Sorry folks, I can\'t seem to let this go. But I promise this is my last post on the topic. I got out my calculator and things are worse than I thought regarding SJ\'s quarter fractions:
1. 24.50
2. 24.30
3. 22.90 (!) (of course he is cooked now)
4. 23.70
5. 25.10
6. 27.20
I am skeptical of the notion that Elliot would have had to strangle his horse to stay behind Purge and RHT until the quarter pole. SJ rated the first half and has always rated kindly before. Even so, Elliot should have checked SJ if he had to to stop that suicidal midrace \"surge.\"
I\'ll go to my grave believing that SJ was robbed of the triple crown my professional incompetance. Servis should not have given a junk rider the mount even on a great horse in a high-pressure, big-money spot. But of course, the owner could have moved this horse to a real barn at any time.
How can anyone possibly argue with how this horse was managed??!! Servis did an awesome job keeping this horse from falling apart; take Birdstone out of the equation (he had no pace influence) and he STILL WINS BY 8!! and Stu is a genius!
Yeah, give him to Lukas...oh, he would have been 2yo champ, and would never see the light of day at 3! Frankel? His \"magic\" probably would kill him. Baffert? Pletcher? Who??
I think Elliot\'s ride is the biggest single reason the horse lost. That being said, I do not think its fair to say that Jerry Baily would have won if he was riding him or any other big name jockey. How about Kent Desormeaux on Real Quiet?
I agree with the premise of your post, but I think the fractions overstate the reality. There was a wind with them in the backstretch. I also think the horse had something to do with the ride. The horse was also anxious to go.
I think Servis learned a very painful lesson. I was concerned about the 12 marks. I just thought they\'d have a much better game plan is all. The internal fractions tell the story of the race. Smarty is not Secretariat but he\'s closer than some think.
There was only one move you can really question the entire race, in my mind. When Eddington ranged up outside of Smarty past the 1/4 mile mark, Elliot had a choice to make, let him go and sit 4th, or move ahead of him and take the lead. He felt he was tons the best and decided he didn\'t want to risk sitting 4th, with the best horse. He moved to the lead, after that he was committed and had no choice but to put Eddington away, which he did. Then RHT immediately ranged up inside him, he had to put him away. Then he had nothing left for Birdstone. In hindsight, he should have let Eddington go and sat 4th, relaxing the horse for 1/4 or so. He could have taken over from the front three at any time. However, I honestly believe that 9 of 10 jockeys make the same move as Elliott did, when they think they have the best horse. The exception would be a guy like Pat Day, who always rides conservatively, which in this case would have worked, but he is often criticized for being too conservative.