The story of this year\'s Belmont will forever be to me how the bluebloods of the New York racing world refused to let an upstart from Philadelphia Park win the triple crown on their home court.
Servis knew what was coming. He was taped last week talking about how he expected some \"strange instructions\" to be given to some of the other riders. And I guess in my naivity I thought he was saying that he was expecting to have to overcome some rough riding by his competitors.
But you don\'t have to look any further than the race Purge ran to uncover some \"strange\" riding instructions. As far as I can tell the only thing Purge was in that race for was to \"pressure\" Smarty Jones.
On paper Purge had the ability to be the pace setter. And I think it was the potential of Purge\'s early speed that forced Elliot to race for position early.
But Purge chose not to grab the lead and thereby string the horses out. He chose to take up a position that forced a \"pocket\" of pressure around Smarty, from which, as has been pointed out by others, Smarty never got a breather.
And so Smarty turned for home. And for a brief moment the question was how many lengths is he going to win by? (And maybe it wasn\'t a lack of nerve which prompted Elliot\'s early move, but a media induced conviction that he was obligated to chase the ghost of Secretariat.) But here comes Birdstone, rested and trained by Zito over the deep Oklahoma Training Track, as has been pointed out by a previous astute poster, to run the exact type of off the pace race he ran.
And at that point there was not much Elliot was going to do. Chavez might have whipped the horse home, Pincay might picked up his head and carried him over the wire, Shoe or Julie might have sweet talked him to victory with their hands, but Elliot is Elliot. He\'s a pretty good rider on the Pennsylvania circuit who, looking into the glare of the headlights, did the best he could and the horse came in second.
That\'s horse racing. And that\'s the Triple Crown. Again, this ain\'t no Mud Club, this ain\'t no disco, this ain\'t no fooling around.
This was the Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown on the line. And I think Servis was absolutely correct to presume the heavy weights in the racing/breeding industry were going to do everything they could to insure that their most cherised prize was not going to go to an upstart Pennsylvania bred from Philadelphia Park.
But there\'s always next year.
Post Edited (06-07-04 20:14)
I love conspiracy theories, but this is crap! The best horse won, and if you run this race a hundred times it would come out the same. The distance took it\'s toll, and his pedigree FINALLY caught up with him.
Total nonsense.
They were working on getting Purge to rate in the Peter Pan. Bailey was on the radio Friday saying he was going to go early. Jason Orman was saying he would tell Solis to lay close and \"not let him get away from us.\" There was no deception or \"strange\" instructions. Everyone did exactly what they said they were going to do ahead of time.
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM dictates that Belmont winners are horses that stay close to the pace. I read it in at least TEN articles leading up to the race.
Finally, no one put a gun to Elliot\'s head and told him to take the lead. If Purge wasn\'t going to be on the lead, Smarty looked like the most likely candidate to set the pace and that\'s what he did.
Maybe the bluebloods should have just let Smarty win. Like they did with Secretariat.
HP
I don\'t buy the conspiracy theory. I will say that Bailey/Hennig had a brilliant stategy,go after SJ early with a common horse and still win, yeah right!!. You will never see Bailey sitting in perfect position and move that early in that long a race.His sole pupose was to force SJ early and get him beat,IMHO.
By coincidence this article appeared under Ray Kerrison\'s byline in the New York Post this morning (which I read after posting my piece)
Jocks \"sacrificed\"
Smarty Jones\'trainer John Servis charged yesterday that jockeys riding in the Belmont Stakes \"sacrificed\" their own horses to get the public idol beatean and deny him the Triple Crown.
\"He cited two jockeys in particular-Jerry Bailey on Eddington and Alex Solis on Rock Hard Ten-for aggressive tactics that led to Smarty\'s downfall.
The biggest thing in Smarty Jones\' defeaat is that he did not settle,\" said Servis. \"He could not get a breather. Bailey pushed Eddington right up along-side him. Then, as soon as Smarty put him away, Solis on Rock Hard Ten came had us.
Those guys had nothing to lose so they sacrificed their horses to push Smarty along. I\'m sure that Bailey and Solis would have been much happier, sitting off the pace, stalking but when you don\'t have anything to lose, you pull out all the stops.
I don\'t know how there horses came out of it, but ours came out pretty good. But, unfortunately, it cost us the race.\"
Sour grapes? Not a bit. Servis was explaining what happened rather than protesting.
\"That\'s horse racing,\" he shrugged. I think Stew Elliott was upset at what the other jockeys did because he knew they were sacrificing their horses, but that\'s what makes the Triple Crown so tough.\"
This article was the first really classless thing that Servis has done during this run. To insinuate that Bailey and Solis \"sacrificed\" their horses to stop Smarty is the most ridiculous thing I have heard in years. Both thought they had horses that could run 1 1/2 miles and had horses that needed aggressive rides. Both riders said before the Belmont that they would be part of the early pace and their workouts showed that the trainers were sharpening their horses speed. They both made moves that had their horses been good enough, could have been winning moves. Smarty put them both away, so they got beat. No \"sacrifices\". Just horse racing.
The next time you see Jerry Bailey put his horse under a ride after a half mile in a distance race will be the second time.The first was the Belmont.
I couldn\'t agree with you more Jimbo. A classless statement by Servis, if he in fact stated it that way. It is absurd to suggest Bailey and Solis would give up their chance at victory and the money that goes with it.
This article appeared in the Post. A few years ago they ran some quotes from Baffert attacking me for some comments I made in my DRF article saying Silver Charm was only 25% to win the Belmont, and when I talked to him a few months later he told me they were some off the cuff comments not intended to be nearly as hot as they sounded-- we became pretty friendly. Last week, the Post \"quoted\" me as well, and juiced up my comments to make them more sexy. I\'m pretty friendly with Kerrison (I named a horse after him, he wrote a pretty funny column when he found out it was a gelding), and he has treated me well in his Triple Crown pieces over the years. But no heat, no story-- my guess is that Servis was not accusing anyone of anything, just saying the pressure cost SJ the race.
>Chavez might have whipped the horse home
The animal rights lovers watching on TV would have had a field day with that one.
There were 100 Million or more interested observers Globally on this race. You would have needed a jackhammmer to drive a nail up Stu\'s you-know-what when those gates opened. All things considered his ride was pretty good.....for a mile and a quarter.
TGJB,
Tell Bob that one hour a day work ethic he was bragging about two years ago is really clicking now.
I have no problem with Servis\' comments. A lot of people feel the same way. RHT and Eddington are not front running horses. If training them to race closer to the pace was such a great idea, why were they plodding along 10+ lengths behind SJ at the wire?? This was the same tactic employed when Cigar got beat at Del Mar. Mandella ambushed Cigar with 2 horses. One of them finished up the track after pressuring him from the outside, Dare and Go (Solis) picked up the pieces for the win. Cigar was valiant in defeat that day just as SJ was on Saturday. Bailey and Solis knew they had no chance to beat SJ no matter what strategy they used. Their only satisfaction was denying SJ the TC. To me the real jerk was Bailey. He had no business prompting the pace. But thats horse racing.
If I had to guess (and I don\'t), the other jocks who thought they had a chance going in thought they had no chance if SJ was allowed to gallop along. Keep in mind the half was 48 3/5, and he was the one who was supposed to be tired and likely to crack under pressure. When he moved after the half they probably felt they had no choice but to move with him. Also keep in mind that the last quarter was into a pretty good wind-- given that it was a little slow (which was to be expected given the fast 1 1/4), but nothing crazy. I don\'t think the other jocks were trying to do anything other than win-- if they didn\'t, SJ winning would have been good for the game, and for them (at least that was the prevailing opinion).
The big question is, what the hell was Bailey doing OUTSIDE SJ around the first turn. He is now riding everything like he\'s on a 3/5 shot, unless he\'s trapped inside like he was in the F&M turf race.
I agree with JB on his issue.
The other connections probably thought if they pressured SJ he might falter first and if they didn\'t they could never catch him.
As is often the case when horses of similar overall ability hook up, the one with more \"brilliance\" puts away the others because the main speed horse is racing somewhat within himself and the others are being used much harder to keep up. Smarty is a better and more brilliant horse. He killed them but they took some starch out of him too.
Post Edited (06-07-04 15:01)
I think people are underestimating what a great race Smarty ran on Saturday. He has proven to be a special animal and it took a special set of circumstances in a one and one-half mile race to get him beat by one length. Birdstone had a terrible pattern but did have back class and some excuses. He jumped up big while having the race set up perfectly. I don\'t think you can fault Elliot, Servis, Bailey or Solis. Purge clearly did not want the lead. He was not going to let Smarty sit chilly on his flank and go by him when he wanted. At the same time you can\'t fault Bailey and Solis for trying to stay close with a horse who has this much natural speed and can also rate. It was a lose-lose situation for any horse who possesed some natural speed. Use it or be six lenghts behind on the far turn. Birdstone had no choice but to run the race he did. His lack of speed helped him in this instance but 99 out of 100 time Smarty would not have come back to him. No conspiracy, just the way things played out.
Regarding conspiracy theories, imagine these possible scenarios:
A insider at Visa offers Elliot $1,000,000 to lose the race. That\'s $440,000 more than he would make by winning the race and Visa saves $4 million.
There\'s a reason no horse based outside of NY has ever won the triple crown. NY has an ego about the triple crown as big as Kentucky has about the Derby. Maybe they paid off the jocks to kill off any non-NY based horse from winning the TC.
It could happen.
You\'re nuts. That horse was hounded like reporters on Howard Dean. Since when does Rock Hard Ten press the pace. Ask those who bet him to 7-1 how they feel about Solis\' ride. And then Bailey takes his turn in this version of tag team horse racing. Maybe their strategy was to insure that the best horse didn\'t win thereby rendering it a wide open race. It was bombs away from the beginning for any of them who could keep pace with Smarty for as long as they lasted. Nope. They weren\'t going to give it away even if it meant sacrificing their own animals. Birdstone was the beneficiary of a mugging that took place a half a mile away. You think Birdstone\'s the better horse? Bet the bank on him next time they meet. Please.
If you think that was a vintage Jerry Bailey ride you need to watch more races. You won\'t see Bailey ride a fool ride like that in another hundred years. Running up into a sub 1:36 mile pace. That\'s Secretariat time. Do you really think he is that poor a judge of pace? Servis is dead on right. They screwed him and his horse. And he only got beat a length. That\'s why Bobby Frankel said afterwards Birdstone will never beat Smarty again.
bailey didn\'t want to win the race, only wanted to screw smarty... AND ... visa paid elliot to throw the race, ON THE SAME THREAD !!!! ..... wow!
Fine then. You tell me what Bailey was doing running Eddington up into a sub 1:36 mile pace in a mile and a half race? What was he going to do next? A sustained sprint for the last half mile? Bailey\'s a better rider than that. Servis said they had a bullseye on their back and Bailey and Solis took dead aim. You\'ll never see Bailey ride a race like that again. Running up into a legitimate pace on the backstretch. Total sacrifice. And if you don\'t believe it just look at the results. Plodders finished 1st and 3rd. Kamikazes 4th, 5th and last.
Just before the actual race, in an interview, Elliott said that he didn\'t think that his unfamiliarity with Belmont would make much difference. After all, he said, he had ridden about sixteen races there.
Sixteen races. Wow.
When your entire career is spent making moves at the half mile pole on 8 furlong tracks, you can be forgiven, I suppose, for not realizing that the half mile pole at Belmont is not in the same place.
Elliott tried to make a six furlong brush with SJ, which was a quarter mile too long. Prado revved up around the real half mile pole and just got the job done.
Experience won...inexperience cost SJ the race...the guy who said that Birdstone is unlikely to ever beat SJ again was right...as insurance Servis had better get the horse a jockey for the course...wherever it is.
I agree with your assessment of Stu\'s ride. He let it out a notch along the backside and he should have sat chilly for another 1/4 mile. Let those goofs go on. He would have passed them around the turn. He just asked his horse for one too many moves.
What amazes me is that there isn\'t more of an outcry from the Rock Hard Ten contingent. Do they really accept that Birdstone is a better horse than Rock Hard Ten at any distance?
I don\'t really get all the cynicism in trying to evaluate the race. SJ was running along in about the same position in the Belmont as he did in the Arkansas Derby, The K. Derby and the Preakness. The half times of those races were 46:4,46:3, and 47:1. In Jan. on the inner track, he was in the same position in a 47 flat half. Now he\'s running on a track that\'s at least a second faster than normal and he\'s loping along on a 48:3 half, irregardless of the fact that it\'s a mile and a half race, why doesn\'t anyone believe Elliot when he said the horse was pulling him along? Of course the horse couldn\'t settle. If you want to fault the rider maybe he should have gone a 47:2 half on that track to get the horse to relax. Maybe then he would have won because Birdstone would have been too far back or going to fast to keep up to have the late kick he did.
In addition, if we say that Bailey is one of the 3 or 4 best riders of all time and a fairly decent judge of pace. What did you expect him to do off a 48:3 half on a track on which a filly broke the 6 1/2 furlong record earlier in the day? Should he have just waited to outsprint SJ to the wire after what he had seen the last two times he raced against him? He wasn\'t on a very good horse but the idea that Jerry Bailey would sacrifice his chance to win a million dollar race just to cause another horse to lose is preposterous. Anyone who seriously thinks that should take up golf and stop playing the horses. Why would he do that? Do you think MaryLou and Penny did a duet on him?
As it turned out I thought SJ ran a great race but lost to a very good horse running the best race of his life, a la Monarchos in the derby a couple of years ago. and that\'s what makes horse racing. I think if Smarty stays sound he will dominate the fall racing.
Speaking of Sacrifices, didn\'t Smarty Jones sacrifice himself trying to go box to wire at a record setting pace. Impressive times up to the last 27 seconds. Found a way to lose - just like me LOL didn\'t bet my 4, 6, 8, 9 superfecta box in one of my earlier emails.
Got 4 straight on my pick 6 seems I faded a bit too wound up not even getting the consolation prize for picking 5 out of 6! $47,000 plus $11,000 only 24 bucks away from my back pocket.
Welcome to the club SMARTY JONES!!! Waiting on that chestnut colt and next year.
Post Edited (06-07-04 23:36)
Nick Zito and Mary Lou Whitney.
A winning combination.
Are you kidding me?
Both of them should be gagged and prohibited from public speaking.
Neither is representative of New York.
To think so is to believe in the idea of the elite.
The spirit of New York; more than any other city in the World; is based on feeedom and opportunity.
Long live Smarty Jones and all who chase their dreams.
Cozzene
Mary Lou is harmless. As far as Zito is concerned I think overall he is good for racing. He has a good relationship with the media. He has a personality without being percieved as \"slick\"(see, baffert and lukas) I think he he is a guy that you can root for. Do you think Frankel is more representative of New York? Gimme a break.
MO---
Stop watching SOPRANO re-runs.
Ever consider this. Perhaps SJ is not the great horse we wanted him to be. Start going over the list of horses SJ has beat....LION HEART< LIMEHOUSE
SKIP AWAY ran a more demanding race,pace wise, and was barely nipped on the wire. Sonny Hine said nothing afterwards because he was a class act.
Good Luck,
joe B.
Since you are posting on this website I am going to assume you are familiar with their product. Of the other great horses you have mentioned, which of them had run anything close to the numbers Smarty Jones has run at this point in their careers?
This site isn\'t about who you beat or even who beats you. It\'s about how fast you run. I can recall a few who have run faster than Smarty but none who have run this fast up to and through the TC series. I will speculate he will ultimately be regarded as the greatest horse not to win the TC since Northern Dancer.
Post Edited (06-08-04 12:37)
JR--
The nice thing about this site is that horseplayers are free to speak their opinions on all facets of the game.
I certainly understand what the product is. I also understand that final numbers, regardless of who produces them, are not the end all in thoroughbred handicapping. They are a valuable tool, but only one of many.
There is also a thing called class and it\'s the reason a horse like GYGISTAR can run a negative # in the Grade 3 Westchester Mile and then a plus 2 in the Grade 1 Met Mile when the pace is more demanding.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Just for the record, Gigystar paired his top in the Met, pace and class notwithstanding. The first 6 horses ran negative numbers-- Beyer blew it, presumably because he\'s not on top of what is going on with the changing run-ups, which was very short for that race. I wonder whether Ragozin is on top of this-- in effect, your speed chart becomes variable. Those guys don\'t handle change very well...
Joe B,
I don\'t get HBO.
MO
MO--
Good decision. Besides \"the sopranos\",the network stinks.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
JBELFIOR
>I also understand that final numbers, regardless of who produces them, are not the end all in thoroughbred handicapping. They are a valuable tool, but only one of many. <
I am sometimes amazed that many otherwise terrific handicappers don\'t fully appreciate that a horse\'s speed figures can vary depending on the level of competition the horse is running against.
Whether it be pace, the brilliance and acceleration required to get and maintain winning position, the duration and extent of pressure, etc.... it couldn\'t be clearer to me.
You\'ve obviously never watched \"Six Feet Under\" or \"Carnivale\"...
Mr Belfior
As a shareholder of Time Warner, HBO is the greatest invention since Horse Racing.
Thanks
Cozzene