I\'m taking a shot with Sonneteer at 50-1 plus. I don\'t think he can win, but he has had steady improvement on dirt this year and ran the fastest last 1/16 of any of the entries in his last race of 11 3/5 and I\'m hoping the extra distance and at least a little bit of pace may help. He\'s worth a shot to get in the tri or super at those odds. There wasn\'t a lot of pace in the Arkansas Derby and he still closed strong. Any thoughts?
Well you sure are right about his ability to win (as yet) hard to argue with leaving him out of the top spot.
Out of all the deep closers, I\'d prefer Gunny and LAL based on figs, but you won\'t be getting 50/1 on either. Can\'t knock someone for taking a shot, bombs away!
Tapwrit. Good line coming in with a competitive top 2 back and poor start in last. Willing to use at anything north of 20-1.
Sonneteer works in :47 flat bullet per Paulick report.
TAP seems confident (jumping out of his skin) AD will benefit from draw reins.
Works Link (https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/derby-notes-may-1-always-dreaming-learns-valuable-lessons-monday-training-hours/)
We should archive trainers\' pre Derby comments.
Sonnet had what looked by the clock to be a killer workout - 4F in :47 and galloped-out in under a minute. Really don\'t like the three weeks, but a good pick to blow things up.
I worry about State of Honor. I think he has no shot to win, and every race I\'m thinking, ok this is going to far. And all he has done has been in the tri for 6 straight races. Casse says they\'ve been pointing here all along (though, what\'s he supposed to say.) Has looked good in works. Can see leaving him off everything, him just holding on for the show, and me ripping up a lot of tickets.
Aj, pick a few horses that you like along with your \'key\' horse and then use the \'all\' button. If the horses that you really like run their race the all button can save the day on occasion for underneath.
Patrick
Yes compiled by TG edited by richiebee sure to be an interesting read. Dubious economics just like TAP.
Or simply don\'t play supers, or maybe even tris. There\'s no law.
Seems like now or never for a forward move and with 5 weeks he could do just that. State of honor, McCraken, Thunder Snow seem most likely to run a new top IMO.
Speaking of Thunder Snow, I\'m assuming he\'s 1st lasix but any confirmation?
Anybody have any idea how often horses from overseas run new tops in the US? I know this is a pretty broad question.
I know there is a lot of love for Thunder Snow and if I like Mccracken why not Thunder Snow? I find it hard to run a new top in the derby in the first place. This horse has 6 weeks between races, Flys across the world and gets put in quarantine for 48 hours and then has to run a mile and quarter race.... Seems unlikely to run a new top to me.
Oh yeah he has lower future odds in Vegas 18-1 then Hence 28-1
I\'ll need to go back again but, from what I remember, flat lines just don\'t yield too many new tops in this race.
hotspringskid Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m taking a shot with Sonneteer at 50-1 plus. I
> don\'t think he can win, but he has had steady
> improvement on dirt this year and ran the fastest
> last 1/16 of any of the entries in his last race
> of 11 3/5 and I\'m hoping the extra distance and at
> least a little bit of pace may help. He\'s worth a
> shot to get in the tri or super at those odds.
> There wasn\'t a lot of pace in the Arkansas Derby
> and he still closed strong. Any thoughts?
He will absolutely fill out the bottom parts of my tickets
I\'m willing to take a shot on j boys echo to get back to his top. I know he had the perfect setup in the Gotham but at least he capitalized on it... He\'s shown the ability to run a figure which is more than you can say about some of the other longer priced horses.
Bred to handle 10f and Romans has had some success getting pairs and even new tops in the derby (albeit with better looking sheets). If memory serves though, only medal count had a faster top coming in.
I have seen or read almost nothing in here about Battle of Midway. I think he runs a very big race in the derby. I will use him mostly underneath in all my verticals. Lightly raced son of Smart Strike was a Jan colt and should be mature enough to improve another couple notches. Second place in Santa Anita Derby with Flavien on board. Has tactical speed.
Leamas
He is easily one of the slowest horses in the race. That is why you don\'t see any posts about him.
Maybe a match up bet against Gormley, another \"no-shot\" horse (sorry Richie Bee).
The last few years California has been the key.
Not this year.
Caveat - a sea of slop would move Gormely off the \"no-shot in hell\" list.
Good luck,
Jim
Thanks for the good luck wishes, Jimbo. You are definitely an expert.
But this time I think you will eat crow. I think you will say regarding BOM after this race, as Yamamoto said after Pearl Harbor \"I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant.\" The Battle of Midway was a disaster for Japan
Leamas
Hey Jim:
Those who fancy Thunder Slow might be happy to know that Epicharis, who declined the
opportunity to take advantage of CD\'s \"sponsor exemption\" to run in the Derby,
apparently is Belmont Stakes bound.
You can not talk me off Gormely. He will be my key no matter what the track
condition. Furthermore, I will not view the seminar until Friday night, but with all
due respect to The Guru Jerry Brown (TGJB), there is nothing I will see or hear
therein that will cause me to change my opinion regarding Gormely\'s chances.
Call me stubborn...
Stick to your guns Richie!
I don\'t want to jinx you Richiebee, but think Gormely is one of the most likely to hit the tri.
I\'m like \"Dude, you can\'t indict the whole West Coast racing establishment by dissing the SADerby!\"
Leamas57
Leamas,
This is the TG board. Battle of Midway is the 18th fastest horse in the race. What is the case for him to win? Or hit the board?
Richie Bee,
I don\'t want talk you off the horse. The more I criticize your pick, the better off you are. Count on that! :) But the same thing I said to Leamas holds true for Gormley. One DECENT slop figure, for a trainer who doesn\'t ship well, with a horse coming out of a very slow prep, with a perfect trip, is tough to see.
Anything can happen in the Derby. Hey Giacomo won.
But this seems like the year the West Coast horses just aren\'t any good.
Good luck,
Jim
Jim:
Its not only that I like Gormely, its also that no one else really excites me.
Gunnevera has a very good 2YO foundation, starting early in his 2YO year and
showing moxie by shipping to win stakes at the Spa and at Delta. He would be my
second choice but who knows if track will favor his running style.
Cal dominance of 3YO races may not be as pronounced as in recent years, when Cal
based maidens were a factor in East Coast graded stakes, but hey, you have IRAP\'s
win in the Blue Grass and Soneteer\'s (suck up) second in the Rebel.
And reviewing the case for Gormley, he has won four of six lifetime, with the two
defeats coming to CE and Mastery. Two of the wins were G1. I see him tactically
placed and do not think distance will be a problem. Under a multiple Derby winning
jock. Looking for odds at 15/1 or so.
Win, place, single in the P4 which begins with the Woodford Reserve, hefty double
with Mandella\'s Bal a Bali in the Woodford. (Note I have not seen sheets for
Woodford or viewed Seminar).
Jim, what credence if any do you give to a horse\'s ability to get 10 panels? True Gormley has ran slow fig\'s wise a few times, but he\'s also a multiple grade 1 winner with as good of a pedigree to get 1 1/4 as almost anyone in the race.
I\'ve looked back over my own personal selections for this race over the past decade, and it seems like when I dropped the ball it was when I landed on a fast horse with distance limitations. (obviously that wasn\'t cut and dry before the race)
My point is, since this is further than any of them have gone before (and most will ever go) isn\'t it logical to give a good look at the one\'s who are most likely to get the distance first? And maybe you have and still decided to toss this one, but that\'s what I\'d like to know, ultimately how much weight do you give to \"getting the distance\" in your handicapping of this race?
BTW this is a serious question, I\'m not trying to talk trash or whatever because you indicated you were leaning toward PJ, at least before the draw.
Jimbo:
Pardon me if when no one was looking I dumped my Kool-Aid into the fern. You remind me â€" you and the rest of the high priest adherents-- of the people at the Federal Reserve who have legions of PhDs using \"data\" to tell them that everything in the economy is fine just before the global financial system implodes.
I respect the methodology, but see a faster race and figure and see a very well-bred colt who carried close to the weight, with tactical speed, a great jock, and in a phase of his career where he could move forward big.
Everybody here talks about patterns, but I have bet a lot of races in 20 or 30 years and I\'ve seen this pattern result in a big race many times. I only used two horses in the Florida Derby and one of them was Always Dreaming. I don\'t even remember if I hit the pick four not, but I thought he would move up.
OK, now you can drag me through through streets of the \"sheets\" for heresy.
Leamas
Boardedup,
I am not saying I am right, but I give no credence to the breeding and whether it suggests the horse can go 1 1/4 miles.
I used to care about that.
But then you had War Emblem, sired by Our Emblem who \"couldn\'t get the distance\".
Funny Cide, sired by speed influence Distorted Humor, another miler type.
Smarty Jones, sired by miler Elusive Quality.
Back to back to back years.
A guy who no longer posts on the board told me if they can run their best (top), at 1 1/8 in the last round of preps, then that is good enough. Now, when a horse that I think might have distance limitations runs poorly in the 1 1/8 mile prep, then I care.
Like I said, not saying I am right, but that is how I handicap it. Lots of winners who people said beforehand weren\'t bred for 1 1/4 miles, then after the race, the revisionist history breeding experts point to the 3rd generation female tail and find some stamina. For me, poppycock.
PJ ran his top at 1 1/8. Good enough for me. Especially at 20-1. Rosario, post 19. Not so much. But the price compensates.
Jim
Leamas,
If using speed figures, analyzing trip, pace and bias on top of that, along with trainer tendencies, makes me a \"Kool Aid\" drinker, then so be it.
Count me in the Kool Aid category rather than the \"I have a funny feeling that this horse who has flatlined for his last 5 races, is suddenly going to move forward 12 lengths\" category. I don\'t want to be in that category.
As for 20 or 30 years of watching and betting on races, that is hardly impressive. Not sure if you noticed, but in this game we all like, the median age is about 68. It doesn\'t attract young people. We have all been betting for years. The track/OTB is about the only place I feel young anymore...
Good luck
Jim
Jimbo-- if you think you\'ve been going to an OTB recently the age thing might be more of a problem than you thought.
TGJB,
I know you New Yorkers tend to think the world is comprised of the 5 boroughs, but us dull-witted New Jersey guys still have OTBs. (or whatever we call them)
Favorites in Woodbridge, NJ has a median age of 73 for the patrons. My old man is \"young\" there.
Richie Bee has been threatening to come there once. I am hoping he uses some of the money he makes off of Gormley to buy a bus ticket to NJ to visit FAvorites in Woodbridge...
Jim
Good stuff, thanks for answering. I\'m as far away from a pedigree expert as you can get, for this race and the Belmont I do tend to pay attention to it though where as the rest the year not so much.
Post may be a blessing. He\'ll have a perfect view of the demolition derby going on inside of him into the first turn.