I have to start a new string as I cannot in good conscience join the BEAST band wagon yet.
Congrats to the connections and to the horse. They overcame some adversity, changed up the normal TAP Derby approach and Johnny V. put him where he needed to be on a biased track. He faced some pressure, the fractions were fast early and he drew off never leaving the outcome in doubt.
AD had 3 things in his favor to get the blanket of roses.
1) He was not in the TAP barn as a 2 yr old. He didn\'t debut at the Spa running a
TG 3. He only had 2 starts, he was not thrown to the wolves ala Syndergard after a gut wrenching Champagne tossed into the BC juvenile.
2) He was babied like no other TAP 3yr old on the Derby trail ever has been before. A Tampa Wednesday maiden breaker with JV making the trip north to ride him against nothing. Then not sent right in to the FOY as per normal MO. Todd got PJ Campo to write a race for him, that Alw race was not in the GP condition book.
There is a lot of debate about the 2 pre Florida Derby figures. Miff who we all know and most have a lot of respect for his conversion of numbers per TG, Rags & Beyer swore that TG was off in the Tampa race per the others. By his conversion of all figs and putting into TG terms had him 10-5-5-8-1. Still not a pretty sheet by any stretch of the imagination, especially heading into The Derby.
Sekrah by whatever method of subtraction etc... questioned both of the figs. I don\'t buy random figure adjustment, it\'s a tricky slope.... I talk with Miff and Jimbo quite a bit and both have been the biggest pain in JB\'s butt about questioning his figs over the years. One a bit more eloquent than the other.
The Tampa track is a quirky one, it\'s a bit deeper than GP and a lot of top outfits have chosen to race and train over it building a foundation. I may question a ground loaded fig from time to time or ala Practical Joke trust my eyes more than the number is the number. I don\'t know anything about Tampa and the Alw race at Gulf was again against nothing on a windy day that produced the slowest raw times of the GP winter meet. So you can argue for a week about the 2 pre FL Derby races but the end result was still not a healthy developing 3 yr old pattern leading to a peak performance on the first Saturday in May. FL Derby, explosive race, BIG new top, visually impressive beating not so much.
So you have a non typical FL winter road to the Derby campaign by a Pletcher horse running a big top no matter how you put in perspective. A losing proposition to most and at the very least a suckers value of 9/2. The horse was handled with kid gloves, lightly raced, not tested and earned his big top with visual ease.
3)The Derby week weather and track maintenance was the final piece in this perfect Derby storm. Anyone who wants to question the overall inside not always speed bias of Oaks & Derby day better bring their A game to debate me about it...
Battle of Midway 2p all the way around following AD and LAL with Corey doing his best Calvin Bo-Rail imitation both ran a lot faster than they ever have before today. How JB does this stand alone race this year with weather is a mystery but I know enough of figure projections to back up the above line.
AD will be even money or less in 2 weeks. Maybe then we can determine Beast status....
Good luck,
Frank D.
Figures will be interesting to do, but it can\'t be a big one for AD, two slow horses near him. At best a pair. Almost certainly the race collapsed in terms of the fast horses not running their races.
It\'s worth remembering that no one outcome is proof of anything. It\'s not even significant evidence, it\'s a data point, along with many others. After the race all outcomes are 100%.
Pace seemed quite honest for the first 6f. Last 4f were run in 52 and change. That type of come home time doesn\'t seem anywhere in the ballpark of AD\'s Florida Derby effort or figure. Just my humble opinion, but I would think a regression of a couple of points would seem more accurate.
Patrick
First off, congrats to Furious Pete and a few others that liked Always Dreaming. Personally, couldn\'t have been more wrong about the race. Hated Always Dreaming and loved Practical Joke and Irish War Cry. The latter was horrendous and the former was just OK (got a ride I could not have expected from post 19 - in a good way, and still was relatively empty).
Despite Treadhead and Jerry apparently not noticing, the rail was iron for almost the two full days. And as is the case with iron rails, speed was really good as well.
That said, hard to say how much that helped AD as he set a \"plus\" pace, put away a horse up front that wasn\'t any good (stately honor), then put away the fastest horse in the race (Irish War Cry) and was drawing away in the stretch. While speed and the rail were good, the visual on the derby wasn\'t one of a bias win. Bias aided wins look like Big World and Benner Island on Friday and CAviar Czar on Saturday. Where the front runner looks like they will be swallowed on the turn and through most of the stretch but they miraculously \"keep finding\".
This horse was extremely good, bias or not. I, for one, am not salivating to bet against (or on) him in 2 weeks in the Preakness. Part of that is that exactly who ran well enough yesterday to give a mulligan to? Maybe Classic Empire, off a terrible trip? Not lookin at lee, who never left a gold rail (great ride).
TGJB, as for the figure. there were 8 lengths between the winner and the third place finisher. I can\'t imagine this is going to be a slow figure. Or a backwards move as JP702006 suggests. What, every horse then X\'ed? Literally every one.
How about another view. The Bluegrass being as fast as TG had it, meant a couple of key things. It meant McCracken was sitting on a nice forward move, perhaps the most likely horse to run well, it meant Practical Joke had a forward moving line with moderate steps and looked great as well. Well, make the Bluegrass two points slower, which is not out of line, all of a sudden McCracken and Practical Joke are both moving backwards, not forwards, Classic Empire still hasn\'t gotten to his 2 year old top and with Irish War Cry sitting on a possible bounce, all the \"fast horses\" maybe don\'t run. (which happened.)
Not sour grapes, just a thought.
Jim
Interesting that both Pletcher Derby wins came under similar conditions. Inside trips on off tracks both drawing away late.
Thought McCracken was making a big move when wiped out by a bearing out Gormley. Would not have won, but certainly could have run at least 3rd. Tapwrit had a rough trip but so did half the field according to the chart.
Point is that its tough to accurately gauge performances yesterday based on trips and conditions. I agree with you that inside was the place to be. Those who had LAL and cashed still have time to get to church this morning.
Those on here that liked AD and stuck to it, nice job.
Let\'s see what happens in 2 weeks. IMO, an excellent opportunity lies ahead.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Jimbo,
I understand that the only way you can make yourself feel better at this point is to put names to your strawmen and try to beat on them, but for the third time, I have already agreed that the first half of Oaks card was speed favoring, and then suggested you should go back and actually watch the last 4 dirt races that day instead of using what happened earlier in the day to bias your opinion. You apparently still have not done that, because to argue that a speed bias existed in those 4 races is impossible to do.
And I never made any comments about Saturday\'s track at all. But I get it, you need someone to beat on, so why not attach my name to some made up assertion I never made and call it out publicly to distract away from how ridiculous your pre-race comments were.
As for the \"how can we improve next time\" post-mortem....
I think pedigree still has to account for something. Not saying you base an entire opinion off it, but the name of the game is how fast is each horse going to run TODAY. When trying out new distances/surfaces, especially longer ones, simply taking a dogmatic view of who had the previously \"fastest\" figures without accounting for how the new conditions might impact their ability to run what they otherwise might seems to be missing key thought.
FrankD mentioned the \"eye test\" when it came to PJ not being able to get past Irap at 9F. That was more than just an \"eye test\". The pedigree data, avg winning dist etc, has always been there to suggest that this horse will be great at 8F, and might start diminishing as you move past that. The Bluegrass visual was a hint that the pedigree data was correct, and has been further validated with the performance yesterday and Brown\'s comments.
Sometimes these 3yr old races require an additional level creative thinking, not just dogmatic number reading, and that was the point Sekrah and FuriousPete went into detail about prior to the race. Another example I\'ll throw out is the last ROTW 3yr old stakes, the Ill Derby, since I commented on it prior to that race. The 2 \"slowest\" horses in the race ran 1-2. The pure TG figure read was to back a horse who figured to not be as good as the races got longer, and was heavily overraced during the winter. That didn\'t work out well their either.
Last comment... the seminar mentioned O\'Neil horses and their out of Cali jumps. Have a look at Denman\'s Call from yesterday, they jump up in Cali as well. Though he did not burn us yesterday, there may not be a more frustrating trainer to have in a race at a major track right now because of the number of 5+ point jumps he throws out there.
Jimbo,
Every coin has 2 sides.
You can draw a line through quite a few horses PP\'s over the past 2 days. Many simply were not allowed to run their race due to where they were or how they were ridden? Did IWC bounce or was his stalking move under normal conditions the correct one but not yesterday? The best example was the first race that we discussed yesterday. Saved by the Swell looked like a TG stick out, made a rail run backside into the turn get to the first flight, tipped out in the lane looking like he was blowing by the inside horses then NADA. I\'ll be betting this one back with both hands next out!
IMHO: There is no need to revisit previous figures based on yesterday\'s or Friday\'s results.
A confusing non profitable couple days here,
Frank D.
Right on, Tread.
Jumbo trolled the shit out of me you and some others on this site. He even went after the weather people He thought AD would place last, he made fun of Battle of Midway when I said the horse would run a big race, and he constantly took things out of context so he could do his bullying troll routine.
And since he\'s probably reading this because that\'s what trolls do, I want him to know that I take back that I ever said he was an expert. -- Expert troll, maybe. But that\'s it.
Leamas
McCraken has the same distance limitations as PJ.
I think it\'s obvious now.
Similar moves coming off the turn in the KYJC,Sam Davis,BG and again yesterday.
He won a couple at 8.5f\'s but that\'s where he maxed out.
They had him ready to run yesterday.Looks like his best distance will be a one turn mile or maybe as a closing sprinter.
Well said Mr. Leamas57. I read here often, but post rarely. Thank You for bringing up your point, no one likes a Bully. Years ago, when we had to be face to face talking at the track or OTB, you had to be more careful of what you say and to who. Nice to see someone step up here, because no matter how wealthy or eloquent a bully can be, he\'s still a bully.
Nice thoughts.
On Practical Joke, he ran his race. Maybe a little short on pedigree. Maybe just doesn\'t mind losing. Maybe a little of both.
On McCraken, he was no lock to go either way. Not the fastest going in on a line that\'s become a sucker\'s line, an unblemished but too brief resume. Also a rough trip.
As for the rail bias, I don\'t remember which race I\'d just watched, maybe the 8th or 10th, but it seemed to play pretty fairly to all paths. Maybe not but closers has some say in the outcome and not all races were won from rail.
Tread / Leamas / Albatross,
Wish you continued success in your business/career aspirations, so that you can remain as contributors to the betting pools.
Leamas,
Pointing out nonsensical statements, incorrect assertions, bad conclusions and mostly drivel, on a board where people talk about sophisticated handicapping, is not \"trolling\".
Albatross,
Rest assured, seeing you, or anybody, in person wouldn\'t change a word that I said.
Big Jimbo66
Frank,
Agree with the unprofitable part. :)
I left some hay money in Elmont and still cannot figure how I snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. LOL
As to the CD \"track bias\".
I think you can look at the \'visual\' and then look at the \"data\" or the charts.
1) OAKS DAY --somewhat deceiving
4 of first 6 races were wtw types and a couple of 3 path to 5 path types. (Most were pretty formful).
As pointed out by Tread, the rest if the card (9th, 11th, 12th, 13th) were all closers.
2) Derby Day-
Race 1- Maximus used rail. #8 (finished 2nd) ran wide
Race 2) No More Dough- a Closer along rail
Race 3) Rocket Time- off pace swung wide. Mo Tom (2nd) closed wide)
Race 4) Caviar Czar - guided off fence
Race 5) TURF- Sir Dudley -wide- will mention that Forge and Ghurair attempted rail moves)
Race 6) Paulasilverlining- raced off rail and off pace
Race 7) Roco Rijo-(TURF) \'prompted pace 4 path! Chart seems to indicate every horse was steered off hedge.
Race 8) Wild Shot- \'tracked 4 wide. No Dozing (2nd) came 5 wide
Race 9) Arklow (TURF)-raced 7th path and came 5 wide- of note- both Oscar and Holiday Stone were near hedge
Race 10) Limousine Liberal- 3 wide closer. Awesome Slew rail with a capital T line and Tom\'s Ready ran wide (3rd) Denman had the rail.
Race 11) TURF- Divisidiero came wide, Beach Patrol set pace off hedge- Conquest went to hedge
Rae 12) Always Dreaming- rail trip Ditto LAL.
Race 13) Visionary Tale close to pace. Inside out
Race 14) Wicked Macho- WTW -
My conclusions:
I am somewhat the anti-Serling when it comes to assigning a track bias. Andy, of course assigns a bias to every track 366 days per/year! Rumor has it that Andy has an I Phone BIAS ALERT APP to remind him that on this day 10 years ago the rail was dead at Oshkosh Downs.
Anyway:
OAKS day: Have to go with the Treadster---Hard to conclude a definite bias. (As far as track bias. Maybe there was track maintenance involved but, overall, the day seemed fair.
DERBY DAY- DIRT- not entirely conclusive to me that a bias existed all day. Was informed by an on track Tgenerate that the track was sealed just before the Derby for the first time all day.
TURF--I am pretty solid in the camp that the May 6th was a dead turf rail day at CD. The few that stayed inside did not fire and it seems most stayed off the hedge.
Bob
I didn\'t cash the derby. And though I had AD on top of a few tickets, even his biggest fans had reason to be worried. The pattern just wasn\'t there.
One doesn\'t identify experts (in horse racing, or anything else) by looking at who called what for a particular event. Hell, my wife took down my March Madness pool one year because she \"had a friend who lived in Arizona\". (As far as TG goes, there were plenty of decent priced winners to be found on the sheets yesterday.)
We\'re all big boys on this site, and should be able take a little heat. Congrats on BoW, btw. I didn\'t have him on a single ticket.
I just want to say a couple of things before I\'ll leave this place alone for a little while, all in all it\'s been fun.
First of all, I appreciate this non-biased resumé of yesterdays winning performance Jimbo. I think what you say about AD and PJ (yesterday) is spot on.
So you backed a loser, no big deal, we all do it more often than we like to admit and it is an essential part of this game we all (mostly) love. That\'s why I\'ve been sort of taken aback with the lack of humility a few people have shown around here, because we all know that none of us know everything, and well, let\'s just say that there is no shortage of humbling experiences along the way in horse racing.
Then there is the ego. Let\'s face it, we\'re all probably narcissists to some degree just for trying to beat this game in the first place. That\'s why there is a lot of ego floating around here, but there is also a lot of great brain power, expertise and experience. My tip to all of us is to constantly aim to chose phrasings and be making points designed to stirr up that brain power, rather than the ego. One should always make the fights about facts, ideas and arguments, and never ever about the person. We all hide behind nick names and one never know who is actually providing the winning arguments, that\'s why the aggressive, personal attacks on \"everyone\" that disagree, from you in particular Jimbo, is catasthropic for the discussion climate around here. You should really be better than that. We\'re not \"zen buddhists\" any of us and the only thing one accomplishes by making things so personal is to divert that \"group genius\" away from solving actual problems. It get\'s repetetive, boring, unintellectual, unstimulating, exhausting, and repetetive (pun intended). I have certainly contributed to that myself during this derby run up, but sometimes one just have to stand up to the bullies and that\'s what it feels like I\'ve been doing.
A lot of the \"unsound dynamics\" on this board would be solved if everyone actually tried to comprehend one posters message before answering it, no matter how \"unelegant\" that message might have been composed. I think everyone on here saw that TreadHead didn\'t neglect a possible speed bias on friday, he only disagreed with the assessment of it being there throughout the entire race day,
and he haven\'t said a thing about a possible bias this or that yesterday at all. He is spot on on his assessment of how you\'ve been treating him, for that. That should be unacceptable behavior, if one were to get a good thing going on this board.
When that is said, one should also be a little more forgiving. When someone offers you a chance to be the better man, everyone should take it. There is oftentimes a fine line between a fight about ideas and arguments, and a fight that gets personal, and it is easy to get carried away sometimes. If you see someone \"bullying\", step in and make things straight in a factual and non-debatable matter. If someone is using straw men arguments to punch someone in the face, arrest them for it. It\'s easy to get carried away, there too. TGJB were right to call me out on a few of them earlier in the week, and was probably wrong to ascribe me to a few of them, too. I didn\'t really want to \"dis\" sheet theory in general, the only point I really wanted to make was that in this particular Derby I felt it could be a slippery slope. And things evolved from there.
But first of all, be open to other peoples ideas. It\'s more than fair enough that this is a TG-board and that most people on here is most interested in patterns and figures and all that, sure! I have a lot to learn about \"sheet theory\", patterns, 2yo foundations, spacing, and all that, and believe it or not I\'m very interested in learning more about it too. But the more \"biased\" and \"conformist\" this forum is about the solution to one particular problem, the more you should appreciate when someone else is offering a different lense to look at this problem from. At least don\'t go all in on chasing them away! It\'s not necessarily, but it very well could be, groupthinking ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink ) when \"the whole board\" are betting one horse, ascribing him a 25 % chance, and the horse goes off at 27-1. At least consider it. Be the devil\'s advocate if necessary, but not in an overly aggressive way. Better yet, be your own devil\'s advocate. Doub\'t for a little while. Go some extra steps. Explore. Challenge. Turn some stones. And first after all of this, should you go with YOUR gut. Otherwise you\'ll take the fun away.
That\'s my two cents on this, anyway, do with it whatever you want.
Just remember,
\"Leap of faith - yes, but only after reflection.\" - Soren Kierkegaard
Bob,
If that\'s your A game argument? You\'re getting old. Oh was that being a bully 😇
Oaks Day as mentioned previously the track was sealed only in the first 2 paths until before the feature when the entire track was sealed. Ditto for Derby day as you said and our information came from the same drunk....
Definite change in the flow for later races on Friday and I did not bet or watch last 2 on Saturday. You are an admitted non believer of track bias, you re certainly not alone. TGJB takes a lot of convincing before admitting their existence. No doubt they are haplessly over stated, exaggerated and prematurely labeled most of the time by the guys that handicap in between races.
I bet my money just like you do yours and my book for CD on 5/5, 5/6 has Golden Rail and 2 path both days. I will bet back with my money a few that ran against that grain and were compromised.
I could swear in a text we exchanged yesterday that you weren\'t even betting Churchill? Some Belmont pick 4 babble, thought you were BBB.....
Can\'t wait to argue with you live and in person in the back yard.
Your friend and non sensitive bully,
Frank D.
You are pretty astute. :)
No argument with the getting old!!
And Yes, I did not bet CD after the first few. Did play Oaks day with very small success in the end.
But I did watch them all.
I also read the charts to and even took notes. (Sean should be proud!)
As far as track bias.
They happen no doubt.
As you pointed out, they are most useful in betting back horses comprised by the bias.
On bias, I am like Fairmount....from Missouri....Show Me.
Pete -
Your post reminded me of the following post from long ago regarding what makes sheets players successful:
https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,20779,21052#msg-21052
Jimbo\'s attacks probably generated by his own understanding that his handicapping acumen is not among the top half of the posters here. I do not view it as personal. bbb
First, I was dead wrong on Always Dreaming and it cost me a $1 tri as I played tickets that included LAL in 2nd spot and BOM in the 3rd spot although the horses I keyed most prominently on top did not show up. I just wanted to own up to this on the board and compliment TAP for a job well done to have his horse ready to win the Derby. Kudos to all that said AD was a solid wager before the race.
A few notes on yesterday\'s track. I sat on the rail in the first turn nearly all day save the trips for some food, beer, betting, etc. It rained lightly all morning and I sat in it to save the tables our group wanted once the weather improved. The track was sealed during this time and throughout the day. At some point in the afternoon the sun began to emerge and I told my friends it may dry the outter paths first and the inside wouldn\'t be as prominent as it had been possibly. After a decent amount of time a tractor was brought out and the track was harrowed one tractor path at the rail. During this time that they started to harrow the track (open it up a better term?) it started to pour down rain for a solid 10 to 15 minutes I\'m guessing (no races run over the track as they just started to harrow it when it rained). After or during that rain, the track was sealed again and was not harrowed again. Timing is a little fuzzy so I\'m not certain how many times they sealed it after that rain. I can confirm they did not harrow it again unless it was after the Derby that I saw.
So the track was mess, a very tricky read once it was sunny and then rained again (from my persective handicapping the dirt races). One of my buddies that isn\'t quick to yell \"bias\" said he thought the rail was the place to be all weekend and was saying it early and often on Friday and through Saturday. Not sure any of this helps or matters now but just wanted to be clear on all these things.
Several really good stories from the weekend that I\'ll save for Travers weekend! I will note that as Asmussen walked by the rail after the Derby (heading back to the barn area) I asked if he was headed to the Belmont with LAL and he smiled and said \"Hell yeah!\" It will be interesting to see if he runs in the Preakness or not as I saw him already listed as a projected starter. So maybe he runs in Baltimore and Ny.
BBB-- What generated yours?
Got back on the Derby winner for the first time in many years, only problem was didn\'t cash a cent. Having got beat on Bodemeister there should have been some \"its ok now\" and there weren\'t.
One of my money horses was Sonneteer and understanding that races can collapse on slop what really irks me is that I factored a big run from Sonneteer on among other things, The Rebel, where he beat Looking at Lee. Well that\'s horse racing.
If it had been Sonneteer in second I couldn\'t even make this post. IF IF IF IF IF
If Only (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poz6W0znOfk)
Will get Sonneteer into the discussion later permitting.
He\'s back...
Unfortunately cannot say that after that race and once again he was a favorite.
Appreciate the chance to review the Figs. Very interesting year leading up. Noticed you selected Irish War Cry coming off the largest negative number. That\'s a change?
jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice thoughts.
>
> On Practical Joke, he ran his race. Maybe a little
> short on pedigree. Maybe just doesn\'t mind losing.
> Maybe a little of both.
>
> On McCraken, he was no lock to go either way. Not
> the fastest going in on a line that\'s become a
> sucker\'s line, an unblemished but too brief
> resume. Also a rough trip.
>
> As for the rail bias, I don\'t remember which race
> I\'d just watched, maybe the 8th or 10th, but it
> seemed to play pretty fairly to all paths. Maybe
> not but closers has some say in the outcome and
> not all races were won from rail.
Jerry bias and path will likely be a major topic here in the next couple weeks. Watching the post parade taking place at mid track couldn\'t help but notice how the hooves were being \"sucked\" as they lifted out of the ooze. Realized that closer to the rail that phenomena was less likely to exist due to moisture wicking that way. It certainly didn\'t look as deep nearer the rail. What happened in the 8th and 10th races with the sun drying the place may or may not be relevant by the 12th.
T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Got back on the Derby winner for the first time in
> many years, only problem was didn\'t cash a cent.
> Having got beat on Bodemeister there should have
> been some \"its ok now\" and there weren\'t.
>
> One of my money horses was Sonneteer and
> understanding that races can collapse on slop what
> really irks me is that I factored a big run from
> Sonneteer on among other things, The Rebel, where
> he beat Looking at Lee. Well that\'s horse racing.
>
> If it had been Sonneteer in second I couldn\'t even
> make this post. IF IF IF IF IF
>
> If Only
>
> Will get Sonneteer into the discussion later
> permitting.
Among Kent\'s worst rides ever . . . going some, I know . . .
>
>
> Among Kent\'s worst rides ever . . . going some, I
> know . . .
Topcat, Kent said that at no point in the race did he have a horse and that\'s what it looked like here. Isolated him on replays and he moved towards the rail and then ran wide coming around the final turn, lost ground from there. Don\'t think the wide or bias was the reason, just not enough horse. The good news unless he was hurting from the get go, he certainly didn\'t put out much energy that race.
Haven\'t seen him as a Preakness go yet but if he gets in and its not slop I\'ll go again. He had to improve to get up there, but he was on a pretty good forge pattern and to me my eye was really bred for it. Look at his final work especially in regard to his race fractions. I thought he was poised.
Understand JB, I was out of line and JIMBO I apologize.
The impetus behind my angst was instigated by another forum poster, a number of years ago, on another board. This poster castigated novices mercifully and caused many to discontinue their interest
The sport needs new players. Derby time attracts interest from newbies and they should be encouraged not repulsed. bbb
jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pace seemed quite honest for the first 6f. Last 4f
> were run in 52 and change. That type of come home
> time doesn\'t seem anywhere in the ballpark of AD\'s
> Florida Derby effort or figure. Just my humble
> opinion, but I would think a regression of a
> couple of points would seem more accurate.
>
> Patrick
Track Rating was Sloppy/Sealed for the 1st thru the 6th. At race 8 until the end rating changed to Wet-Fast/Sealed. It sure looks like the closing fractions from the 8th onward were less than stellar for all horses.
If my horse were running in the Derby I would have wanted him tactically placed and/or hugging the inner paths and to my eye most of the placing horses did precisely that. If you\'re looking for a run against bias to my eye its CE
Well, then, let me make an auspicious (or perhaps inauspicious) debut with this thought: Perhaps it would be a good idea for Jerry Brown not to refer to non-Kool-Aid posters as \"nuts.\"
The nuts reference had nothing to do with handicapping. They didn\'t show up, and I miss them. I think.
Hellersorr,
First off Kool-Aide is spelled this way here....
Second this board does not discriminate as to nuts, Kool-Aide, non partakers,
we have certifiables of all sorts.
It\'s a tough room to work and one who makes a post,states an opinion industry related or handicapping had better be prepared to defend their position. Does it get crazy, emotional, sarcastic and sometimes a bit personal at times?
It certainly does, you re dealing with some passionate people that are deeply entrenched in a game that defines non-exact science and yes there are many ways to the finish line.
I\'m even finding myself agreeing with BBB and that is the ultimate long shot!!!
The game and this board needs new faces and fresh opinions.
So welcome aboard, don\'t be shy, wear your tough skin at times and feel free to enlighten Jimbo anytime......
In the New York figure making world the Communists far outnumber the Buddhists ðŸŽ
Good Luck,
Frank D.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First off, congrats to Furious Pete and a few
> others that liked Always Dreaming. Personally,
> couldn\'t have been more wrong about the race.
> Hated Always Dreaming and loved Practical Joke and
> Irish War Cry. The latter was horrendous and the
> former was just OK (got a ride I could not have
> expected from post 19 - in a good way, and still
> was relatively empty).
Its so hard for me to correct my insights after a run on a surface like that. Rather, having a 3 run horse second and a 6 horse run third the inclination is to ask how did the surface allow them to place like that? Furthermore the number of Negative Number horses was winnowed down this year and some had reasons to not run their race and horses like Lookin at Lee looked to improve too.
>
> Despite Treadhead and Jerry apparently not
> noticing, the rail was iron for almost the two
> full days. And as is the case with iron rails,
> speed was really good as well.
By the 12th on Saturday it was the place to be.
>
> That said, hard to say how much that helped AD as
> he set a \"plus\" pace, put away a horse up front
> that wasn\'t any good (stately honor), then put
> away the fastest horse in the race (Irish War Cry)
> and was drawing away in the stretch. While speed
> and the rail were good, the visual on the derby
> wasn\'t one of a bias win. Bias aided wins look
> like Big World and Benner Island on Friday and
> CAviar Czar on Saturday. Where the front runner
> looks like they will be swallowed on the turn and
> through most of the stretch but they miraculously
> \"keep finding\".
>
> This horse was extremely good, bias or not. I,
> for one, am not salivating to bet against (or on)
> him in 2 weeks in the Preakness. Part of that is
> that exactly who ran well enough yesterday to give
> a mulligan to? Maybe Classic Empire, off a
> terrible trip? Not lookin at lee, who never left
> a gold rail (great ride).
>
> TGJB, as for the figure. there were 8 lengths
> between the winner and the third place finisher.
> I can\'t imagine this is going to be a slow figure.
> Or a backwards move as JP702006 suggests. What,
> every horse then X\'ed? Literally every one.
>
> How about another view. The Bluegrass being as
> fast as TG had it, meant a couple of key things.
> It meant McCracken was sitting on a nice forward
> move, perhaps the most likely horse to run well,
> it meant Practical Joke had a forward moving line
> with moderate steps and looked great as well.
> Well, make the Bluegrass two points slower, which
> is not out of line, all of a sudden McCracken and
> Practical Joke are both moving backwards, not
> forwards, Classic Empire still hasn\'t gotten to
> his 2 year old top and with Irish War Cry sitting
> on a possible bounce, all the \"fast horses\" maybe
> don\'t run. (which happened.)
Add to that a 12th race surface punishing certain running styles and rewarding others.
> Not sour grapes, just a thought.
Now the barn is calling him the second coming of Sliced Bread, but what about the Super Saver Derby? Always Dreaming certainly ran hard and with two weeks til the next on an advanced 3YO campaign could fall off if someone is there good enough.
> Jim
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Understand JB, I was out of line and JIMBO I
> apologize.
>
> The impetus behind my angst was instigated by
> another forum poster, a number of years ago, on
> another board. This poster castigated novices
> mercifully and caused many to discontinue their
> interest
>
> The sport needs new players. Derby time attracts
> interest from newbies and they should be
> encouraged not repulsed. bbb
Triple B:
Methinks you exaggerate a bit here to make your point.
Thoroughbred racing....whether you are up at dawn seven days a week on the
backstretch trying to scratch out a living or sitting in Living Room Downs
trying to cash a wager while not ruining your liver, is the toughest game
played outdoors.
The nature of parimutuel wagering is such that you can be sitting with a friend
in the grandstand. Your friend cashes large; you tap out. Tough. The racetrack
took 17% from both you and your friend in order to undertake this distribution
of wealth. Tough.
My point is that if the newbies can not take a bit of snarling from a Jimbo
like poster (Jimbo, by the way, is far less terrifying than Frank\'s aging,
incontinent Jack Russell terrier), they are probably not going to play the game
on a long term basis.
Those looking for kinder/gentler, and who have no sense of humor about
themselves (seriousness, a deadly sin), should probably try the Ragozin Board,
home of the Double Crown, where the community is dedicated to convincing Ken
Sherman that he is perfectly sane.
Even more kinder and gentler, it seems like NBC\'s TV coverage of the Derby was
aimed at a segment of the population I never realized was heavily into
pari-mutuel wagering. The highlight of the coverage for me was a brief
interview with Jeff Bridges.
(Movie quip: Jeff Bridges\' turn as the \"Dude\" nearly as impressive as George C.
Scott\'s General Patton. Sustained brilliance.)
So welcome to the pool newbies. You are swimming with whales and sharks. Good
luck. And just remember, as Furious Pete said, the whole purpose of a forum
such as this is a group effort at solving a puzzle. Right?
T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >
> >
> > Among Kent\'s worst rides ever . . . going some,
> I
> > know . . .
>
> Topcat, Kent said that at no point in the race did
> he have a horse and that\'s what it looked like
> here. Isolated him on replays and he moved
> towards the rail and then ran wide coming around
> the final turn, lost ground from there. Don\'t
> think the wide or bias was the reason, just not
> enough horse. The good news unless he was hurting
> from the get go, he certainly didn\'t put out much
> energy that race.
>
> Haven\'t seen him as a Preakness go yet but if he
> gets in and its not slop I\'ll go again. He had to
> improve to get up there, but he was on a pretty
> good forge pattern and to me my eye was really
> bred for it. Look at his final work especially in
> regard to his race fractions. I thought he was
> poised.
My beef was/is that going wide for any appreciable portion of those proceedings was willful suicide. He needed a trip, for sure, but Kent was too wide for too long for anything else to matter. Agree there figure to be better days ahead for him.
Fear not, aspiring horse gamblers, a shark in a cage is not as dangerous as it thinks.
As to the rail bias, on NBC\'s coverage immediately after Johnny V crossed the finish line and they could get camera\'s in his face Lanerie comes up beside him and could clearly be heard saying paraphrasing here, \"what I tell you about the rail being the place to, happy you listened to me now.\" As they were both laughing to each other in obvious joy.
They clearly were talking about the rail being hot and it was on camera less than a minute after the race. So if nothing else the Jockey\'s that rode the rail thought there was a bias big time, they were literally laughing about it.
To go along with that...Did anyone hear Casse before the race talking about needing to get Classic Empire to the rail? I sure did.
Yeah, it seemed that the people involved in the race were pulling no punches, the rail was the place to be for the 12th period. AD was a winner every step of the way regardless but the rail certainly helped all that hit the board.
Would agree that CE is the one who ran best against the bias and with another tough trip.
I was able to watch the replay of the NBC telecast and all they could talk about was the rail being golden.
boardedup Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As to the rail bias, on NBC\'s coverage immediately
> after Johnny V crossed the finish line and they
> could get camera\'s in his face Lanerie comes up
> beside him and could clearly be heard saying
> paraphrasing here, \"what I tell you about the rail
> being the place to, happy you listened to me
> now.\" As they were both laughing to each other in
> obvious joy.
>
> They clearly were talking about the rail being hot
> and it was on camera less than a minute after the
> race. So if nothing else the Jockey\'s that rode
> the rail thought there was a bias big time, they
> were literally laughing about it.
Corey: \"I guess that advice to stay on the rail paid off, huh? Hahaha.\"
After watching the replay several times I\'m surprised Lanerie had such a clear path open in lane one. Amazing as it seems, it could be that only two size 4 hats understood that running inside out of the second turn and down the stretch was a good idea.
The rest seemed to just fan out as if they expected to mount a late run only to lose ground and run in place for the most part. I consider it odd that most all avoided the inside coming home as if they thought it was not the place to be?
Obviously Classic Empire finished well but IWC finished suspiciously bad. He came a running off the turn and just hung then stopped. Even though I have seen no official report and don\'t expect too, his stop in the FOY and now again suggests to me that indeed this horse is fragile.
Making performance figures for this race boggles my mind. My view is some ran poorly because of the wet track. some ran poorly because of the added distance, some ran poorly because it was a fast pace, some ran poorly because they had run so well in their previous race. But which is which? As has been previously speculated they all go backwards except a few. Yet I\'m going to have to think twice before holding this race against any regardless how poorly they performed. For Example Thunder Snow! Ha.
Watch the replays of the Derbies Borel and Cordero won, three each.
Thunder Snow\'s performance rating may be \"8 seconds\" ;-)
I feel entitled to this joke as I was one of those who lost money trying to BUCK the Dubai Derby -> KY Derby trend. I\'ll see myself out...
I watched them all with interest. Twenty three horses in 1974. I\'m not sure when the overhead view came in but the 2010 video included it. Geesh, and everybody is curious about what your numbers are on Sunday.
The BOM purchase looking good so far.
Bee,
Please do not ever label me again as the owner of the worst dog ever...
Laura has owned the lovely cainine for 14 years well before me. She and her 12 yr old male gelded chihuahua who is always trying to hump her are the only 2 beings on earth that like her. I think Danny (chihuahua) just wants to tell the other boys he did the worst dog ever. Locker room talk Ala Donald Trump.....
I was shocked the rail was there for him to, being able to \"cut the corner.\" PJ was on the rail, Rosario swung him out, IWC like you said went wide and stopped, really it is beyond comprehension why some chose the wider trip?
Rosario did such a great job of getting PJ to the inside from the 19th post out of the gate, but then approaching the turn, while he still had access to the rail ahead of LAL, he opts for the overland route. Did he think the benefit of the inside was just an illusion?
Lanerie\'s ride on LAL was IDENTICAL to his ride on Cherry Wine last year in the Preakness. Similar result.
Complete head scratcher, no idea why he left the rail after positioning himself so well?
JB:
Do you think the inside was golden on Derby day?
I didn\'t really look, but it would be easy enough for someone to do a study using the figures we posted.
It looks very hard to establish an inside bias on the dirt both friday and saturday IMHO, just by going with the figures. Plenty of tops and pair ups from the wide paths both days. The best case for it being there could probably be made for the first three or four races on friday, but even that takes a bit of handicapping to get to. If so, one would have to have Elate running a huge new top (in effect), but that is completely plausible. If Street Bizz was running against a \"golden rail\", she too ran a race better than any of her previous - again it\'s plausible. And Dancing All Night ran a absolute huge race in her racing debut. My gut feeling is that this might\'ve been the case and that the rail was very good in those first three or four races on friday, but then it seems pretty fair from there, IF relying on the figures (and shouldn\'t we?).
All else equal the rail is obviously the place to be, it shouldn\'t surprise anyone on this board to see many winners saving ground. I saw someone mention Benner Island as the prime example of a horse winning because of an inside speed bias, but what do you say about Laney then?
That said, when you say that you haven\'t really looked TGJB, does this mean that if the evidence is not VERY heavy for or against a bias (i.e a dead rail or something like that) - you will weigh each horse in a race equally to get a race to fit? Would you care to elaborate a bit about your thinking around these issues? It sure isn\'t a problem that have an \"easy fix\"!
We don\'t make quantitative adjustments, i.e. add or subtract for path or \"bias\". We mark dead rails when there is substantial evidence that almost all horses that ran on it ran poorly relative to their figure histories.
Cheers and understood, a very predictable approach for us customers and that sure is worth something.
I thought that I had seen you write somewhere on here that you did remove the inside horses from your \"equation\" on those days with a dead rail, but then I guess I must\'ve misinterpreted that?
It sure is room for error there, and the potential to \"skew things up\" on weird days, but that risk exists anyway you go about this and I do believe your way is as sane a way as anyones way.
IMO, this just adds to the importance of \"voodoing\" a bit with the numbers when using them as a handicapper, to ensure that one really are making bets that reflects one\'s own opinion.
You don\'t use the horses that ran on a dead rail to make figures. That position and the one below are not in conflict.
Okay, thanks for clearing that up for me.
Speaking of identical rides, compare Rajiv Maragh\'s move out of the gate in the very wet 2011 Belmont to his move out of the gate in the very wet 2017 Kentucky Derby.
Interestingly, trainer Graham Motion\'s horse was sinned against in the former but committed the sin in the latter.
(Hmmm. Perhaps Motion felt it was better to have Maragh for \'im than agin \'im.)
\"The best case for it being there could probably be made for the first three or four races on friday, but even that takes a bit of handicapping to get to. If so, one would have to have Elate running a huge new top (in effect), but that is completely plausible. If Street Bizz was running against a \"golden rail\", she too ran a race better than any of her previous - again it\'s plausible. And Dancing All Night ran a absolute huge race in her racing debut. My gut feeling is that this might\'ve been the case and that the rail was very good in those first three or four races on friday, but then it seems pretty fair from there, IF relying on the figures (and shouldn\'t we?).\"
---------
How have the \"ran-against-a-golden-rail\" horses outside of those first 3 or 4 (dirt)races mentioned been running so far coming back, anyone following it up?
Elate just won very easily, suggesting she indeed ran a new top last time out and perhaps paired that up now (all though it won\'t read like that on the sheet). And Dancing All Night did run huge, came back a very good winner.