I know I\'m not the only one with some questions and certainly do not claim to be figure maker, the reason I buy TG.....
The day and stand alone race had to be a nightmare and understanding projections it\'s a tough sell to X that much of the field for sure.
One could argue the given number to the first 4 finishers but there is no doubt that 2,3,4 finishers all moved forward from their previous effort. I was not expecting a top for AD with a 1w 1w last half mile in 52 seconds? He and Lee were the only ones running in the lane.
The 2 I have a VERY DIFFICULT time swallowing are McCracken pairing his Sam Davis running 8th and Patch pairing his LA Derby running 14th?
1st post on here ever, you could say I\'m a First Time Starter, some may even say I have good workouts, whatever that means. Seems like a fun crowd though, it was my 1st time reading on here leading up to the Derby, lots of differing opinions, which makes the game great.
I too was wondering how these numbers would come back because it\'s possible that enough didn\'t like the track that they could have just been an X for that alone. The more I watched the replay the better the effort looked, he really made all the running himself. Perhaps being against the horse aided in \"guessing\" what number AD would get, and the competition behind him certainly raised more concern even if it was 2 of the more likely horses to move forward in the race, but at the end of the day, he was the only one that really ever looked like a winner, and figure aside it wouldn\'t shock me if he went to the Preakness and wins again, although I\'m somewhat suspicious still and certainly wouldn\'t single or bet at 3-5.
FrankD. Wrote:
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> I know I\'m not the only one with some questions
> and certainly do not claim to be figure maker, the
> reason I buy TG.....
>
> The day and stand alone race had to be a nightmare
> and understanding projections it\'s a tough sell to
> X that much of the field for sure.
> One could argue the given number to the first 4
> finishers but there is no doubt that 2,3,4
> finishers all moved forward from their previous
> effort. I was not expecting a top for AD with a 1w
> 1w last half mile in 52 seconds? He and Lee were
> the only ones running in the lane.
>
> The 2 I have a VERY DIFFICULT time swallowing are
> McCracken pairing his Sam Davis running 8th and
> Patch pairing his LA Derby running 14th?
This one\'s for Jerry, but we\'ve learned enough here to understand this race has to be scored as a \"one off\'. Changing Track...hell yeah, Bias, Novel Distance, you can\'t really expect a solid 12,500 claimer for six furlongs figure can you?
Will leave it to him lots of math, lots of art, lots of work. What I really want to say is that I fear for our Country tonight. I\'m not sure how its going to turn out but the last time a President impeded an investigation like this at least the Attorney General and \"implicated\" party had some sense of ethics. I\'m not sure where we are now.
God Bless America
Frank -
I was guessing a point slower, but this distribution of tops, pairs, etc. fits pretty well with Derby history.
I\'m not sure I understand your points regarding McCraken and Patch. McCraken\'s top of 2 was only 10th fastest coming in. Patch\'s LA Derby fig was the 19th fastest last prep fig in the field, beating only Fast and Accurate.
I often find that TG gives more credit for ground loss than I do. For example, I had Battle of Midway and Irish War Cry 2w and 3w, respectively, around the second turn, but TG has them 3w and 4w. On the other hand, there is some rounding in the printed path data that I don\'t really understand and that may exaggerate our differences.
Bit,
The flip side of your not understanding my point would be the 10th fastest horse ran 8th & the 19th fastest horse ran 14th. Those would be forward moves! We both know it\'s not that simple, if it was I would have retired long ago....
My point is a TG figure is a performance based number. Does the way either of those 2 horses ran on Saturday equate to their winning and placing performances in graded Derby preps?
Can AD run three negatives in a row?
Has there ever been a lightly raced three year old run three negatives in a row?
I believe the chart reported McCraken 4 wide on the first turn. That seemed to be more than I saw. After that it was hard to tell who was who. Some wide ones in turn two but the Scarlett silks didn\'t seem to be widest. Again if I was watching the correct horse McCraken was not finishing with any interest. I agree with Frank hard to see his derby as anything but a backward move.
On a related note, I was wondering should a horse get more ground loss for a ninety degree louie than say a 15 degree left slide.
I have always enjoyed this Board and many of the comments have added to a lifetime of handicapping education but I confess not quite understanding the angst over the numbers for the Derby or why some ( Hi Frank) are already trying to decide who to bet behind AD in the Preakness. I was dead wrong about AD going into saturday but why in the world would I give too much weight to the race. The conditions were awful and even those with wet track pedigree don\'t fire in soup. Since most on the Board conclude the a rail bias if Pimlico is dry next week shouldn\'t this present a betting opportunity. AD is not yet American Pharoah. I also recall that 2 years ago many on this Board screamed AP wa a bet against- after the Derby, after the Preakness. Why is a pattern of 9, 9, zero and whatever TGJB gives AD for the Derby evidence of greatness. He may be - but not yet. I am reasonably certain Bret Hanover and Niatross did their last quarters in a faster time than this years Derby. I have no idea who will run against AD or the figures butbI will be looking to beat AD.
If you change any of them you have to change all of them.
I have a question about Always Dreaming\'s first two races this year.
Should have have gotten a \"h?\" designation for both of those races?
if yes, to me that changes his sheet read quite a bit.
I don\'t get all the talk about how slow AD came home? I think it\'s fairly obvious that the horse runs as fast as needed to win..and win easily. He ran hard but I don\'t think that got to his bottom yet. Regardless if it\'s a 9, 0, -1, it seems like he runs the same race consistently.
He pressed a legit pace, put away everyone on the front end with relative ease and was adding distance on the entire field at the wire. He ran huge again. I realize final times don\'t have much at all to do w fig\'s, but I mean he ran his derby faster than Super Saver and Smarty Jones both did on a sloppy track, faster than Sunday Silence on a muddy track, and faster than California Chrome did on a fast track. To me he ran a dominate race on par with what other recent quality three year olds did. Some people were talking about the eye test. To my eye he DOES remind me of AP, not with his actual stride or gait, but that he seems to cruise on top of the track and looks like he\'s moving more effortlessly than everyone around him. He \"looked\" way the best and a winner every step of the way.
Obviously it\'s early but to date I\'ve seen nothing from him to make me think he\'s a bet against in MD. Sure price and Pletcher, but Pletcher did everything different w him so it\'s not really a \"normal\" TAP. Now come Belmont that\'s a completely different story for sure.
Speaking of TAP and how he handled the prep for this one. He was also TAP\'s first derby favorite. What can we take out of that? Was it all about getting previous horses into the gate knowing they weren\'t likely to win. Did he \"know\" he was finally saddling \"the one\" potentially so he handled him as such? Does this change what we think about him as it compares to the derby overall? What about the similar track conditions in both his wins? Definitely a lot to think about..
boardedup
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221483/connections-plan-comes-together-with-always-dreaming
Pretty much answers the questions you asked. They knew they had a special colt and they treated him differently. Now it isn\'t all on the trainer but also the owner. Things could have went wrong in the florida derby and he doesn\'t even make the Kentucky Derby field but the owners were willing to take that chance. None of this is really surprising. I loved the way they brought him into the race and it was apparent he was handled differently. It was also apparent people knew about this horse in the Florida Derby considering he was 5-2 off a couple of low beyers and terrible thorograph numbers.
If all this talk about Always Dreaming\'s first two races is true, then shouldn\'t his first two races have gotten an \"h?\" designation? if yes, I would think the read of his sheet would be far different.
Why couldn\'t you just have given him that yourself, if it would\'ve changed your read on him that much? It\'s subjective anyway, you know.
BitPlayer Wrote:
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I had Battle of
> Midway and Irish War Cry 2w and 3w, respectively,
> around the second turn, but TG has them 3w and 4w.
> On the other hand, there is some rounding in the
> printed path data that I don\'t really understand
> and that may exaggerate our differences.
Derby Replay (http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2017/05/06/race-replay-watch-kentucky-derby-2017-again/312310001/)
Of course is was not a rail run, but being \"inside\" is a term of art on bias days. If folks don\'t think there was an inside edge, unrelated to saved ground, so be it.
Actually, that turned out well. We can only hope for a similar outcome.
Does anybody really know what time it is?
I\'ll second that.
Tale Of Ekati Wrote:
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> Can AD run three negatives in a row?
> Has there ever been a lightly raced three year old
> run three negatives in a row?
Curlin had 9 races as a three year old and I don\'t think one of them was over 0.5.
Absolutely correct Sekrah, just looked up his sheet. My God that was one amazing racehorse. What a sheet!!
Exactly, FP!
The numbers are based on guesses and assumptions--however professional. Some people (and some trolls) used \"numbers\" to bet against TAP and AD, and to dismiss BOM because of the assumptions about the SA Derby. And I loved the way LAL closed in the Arkansas Derby (and that Lanerie was up), but got caught up myself in the numbers surrounding the (1st) post position in the big race.
You have to use some figs and stats, sure, but when you put it all on the subjective interpretation of a number, you\'re not betting on horses anymore.
Leamas
Just wish his son had some of that Saturday
jerry Wrote:
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> Does anybody really know what time it is?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZKmdfUNBHo
Please lawdy let the frenchie stay in contact with AD early in the Preakness. Please tell me that\'s gonna be the \"team plan\" heading in. Make it a fair fight with a good trip, not far off the pace. Please let this happen O\' lawdy. Always Dreaming will gut that horse like a fish if this happens. When you gut a fish you start away from the guts upward to the head. You then complete the gut by slicing through the body (bony) portion. My concern is try the reverse tactic.
And if he was trained by TAP and owned by business minded interests, that career would have ended the first week of June 2007. Just a post mortem thanks to Jess Jackson and Stonestreet, a current thanks to all Cal Chrome\'s connections, and a wish we could\'ve seen AP face Arrogate.
SoCal, FWIW, I like your question. Watching replays of his two races prior, it\'s hard to tell the level of effort. To me, it raises a paradoxical issue of \"hidden form\" in races which he won?
Thank you, Razzle. Haven\'t seen you in these parts in a long time.