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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jbelfior on May 07, 2017, 10:26:19 AM

Title: Next
Post by: jbelfior on May 07, 2017, 10:26:19 AM
Time to move on. What else can those who took their lumps yesterday do.

Appears that many who ran yesterday will not be going to Baltimore. CE cannot open one of his eyes today and may not run. BOM and Gormley going back to SA while Royal Mo probably goes. McCracken has a puncture in his left hind leg and may be out for a while. Tapwrit and Patch appear headed to the Belmont. LAL likely for the Preakness. Hence and Untrapped unlikely. Practical Joker not going. Ditto IWC.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: Tavasco on May 07, 2017, 10:37:37 AM
I wonder about Wild Shot? Calumet is becoming quite a story.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: jerry on May 07, 2017, 09:53:29 PM
Cloud Computing and Malagasy have been mentioned. Both have run at least one competitive number.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: ajkreider on May 08, 2017, 05:47:51 AM
Was thinking Brown might take a shot with Timeline. Haven\'t seen his numbers, but a salty maiden win and a romp in the slop - talent there for sure.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: jbelfior on May 08, 2017, 08:12:14 AM
Malagacy not going. Looks like Classic Empire is in.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: jerry on May 08, 2017, 08:20:15 AM
Couldn\'t really see Malagacy going any way. Why would you enter a horse who could upend a possible triple crown run?
Title: Re: Next
Post by: jbelfior on May 08, 2017, 09:29:21 AM
Not sure what he would have been upending. At this point, Malagacy wants no part of a 1 3/16ths.

Add Hence to the mix.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: Airnate012 on May 08, 2017, 09:33:04 AM
I think the place to beat Always Dreaming is at Belmont. I don\'t see him losing the Preakness.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: richiebee on May 08, 2017, 09:41:33 AM
I hope you are correct; my bankroll could use another Birdstone.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: Airnate012 on May 08, 2017, 09:50:58 AM
My thoughts EXACTLY. The Derby killed me this year, or maybe I killed myself with the bottle of Woodford watching the undercard then trying to play multiple supers on the Derby with 10 MTP?
Title: Re: Next
Post by: jerry on May 08, 2017, 03:26:38 PM
The Belmont\'s been the money shot. But, if AD did back up a couple of points, won\'t that be a pure 0-2-X play? As good as he looked in the Derby, so did Orb and Super Saver who, coincidently also won their Derbies on sloppy tracks.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: Mc990 on May 08, 2017, 05:47:46 PM
I\'ll wait to see how the figures come back to comment further but to me the percentage play is to be against him at Pimlico.

Seems the majority of the horses with 5-6 weeks into the derby that run well, bounce on the 2 week turnaround. They certainly don\'t move forward which I believe he\'ll have to in order to justify even money or less.

I can only imagine what Pletcher\'s numbers are on 2 weeks rest...

As a side note, If CE goes in the Preakness, what are fair matchup odds vs AD? -110 both sides?
Title: Re: Next
Post by: johnnym on May 08, 2017, 06:03:49 PM
Would love to see AD run a nice big new top in the Preakness.
I\'ll wait for the Belmont.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: FrankD. on May 08, 2017, 06:31:55 PM
Hardly fair,
3/5 against 5/2, 3/1 on CE

I would think you could find +140 on CE
Title: Re: Next
Post by: Mc990 on May 08, 2017, 06:45:02 PM
I should have phrased that differently... As a bettor, what do you make the true odds? To me it seems close to a pick\'em proposition.

Your numbers seem pretty spot on as to what will be available.
Title: Re: Next
Post by: FrankD. on May 09, 2017, 03:54:57 AM
Mc,

You may get me to open a can of worms with this one?

I don\'t see any of the new shooters being a threat if AD came out of the Derby ok. Of those that ran Saturday I\'m of the same opinion that CE has the most realistic shot of upsetting the apple cart.

My twin brother made a price or 2 in a former life and I\'m sure he would put a prop bet out in the same fashion -160 plus +140 or get even cuter with -120 even
Having the favorite spot a length.... LOL

Coming off a Derby where JB has the nightmare of 80% of the field in a Grade 1 off with most X ing. Other than the top 4 could anyone else possibly pair or move forward?

CE will have 3 starts as a three year old not getting back to his 2 year old top.
He has had a litany of issues although he may finally be getting it?
AD could very possibly regress and still win The Preakness unless CE or another takes a pretty big leap forward. That in my world is more than a few points off even money.

The Preakness for me is looking like a horizontal play only. Now the Belmont will have the Kool-Aide plant working overtime...

Good luck,

Frank D.