Thorographically speaking, his (isolated) top # makes him eighth or ninth fastest
in the Derby field, and of course it must be noted that # was posted on a sloppy
track. I will not get into the whole West Coast TG # debate, because apparently
Maharajimbo is traveling far and wide seeking spiritual guidance on this matter.
I guess to put a positive TG spin on this one, it is necessary to visit the
Archives and note that Giacomo, the 05 Derby winner from these connections, posted
a TG 5 while running fourth in the SA Derby, jumped up to a 02 in the
Derby. I do not need to be reminded that Giacomo benefited from a pace meltdown in
that race.
Breeding: Gormley\'s sire Malibu Moon has sired a recent Derby winner, Orb.
I noted in a separate thread that Malibu Moon is bred along the same lines as
influential Derby sire Pulpit (BY AP Indy OUT OF a Mr.
Prospector mare) (emphasis provided for educational purposes). Gormley is the
first foal out of Race to Urga, a stakes winner on grass. The dam sire, Bernstein
was a European turf runner who earned about 170K, though it has been said this
total could have been higher if he had been entered on shabbos. Bernstein
is best known as the sire of Tepin; Gormley might be one to watch first turf.
Race record: 4/6 lifetime, two of the four wins G1; the two losses being a
troubled loss to Classic Empire in the BC Juvie, and a retreating fourth place
finish in the San Felipe where he went head to head with the now injured Mastery,
who was the Derby favorite for about thirty seconds.
Intangibles: Steve Haskin, who ranks Gormley tenth on his \"Derby Dozen\",
calls Gormley \"a work in progress\". Watch the replay of the Santa Anita Derby.
Victor Espinoza grabs a hold of his mount and takes him back of a three way speed
duel. The results when a jockey tries to grab a hold of a frontrunner are not
always successful; in this case they were. Further \"work in progress\" (no pun) was
Gormley\'s most recent breeze (6f in 1:154) where he was taken well back
of a workmate and asked to pass said workmate on the inside. While
1:154 is not exciting, the final 1/8th was done in 11 and change. This
is a colt in the midst of a transformation.
More intangibles: The success of California 3YOs in the Derby and other 3YO
stakes in recent years; the success of Victor Espinoza at the Derby.
Intangible \"knock\": All of Gormley\'s races have been in Cali, he is not road
tested.
I know I have not paid any credence to other factors, such as dosage (Gormley is a
dual qualifier apparently), the \"Buckpasser X\" factor (discussed here briefly). I
have especially avoided discussing \"patterns\", because my personal opinion is that
lightly raced 3YOs have not raced frequently enough to establish same (heresy, I
know).
I thought Bernstein was best known as America\'s top Jewish sire? I recall TGAB using that line at more than one seminar......
Absolutely.
It will be interesting to see JB\'s comments in the seminar. In the ROTW comments for the San Felipe, he said Gormley is a very serious Derby contender.
Richeebee:
I 100% agree with you.
Furthermore as I posted horses with Grass in the pedigree seem to run well at the Downs.
I am starting to think of more pace than I was originally thinking.
Which if this occurs and he learns to relax, I say he gets first run at the leading pack.
His last work was the best pre Derby work I have seen and he came home very strong.
18-1 odds I am guessing at post time, he is on my short list.
One thing for sure, you will know by the time the cross the finish line for the first time if you are in the race with him.
Good Luck
John
From a purely sheets read, a win would be and oddity.
I\'d prefer for this not to become relevant, but I think he moves up in the mud.
Couldn\'t agree more, Jerry.
I do not follow offshore, but I could imagine Gormley leaving the gate at odds
of between 12 and 18/1. Depending on post and other considerations, I will make
a market decision to embrace a scenario which involves a colt with a homely
T-graph winning the Derby.
As I said, there are seven? eight? runners which have run faster TGs than
Gormley. Without divulging proprietary data (which is why I am allowed to make
the occasional heretic utterance), only two of these have separated themselves
from the others.
I won\'t be able to post about this colt much longer before Jimbo jumps all over
me. The Moss/Shirreffs team did not take Zenyatta on the road enough, and
Jimbo, who is currently scouting lightweighted sherpas to ride at the upcoming
Hyderabad Turf Club Meeting (which opens in July and is run over a weatherized
\"Monsoon\" track) never forgave them.
There are some KDs that taking the top speed numbers make sense, but most depend on where and when those numbers are made. Gormsley\'s Santa Anita was subpar for that race historically. He had a perfect trip. Midway, American, and Royal ran lights out. And it set up perfectly for Gormley who ran a nice race. And won a Grade 1. But it was not lights out. It may not have been as impressive as his two prior races. Which says to me he was not overextended and could move forward.
It\'s not just that several others have run faster, it\'s that the kind of improvement that gets back to his sloppy top puts just about the entire field in play (with a similar forward move). And some of these will be much longer odds.
I honestly don\'t know what they were trying to do with the work. (Are they envisioning a rail trip?). One would think that any of these horses could run :11 4/5 with those kinds of opening splits.
If you were guaranteed right now that Gormley were to run MTB\'s number (knowing nothing about the trip), could you play him on top at 12-1?
ajkreider Wrote:
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> I honestly don\'t know what they were trying to do
> with the work. (Are they envisioning a rail
> trip?). One would think that any of these horses
> could run :11 4/5 with those kinds of opening
> splits.
I would imagine that the fact that they were able to get a colt (who lived or
died on the front end in his first five races) to relax in the early stages of
the breeze is more significant than the closing fraction.
Gotta go now. Time to do a Zapruder film frame by frame review of Classic
Empire\"s lead changes in the lane at OP.
By the way, does anyone know if Cassini cleared Saturn\'s rings?
You used \'intangible\' in two headings, and you want to make Zapruder film jokes?
I like Royal MO better than Gormley. He ran from the far outside in both the Rebel and the SA Derby. I\'m hoping he draws into the field. Nothing wrong with his sheet pattern although a bit slow on numbers. CA numbers always seem to be a little light on TG. I like this horse at big odds, if he gets in.
I\'m not clear if Royal Mo is in the race or not. Assuming that he gets in. The conspiracy angle has yet be considered.
Royal Mo vs Gormley running head to head from the gate is unlikely to make sense to anybody.
Prior to retiring from Hollywood Gary Stevens aka George Woolf proved to be an accomplished front runner both in classic match races as well as at Churchill Downs.
Rather than a coin flip Victor deferred and all that was left was for trainer Sherriffs to teach Gormley some patience.
Most consider Gary Stevens an ethical guy. So is it inconceivable that he would melt or at least warm up the pace of the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
No Need (They all said) the pace looks to be very contested already. I\'m not suggesting contested pace I\'m envisioning Palace Malice. Just for 1/2 mile maybe 6F.
The oooheee is that Orb (whom most of us cashed with) BY Malibu Moon IN THE rain and mud may not have won (heresy) without the fortunate assist.
Vuja De? Of course without defections, if Thunder Snow goes, as it looks he will this fantasy is a fantasy I guess.
Apologies all around
Thanks richiebee for another entertaining and grounded post. I can\'t help but be inspired. Some day I\'ll learn grounded.
Edit: Reminded the Moss winner Giacomo was a meltdown as previously mentioned. out of
I like Gormley. I\'ve admitted his T-graph is a bit homely. I\'ve got to embrace the
intangibles.
We are getting close to the post position draw, entries being taken for the Derby
undercard, some long term weather forecasting by Frank D and of course the release
of the seminar; I\'m expecting that attempts at humor and discussion of intangibles
will be significantly reduced.
Speaking of intangibles, have read many of the different opinions and thoughts regarding such on these various threads. I too am looking for clues. So my question is this, as chaos seems to be the order in this years Ky Drby, shouldnt we be taking a more dogmatic stance in using TG figures? I\'m going to and also apply the most critical intangible and that is 2 year old form. This is a tough race and foundation is key.
Richie,
I couldn\'t disagree more with your last sentence.
2017 is The Intangible Derby....
The post draw may even create more what if\'s?
T-graph figs normally provide clarity of some degree. Always the bounce is a debate, another forward move in a progression or hitting the wall, some may like a certain pattern more than others.....
This year EVERYONE of the fast horses comes to Louisville with many intangibles.Trust me the search for alternatives isn\'t all that appealing either!
I will put out a proposition bet though:
If Practical Joke draws post 15 or further out? Whatever the T-graph record for ground loss at 2 turns I\'m confident Rosario will shatter it. Over or under 12.5 for the W\'s. I could see a 9W 8W trip.
Frank D.
How about this prop bet, who crosses the finish line first PJ or Gormley?
strickly speaking on figs, easy answer
PJ -140
richiebee Wrote:
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> I like Gormley. I\'ve admitted his T-graph is a bit
> homely. I\'ve got to embrace the
> intangibles.
>
> We are getting close to the post position draw,
> entries being taken for the Derby
> undercard, some long term weather forecasting by
> Frank D and of course the release
> of the seminar; I\'m expecting that attempts at
> humor and discussion of intangibles
> will be significantly reduced.
Been studying Gormley\'s sheet. If you look at it from the perspective that they got the flash they needed 2yo year to see the horse was something (running a \'4\' routing prior to the Breeders Cup Juvenile is enough to know you have something) and that they do not want to peak too early and have the horse peak in the Derby, then the sheet doesnt look so bad if you focus on pattern. Other winners who fit that pattern are Sea Hero and maybe Ferdinand. Trained by Mack Miller and Charlie Whittingham....you could imagine both of those guys not focusing on the preps and keeping the eye on the prize. Is Shirrefs cut from the same cloth as Miller and Whittingham?
the 1 in the mud with the front and back caulks is a weird figure and I do not know what to make of it. I am inclined to make it inert to the read. If you look at the sheet that way, you have a horse that ran a 4 top in his two year old year, and has had two prep races where he basically came back to that top....you could see the progression coming third race (i.e. now). If you go only off of 2yo numbers, this horse looks strong.....if you were told he was having two preps only and both paired up his 2yo top, you would be looking at the horse to make an explosive forward move.
Realize there is some poetic justice taken in this read, but i find that if you get too pinned into particular figures you can miss the forest through the trees. Still do not know who i like in this derby....there are a huge number of horses who can run figs that can get them close to the win.....we could see the most exciting final furlong ever.
Frank
12.5 W\'s total for the trip...wow...you KNOW how I hate \'overs\'...but in this case...
John
Does anyone know when Gormley is scheduled to ship?
He\'s still in California.
Also, did Sheriff\'s ship Giacomo this late?
I can\'t recall.
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I\'d prefer for this not to become relevant, but I
> think he moves up in the mud.
I would take note of the shoes...he was in front and back mud caulks in the mud that day. I would need to see the shoes as well as the mud.
and don\'t forget the TG cali numbers are always a point or two slower, that pattern screams forward move
emoji eye wink with tongue sticking out
Stayin\' alive!
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cassini-survives-closest-ever-encounter-with-saturn-snaps-stunning-images/?WT.mc_id=SA_TW_SPC_NEWS
\"I am delighted to report that Cassini shot through the gap just as we planned and has come out the other side in excellent shape,\"
Meaning Paco was riding, not Wide Mikey...
Or Rosario...
JB,
You referred to Paco as a top 5 rider and I whole heartedly agree. We have plunged on him the past couple years at some good prices on Spa week days when he came up with The Shore running weekends only.
Kevin Cox, who I\'m sure you know constantly refers to him as Bobblehead, for all the looking back side to side and under his legs he does when on the engine. Cracks me up. Paco is also a former friend of my favorite Carona Beach House bartender. She liked Bobblehead but had a couple of other words as well.
Maybe he\'s not getting good mounts this year, but his win and top 3% are just meh - for a top guy.
Strong early pace that collapsed late. Huge field. Lot of bumping and wide trips.
Wondering how the survivors come out of the SA Derby.
Good Luck,
Joe B
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Maybe he\'s not getting good mounts this year, but
> his win and top 3% are just meh - for a top guy.
Sounds like he may have gotten a good mount last year but lost it.
Maybe I\'m coming into this conversation late, but can someone remind me why we\'re talking about Gormley?
jerry Wrote:
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> Maybe I\'m coming into this conversation late, but
> can someone remind me why we\'re talked not about
> Gormley?
what?
Second base.
Tale Of Ekati Wrote:
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> Does anyone know when Gormley is scheduled to
> ship?
> He\'s still in California.
> Also, did Sheriff\'s ship Giacomo this late?
> I can\'t recall.
Gormley is scheduled to breeze today (Saturday) at SA, ship to CD May 1 (Monday).
I\'m struggling with the speed figures TG et al awarded in the Santa Anita Derby. Why is it so slow? Just a little faster than $7,500 claimers and crushed by $25K claimers. Double check of facts needed here because I\'m just estimating.
Los Angeles got a lot of rain in February approx 3 inches, which is a lot for that area albeit the rainy season. March had little precipitation and every day was virtually the same high of 70 low of 51. The race was the 8th of April with no precipitation in the first week. I doubt fog is measured.
Just explaining away all the SoCal contenders as a slow crop seems simple minded. Curious how other reconcile the anomaly?
Simple minded? The horses out there are too slow, with the exception of a one mile slop race on Gormley\'s sheet. Why does there need to be some great in depth study about it? Just because it is the great Southern California? The crop this year is slow out there. Period. What needs to be reconciled? What does February\'s rainfall amount have to do with anything?
Derby time, this board is usually fun to read/post...lots of insight and handicapping and sheet reading. This year, more than any other, too many posts I read are about questioning the numbers and should we add/subtract points to this sheet or that sheet, or this race or that race. The Santa Anita Derby was slow. If the same horses ran the same day in Missouri and it was called the Fairmount Derby and got slow #s, would there still be an issue? Or because it is Missouri would you just accept that it was slow and move on. Where is the rule that says the Santa Anita Derby has to be fast?
Another nice work
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eeks6vSwys0
Another nice job of calling by the wonderful TVG crew. Gormley was \"the horse in front\" until he passed the horse in front and then \"clearly he was the horse in the back.\"
In a positive note these are the people that we bet against.
What is the best figure you can see Gormley running? His sheet reminds me of Invisible Ink\'s who, if I remember correctly, got back to his top after a similar set of regressions. But do you see a 1 winnng this race? Is it realistic to expect a new top? I don\'t think so but we\'ll find out.
jerry Wrote:
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> What is the best figure you can see Gormley
> running? His sheet reminds me of Invisible Ink\'s
> who, if I remember correctly, got back to his top
> after a similar set of regressions. But do you see
> a 1 winnng this race? Is it realistic to expect a
> new top? I don\'t think so but we\'ll find out.
Alas, no shot in this life you\'ll see anything resembling 55-1 on Gormley.