Read today\'s Derby Diary entry. I understand that the Form publishes the Beyer figures but I know Crist is well aware of other figures (I had a meeting with him as a TG employee). I was surprised that there was no mention of TG, Rags or anything else. If you read the premise of the Diary entry in the first paragraph, this seems to be a very deliberate omission. You would think he might be interested in things that can account for the odds given the Beyers going in (this seems to be the whole point). Maybe he\'s afraid of making the Beyers look bad. Maybe he\'s using the Beyers because they are the most common reference point.
Regardless of how you feel about the guy, he knows how to handicap. What gives? Is there any point in him leaving out stuff you know he knows about? HP
HP,
I was at that Tourney in CT several years ago
and asked him if he ever heard of Henry Kuck & his ratings, he looked at me like I was
speaking another language. From many of the articles I\'ve read, he seems to be Beyer-centric. Think about it, if he even hints that there are other figures that are superior to Beyer\'s, he\'s openly admiting that he is not providing the best information
he could for the 5.00 price of the form.
Given Beyer\'s methodology, and the more often than not bizarre figures he awards to horses,
he\'s got to realize something is amiss. Did you ever notice how often the Beyer figures
actually change from race to race; and sometimes in a very big way ? He\'s got to protect himself and talking specifically about figures other than Beyer\'s is not in his best interest, regardless of whether
he is actually reporting the facts as they appear.
An incidentally, I do not beleive that Harlans Holiday is significantly slower than
War Emblem, Buddah, or MD; that is obsurd.
If the Derby odds were based on the Beyer figures, I\'d gladly take 8-1 on HH.
Nunzio
I would bet there is no way Beyer ratings are the main course of Crist\'s handicapping. I can only add that Harlan\'s Holiday IS slower than the horses you mentioned based on the times of their respective most recent races. Beyer would have to make some variant adjustments to compensate, and judging by his figures, he seems to be going more by the clock.
By the way, has anyone looked at the final fractions for the preps? I\'ll resort to this if I\'m having trouble separating contenders and that\'s the case here. One horse is a standout (and it\'s not Buddha, Nunzio), and he fits on TG as well. I\'m sure the BRIS guys will get it. Check the PP\'s, which are free on drf.com. HP
Based on your 2 criteria You are talking about Perfect Drift? Based on his last race final fractions and his LP BRIS number and definately his TG pattern fits. You could be talking about that under-achieving Saarland who will also be overbet. How\'d I do?
HP,
Based on the pace figures I use, no horse with the exeption of Booklet who will not be in saturday, has better pace figures than MD & Buddah.
Nunzio
Phil, you the man. I was talking about PDrift. On late pace, I don\'t see who else can even be that close. You see anything else on this?
Nunzio, at BRIS, they calculate pace for different parts of the race: early, mid and late. I think you are referring only to early pace. This may go to the \'race shape\' thing you cited. HP
Where is the article you refer to?
Yes, no info of this kind for EOD, Castle or Joburg. I\'m leaning towards tossing Joburg and using the other two along w PD and Blue Burner. These 4 will be in my Oaks/Derby double with Imperial Gesture as my single in the Oaks. Haven\'t and likely won\'t finalize any other derby wagers til close to post. But I\'m already in OK shape with win bets in pool 3 on PD,EOD and Castle. I really messed up not wagering in Pool 2 on EOD & PD. So if I don\'t like their odds come post I can pass on the win waqers and use my bankroll for some exotics.
Jerry,
http://www.drf.com/crown2002/derby/crist.html
Phil,
On EoDubai, the Timeforms look a little low (see JBurg\'s). Pulpit don\'t move me neither. The price is right, and I like that he came over early. Otherwise I don\'t know. He\'s certainly in the ballpark and I\'d hate to have him beat me at a big price. Gandolfo is a pain. We\'ll have to disagree on Saarland. I hear you on BBurner and PDrift, and I envy your futures bet on the latter. Sunday Break bugs me if he\'s in, looks like some value to me.
Good luck. This is probably my last day of posting before Sat. HP
Darn it HP, here I thought you were objective, but misguided. I didn\'t know you were a TG employee?
I guess I can be objective enough for the both of us since I have never worked for the competition.
How\'s the Derby selection coming? I\'m zeroing in on my play - thinking of keying 2 longshots in the tri - what do you think?
Hello NAOF,
If it means anything regarding objectivity, I learned from a Rag guy and I have no axe to grind, except for the specific issues I\'ve raised. I worked at TG because a guy in a bar I worked at was there, not because of any big partisanship.
The draw today is the last piece. Perfect Drift and Saarland look good to me. PDrift looks like a nice win bet.
After reading the article in the Times today, I\'ll toss the Coolmores. EoDoob, Private Emblem, BBurner, Sunday Break and RequFParole are still on the radar for the tris, and my ticket will probably get cheaper cause I don\'t think SBreak will get in.
Good luck. HP
What article? In the NY Times? The Thoroughbred Times? Let me know.
Thanks in advance HP.
Today\'s NY Times. HP