Outside looking in. Will need a heady ride. At least he\'ll have clear sailing into the first turn, albeit wide.
Not a good post for a horse that loses ground in 8 horse fields and has a jockey with no sense of ground loss.
That said, all the speed drawing in the first 7 or 8 posts (except IWC) would seem to increase the chances for a fast pace and spread out field which will lessen ground loss in general for the race.
McCracken at 5-1 ML. Yuck. Glad TGJB talked me out of 15-1 futures bet two weeks back.....
Jim
McC is about 10% to run a new top which he\'ll have to do to win. At 5-1, I just can\'t use him.
Frank might need to adjust that over/under #.
Wynn has him at 8-1.
McCracken is quite a bit more than 10% to run a new top.
Maybe double that?
But at 5-1, I don\'t disagree with your conclusion
Jim
What\'s your reason? My study shows of horses coming in with just 2 preps and a pattern of Top-Pair, only 3 out of 22 ran new tops. That\'s about 13%. Here\'s the data
Top-Pair
05
Sharp Humor X
07
Any Given Saturday P
Sam P. P
09
Dunkirk. X
Hold Me Back. X
10
Makemusicforme. T
Discreetly Mine. X
Awesome Act. X
11
Brilliant Speed. T
12
Gemologist. X
Trinniberg. X
13
Giant Finish. P
14
General A Rod. X
Tapiture. X
15
Firing Line. T
Carpe Diem. X
Bolo O
Far Right. O
16
Exaggerator. P
My Man Sam. O
Outwork. X
Whitmore. X
Starts. 22
Tops. 3
Pairs. 4
Offs. 3
X. 12
Agree greater then 10%. I also don\'t pay much attention to the morning line. 5-1 is just wrong. More likely 8-1 or 9-1
Jerry
He was a short horse in the bluegrass. Missed time and it showed. He will move forward Saturday
I see your stats. And they look right. But what do u have, 6 Pletcher horses on that list? I like thoro patterns and stats, but u also have to look at individual horses and trainers
Wilkes will have McCracken ready to run, will be sharper this time, training like a bear at a track he likes
All that said, the value isn\'t there for me if he goes off at 5-1. He might be fast Saturday but he has t been fast yet.
This race got suddenly ugly for me. Tough post for PJ.
I actually think 17 for IWC is ok, which is counterintuitive to a degree, but with motion wanting this horse to rate like in the wood, drawing well outside the inside speed with a long run to the turn could be ok.
Jim
As I recall, I\'ll Have Another won from that post with a similar style (running a 1, I think).
In order to make the morning line foot, you have to assume a takeout of 27%.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In order to make the morning line foot, you have
> to assume a takeout of 27%.
Are you saying that the ML is made incorrectly meaning it does not add up right? If that is what you mean and you are right, that strikes me as fairly scandalous
Edit: What\'s confusing to me is that the \"book\" adds up to 138 %, i.e if you\'re converting the projected M/L odds into percentages you get a total of 138 %. If you take away 27 % from those M/L\'s, you get about 189 %. That doesn\'t seem right. So it seems like the takeout is already factored in, as it should, and then some?
Do most morning lines add up? I don\'t know. I have had the impression that linemakers are generally conservative so as not to embarrass the owners of longshots (or their trainers). I think it would be more scandalous if the morning lines routinely advertised odds higher than bettors were likely to get. Look at the abuse Travis Stone took on this board during the Spa meet last summer.
Pete -
Note that 100 is roughly 73% (100 minus 27) of 138.
Nothing can be drawn from a 22 horse sample size. Nothing.
Yes, so maybe not \"...and then some\". But surely the takeout is factored in already?
http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222 A nice little read to confirm how it works.
Is Sportsbook still offering 20-1 on Cloud Computing?
In other matters, tough draw for the Godolphin horse who will be racing on Lasix. Interested to here TGJB\'s thoughts on that.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I believe in order to make a proper morning line, you add the take out of the win pool to 100% and then add the number of horses to that to get the base percentage. So starting at 100 and adding the 17.5% to account for the takeout at CD, then add 20 to account for the number of horses, 138% should be spot on.
FYI, in the bris PP\'s they list Thunder Snow as first time lasix.
His draw is a tragedy, much like Battaglia\'s morning line.
They should hire Fairmount - his was exceptional, especially the ordinal rankings from horse to horse.
I think Fairmount had a really solid M/L prediction. Battaglia must be drinking the McCracken KoolAid
Just be thankful he isn\'t calling races there. Truly one of the worst of all time.
I wish PJ wasn\'t all the way out there, but horses win from the auxiliary. He\'s a major player for me despite the post.
Always Dreaming hurt most by the draw; will be sent earlier than normal. IWC is fine, and PJ got the draw I wanted. McC will get overbet, and PJ will be a nice price!
Could be. Especially if it turns out he doesn\'t like running inside of other horses. If memory serves he did run (Canter) in some traffic during one of the GP ALW races.
Fair enough. I think it is safe to say though that the pattern of two 3yo. preps and paired tops can yield almost anything.
Agree;what does Johnny V do with a colt onthe inside that has been head strong all week?
I think PJ draw is bad, a colt who is distance challenged to the extent that trainer toyed with blinkers.
Now he is in post 19 for sure going wide yes his sheet sure is pretty.
IWC & CE benefited from the post.
Good Luck
I don\'t think the draw hurt his win chances, it looks like he could win this with a pairing of his last now. He doesn\'t exactly need to be Big Brown.. However, his chances for finishing way off have probably increased, too.
I think AD goes to the lead or at a minimum presses it. I saw a pace projection that had him in the third flight of horses? I absolutely don\'t see that happening at all. Thoughts?
I see forwardly placed for sure. Take pace numbers and throw them out the window for this ky derby. IMO the jock isn\'t going to have a lot of say in where AD is placed. They certainly don\'t want him inside behind the speed.
I agree. I think him and the 9 both have to,and will be on it from the start. Getting shuffled back or stuck behind horses would be a nightmare. I think they\'re both right behind the inside speed, or if one or the other breaks well depending the could find themselves on the lead.
I think CE will end up forwardly placed as well..
I must really be in the dark. I have absolutely zero concerns about ADs ability to rate.
We see him differently. You are assuming you will see the same horse race as the one who ran his last three in Florida. True, that horse rated. The horse i am evaluating now is training differently than he did in Florida and had to be put in draw reins. I see a different horse now, one that is too sharp, and i think with the inside draw he has to go a bit early. Johnny V won\'t be able to switch him off later IMHO. He\'s also never handled taking dirt. Would need to get extremely lucky to establish an outside stalking position out of the kickback breaking from where he is. I say he goes early.
I am going to be that guy. Any estimate on the seminar? Antsy. Sorry
7:00 pm pdt.
After the Mets game?
Nice. But my part\'s done, I\'m home watching while Paul puts it together.