\"This horse is not that good...he\'s not even gonna be 4th on my superfectas. He was the beneficiary of perfect trips and big inside track bias on Churchill Downs.\"
So he\'s caught 4 track biases in a row? Lucky horse.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
This was from the DRF podcast yesterday. I don\'t agree with completely tossing AD, but I do find his point on inside bias believable. After all LAL and BoM are no world beaters and probably won\'t replicate this kinda lucky performance ever again. I think there was a mention of how KD cannot be compared to earlier races in the day.
Hate to break it to him, but this horse is probably going to have another perfect trip on Saturday. He makes his own trip. Hats off to Andy for having the stones to leave a horse like that out of your superfecta.
Anything to make yourself \"relevant\" again. That\'s the hot take of the season for sure.
In his webinar this week, Beyer proclaimed Andy Serling to be the best public handicapper around.
Think about that while thinking about him leaving AD off his top 4. Closing bars in Georgetown every night eventually catches up to you.
Good Luck,
Joe B
jbelfior Wrote:
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> In his webinar this week, Beyer proclaimed Andy
> Serling to be the best public handicapper around.
>
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
Serling has his multiple good points -- but that\'s utter gibberish. Further, baldly serving that verbiage without footnoting the history of the pair -- and the historic attachment -- is less than forthright.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In his webinar this week, Beyer proclaimed Andy
> Serling to be the best public handicapper around.
>
> Think about that while thinking about him leaving
> AD off his top 4. Closing bars in Georgetown every
> night eventually catches up to you.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
Other than Jerry, I don\'t pay much attention to what other handicappers say, but just watched Serling\'s Derby Preview and then his Preakness Preview. The Derby became a tougher race with the track condition so can\'t hold it entirely against him but if he even sniffed anything, it was glue. Not even close. Poor large picture as well.
Now that said, his Preakness analysis is almost entirely inline with mine and so I\'m shaken and this is why I don\'t like to watch these things. What makes it worse is that I felt similarly about American Pharoah two years ago. Really felt things had developed well for him to make him advantaged in his races. Same thing I perceive about Always Dreaming. Heck, its more than that I bet Always Dreaming last on those advantages!
Anyway, so this guy perceives similarly about Always Dreaming and still is looking to beat him in the Preakness.
Read in another thread that Battle of Midway and Lookin at Lee clunked up. I don\'t agree. Serling liked Battle last, (his only real insight), and believes Lee is a clunker deluxe. I do not. So...time to look at the track condition. My home is under water, course I live in a swamp, Built a castle here it burnt down and fell into the swamp. No idea whats going on at Pimlico, if its a swamp I\'m passing this race.
Rundown to follow
Ever hear Serling on the BYK show?
Guy yawns his way through his interviews.
Chronic , well known problem.
But I suspect the yawns from the audience are equally impressive.
For those of you too young to remember.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jxO0EKlYv0k
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JDzf_2NzbZU
T Severini Wrote:
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> My home is under water, course I live in a swamp, Built a
> castle here it burnt down and fell into the swamp.
> No idea whats going on at Pimlico, if its a swamp
> I\'m passing this race.
Remember what Jimi Hendrix said about castles. The ones made of sand, not the Spanish ones.
> Rundown to follow
Do you mean following the race?
Liking the undercard tomorrow, a lot more than the Derby undercard. Don\'t know
why. A few Thorographically fast runners with morning line odds between 8/1-
12/1. Whitmore is in career form, but his trainer did him no favors by dropping
him in a spot where he has to give 6 pounds to last year\'s champion sprinter.
A $.20 buy in Rainbow 6 and a $1,000,000 guarantee P5 ending with the Preakness,
and a nice Spring day to hang out in the backyard at Bel to take in the
proceedings.
>
> Remember what Jimi Hendrix said about castles.
> The ones made of sand, not the Spanish ones.
>
> > Rundown to follow
>
> Do you mean following the race?
lol
I\'m still working on it. Track looks to be fast and dry with cool weather. So no swamp.
Regarding the other post about Super Saver\'s Derby, this horse is not Super Saver but he has caught perfect tracks and competition. Still evaluating.
Castles (https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+monty+python+huge+tracks+of+land&view=detail&mid=9126DA89AEBDE4DC0FC59126DA89AEBDE4DC0FC5&FORM=VIRE)
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T Severini Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > My home is under water, course I live in a
> swamp, Built a
> > castle here it burnt down and fell into the
> swamp.
> > No idea whats going on at Pimlico, if its a
> swamp
> > I\'m passing this race.
>
> Remember what Jimi Hendrix said about castles.
> The ones made of sand, not the Spanish ones.
>
> > Rundown to follow
>
> Do you mean following the race?
>
Gonna make this a two part rundown and will start with the circus tenent.
The circus tenent is multifaceted. It starts with the fact that Always Dreaming is a very fast horse in the right circumstances. One of those circumstances is compromised speed. Obviously another is advantaged \"pace\" on a favorable surface. In regard to the surface and competition, Always Dreaming has had good draws for 3 races.
Before we get to the Derby, lets go back to the Florida Derby. In that race, it is more than fair to say that No one knows what kind of race Always Dreaming ran that day, other than to say pace advantaged Always Dreaming kept close and drew off, which is how he rolls. But the reason nobody knows what kind of race Always Dreaming ran that day is because there were no Dirt Races to evaluate the track upon. It was the Florida Derby and 13 Grass Heats. Now that\'s an exaggeration, but it is not that far off.
Of some significance is that the first race was a 4^ NW2X. \"So What\" you say! Come a time a horse is 4YO is there still eternal optimism? Well on Florida Derby Day there was! That first race conditional allowance horse set a track record. Later, Always Dreaming shadowed, drew off and beat the renowned but throttled down speed popper State of Honor. The choke hold that day was epic. You say, \"But what about the Derby funny man!\" Review that 1st race and review that day, its part of the circus tenent.
Later, I\'ll take the base tenent, add some quickness, anecdote, logic and projection, mix it around and pour it out of the bag as the completed circus tenent and from under it reveal some horse plays and horse noplays in the new Tiered Format! Not trying to build drama, just not ready quite yet. Coffee is an ingredient still have to add.
Ned
T-7
Rather cosmic, some circus analysis returns just as The Ringling Brothers
operation folds up The Big (not New) Top sometime in the near future.
They need PT Barnum right now.
richiebee Wrote:
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> T-7
>
> Rather cosmic, some circus analysis returns just
> as The Ringling Brothers
> operation folds up The Big (not New) Top sometime
> in the near future.
Well, time to check the weather again. That track could make it interesting.
still lookin at the race Richie. That first race winner on april fools day had one other condition I missed, restricted allowances, He had set a previous track record, but was seven years old.
...Oh, I almost forgot...he did so never changing leads
Not certain what is going on with the weather there in Baltimore, but it could make for an interesting day. The track is currently a bit of a bog and not sure it can dry even if there is no more rain. All bets for me are contingent at this moment.
Multiplier - Not going to ignore miles in 1:35 and 9 panels in 1:47. How far up he\'s used will depend on the track at race time. The more heavy, the more use. We get a peek at his vanquished opponent in the Sir Barton before deciding. Currently T2
Cloud Computing - Castellano on, having seen the horrid break last thought he ran extremely well. Would have made him a big pace player on a dry track, now will have to wait and see, but he appears quickest if he wants to use it, but don\'t think Castellano will, though don\'t think Always Dreaming would like that. Dry track and he could be a results altering horse. Use up to T2 depending on track.
Hence - Having been high on Hence, the track will be the deciding factor and probably won\'t have a firm opinion until seeing the track condition late and how Hence looks on it in the post parade.
Always Dreaming - He\'s going to be odds on.
Classic Empire - Expecting a big run regardless of track, Tier 1
Gunnevera - Gotta give him a pass on the Florida Derby where he spotted far too much ground on that surface. Also have to forgive the Derby slop. Still not enamored with Castellano off. T2 with select T1 use.
Looking at Lee - T2
Conquest Mo Money - T2 with select T1 use. He could inherit the lead on a different type of track than others have been used to.
Now this stated. The track condition will be dispositive for me. If it gets anywhere near Derby Day, this race will be a pass.
Final Choices very late
atakante Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"This horse is not that good...he\'s not even gonna
> be 4th on my superfectas. He was the beneficiary
> of perfect trips and big inside track bias on
> Churchill Downs.\"
Got to give Beyer some credit on this...calling for tossing the favorite all the way out of the super.
That was impressive, although 3 of the 4 horses he picked missed the super, (he had CE winning)
Yes, and as expected on current board makeup, the people killing Beyer for it are as silent as church mice.
Jim
Not here but I wasn\'t critical of him but of the idea it was all bias. And I\'m eating g crow crap whatever.
Perhaps TG can do a Pletcher Study and say if it isn\'t a wet track rail bias Pletcher is 0 for a 1,000 in Derbies...
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> atakante Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > \"This horse is not that good...he\'s not even
> gonna
> > be 4th on my superfectas. He was the
> beneficiary
> > of perfect trips and big inside track bias on
> > Churchill Downs.\"
>
>
> Got to give Beyer some credit on this...calling
> for tossing the favorite all the way out of the
> super.
Beyer also dismissed CC and ridiculed Chad Brown as nothing more than a turf trainer, spewing a bunch of false stats about him.
Beyer is like Bozo The Clown, hanging on to relevance from 40 years ago.ome period. Tossing a favorite in a race doesn\'t change that. Another complete whiff from Andy.
Is this the second or third G1 dirt win for CB? Now compare that to the 10,000 or so he\'s won on turf. I think the stats probably backed up Beyer, or at least enough to not deserve that blasting.
NormandyInvasion Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is this the second or third G1 dirt win for CB?
> Now compare that to the 10,000 or so he\'s won on
> turf. I think the stats probably backed up Beyer,
> or at least enough to not deserve that blasting.
According to TG stats, his win % on dirt is higher thab turf. The only reason he hasn\'t had classic dirt winners til now is because he hasn\'t been given the horses. I suspect that will change. If you can train a horse t win on turf, you can win on any surface.
That was not a logical reason to dismiss CC. His statement on Brown was something I would expect to hear from an amateur handicapper that bets once a year.
The \"Preakness death\" to Derby winners who triumphed over off tracks continues apace.
Foolish words by him. Also - Connect is not only going to win the Met, he\'s going to flirt with the track record. If Baffert sees the reply of his last wouldn\'t be shocked to see Mor Spirit audible out. #runningforsecond. Horse is going to win the BC Mile as well. Chad on dirt will be more of a mantra then Chad on turf in 2017. Congrats to Cloudy. One more leg to go.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, and as expected on current board makeup, the
> people killing Beyer for it are as silent as
> church mice.
>
> Jim
Did he cash the ticket Jimbo?
Good Luck,
Joe B
Most of the game is factoring how to beat a heavy favorite. It would be nice to cash doing so, but you still have to pick a horse to do that.
Cloud Computing ran a great race. To those that picked him as your clear winner. Take a bow.
Coffee is ready, then time to read what Jerry thought!
Well, if I\'d taken TG\'s advice I\'d have cashed.
Equibase allows a trainer search but unfortunately does not provide itemized results and lumps dirt and synth together in the query result. Guessing Brown does not run that many on synth since there are so few GradeA options.
Also does not allow a specific Grade 1 breakout but does let you filter on just graded stakes. Given those caveats:
2017:
Brown is 21-7-3-3 in graded dirt/synth stakes
ranks 5th in earnings with 2.3m
ranks 3rd in wins, only Baffert(13) and Pletcher(10) have more
2016:
Brown was 56-9-12-11
Ranked 6th in total earnings
Only Baffert, Pletcher, Mclaughlin, and Hollendorfer had more dirt stakes wins
Hey Even a broken clock is right twice a day, Serling doesnt impress, he has his moments just like we all do, the best was when Serling declared Frosted Horse of the yr after he won the Met mile, Tom Amoss was sitting next to him and couldnt stoplaughing it was a Classic Moment on TV