Apparently Always Dreaming is already even money to win the Preakness Saturday. By post time I suppose the crowd will beat him down to 3/5. Hot Damn I say.
I\'ve been reading the ROTW advise its readers to bet against recent winners and equine celebrity favorites for years. Usually against horse I liked to win. So I more or less watched those races until I could fully comprehend the principal of betting against a horse that looked to have a hot hand and momentum in its favor.
This week I\'m using both hands to play against Always Dreaming. Speed Bias experts have made their case that he was moved up in the derby. The patient practical people are waiting for another energy sapping effort prior to piling on against him @ Bel.
So-called weather experts are claiming clear & dry for \"old hilltop\" Sat. I wanted to go public early before he gets jinxed by the post position draw.
I don\'t need to psyche the pacesetter or forecast fractions. I still believe in the wisdom of the crowd. I just think there is 50% probability that AD loses.
Next Chapter - Who will inherit the win and how many will beat him.
I\'ll try to beat AD. Never bet the favorite
CE is too low to play it, maybe in exactas, tris
I like cloud computing as my selection, with new jockey and good start. Excellent trainer and good horse :)
I\'m far from saying I\'m against AD, but I\'m equally as far away from saying I\'m playing him, at least as far as a win bet is concerned.
Before the sunset last Saturday I said I liked a 3 horse tri AD,CE,CMM, not sure who if any gets the Key. But I really took a liking to CMM in watching his race replays while handicapping before the derby, loved his grit in the stretch at Oaklawn, and CE had a litany of excuses last week. I do think AD\'s the best of the bunch (right now) though.
It \"feels\" kind of like we may have seen this show before,like deja vu or something. TAP & Super Saver/AD, the off tracks, the rail talk, the derby ml favorite comes back in two weeks, looking at lucky/CE and get their revenge...maybe?
I expect MOA to be DOA on the board, quite possibly going off at the longest odds of any in the race... but O\'Neil could be doing the \"Dougy\" with yet another shipper sitting on one?
Still way to many questions that need to be answered before I\'m ready to fully commit, but as of today, I\'m against the closer\'s. That\'s about as far as I\'ve got. How bout you, a horse or two for each hand or do like one in particular?
boardedup Wrote:
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> I\'m far from saying I\'m against AD, but I\'m
> equally as far away from saying I\'m playing him,
> at least as far as a win bet is concerned.
>
>I really took a liking to CMM in
> watching his race replays while handicapping
> before the derby, loved his grit in the stretch at
> Oaklawn, and CE had a litany of excuses last week.
> I do think AD\'s the best of the bunch (right now)
> though.
>
> It \"feels\" kind of like we may have seen this
> show before,like deja vu or something. TAP & Super
> Saver/AD, the off tracks, the rail talk, the derby
> ml favorite comes back in two weeks, looking at
> lucky/CE and get their revenge...maybe?
>
Conquest More Money was dead game in the Arkansas Derby, taking on all comers before yielding late. Also he appears to be the only other established front end horse to challenge Always Dreaming. Have some questions about the nature of he Arkansas Derby track I haven\'t answered yet, but he\'s a possibility.
As pertains to the favoring inside path on the Derby race, gotta keep in mind Always Dreaming is gonna make his own luck with his engaged style. He can find the part of the track that\'s best and Velasquenz certainly knew to do that during the Derby Race. Still, if he was advantaged by the path and has to be back in two weeks and regresses a bit that could be enough. Super Saver on the other hand was a little less tactical. He rode the rail from behind in the race and it was clear his rail ride was pivotal to his win. Always Dreaming is a different style horse, albeit a smallish horse.
If you like Conquest Mo Money and I do based upon the conditioning of running at Sunland and his style of run, what does one think of Hence? The latter will be coming from behind, but he waltzed into Sunland and ran a big race. He gets a pass on the Derby Run, heck most everyone does, still looking.
Now the TG numbers are not going to validate looking around. They are solid for the favorites, but in this one its gonna take more than Figs alone to convince me to ignore the others.
I\'m willing to take a shot at double digit odds that Gunnevera can circle back close to his top... IMO he has legitimate excuses in the last 2.
CE looks very usable as well but where will his price end up... Especially in the horizontals? The 5-1 currently being offered offshore seems unlikely.
Do you think more ground helps Conquest Mo Money?
Same question could be asked of Cloud Computing.
Trakus shows CE had enough ground loss to cover the lengths behind he finished while eating mud and getting rammed into. While the betting public has already labeled Always Dreaming the second coming of Secreteriat, me thinks CMM and more early speed may be his undoing this time while CE gets a nice stalking trip he couldn\'t get in CD. Expecting a more even finish with multiple contenders within several lengths if it\'s not a sloppy track. AD will have to run another top in my mind to repeat what he did the other week. Can he do it? Maybe, it seems he came out healthy and galloping well in MD. Let\'s see if Team Pletcher has another rabbit left inside their hat.
boardedup
Hm.. after sleeping on my rant, I\'m now thinking about using just one hand to bet with. My stand against AD is somewhat visceral and the appearance of Allday into the narrative as someone who can affect the natural order gives me momentary pause.
I liked CE and Hence going into the Derby. I still think CE is a capable colt and have fewer doubts about him than others. I loved Hence in Kentucky. His race on the other hand was weird bad. He actually showed run late in the going which is not what I would expect from a spent bouncing horse. I\'m making up some alternative facts pointing to either - he was homesick, had stage fright or aqua-phobia.
Lookin At Lookin At Lee some as under appreciated by players but is not Exaggerator imo.
Can\'t say I agree that he has to run another new top. I also don\'t believe the Preakness pace will be as hot as the Derby. Even if Dreaming runs a 0 he will most likely have an ideal trip 1w maybe 2w at worst and win. Classic Empire would be the one horse I could see beating him but his conditions are even less ideal then Always dreaming with the loss of training, 3 week turn around into derby and now a 2 week gap into Preakness (also less likely to have the ideal trip). I need to see numbers on Conquest because he is the most logical horse to me with a nice trip to hit at a price. Brown\'s horse is nice but not sure I can see him moving much further forward in his short career.
big18741 Wrote:
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> Do you think more ground helps Conquest Mo Money?
Not sure but have to say as critical as I was of Uncle Mo, I like his get to this point. This one has a Seeking the Gold mare and that\'s not all bad. I like Hence\'s pedigree more. Son of Street Sense out of a A.p. Indy mare. Of the Mo\'s the one I wanted was Royal Mo. It\'s a shame we lost him but the Mo\'s are looking a little ouchy. Check Royal Mo\'s maiden win, who he beat and what he accomplished next. I mean its all relative right? But one tenant of making figures here is to do it off the horses. In that regard I wish Sonneteer had taken to the goo.
If you\'re concerned about Conquest Mo Money\'s ability to stretch that last sixteenth that\'s probably a valid concern. However, he\'s run on some slowish tracks and thrown some good times. The Arkansas Derby track looks a bit faster and he wasn\'t able to hold Classic Empire safe, but it was his first race away from home and look who he beat in third. He\'s been toting near load and I kind of like him, will check recent works soon.
>
> Same question could be asked of Cloud Computing.
Candidly I have a lot less sense of Cloud Computing. Two inner races don\'t instill a whole lot of confidence. The Wood was a good race. Many handicappers thought Irish War Cry was the horse off the Wood and he was there but he ran a little wide and was probably sitting on a little bounce. Beaten 7 there not all bad. You\'re probably in a better position than I to analyze pattern on these two.
Cloud Computing reminds me of a 3yo that Dutrow trained. Ran in the Lookin at Lucky Preakness. Colt\'s name was Yawanna Twist who ran 4th beat about a length for the whole thing at a big price. Ran on the inner twice.
I used to play that angle because rumor had it back then that the turns on the inner mimicked Pimlico. Who knows. But I nearly made the score of a lifetime when Badge lost a bob to Menifee in Charismatic\'s Preakness. May have been Luzzi\'s best ride ever.
Those were the days my friends. These are not!!!!
Good Luck,
Joe B
T Sev you write \"wasn\'t able to hold Classic Empire\" safe as a determent? Aside from the impossible trip at Churchill, exactly two horses have finished in front of the 2yo champ, both Grade one winners! Rock solid racehorse. bbb
bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> T Sev you write \"wasn\'t able to hold Classic
> Empire\" safe as a determent? Aside from the
> impossible trip at Churchill, exactly two horses
> have finished in front of the 2yo champ, both
> Grade one winners! Rock solid racehorse. bbb
No I wasn\'t disparaging Classic Empire for winning the Ark, but I haven\'t fallen in love with him either! The comment was about Conquest Mo Money but after my Ark day track review I like him even more.
Likely odds on for Always Dreaming and if you are lucky 3-1 on Classic Empire. I think he\'ll be a little less.
Well, if AD goes off at 4-5 and CE at 5-2, there are going to be some outrageous odds on good horses.
In your haste to draw everything back to \"class\", you\'ve incorrectly labeled IWC and Gunnevera Grade 1 winners... You also failed to mention the debacle at Saratoga last summer but why let facts get in the way of a good story.
To me graded stakes and \"class\" are about as relevant as a Pitcher\'s win-loss record in baseball... Although I suppose there are still people out there who quote that stat as well.
Good luck
Mc990 Wrote:
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> I\'m willing to take a shot at double digit odds
> that Gunnevera can circle back close to his top...
> IMO he has legitimate excuses in the last 2.
>
I like this thought.
Which \"debacle at Saratoga\" are you referring? bbb
That would be the Hopeful.
Has the draw opened up anymore doors for anyone here?
I\'ve been driving the CMM bandwagon for the past 6 weeks and I\'m not parking it now at a 15-1 m/l that I think will certainly go up from there, with the flood of public money coming in on the familiar \"names\" be it derby starters and/or trainers alike.
If AD\'s price action on derby day is any indicator, he\'ll be absolutely clobbered at the windows coming off a decisive win. I think he actually gets bet down, 3-5, 2-5 at post is my guess? Meanwhile CE\'s odds were no less than shocking to me last out. This leaves me to believe he\'ll offer significant value again. I think you get every bit of 3-1, 7/2, way to good to refuse in my opinion. Any thoughts?
I was hoping CMM would draw inside of AD. He was going to the front regardless so breaking from the 10 is what it is. Not what I was hoping for but not the end of the world. AD was always going to be able to get to where Johnny V wants him no matter what, but the easier time CMM has to get the lead or right behind it,and the more ground saved, the better.
I think there will be a serious battle at the top of the stretch. I think CC who\'s very likely to be over bet, goes away first of those up front. CMM will go eyeball to eyeball with AD and we\'ll see what happens. I\'m decidedly not in the camp of those who think he\'ll get put away easily. Logic would then say that it should open up for someone coming from off the pace. I think CE gets the jump on all the rest and frankly is just better. To me he\'s the most likely to benefit from race shape and dynamics.
The price\'s are right on the closer\'s though if you think it gets ugly on the front end. Hence @ 30-1? What about the Illinois Derby winner? Can he workout a nice stalking trip for a piece on the improve? I\'m on the fence again, is this a spread spot, or a stick to your guns,load up and pray kind of race?
The prices will be there again this weekend to justify just about anything. The quote that someone posted the other week holds true again, something like \"at 20-1 there isn\'t much you have to like about a horse.\"
I don\'t like CMM\'s post, either, for the following reason: I\'ve seen too many horses in the outside post break out. Johnny V surely won\'t want CE, breaking right next to AD, lapped on top of AD, so Johnny\'s gonna go. If CMM breaks out at the start and Johnny\'s going, AD\'s on the lead and CMM is being hard-used to overcome breaking out.
Doesn\'t have to happen this way; CMM could rocket out of the gate straight as a non-North Korean missile. But I do hate betting the outside horse.
(Apologies for a sheets content-free posting.)
From The Kool Aide Klan - Hence is inside AD in PP #3. The trainer said that Hence didn\'t like or handle the kickback @ CD. One way to handle dirt in the face is to not be behind horses. Hence actually has enough early speed (early fractions @ Sun), should the rider/trainer, choose to used it to get position in the first turn. This may also be true of the ILL derby winner. (Edit - Oops I meant CC.) While a change in tactics for Hence would be unexpected, imo, absolutely necessary to be any factor Sat.
AD may go to the front and that would seem like the strategy but I, contrary, to trainer TAP am not convinced he is a good gate horse.
As opposed to CE who hasn\'t broken sharply from the gate since last year when he was 1st and 2nd blinkers.
The only trips that seem predictable are for Cloud Computing and Multiplier saving ground.
Cloud Computing gets a suck around trip in behind the speed and Multiplier a suck up trip from mid pack.
AD,CMM and CE if he breaks sharply are siting 1-2-3 in some order.
Cloud Computing has to be in the pocket saving ground.
No reason for Multiplier to get off the rail.
No talk of the fastest horse TG wise.
He did move forward in the Derby and just may be sitting on another forward move.
Not a bad Jock either
johnnym Wrote:
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> No talk of the fastest horse TG wise.
> He did move forward in the Derby and just may be
> sitting on another forward move.
> Not a bad Jock either
Shhhh...
I am SORRY!! LOL
Easily the best value on the board in the big race. Let\'s hope he can get home for us! Cheers.
Is this ultra hush-hush horse (shown in \"Race of the Week\") with the ultra hush- hush best figure (shown in \"Race of the Week\") going to get the same pace set-up as he got in the ultra hush-hush race (shown in \"Race of the Week\") at \"The Track From Where Big Figures Often Don\'t Transfer\"?
(I feel like Danny DeVito in L.A. Confidential.)
Well, one of the deep closers has to get a trip. Could be him.
Oh... I don\'t want her, you can have her, she\'s too... for me.
I don\'t see him running back to his top here even if you view last as some sort of recovery line. Price may be right and can\'t fault anyone for playing that way if you view the numbers and pattern that way. But if you take him its a shot at best IMO.
Without Handicapping Pimlico today, Three (3) dirt routes. Two won by odds on horses. One was Dominant GTW and another was from off the pace with the 8/1 pace setter nearly lasting. The third and last race was a veteran maiden sliding down the claiming ranks who romped extending its lead inside on both turns. Clearly not a bad place to be but otherwise ???
GTW - Lead Gate To Wire
OTP - Off the pace
PTP - Pressed The Pace
Race #1 - GTW 4/5 winner sprint Turf
Race #2 - OTP 3/5 winner route Dirt
Race #3 - GTW Rail Sprint 16/1 winner Dirt
Race #4 - GTW Rail Route Turf 2/5 winner
Race #5 - GTW Rail 2/5 dominant winner route Dirt
Race #6 - From OTP 5F turf 3/1 winner
Race #7 - PTP took over outside on turn angle in to finish 28/1 winner 6F Dirt
Race #8 - OTP got up 9/5 winner route Turf
Race #9 - GTW 4/1 winner route Dirt.
hellersorr Wrote:
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> I don\'t like CMM\'s post, either, for the following
> reason: I\'ve seen too many horses in the outside
> post break out. Johnny V surely won\'t want CE,
> breaking right next to AD, lapped on top of AD, so
> Johnny\'s gonna go. If CMM breaks out at the start
> and Johnny\'s going, AD\'s on the lead and CMM is
> being hard-used to overcome breaking out.
>
> Doesn\'t have to happen this way; CMM could rocket
> out of the gate straight as a non-North Korean
> missile. But I do hate betting the outside
> horse.
>
> (Apologies for a sheets content-free posting.)
Which is quickest and more inclined to go is the issue for me. \"Ahhh said the blind man\". It\'s not a two horse pace scenario for me anymore though. There\'s a third that probabilities say will play a key Pace role.
Not sure what Beyer has projected to so confidently toss the favorite, but you have to respect that kind of courage/conviction. Though steadfast, he ran on the best part of the track last but then he figures to find the best part again and then it will come down to the quality of the others not compromised by the wrong path.
They\'ve taken some time with him. Note the white sheet. Its a different era now and that\'s a reason I favored him in the Derby, but he is a smallish horse, though put together well for distance. Still whether his size is ideal or not in coming back like this when they have clearly wanted time before. How he handles a cut block out of the gate no one knows either. Then there is the issue of the Derby track. I won\'t however be factoring bounce. The other factor that could etch his starch is genuinely having to work at staying close. He\'s had things very much his own way.
I won\'t be as brave as Beyer, I\'ll have a graduated ticket hoping he misses out of as much as I can beat him
Just curious because I respect your opinion, but what reason are you not viewing it that way?
I\'ll use him marginally, the whole don\'t get beat by the fastest horse thing.. but much like CC, I\'m not convinced that he\'s that good Johnny? Yes he\'s run fast, but to me he/they are needing those in front to falter. And I personally don\'t think that happens. I don\'t see all three of the front running/pressing horses I mentioned previously giving up the ghost late.
He\'s ran \"decent\" with trouble/excuses in his last two and has been beaten like a combined ~ 16 lengths or so?(not sure of the exact #) I go back to what Sano said after the FL Derby,\"... he finished strong but the horses in the front weren\'t stopping...\" to me, that\'s the story of this one.
Certainly possible but tough to see him getting back to that with two weeks rest. If he was fully recovered from the effort in the FD I would have expected a better performance in the KD, and I realize he didn\'t have the best of trips. Hard to see the two weeks making a difference. Just my read.
It\'s certainly a risk playing him to get back to his top but to me the price will be right. As Sekrah mentioned, he seems the clear value. The horse was live on the tote 2 weeks ago and now he seems an afterthought.... At 12-1 I don\'t need to look that hard to find excuses for his last 2.
I believe he never got hold of the track Derby day.
Watched the replay several times, to me he looked like he was climbing the whole way down the opening 1/4 mile.
Furthermore JJ had the rail with him, then for some reason after the first turn decided to go 3/4w if he sat on the rail he would of had the same trip as LAL just in front of him.
Gunnevara ran the big number back in February. Before the Florida Derby, I (and others) thought he was a bet against in the Florida Derby because he didn\'t need the points, might not be fully cranked and might regress a bit off the big number.
So when he lost the Florida Derby, it was no surprise to me. But as I posted at that time, the way he lost was a big concern. He didn\'t have a Monarchos type run where he ran well but came up a bit short. He showed zero run the entire race, barely going by a few distance challenged horses in very late stretch and never really being in the race. Some people defended the run because of the way the pace held up, but for me it was a HORRENDOUS race and there was no way you could play this horse in the Derby. Horses don\'t run big in the derby off of non-efforts in their prior races.
So, MAYBE Gunnevara moved forward a tiny bit in the Derby. I say \"maybe\" because there is at least a fair question as to whether TGJB has the derby a point or so fast, but even if the figure is exactly right, the tiny move forward doesn\'t seem like a portender of a return to his top, especially off of only 2 weeks of rest. Javier certainly doesn\'t think so. After calling this horse a derby winner in February, Castellano is abandoning ship pretty quickly for another longshot (who i think has a good shot).
The Florida Derby was a sign to \"stick a fork\" in Gunnevara in his current form cycle. Think he stays that way until maybe a freshening and summer campaign.
But hey, the price will be right, so can\'t fault anybody or trying. Personally, would rather take a similar price on horses \"on their way up\" and not \"over the top\". Conquest Mo Money and Cloud Computing seem to fit that bill for me. With Classic Empire being the horse to beat if you don\'t like the favorite.
Will be structuring my pick-4 and pick-5 tickets with 60% to CE and 20% each to Conquest Mo Money and Cloud Computing.
Good luck
Jim
I\'m expecting CC to be less that 10-1 at post time
While I expect Gunny to be closer to 20-1
Early line AD is 1-5 CE 5-1 CC 24-1
Good luck
I don\'t see him cycling back to that top off 2 weeks rest.
To me, in order to view his line that way you would have to say he bounced in the FL Derby off the big effort and then didn\'t like the track on Derby day. That is certainly possible, and the price will be right. Can\'t fault anyone for looking it at that way. But I view his line as being more over the top and he\'s not likely to get a strong pace to run at here. He\'s already outrun his breeding IMO.
So even at the price I have to pass and let him beat me.