In tomorrow\'s get out race for the holiday weekend, I will be taking a big \"Swing\" on Swing and Sway, #1, at Belmont Park in Race 10.
1. Ricardo Santana\'s only mount of the day at Belmont Park;
2. Rail draw for a horse that can make her own position (see 2/19 maiden score replay from post 2 in a field of 11 and see the TG race shape);
3. She was never threatened by Friend of Liberty in her last, an Asmussen charge that won the race after the Oaks from an outside run down the stretch defeating Baffert\'s Cleopatra among others;
4. Lost at 5.5 furlongs to Her Love for Pappy 2 back, a speedball that would whip Bluegrass Flag to the front if she were in this race and S&S was catching her late and has an extra 1.5 furlongs in this race;
5. This was one of six winners Moquett had after 3/2 at OP when the milk shake testing began (2 of those 6 wins were by Whitmore).
6. Two point move forward last time and despite the bo notations on the sheet I\'ll look for her to repeat her number from the rail or slightly improve, carrying 4 less lbs than the 3 in tomorrow\'s race and I\'m fully expecting Bluegrass to regress if I haven\'t made it clear.
If Irad doesn\'t take Noble Freud, #7, back a smidge like last time, she can tussle with Bluegrass Flag early setting it up for Swing and Sway and North End, #9, who has a legit TG number before being sent to the Gazelle out of the state bred win. Even if NF doesn\'t \"send,\" Swing and Sway will not let Bluegrass get far away from her, stalking Bluegrass until the stretch drive.
I\'ll use 1 strongest along with 7 and 9 in the p3 and p4. I\'ll also play an exacta 1 with 79 and to a lesser degree 79 with 1 but still a solid swing on this backup ticket. A win ticket will be in order depending on the odds in the win pool on Swing and Sway. (7 and 9 have matching works in their last two over the Saratoga training track including their last faster than Ticonderoga, a grass stakes horse from the Chad barn).
Curious others thoughts on the first 3 legs of the late p4.
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The other horse I\'m very interested in tomorrow is at CD and connected to Noble Freud at Belmont. Her workmate before her first start was Colonelsdarktemper. Both broke their maidens first out in February after several matching works before their debuts. This one had no shot in the Pat Day Mile and returns in a more appropriate spot, R10 #7 and will return to a one turn race for the first time since his debut. If this one wins it may give you more confidence in Noble Freud who was certainly thought to be a much faster horse (and a filly) prior to their Feb debuts. NF also will have more time under Chad\'s \"program.\"
Best of luck!
Interesting take, the rail makes it tough on Ricardo. If he try\'s to run with Bluegrass Flag on the inside he\'ll probably get cooked or if he sits pocketed up he\'ll have to hope to get pace pressure.
R7: I thought CB & TAP horses were worth taking a shot against with #8 Sal the Turtle, made a wide middle move into fast pace on a day you wanted to be on the rail last time. 3rd place finisher from that race came back to run 2nd in the Bay Shore on a questionable rail. #10 Pat on the Back was a little interesting on the cutback and should get a ton of pace.
R8: Absolute war, #3 Eye Love Lulu chased a fast pace on a dead inside last time and was best on the wire over #8 Weekend Hideaway who was with the track but didn\'t have a dandy trip either breaking the race open with a 4w mid-move. #5 Diversify MOTO and my other A, many long-shot plodders with chance that I threw in as backups.
R9: Another spread race in a showdown between NY\'s favorite turf milers. #3 Get Jets has a strong finish if they go at it up front (not sure what Jose is going to do with King Kreesa since she needs the lead, not as fast as Macagone). 1/2/3/8/10
R10: One longshot i\'ll mention is #4 Tiznow\'s Smile coming off a better than looked effort last time, shuffled back to nearly last down the back stretch and had to come 6w turning for home behind a crawling pace. Charlie means business when his horses work fast in the A.M. (see Final Chapter in the Affirmed Success on opening day). He paired his 2yo top off the layoff and i\'m hoping for an explosion 2nd off the bench. Using all of 1/3/4 and a little 7.