The D\'Amato horse at 9/1 looks like a pretty square price. A little slow but not by much and draws a good post.
The winner is Oscar Performance. This is a horse of whom I wanted to post a TG question before the race but I would have been asking for info that I hadn\'t paid for.
Here\'s the question, and maybe there isn\'t an obvious answer for the TG crowd but what the hell: On the sheets, does this horse look like a typical rounding-into-form 3rd-off-the-layoff play, or does he look like a horse who doesn\'t look likely today to return to his juvenile glory?
I realize odds are important but I\'m putting odds to the side for this question.
Dead rail last time.
Doh! Forgot all about the dead turf rail Derby Day. (Although that brings up the question of muscle soreness from racing on deep turf.)
But let\'s say there was no dead turf rail that day: What would the horse\'s sheets line look like?
You can see the sheet in ROTW section - Derby day info is available.
To my eye, I would not have predicted a return to his 2 yo figs. And with the slow pace and saving ground, my guess is he still didn\'t get to last year.
Hellersorr,
Do you have a sheet in front of you when you ask this question?
If you do, it is a horrendous question. The horse finished last year, pairing 5\'s. He has come back this year and ran an 8, a bad figure, and then backed up to a 14 last time.
If you discount the \"dead rail\", the horse is deceased and can\'t be bet in any way in any slot.
Now, he did have excuses in both races, not just the dead rail, so today was the decision day \"deceased or valid excuses\". Turns out it was the latter.
But 8 and then 14, with tops of 5, is not \"rounding into form\", it is \"falling off a cliff\".
Relax, Jimbo.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hellersorr,
>
> Do you have a sheet in front of you when you ask
> this question?
>
He said \"on the sheets\".
So its 1-1 in regards to stupid questions.
Bal-aBali also won a stakes today off the negative CD rail race
I use \"sheets\" referring to TG graphs, as opposed to The Sheets (Ragozin). If there\'s a more appropriate term, let me know - I\'ll be happy to use it.
No, Jimbo, I do NOT have the sheet in front of me. But even if I DID have the sheet in front of me, I would have asked the exact same question. I was intrigued by Oscar Performance and was curious about the orthodox TG read (if there was one).
I ask a LOT of questions. If a person got paid for asking questions, I\'d be a gazillionaire. Tragically, this is not the case.
Here\'s another question: Why do you so consistently . . . ah, never mind. Life\'s too short.
Gud Poynt
I was wondering who in the world would bet this horse? 7/2? Someone knew something I didn\'t. Again.
hellersorr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I use \"sheets\" referring to TG graphs, as opposed
> to The Sheets (Ragozin). If there\'s a more
> appropriate term, let me know - I\'ll be happy to
> use it.
Sheets is fine, I wasn\'t referring to your use of the word sheets.
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Gud Poynt
>
> I was wondering who in the world would bet this
> horse? 7/2? Someone knew something I didn\'t.
> Again.
He was a logical contender. Not sure anyone \"knew\" anything, he had excuses for the 2 poor performances this year. An off slow and a dead rail. Excuse those 2 and he looked as good as any.
P-Dub
Smiling, Whaa... Excuses?? Two in a row. OK as many views as there are pairs of eyes.
I excused his Kee race when I bet him @ CD. No more excuses from me. That\'s like saying the Cavaliers don\'t practice enough @ at sea level.
In any event he looks to have run a new top imo. Now what?
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub
>
> Smiling, Whaa... Excuses?? Two in a row. OK as
> many views as there are pairs of eyes.
>
> I excused his Kee race when I bet him @ CD. No
> more excuses from me. That\'s like saying the
> Cavaliers don\'t practice enough @ at sea level.
>
> In any event he looks to have run a new top imo.
> Now what?
Its not close to the same thing don\'t be ridiculous. The Cleveland analogy.
Off slow and a dead rail are 2 legitimate excuses. The dead rail was discussed here for 3 weeks.
I\'m shocked no one has mentioned the LASIX OFF angle, after only 1 start with it.
Very unusual to go on/off like that , and its possible that last dismal effort was a bad reaction to it, as well as the dead rail.
OP was exceptional as a 2yo.
I\'m missing all the fat pitches lately, and I think this was one of them.
I think Ticonderoga wins the race if he doesn\'t get shut off and has to alter when the 9 bore in around the 1/16th pole.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Joe,
Perhaps.
OP came home in 33.70 for final 3/8ths.
22.72 and then 10.98 final 1/8th.
Pretty difficult to close into those fractions.
I don\'t do the race designations but here are some comparisons on fractions
Other turf races on Saturday card:
3 on Inner and 3 on outer turf courses
2nd) 1 3/8 maiden 24.49 49.84 114.97 (inner)
4th) 1 mile allowance: 23.90 48.16 113.44 (outer)
6th) 1 1/16 allowance 25.25 49.60 114.11 (inner)
7th) 7f maiden clm 23.3 46.37 110.28 (outer)
9th) 1/1/8 stake 24.43 49.92 114.74 (inner)
10th 1 1/16 maiden 23.41 47.46 111.97 (outer)
Only watched late replays for most of the Saturday Card.
Would agree Ticonderoga was \'going best\' at the end.
Race dynamics favored OP once he cleared early and controlled fractions.
On CD 5/6 dead rail, race dynamics (dead rail) was against OP.
The favorite Good Samaritan also ran 5/6 but off the dead rail.
Bob
Bob:
Tough to argue against those numbers.
My pain was needing him in 2 hole to complete what I thought to be an easy exacta play. Nothing easy in this game as we all continue to find out.
Ticonderoga was about 2 lengths off of OP and motoring when forced to check and alter. Could have caught OP in my opinion---it would have been tight.
On to bigger and better this week.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Apparently no one was impressed with the lasix angle ,even after I brought it up.
Trainer mentioned it today. Said he was extra dull in the paddock that day so he reversed the lasix .
No no ….. you might have something there ….. interesting comment from the trainer because Maggie commented that she thought he was calmer, less wound up than in prior starts ….. Saturday was the second time I\'d seen him in the flesh, the first time being for the Pilgrim last October ….. he was washed out that day but in fairness it was a muggy day ….. Saturday he was relatively calm and not sweaty ….. definitely rated more kindly Saturday once they got to the backstretch …. presumably he\'ll point to the Belmont Derby …… be interesting to see …… he doesn\'t seem to want to sit behind others ….. presumably Coolmore will send something over for that …… maybe the 5th out of the Prix du Jockey Club, him being by War Front …… Willie Mullins did his homework with the jockey bookings for the Gold Cup ….. fun job I\'m sure for JB doing the figuring for Clondaw Warrior and his 3 mile hurdling form ….. did run well at Arlington last year though …. Wicklow Brave the high weight but if he can sit forward and not be too wide, will take a real SOB to pass him
Red Cardinal a legit Melbourne Cup horse. If he doesnt have too much to do when they straighten out... That said, winning the Irish St Leger is no joke. There\'s your exacta.
Apparently https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/mullins-pair-head-four-strong-european-challenge/288752 the top 3 in the Belmont Gold Cup qualify for the Melbourne Cup, so some of the others are aiming for that as well. That has surely helped to improve the field, but I hadn\'t seen it reported anywhere else.
Here is an excellent scouting report on the Euros: https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2017/6/9/international-scouting-report-belmont-gold-cup