Do Miss Sky Warrior & Paradise Woods repeat their final preps where each won by double digits, or does one or both bounce? They both have lines that could indicate healthy forward movement and no bounce, or too big a jump in their last with a bounce coming. It comes down to how you choose to read each one\'s sheet.
Of the 2, Miss Sky Warrior has a much better foundation, having raced 4 times as a 2 YO and 4 straight graded stakes wins. Paradise Woods has improved by leaps and bounds in each of her 2 subsequent starts since her debut last January. With no backward moves, a bounce may not happen.
As far as the odds, Paradise Woods got a 107 Beyer, compared with Miss Sky Warrior\'s 94 in each of their last races, which most likely will make PW the heavy favorite.
I can\'t see any other filly in here who wins this other than one of these 2. I\'ll play both in the Oaks/Derby double, but I\'m leaning towards Miss Sky Warrior for a win bet due to her better foundation and better odds. There\'s too much danger in an exacta box due to a likely low payoff and the chance at least one of them bounces.
So, what are you all thinking about the Oaks?
Breen doesn\'t have the best stats at CD. About 2/3 X.
Mandella, surprisingly, isn\'t great there either.
Re: Mandella--
Beholder ran in the Oaks for Mandella in \'13 and she ran 2nd to Pletcher\'s Princess of Sylmar. Her other race outside of Cali was a fourth at Belmont. Besides her debut at Hol when she ran 4th, I believe she was first or second in every other race of her career, all in California.
Interestingly Beholder was nominated to the Triple Crown in 2013 along with 6 other fillies. By that point, she had run a 108 Beyer figure, won the BC Juvy fillies, and one could see the slight possibility of running against the boys.
Fast foward to Jan. 24, 2017. Five fillies were originally nominated to the Triple Crown including Unique Bella. One other filly who was nominated by that original deadline was Paradise Woods who had not even started a race yet......