I am reminded by some ranting on the other board that it is time again for me to challenge Friedman to a handicapping contest. I would point out that if he thinks he has any chance at all he should take me up on it, since he knows what\'s been happening to their sales both in absolute and relative terms, and doesn\'t have that much to lose anymore, as others used to claim. Six months, weekends and holidays, stake races only (makes it a manageable number of races to handicap for those of us who are busy), for anything from bragging rights to $50k, or a smaller amount to the Libertarian Party for me, or the political party of his choice (that\'s me not taking a cheap shot). The DRF once offered to host the contest-- I can probably get them to do it again, which would be great publicity for both of us, especially Len, since he will kill me. I made a similar challenge to both Beyer and Friedman at the DRF Expo, and the silence was deafening-- you\'ll see it on the DVD.
Anyone who wants to see what I meant about cult thinking, check out the Rag board. Hell-hath-no-fury-from-California (Janis) is a special case, of course-- he\'s been out of control since I threw him off this board, and spanked him on his \"124 questions\", which can be found in last year\'s archives. For those keeping score at home, NOT ONE of those guys has had the guts to ask Friedman about the Derby error (uh, I mean controversy)-- there\'s nothing to lose by doing it, is there guys, since all that will happen is that I\'ll end up looking stupid. Right?
>or a smaller amount to the Libertarian Party for me<
We have something in common. :-)
So does anyone see anything interesting on the sheets for Churchill on Sat?? Hopefully the numbers will be more helpful than the numbers on the Belmont card....
And if you liked Seek Gold in the first last Saturday, don\'t respond.
Post Edited (06-11-04 20:55)
Okay Phil, I won\'t.
But, since you don\'t like raggie mike: CD 7, the Regret #1 Pay Day/M Dickinson/8-5* is only faster than the 50-1 shot #6, hope that helps, Phil. She\'ll likely win by a pole, but that\'s hoss racing, lol.
In the #6 Northern Dancer there\'s a 10-1 shot who scratched out of the Riva Ridge on Belmont day [maybe the curse continues Phil?, lol] who happens to be the fastest pony in the race by a hair. If he doesn\'t win in this soft spot, he may never win a Graded route stakes.
In the #8 Fleur de Lis Hcp did you know the 4 at 30-1 is as fast as the fav #1 at 5/2 and just about everyone else. Only problem Phil, she bounced big [6pts] in her last, but Dale does have a little bottle of magic dust that might get the job done.....
I\'ll be betting against SI in the Foster Phil. Big 3.5pt tops into a monster minus # just begs for a bounce at a very short price.
Gotta go. I\'m puzzled why you didn\'t have #1 Prep School [30-1] in R12 on Bel-day. A solid 2nd to the 4/5 shot $80 ex, $430 on a very gettable tri. Next time buddy!
Thanks bdhsheets. I did have a $4 exacta and collected $167 to partially salvage my Belmont day. But left before the race and just left a token exacta bet.
Have the 12 circled in red in the 6th. I think the morning line in the 7th will change. I have the 4 in the 8th with 1-6-8. I believe Peace may rule in the Foster and agree that SI gets beat today.
In the 10th that Fires horse could boost the tris and supers. Like Vicki a bit and the 2 in the finale.
I\'ll add my two cents.
In the 5th, I like the 2 - lifetime best first time turf which is competitive with everybody except the 9\'s last monster race. Tossing last when had ton of trouble.
In the 6th, serious concerns with the outside post. Will take a shot with 4 - paired 3\'s before Lexington fiasco. Two months off, steady works and should get a good trip.
Concur with 8th and 9th - think that Peace could wire them quite easily.
Best of luck.
6 5 3 1 in the 5th SuperBox TriBox or Exacta Box all winners
Can\'t see Southern Image bouncing...believe he\'ll win by a pole and is best older horse in country, check him out in the paddock, this horse carries his weight real well and believe we have not seen the best of him yet...very suprised to see how many people like Peace Rules in this race...may actually catch a decent price (AGAIN!!!) on Southern Image for the last time...public has let this horse go off overlay prices in each of his races. Look at his line...even money in SA Hndcp was a gift against that field of rats...2nd choice vs. Dynever???, did a double take when I saw the odds in that one.
Perfect Drift had little chance in a slow paced prep for today\'s race. He did well to finish second. Not sure if he\'s ready for a peak effort today (which he will need to win), but his last race was NOT a true indication of where he was form wise on that day. He\'s closer to ready than it looks.
Dynever\'s last race also has little to do with reality. Last out he was running against several horses that were at least at good as he is (if not better). The pace and trip gave him little or no chance to make up much ground or achieve his peak figure. He\'s against weaker today, but faces a similar negative pace scenario. He\'ll probably be an underlay, but if he loses it won\'t have anything to do with his lackluster looking race last out. He may not be good enough overcome the probable pace and trip disadvantages against these.
I see nothing else in either of features that isn\'t common knowledge. If they bet something crazy, I will surprised.
Post Edited (06-12-04 15:39)
Liberaterians??? Think they would support a plan to allow social security to hold all the stock issues of our major colleges and universites. Recooping our past tax investments vice taxing the hell out of the working poor. Philantrophy equals tax avoidance (tax credits) which puts more taxes on every thing else wonder when they will tax interest on home loans and our gambling losses as well as the winners net profit?
Suave could have salvaged the day in the fourth, but I didn\'t play J. Town on my tickets. Overall short price keys and the inability to find the \"second\" horse made it a tough day at Churchill. Some winners could only have been chosen by color or favorite numbers....
Had 2 painful near-misses; I rarely play pick-4\'s, but I played the Nat\'l. Had an $8.00 ticket shot down when Dynever lost, had Adoration, a nosed \'Image and Sabiango. Made matters worse at CD w/another 8-buck ticket including Suave (knew he would run huge!) Sister Star, Adoration, and singled Southern Image, as I thought he would move up in the slop! Ouch!! Beaten out of at least 3k by a 60-1 shot...