> John:
> With the passion of your post I did some DD.
> Yes Baffert had 7 horses kick the bucket and a
> autopsy was given to them all.
> Findings,they all had a thyroid medication on
> board not illegal by the way and two had trace
> amounts of rat poison. Fyi the rat poison is not
> used in Cali and they determined the amount was
> not significant enough to raise any flags.
> Bottom line he was not brought up on any charges.
> Now I ask you,if you are convinced of Bafferts
> magic potion,was he on all your tix Belmont day?
> If not then who is stupid?
> Respectfully
> John
You completely miss the point.
Almost everything is better than Citizen Kane. Not Alan Ladd, the kid.
I couldn\'t even name the kid, let alone the movie. My mom says it has to be Hud. And if you have a 3rd movie question for her, she\'ll think it\'s Mother\'s Day.
Will just echo everyone who called this the post of the year. It sure is. Well said John, bloody well said.
Last Saturday by the time American Anthem had rolled into the stretch of the Met I was ready to throw up.
And nary a word from those in charge or those in print or on tv or radio about the improbability of this, save for homilies to Baffert\'s greatness.
Appalling.
Mom is always right. Paul Newman\'s kid brother.
Guy who directed that one was a racetracker, also directed Casey\'s Shadow.
APny:
Dortmund was ruined my Chrome. Chrome gutted that horse in the San Diego handicap and he was never the same.
Arrogate repaid the favor in the the BCC, Chrome was all lathered up on Pegasus day thru in a clunker.
Yes, they all have access to the latest, greatest supplements and training techniques. But just a few of them have access to \"other things\".
\"You completely miss the point.\"
I\'m not so sure he did, because I think it\'s two different kind of points to be made here.
The point Johnny is on about, is that we all have seen it many enough times now to be able to anticipate it. How many times should one really try to beat Lance Armstrong out of the yellow jersey before it gets stupid to even try? I guess we have learned now, later, that he could\'ve won those Tour De Frances with half an hour every year if he wanted to. 1/5 on him winning would\'ve been a gift if we knew for sure then what we know for sure now.
The other point, of course, is how could one stop it?
I don\'t disagree with anyone saying that it hurts the product of US Racing to have these guys around because it makes the market even more of a \"sucker\" market than it already is. The \"dodgy\" aspects of US Racing is one of the main reasons why I prefer to take most of my action elsewhere. And I sure as hell try to avoid risking too much on the really big days, when there really are big bucks to be made. (implied; I like the insiders chances better than mine)
No, it shouldn\'t be like that, but is it a way to stop it?
We don\'t even really know if what he does actually is illegal, it can\'t be fair, but we don\'t know if it\'s illegal and we don\'t know how illegal. There are LOADS of examples from endurance sports of people \"gaming the system\" finding ways to use legal medicaments in illegal ways making it almost impossible to detect if one knows what one is doing, e.g overdosing on Salbutamol (asthma medicine) to get an almost \"anabolic\" effect etc, - I\'ve read some reports suggesting that there are an insane numbers of olympic medal winners that have asthma, or maybe \"asthma\", we don\'t really know (of course the official spin is that this is what one gets for pushing the limits of the human body outside in our polluted, god-forsaken nature, or in chlorine-infected swimming pools). TBH, I\'ve thought many times that they got that idea from the horse racing industry in the first place. I\'m no expert but I believe medicaments like Salbutamol is pretty closely related to Clenbuterol. Maybe there are som rat-bastard white coats out there that could confirm..?
Those that pushes the limits the most, also wins the most, but the more risk one takes the surer should one be in ones calculations and whole operation. That\'s why I believe John T. Chance is spot on when pointing his fingers towards the vets; I believe this is a \"super-vet\"-problem even more so than a \"super-trainer\"-problem. Do I have a solution? No. Not a working one, at least not one that would ever be taken seriously, but if it took off it could at least serve as a loud and somewhat amusing message to the ones responsible.
It boils down to money, human cynicism, and greed - right? How much money could one such \"super-vet\" possibly earn? How much bitterness must they be tasting watching another man get all the praise and glory for their own hard work?
What if we, \"every outraged horse player\", for once in our lives pulled in the same direction and organized a crowdfunding to \"free the super-vets\"? If every outraged horse player puts in 10 or 20 or 30 dollars each to make them stop, it wouldn\'t take long before that \"offer\" would start to get tempting. And a stunt like that is sure to go viral, gathering a lot of really bad publicity at those in charge, and those responsible. Who knows, maybe something would happen?
Think about it. 25 dollars. That\'s not much. Just skip the seminar and bet every Baffert runner instead for a year !
(Judging by the price of Practical Joke in the Derby we need more than just the T-Generates to make this happen, though! We need the \"Patchers\")
I think it would\'ve worked in England. After all they managed to put \"Ding Dong The Witch Is Dead\" on the top of the charts following the death of the dear ol\' Iron Lady ( http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/margaret-thatcher-dead-ding-dong-1821740 )
FP,
JM said if you believed in the potion, but left off BB, who then is the idiot?
That isn\'t the point.
Its the uselessness of performance figures and handicapping in general by horses that get ridiculous numbers that shouldn\'t based on analyzing the data.
When handicapping is rendered useless because of what JTC pointed out, there is no game.
On top of that we have some people hailing the trainer of these horses the \"GOAT\".
Excuse me while I clean up the puke from my keyboard.
JTChance said all.
I appreciate your effort but it sounds like trying to pay drug dealers to stop dealing. Even if they were to take the deal, others will come along.
I prefer the Willy Sutton approach. Bust a trainer. Trace the source. Offer the vet to change hats or lose his license.
\"This mare\'s in foal to sure hit\".
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> APny:
> Dortmund was ruined my Chrome. Chrome gutted that
> horse in the San Diego handicap and he was never
> the same.
> Arrogate repaid the favor in the the BCC, Chrome
> was all lathered up on Pegasus day thru in a
> clunker.
Sherman had serious concerns about the post in the Pegasus, and told the jock to wrap up if/when anything went amiss during the running. Sure enough . . .
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That guy died young, I think motorcycle accident.
> Without looking it up, name the other great movie
> he was in.
Alan Ladd\'s last picture was the most unintentionally-funny one in which he ever appeared . . . The Carpetbaggers . . so over-the-top. The finishing fight scene featuring Ladd and George Peppard was a direct lift from Tracy/Gable in Boom Town. Great musical score, though.
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> John:
> With the passion of your post I did some DD.
> Yes Baffert had 7 horses kick the bucket and a
> autopsy was given to them all.
> Findings,they all had a thyroid medication on
> board not illegal by the way and two had trace
> amounts of rat poison. Fyi the rat poison is not
> used in Cali and they determined the amount was
> not significant enough to raise any flags.
> Bottom line he was not brought up on any charges.
> Now I ask you,if you are convinced of Bafferts
> magic potion,was he on all your tix Belmont day?
> If not then who is stupid?
> Respectfully
> John
No one, including Baffert, has offered up a plausible explanation for 7 horses dropping dead in a short time frame. A trainer may have 1 or 2 who drop dead of a heart attack over a 30 year career, if any. 7? In a short period of time? Each given a known medication that had no business being in their bodies? What was the purpose of that medication?
The only plausible explanation for those 7 horses dropping dead is that they were being given a substance that killed them. If Baffert would like to ever step up an offer another plausible explanation, then I\'ll be glad to consider it.
NormandyInvasion Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> johnnym Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > John:
> > With the passion of your post I did some DD.
> > Yes Baffert had 7 horses kick the bucket and a
> > autopsy was given to them all.
> > Findings,they all had a thyroid medication on
> > board not illegal by the way and two had trace
> > amounts of rat poison. Fyi the rat poison is
> not
> > used in Cali and they determined the amount was
> > not significant enough to raise any flags.
> > Bottom line he was not brought up on any
> charges.
> > Now I ask you,if you are convinced of Bafferts
> > magic potion,was he on all your tix Belmont
> day?
> > If not then who is stupid?
> > Respectfully
> > John
>
> No one, including Baffert, has offered up a
> plausible explanation for 7 horses dropping dead
> in a short time frame. A trainer may have 1 or 2
> who drop dead of a heart attack over a 30 year
> career, if any. 7? In a short period of time?
> Each given a known medication that had no business
> being in their bodies? What was the purpose of
> that medication?
>
> The only plausible explanation for those 7 horses
> dropping dead is that they were being given a
> substance that killed them. If Baffert would like
> to ever step up an offer another plausible
> explanation, then I\'ll be glad to consider it.
IIRC, the majority of the horses in question raced under the auspices of the same owner.
How does Baffert do on the grass in races of a mile or longer?
Anyone have any stats on this?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How does Baffert do on the grass in races of a
> mile or longer?
>
> Anyone have any stats on this?
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Among other things, I can\'t remember a Baffert trained turf horse. For starters I used the Equibase query feature. Last year\'s Del Mar summer stats are easy, to get beyond that some arithmetic labor will be necessary.
2016 Rank 41 10-0-1-2 $56K
2015 Rank 34 09-1-2-0 $78k
2014 Rank 47 05-0-1-1 $30k
The simple query does not differentiate between sprints & routes. The 2017 Santa Anita winter/spring meet reflects similar numbers.
His concentration on younger horses and short careers may distort.
Id argue that the real stupid one is the person who lectures about horses or uses every baffert or any horse for that matter, without regard for price and the value that the propositon offers. This isnt football where no matter which team you take, you lay 110 to win 100. Thats my problem with Baffert and the other magicians. Value. Did any Baffert horse that day offer any value? You used every Baffert and Pletch in the pk5 and got back 199 bucks......Whoopdee doo. At their best, these guys are only winning up to 30% so getting Baffert at 8/5 every race is not profitable. If every Baffert horse went off 5/1, then yeah, life would be pretty easy. Therein lies the problem. In racing, markets are fairly efficient and correct themselves very quickly. Combine that with 15-20 cents of every dollar being taken off the top, and you can see why guys who juice are a real problem for people who wager serious money in this game.....whether through the windows or the ownership/breeder side like some of us (or both). And I dont think it makes any of us \"stupid\".
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FP,
>
> Its the uselessness of performance figures and
> handicapping in general by horses that get
> ridiculous numbers that shouldn\'t based on
> analyzing the data.
>
> When handicapping is rendered useless because of
> what JTC pointed out, there is no game.
PDub:
I assure you I understand your point.
Point I am trying to make.
You handicap a card, say this years Oaks Derby card. As the day progresses you notice a track Bias are the performance figures useless?
Or do you adjust your handicapping to factor in the bias?
On Belmont day race two,it could be said Baffert horses were going to run good. Did anyone adjust to play this BIAS?
As a handicapper/ gambler is it my job to play judge and jury if Baffert is tinkering in pharmaceutical training or is it my job to cash tickets.
Baffert\'s horses on Belmont day, two of them ran new tops by 2 pts unheard of?
Two more ran I believe 5 pt new tops. A head scratcher? Perhaps.
However Bayern,Arrogate and I\'m sure there are other examples of horses that Baffert has trained that has accomplished this.
Frosted last years Met Mile freaked as well did he borrow Baffert\'s vet?
Bottom line it is what it is. How you deal with it that\'s up to you.
Respectfully
John
The early pick 5 paid $800 bucks.
If this is the week for handing out the \"best post in the last 2 years\" award, then I\'m nominating this one from johnnym.
As an added throw in, I personally could care less about who decides not to post here anymore. IMO, the latest complainer added little to no value anyway.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If this is the week for handing out the \"best post
> in the last 2 years\" award, then I\'m nominating
> this one from johnnym.
>
> As an added throw in, I personally could care less
> about who decides not to post here anymore. IMO,
> the latest complainer added little to no value
> anyway.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Don\'t know how long you\'ve been around here, but you\'re in the minority if you think the people who don\'t post here anymore offered little value.
Paul:
From your profile,1 day longer than you.
Wasn\'t referring to those folks. I agree there were some talented guys on here that are gone for one reason or another. Was referring to the rant that included classy language such as \"stupid\" etc.
Good Luck,
Joe B
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paul:
> From your profile,1 day longer than you.
>
> Wasn\'t referring to those folks. I agree there
> were some talented guys on here that are gone for
> one reason or another. Was referring to the rant
> that included classy language such as \"stupid\"
> etc.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
Ok thx. Wasn\'t sure who you were referring to
It was the same day. Great minds think alike.
Correct, I was quoting the 50 cent payout
Something just doesn\'t add up. Baffert texted Mike the night before to ask if he had 5 winners in him. Mike responded with I used to. The problem I see is that all of the horses at least made some sense on TG numbers, but how come his best chance IMO Mor Spirit was the highest price? its like nobody believes the \"magic\". But far from shocking results. West Coast had back races, AT was horse to beat arguably, AA may just love sprinting and his pattern while ugly could have at least suggested an untrustworthy yet forward move. IMO if you are upset with the big jump ups that\'s one thing, but upset the horses got on a plane for Baffert and showed up that\'s another thing. I bet zero of them and only used AT and Mor Spirit in Multi race sequences.
Indeed Frank and I had some back and forth last Saturday morning regarding the
results from Belmont Day. Frank knows and loves the game and was honestly upset by
what he and others saw as one of the biggest days in NY racing being played on an
unlevel playing field.
I think my apathetic reaction may have surprised Frank. I told him I was much more
upset by what I perceived as a big jump up by H. Graham Motion\'s winner of the
Manhattan in the race previous to the Belmont. (Based on previous tops, and the
fact that Ascend was running against a graded stakes quality field in his first
graded stakes appearance; it was not a huge forward move TG-wise).
Why am I not upset that the game, even on its biggest days, is not played on a
level playing field? Because the field has looked this way since I first started
playing the game casually early in the 1970s; when I worked on the backstretches
of various tracks in the 1980s; when I played the races at numerous tracks daily
in the 1990s. Getting married in 2001 took some wind out of the pari-mutuel sails,
but even though I am now a weekend warrior, I feel like I am close to the game as
ever due to access to Blood Horse, Paulick, TG and other sources of information.
Big days? Remember (as if I would let anyone forget) that legendary veterinarian
Alex Harthill stood sentry while a co-conspirator treated Northern Dancer with
Lasix prior to the 1964 Kentucky Derby, an injection which, given ND\'s dominance
as a stallion and sire of sires, changed the course of the racing industry for 30
or 40 years (unless of course you believe that ND would have won without Lasix, or
alternatively, that ND, a diminutive and not entirely sound specimen, would have
gone on to a brilliant stud career without the benefit of that Kentucky Derby
victory).
The 1970s? Oscar Barrera has been mentioned a few times in this thread, how he
went from a trainer getting otherworldly results to a trainer who went 0/140
something. The story which I have been told by numerous sources is that OSB was
running his horses on Lasix (before Lasix or any other race day med was permitted
at NYRA tracks); when NYRA detected this, they apparently thought the best course
of action was to give Oscar a stern warning and let him to continue to ply his
trade.
Now to Mr. Baffert. My own observation (and I hate to do this without providing
statistics, but I think most here would agree with the observation) is that
(a) Bob Baffert is somehow able to work his stock much faster than other trainers
and (b) Bob Baffert excels at shipping and winning. To NYRA. To New Mexico and
Texas. To Illinois. To Dubai. My OPINION is that \"(a)\" gives Baffert runners an
edge for as long as said runners can withstand the taxing training regimen. My
exact comment to Frank (quoting my text message to Frank) was \"Medication figures
into both the workout and the shipping equations\". This final comment would best
be characterized as a \"SUSPICION\", and I will leave it to someone else to
determine where \"suspicions\" fit with opinions, assertions, allegations and false
news.
What can you as a horseplayer do to level the playing field? I will
repeat myself much as I do each time the drugs in racing issue is discussed. Write
a letter to NYRA, or the folks in charge of racing in Illinois, or Florida, or
California. Even better, get together with numerous others who share your feelings
and send a letter which has hundreds of signatures. Tell the addressees that the
signature(s) at the bottom of letter represent [a large dollar number] in terms of
handle. Tell the addressees that this [large dollar number] will be diverted to a
different racing circuit, a circuit which is doing more to promote drug free
racing. HANA might be doing something like this as I type (it is called a
\"Buycott\", not a \"Boycott\").
I am not saying that posting expressions of outrage here or elsewhere will not
have some impact, but change will not come until racing starts to feel the pinch
of decreased handle directly related to the end user\'s dissatisfaction with
performance enhanced racing.
[One final comment: Somewhere in this thread Baffert was annointed as \"The
Greatest of All Time.\" P-Dub wryly suggested that Charlie Whittingham was spinning
in his grave. Let me give the East coast version of this: Woodford C. Stephens is
spinning in his grave, with five skeletal fingers sticking out of his coffin.]
If you can\'t hear the cussing coming from Bobby Frankel\'s grave about the last comment -- you need a hearing test.
Richie will take a different view on ASCEND. Some ammunition may include undefeated on Lasix, late pace figures a pole better than his field, last half in last, on very soft ground sub 46, something this horse has done before. Very solid bullets coming in, extremely favorable weight differential and this gelded homer always shows up for work. bbb
I have baffert at 2-35 the last year .15 ROI
1-18 sprints
1-17 routes
On the surface it is easy to understand why BB doesn\'t race on the turf much. i.e. he is not successful. It is not so easy to understand why his turf results are so contrary to his dirt results.
I\'ll guess BB\'s turf runners are cast offs from stock which just didn\'t make the grade in training for and participation in dirt racing.
What is the conjecture about Cigar turf vs dirt?
bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Richie will take a different view on ASCEND. Some
> ammunition may include undefeated on Lasix, late
> pace figures a pole better than his field, last
> half in last, on very soft ground sub 46,
> something this horse has done before. Very solid
> bullets coming in, extremely favorable weight
> differential and this gelded homer always shows up
> for work. bbb
All fair Triple B, but would it be facetious (gotta love a word which contains
all the vowels in alphabetical order) of me to accuse you of a \"Chart Read\"?
Chart reads are great. With modern technology you can get a hold of a DRF chart
or an Equibase chart almost immediately after the race. The chart of a race
makes it very easy to identify the winner.
To put it another way, give me the most unlikely winner on any given day of
racing, and after the race, I will be able to find something in the TGs or the
past performances that pointed towards a win, even if it means I have to go back
a few generations in the pedigree or look for an isolated TG# from three years
ago.
While I do not rely wholly on TG figures to handicap, it appears that in your
blurb you mentioned them not at all, which is fine. It might also mean that you
are not aware of the following: Time Test (7/5): OFF; Beach Patrol (6.8/1):
PAIR; World Approval (3.9/1): OFF; Divisidero (7.8/1): OFF; Potemkin (8/1):
PAIR; Applicator (69/1): PAIR; and Wake Forest (17): OFF. Third place finisher
Sadler\'s Joy established a 3 point new top, but since he did not win, and was
not trained by Baffert, it was hardly worthy of mention.
SO, not only did the \"gelded homer\" with the significant weight differential and
the pace figures which were a pole better than his competition need to run a new
top, many of the contenders in the race had to tank, which they did. And, kind
of like the \"Chart Read\", the post race review of the TGs brings everything into
focus.
I do not want to belabor this, but the original reason I even mentioned Ascend
is to bring up the point that while many posters were outraged about (for lack
of a better word) juicing, there are many things going on on the backside that
95% of the horseplayers are not aware of, and that might lead to improved
performances. Subtle equipment changes (bit changes, blinker type changes) which
are not (but could be) reported. A horse reacting positively to a new groom, to
a new feed regimen, to different bedding. Change in exercise rider, moving to a
new stall in the barn, moving from the track to a Fair Hill type environment,
etc, etc, etc. Most of us will never know how much we do not know.
My own personal opinion is that subjecting equines to numerous invasive
procedures such as intravenous and intramuscular injections, tapping and
injecting joints etc is harmful to the equine in the long run. If it were not
for that opinion, I might say lets go to the modified \"Amsterdam\" approach, ie
make everything legal, and may the best vet win, which might be where we are at
today, anyway.
And then there are horses that come home in :22 3/5 in their last and peak as 5 year olds while working every 6-7 days and while getting 4-10 lbs from the rest.
All kinds of numbers in play .....ever day.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Richiebee,
This is not a race that I particularly enjoy reliving, but your calculations here are mucked up something awful by today\'s weight and groundloss, among other things. Please try this: Forget the top/pair/off bit. It is not built for this. Instead, being very conservative, simply plug in a projected figure, today\'s weight, and today\'s odds for each horse:
Like this:
Ascend: 3.25 (114) 27-1
Beach Patrol...
World Approval...
Then go back and adjust the projected figures for today\'s weight and see where you end up.
Understood Rich. I just wanted to dig at BBB a bit.
Also trying to point out that not only must one identify live runners who are value priced, one must also try to identify those runners who are not going to fire.
I\'ve always been averse to betting low weighted runners in handicap races, which, in this nabe, is a bit contrarian.
I feel compelled to point out that the guy sitting next to you, who has some experience using TG, liked that horse. And that the guy managing the horse, who buys 5 figures worth of our data a year, picked the spot based on TG.
\"I just wanted to dig at BBB a bit.\"
I am all for that, Richiebee. But given that BBB has shown that he has a pro-class, anti-sheet agenda, I would not pass up an opportunity to dig at him Thorographically in a race that is so ripe for doing so by the book. No need to read any break on this putt.
Regarding the BBB point about the horse\'s late pace # being a pole faster. He failed to mention he was also a pole slower early.
While others pat themselves on the back, I would also pat J. Ortiz on the back. From the perspective of pace and racing dynamics. imo, the trip was a big factor in the win. Not much ground loss and up near the dawdling pace.
I think that Beach Patrol was taken out of the race by his trip.
@27/1 I love the straight put analogy. Learning to roll it straight would be the other half of that program.
Richie understand the adversity towards the low weighted types, yet Belmont in the spring/summer offers, unlike most tracks, cappers an opportunity to critique imposts. Thought both preps for Antonoe and Ascend went drawing board. Both were pointed here and came in as well as could be expected. To be honest I did not bet either. Played a pair of tix, 4\'s, singling a couple of winners, the exacta pair in the stake and Time Test, not the best of somethimg to five horses. Can report several of Ascend\'s \"connections\" have shiny new trucks.
Rich: No agenda. Class has dominated the sport for centuries, yet completely grasp the horse to beat is not necessarily the horse to bet; a mantra/mission this site.
Tav, Agree, yet at ten panels, green, early speed is often mitigated, severely so when on the hedge. Yet have issue with the further a horse runs the less weight matters as some performance makers suggest.
bbb
Which figure makers suggest that?
Wasn\'t going to say anything, as its redboarding, but unless you discount the races due to age (I wouldn\'t) Ascend\'s last two races at NYRA were BOTH difficult no shot trips, that understated his ability.
Those kind routinely win on turf when they finally get clean/perfect trips.
Was way too high at 25-1 , even off the raw dope.
BBB-- point me to any post you have made here, ever, that was reponded to in a way that indicated someone took you seriously. Anyone.
Class my ass.
Can someone on this board then tell me what the word is to describe/define situations where the \"slower\" Songbird continues to dust the \"faster\" Carina Mia?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Can you show me where it said that Carina Mia was \"faster\" than Songbird?
Jerry:
It\'s on their respective sheets.
Up until they began their 3 race \"rivalry\" in July of last year in Saratoga, Carina Mia had 3 numbers that were faster than Songbird.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Which is a whole different thing. And Arrogate is not one of the fast horses, based on the same thinking.
IMO Dortmund was toast after running his guts out at 1 1/4 in the KY Derby days after a bout with Colic and THEN coming back 2 weeks later while visually light in flesh and running in Preakness.
Triple Crown sequence ruins many colts before they have a chance to be horses.
Jb, not going to take the time, yet will stipulate that any such respect is certainly minimal. With that written, on re-reading my last contribution here, many read it and I confidently stand by its content. bbb
I don\'t mind your contributions on here BBB, was just curious as to which figure makers if any you were thinking about when writing \"Yet have issue with the further a horse runs the less weight matters as some performance makers suggest\". The standard view is certainly the opposite.
As to the whole \"class\"-debate I don\'t really get the controversy, but it could be that I\'m too young to really know what some oldtimers would mean with that word.
In my world there\'s certainly a degree of \"class\" involved when a horse fire every time (i.e run big numbers every time), I don\'t see why figures and \"class\" should be in opposition? For me there\'s also a degree of \"class differences\" involved when a horse that has the numbers to compete fails to repeat those numbers facing tougher competition, it seems to be the case often enough for it to be a \"thing\". I guess pace is a factor in that. Other dynamics? \"Boys against Men?\".
And I don\'t quite see why it would be wrong to say that a horse like Songbird, Zenyatta, Black Caviar or Tepin for that matter, \"has/had class\". You ask them to do something difficult and they just do it. That\'s class.
I\'ve made figures for 10 years and is very much a figure guy myself, but that doesn\'t stop me from appreciating that there are intangible elements of horse racing, too.
Roger that FP. Five pounds equals one point at All distances seems a dubious assertion to me.
Zenyatta a good example of performance figures versus class. In my mind, she ranks with the all time greats, yet on figs, many would disagree. bbb
When it comes to unsupported assertions you are in a class of your own.
BBB wrote:
\"Five pounds equals one point at All distances seems a dubious assertion to me.\"
You are quite confused, BBB. If you go to the TG Introduction page and read about how the length-value of a point varies according to the distance of the race, it will clear up your confusion--at least about this particular matter.
Nice pun.
Rich Curtis is right though BBB, you have to see that weight rule in relationship to how 1 point equals to two lengths at 10 furlongs and 1 length at 5 furlongs. What you find is that the relationship is completely linear \"point wise\", i.e 1 pound has the same effect on the figure no matter what the distance. From there you could certainly go on and make your point though, that the relationship really shouldn\'t be linear and that there exist some sort of \"cut-off-point\" in distance where the extra pounds has a bigger effect on the performance than what that linear relationship suggest. You would have to tie it up to a theory of some sort though, I guess breeding and to look at what these horses really are evolved to do could be relevant. I think what you would find though is that it would be difficult and even more \"dubious\" to try to get that curve correct, so you are probably better off to just keep it in mind while handicapping, anyway. Horses are individuals, after all.
And of course there are alternative views to it. There\'s also some common sense in the theory that high weight is most troublesome in the acceleration phase of the race, i.e in the start, and that this effect would be stronger the shorter the race is (less time to overturn that effect and more \"need for speed\" early). My guess is that all in all, the \"linear approach\" is probably the best way to go about it, from a figure making perspective.
I\'ve always thought that \"class\" was a proxy for good speed figures, from a time when there weren\'t good speed figures. A horse that places in G1s will be faster than one that places in allowance races, because the former is facing faster company (on average).
But good speed figures make that kind of analysis mostly irrelevant. I say \"mostly\" because a horse running back to a typical number in a stakes race validates those numbers (in my mind, at least) to a greater degree than running back to a number in an allowance.
How about the ability to handle faster internal race fractions while still achieving (or even improving on) their final number.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve always thought that \"class\" was a proxy for
> good speed figures, from a time when there weren\'t
> good speed figures. A horse that places in G1s
> will be faster than one that places in allowance
> races, because the former is facing faster company
> (on average).
>
> But good speed figures make that kind of analysis
> mostly irrelevant. I say \"mostly\" because a horse
> running back to a typical number in a stakes race
> validates those numbers (in my mind, at least) to
> a greater degree than running back to a number in
> an allowance.
I don\'t think class always equals figures. As pointed out, Songbird and Zenyatta are good examples. I believe AP may be another recent one with figures relatively mediocre probably until his last race. I believe that Timeform uses class in their figures which is why they were basically the lone entity assigning AP the top spot in the totem pole early on.
Class looks at who you beat or how good the onlooker thinks the horse is regardless of time. Without times in Europe to a large degree, this is how they ranked horses, the prestige of the race, who they beat, and how they looked doing it.
That\'s how I look at it.
TimeForm does not use class, AP\'s figures weren\'t mediocre before his last. See Archives this site.
Bob Baffert? He was Jesus, now he\'s from a diff planet I guess. Can\'t wait to see the home team defend him again. Same ole. I feel sick. This is disgusting. Thoro has his back tho....
What does that mean, exactly?
What are you trying to do? Put message boards out of business?
Before the race, \"class\" is used as a lazy substitute for the real reasons why the handicapper likes a certain horse.
After the race, no matter who the winner is, \"class\" is used to explain why the winner won.
It\'s a rigged verbal game, rigged entirely in favor of class. That is what makes it so telling that class handicapping has lost so much of its popularity over the years.