I just watched the Arkansas Derby a few times, and noticed that a few jumps before the wire, Classic Empire switched back to his \'wrong\' lead.
Anyone make anything of that?
FWIW, it does not appear to me he did so in either the Holy Bull or the BC Juvenile.
I didn\'t notice that but what I did notice, and like, was his ability to adapt to a race scenario that was somewhat troubled.
I noticed it too. That was a big effort for him coming back off his issues. Will he go forward with 3 weeks rest? I wouldn\'t let the late lead change turn you off of him.
I\'ve heard or read some speculation that he may have been responding to the swerving that Malagacy and Conquest Mo Money were doing.
Per Mike Welsch, :24.02, :49.21, 1:02.03 and 1:16.87 in company this morning.
Yikes at that gallop out.
Standard operating procedure with a Casse. You were hoping to see 59 and change?
5f fine is time...I\'m more concerned with after the finish. Nearly 15 second gallop out? Did they strangle him after the line?
Edit: I\'m reading now that it was a 4f move.. Not terrible I guess.
They say it was only intended to be a 4F work, 1:02 in 4 1/2 - http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221254/classic-empire-a-pro-in-four-furlong-move
Yea, I just read that it was 4f.. Welsch initially tweeted:
Mike Welsch @DRFWelsch 2h2 hours ago
Classic Empire 5F 102.03 out 116.87 in company
Disregard.
I agree not a strong gallop out, but Casse usually doesn\'t let them gallop out in final work before a race. My guy got him from the short pole and got his last 1/4 in 24 flat with a gallop out in 13 and change. Nothing real noteworthy one way or the other with this work.
I have to go back to my earlier post about this colt. Knowing how CE has melted down in the pre-race before in front of lessor crowds, what do you do with him here? Lets say you like him, you going to bet your money on him in the horizontals without seeing him live on the track before the race? If you\'ve got a complicated vertical bet, are going to have enough time to see him live on the track and get your bet in before the gates open?
I have a lot of respect for my money and would find it very difficult to lay a dime for or against this colt without seeing him in the saddling area and the post parade.
As the probable favorite, it matters and presents quite the conundrum.
Game is never easy...
I am curious how people can assess workout times (all the talk about Classic Empire\'s time in this thread) without knowing things like the weight of the exercise rider, runup, the path on the turn, wind, track speed.......shouldnt those factors affect workout times? I recall that Larry Jones used to work out his own horses and he weighs at least 200 lbs I think. An exerise rider might weigh 120.....have to think 80 lbs differential can affect the times...it just seems that with workouts, you need to go visually with how the horse looks and you cannot really make too much about time unless you have a lot more context that goes with the time.....or am I off in right field?
IMO you make some good points SoCalMan. For me, one of the biggest things about workouts is knowing that horses and trainers are individuals. They don\'t all do it the same. So to properly evaluate a work you have to know what does the trainer typically do with his stock, and what does that horse typically do in the morning.
Take a horse like Always Dreaming. Pletcher will let his horses run a bit in the morning and likes the rider to encourage or at least let his horses have a strong gallop out. Always Dreaming has been a very good work horse down in Florida. So if he would have shown up here and worked poorly this AM that would maybe mean something.
Contrast that with a horse like J Boy who is pretty lazy in the morning. If he were to have a relatively unnoteworthy final work that probably doesn\'t mean much. On the other hand, if he were to suddenly show up in the morning and have a very fast final work doing it all on his own then that probably does mean something.
For CE, I guess the first thing to note is he worked when asked (he has refused to work before in the AM). So that\'s a good thing for starters. Casse usually doesn\'t let them do much the final work before the race, so I wasn\'t expecting this colt to wow anyone in his final work or his gallop out.
The other thing that no one really talks about is how these horses come out of their work is probably more important than the work itself. So it really helps to know how they were galloping and acting in the morning before a work to see if anything changes afterwards.
Kentucky Derby is one of the best times of the year to learn about works if you don\'t have a private clocker. It\'s one of the only times where the horses are under so much scrutiny that you can get a lot of information about how they are acting/feeling/doing in the mornings. Hell, now days you can even watch them live on a cam while drinking your coffee in the morning.
I thought Always Dreaming looked as good if not better than he did in Florida. Went :59 and change, was never asked, big gallop out.
State of Honor looked strong too, comfortable, ears up, went :48 and change.
My guy got AD first 1/4 in 24.33, last 1/4 in 23.9, 5F work time 59.8 with another 1/8th shading 13 on the gallop out. Looks good on the watch. He said AD was fighting the jock early though to be let loose to run, which is not ideal.
He did exactly that in Florida also. part of his routine?
My guy saw him in Florida twice and said that he wasn\'t rank at all in the morning down there. There will probably be video up of his work at CD later today. For reference, here\'s a video of his last work down in Florida before he shipped. Compare the two. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_2S0AmxN04&feature=youtu.be
If you ask me, the horse hasn\'t settled in to his new surroundings yet and is a little agitated.
That\'s true, he was a little rank at first. Looked eager to go.
I believe we\'re referring to different workouts. I was thinking of the two before the Florida Derby.
I watched them repeatedly and I\'ll see if I can find a link.
Early opinion this is the horse that takes of when the gates open.
and goes :22/:45/1:09, pace melts, and chaos ensues. Wishful thinking?
No way Johhny doesn\'t send him at this point a la Bode. Hard to ignore that work despite the agitation. I was against but his raw athleticism has me thinking....
Not saying Johnny sends him but if this horse continues this what is he going to do in front of 150,000??
Fight him or let him run?
See what happens the next seven days and the draw.
Good luck
The couple of March AD w/o\'s unlike those after the FL Derby
3/25 4F (http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/always-dreaming-inside-worked-4-furlongs-in-48-40-at-palm-beach-downs-on-march-25th-2017/)
PBD 3/18 4F (http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/always-dreaming-worked-4-furlongs-outside-of-theory-in-48-00-at-palm-beach-downs-on-march-18th-2017/)
Nice find. Nearly the same demeanor as his work this morning.
Horse is a worker and my guess is the transport over got him a little keyed up missing a day to the track. Looking forward to seeing this horse now that he got a nice work in him. My guess is he is a different horse come Monday.
Let\'s not forget CE is 2-2 at the Downs
If you can get over the fact he hasn\'t got back to his top as a 2 year old yet.. he obviously has the class and has won over the track but he may be the favorite. He is tough to play and tough to leave off for me.
Paradigmatic of workouts being enigmatic. This from Downey -
\"Classic Empire was sent out at about 6:00 ET at Churchill Downs and breezed four furlongs in company with Perfect Performer in 49.60. He gallloped out an easy five furlongs in 1:03.00 according to Churchill Downs clockers. DRF\'s Mike Welsch caught the fractions in 24.02 and 49.21, with a gallop-out of 1:04.06.\"
Ah, handtiming . . . .
johnnym Wrote:
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> Early opinion this is the horse that takes of when
> the gates open.
This is wishful thinking. He\'s rated and relaxed like a seasoned pro when he\'s had other horses along side him.
This horse should scare people. There is something about him.
I get the same feeling. Strange. Fools gold?
Like I said I will see how is presents next week and see if he settles in.
Sek - you think Always Dreaming won\'t bounce? How special do you think this horse is and how do you explain such terrible slow times in his last two races?
Chas04 Wrote:
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> Sek - you think Always Dreaming won\'t bounce? How
> special do you think this horse is and how do you
> explain such terrible slow times in his last two
> races?
I think there\'s less of a chance with this horse to bounce than most horses with said pattern. There\'s a chasm between this horse\'s efforts and his actual talent level in those two early races. If I watched this one run those two 9s while being all-out, I\'d be more convinced a bounce was probable. That would mean he actually had the gobs of development in just a few months. A blind man could see that he was bottled up in both races.
This horse has been asked one time this year for his best and delivered without a flinch. This isn\'t the Devil May Care pattern where she quit in her first 3yo race and then wobbled down the stretch of the Bonnie Miss.
A single big effort in a prep race has tended to be better for Derby contenders than multiple big efforts. Multiple big efforts have ruined many Pletcher chances, IMO.
\"A single big effort in a prep race has tended to be better for Derby contenders than multiple big efforts. Multiple big efforts have ruined many Pletcher chances, IMO.\"
Such as??
johnnym Wrote:
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> \"A single big effort in a prep race has tended to
> be better for Derby contenders than multiple big
> efforts. Multiple big efforts have ruined many
> Pletcher chances, IMO.\"
>
> Such as??
Materiality, Carpe Diem, Verrazano, Gemologist, Dunkirk...
His horses with single good efforts in their 3yo campaigns have run the closest near their tops in the Derby... Destin, Danza, Revolutionary...
Danza and Revolutionary didn\'t run those tops at GP.
Materiality did and went from a -2 in the Florida Derby to a 2 in KY.
I couldn\'t agree more.
Those 2 9\'s were jogging.
His workouts the past couple of months were similar to todays workout. The more I see this horse the more I think he may be special.
Lads - have we not seen this before? Wondering what he got out of those races? Paid workouts that they were... The giant TAP jump at umm GP, and now you get 3-1 to find out. I think he is creating value elsewhere. Florida Derby was a joke, what a bad field really including the misplaced decent horses. I hope Gunnevera runs well and am rooting for him and JJ. When did Brooklyn Boys ever buy a good horse at auction? So many intangibles to NOT wager on this horse at 3-1. So, if he drifts up late to say 6-1, I will use defensively
3-1? 20 horse field? Classic Empire, Irish War Cry...
Come on man...
Use defensively how?
If you\'re in the horizontals its too late. In the verticals his win odds have nothing to do with it. He\'s either 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc. and his win ods have nothing to do with how you play him the vwrticals. How do pass at 3-1, and use defensively at 6-1?
mjellish Wrote:
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> Use defensively how?
>
> If you\'re in the horizontals its too late. In the
> verticals his win odds have nothing to do with it.
> He\'s either 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice,
> etc. and his win ods have nothing to do with how
> you play him the vwrticals. How do pass at 3-1,
> and use defensively at 6-1?
He meant to post this on another board. They like to use half the field \"defensively\" over there.
Steely Dan was a great show.
I think this horse offers little value. There are other much better horses to use next Saturday.
Mjellish - clues to price can hopefully be found in the early (Fri) wagering and the Oaks/Drby dbl will pays. However, I think this is all folly because of the AD drum beat getting louder from various news outlets. As for using defensively, maybe the wrong word. I might key him up/down in some small exactas with some longer horses. It is the Derby after all and I am ok with $250 exactas.
Now that Malagacy/Battalion Runner are officially out and Thunder Snow/LAL/Sonneteer are in, and this Girvin (BTW, Hovday was particularly hard on Sharp being so evasive) issue has been exposed, it surely moves the conversation. Especially considering the closers. Isnt the \"stone cold closer getting more distance\" one of the worst angles there is?
Whoever is interested, the draw has been moved to 11:00am on Wednesday. I mention this because those in the Saratoga area who may be going to the draw party at Embassy Suites will have to find another reason to celebrate. Still, I went last year and it was a great kickoff to the festivites. Anyone in the area and going give a shout.
As always, good luck all!
I don\'t think these videos even compare to how AD is currently working and galloping at Churchill. He is far more rank than he ever was in Florida. The two video links posted are nothing like he is currently working and galloping. Some may try to twist that around by saying it\'s a good thing he \"wants to run or do more.\" But that is flat wrong IMO. It\'s a good thing when horses listen to their riders, especially when they are about to run 1 1/4.
Public is obsessed with final time of works. Lot of buzz around this colt right now. Assuming neutral draws for the top 4 choices I could see AD going off favored at around 9/2 by post time. Who knows? Maybe he is all that and deserves it. But he is training differently at Churchill than he was down in Florida and seems unsettled to me.
Materiality also had a horrible draw. Thought he ran well in spite of it.
Excellent info MJ. My apologies on my post saying similar re: AD being the favorite potentially. I did not see this until after I posted.
If you are saying he is \"training different\" and not settled, it makes you wonder what might be different in Ky than Florida. Must just be the weather (sarcasm). I\'m inclined to still toss him altogether from the top two spots in my wagering.
On an unrelated note, Syndergaard at $.30 just had a horrible trip last night didn\'t he???? Hmmmm......
Yes he did, but it was mostly his own fault. He broke slow but had plenty of room to rally up the rail and get back on the pace but didn\'t. Then when he finally started to move Classic Cotton dropped over and Synder had to check. Cotton wound up being DQ\'d for the move, which truthfully I\'ve seen much worse and I wouldn\'t have been surprised if they had left him up. If you are referring to the Pletcher at CD factor, make of it what you will. Synder was coming off a long layoff, may have needed the race and did have a rough trip.
Classic Cotton is colt I\'ve been following since he worked at Saratoga last summer. That was a very fast pace he set last night and I\'m not surprised he got passed late.
Thanks for bringing the 4/28 w/o to our attention. Surely I would have misinterpreted the clock time without watching the video.
Syne did have a terrible trip but....A layoff like this and passing on a lot of spots for 3YO Sprinters in Florida made me wonder. Also Pletcher sent out Blofeld two years ago in the same situation. He got beat. The assumption that are as good as at 2YO and then some at 3 is not a good one for Pletcher. Havana is another one for Pletcher.
I passed the race. I could ha e never had that winner. Pletcher wins a lot of races. Pletcher wrecks a lot of xars. Remember those as much as you remember the wins....
Anyone see this yet?
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/pletcher-hopes-calm-aggressive-always-dreaming-rider-equipment-change/
Seems like reasonable steps to take and confirms what my clocker has been telling me all week. This horse wasn\'t working out and galloping like this in Florida, and it isn\'t a positive sign. Maybe the colt just hasn\'t settled in yet, or the onlookers get him agitated (which wouldn\'t bode well for AD on race day). I\'m sure Pletcher doesn\'t want AD to pull a Palace Malice in the Ky Derby.
Well said as usual. The soft managed campaign was obviously to get this one\'s head on straight. He is a Bodemiester. So he has a head strong mind. This horse had a joke of a race at Tampa then GP before a fine effort in Fla Derby. Its also a stampede to the 8frst turn of the KY Derby. If he faces some adversity chances are he falls apart. He is talented but is all of this coming a little to soon?
MJ,
I couldn\'t agree more with your concerns regarding AD and how he has looked in the AM since coming to Kentucky. In his workout the other day what would have impressed me was if he had responded to the rider, dropped his head and gone in 1:01-1:02. As a matter of fact Pletcher is so concerned he is changing AD\'s training regime by naming a new exercise rider (Nick Bush) and equipping AD with draw reins, which help a horse drop his head and relax during gallops. BTY, Bruno commented just before the Florida Derby that he doubted AD would rate after watching him train at PBD. These facts along with his ugly TG line, low odds and Pletcher\'s KD \"rap sheet\" make him a toss for me in the top two spots next Saturday.
Brian
Silver I see AD in a different light. This $350K Keeneland yearling showed talent for a different conditioner in a pair of summer NY heats. Since TAP, pretty colt has not been tested.
A replay of the Fla derby shows the boy having to sit down going into the turn and this one came quickly back to the bit, before crushing his field.
Expect very slow, well off the rail gallops this week. If he tolerates the restraint minimally, he is a major player and the biggest threat to \"Crack\". bbb
Do you think of your TG posts as a tryout for a TVG guest spot?
Why only the top 2 spots?
I think Pletcher is making a mistake. Give him some company on his gallops, and he will calm down.
I think I\'ll be getting good value in the top two spots and I want to make sure I cash my TRi\'s and Supers if my primary opinion is correct. If the pace is slow to moderate he could hang on for 3rd - 4th even if he is rank during the race. How much I use him underneath will depend on how he trains this week, race shape and PP. Good luck
Brian
BBB-- I can\'t figure out whether I would rather be your bookmaker or your editor.
Wasn\'t it just the other week when TAP said something along the lines of AD always beating his partner in the am, weather he was working inside or outside (because apparently the inside tended to be slow in the am down there) But the overall point was, he was talking up AD as a great worker in the morning, this is about as bad a news as you could get if you\'re looking for reasons to play this TAP on top, imho.
Changing riders and equipment the week of the biggest race of this horse\'s career? Fuel for what was already a 4 alarm fire..
Larry only gallops his horses. Either a jockey or exercise rider work the horses. As an aside, I guess he looks larger in the photos and videos than he really is. He was 180 at his largest, probably 170 most days.
There isn\'t a weight extreme for the horses when they work.