I went through the archives and created the following spreadsheet (link underlined below). You\'re welcome to use and please let me know if you notice any errors. The 2017 data comes from the TDN Top 20.
Pletcher Derby Results (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Pqp7wb65Bb_mirYNqNQQnSlMvacC05z1c58MonoXkwM/edit#gid=0)
Some Definitions:
TG Top Prior to Derby - Best TG Figure prior to Derby, no qualifiers applied
TG Top to Final Prep Delta - (Best TG Figure prior to final prep - TG Figure in final prep) = Thus a (-) means the Final TG Figure was slower
Delta Final Prep-Derby - (TG Figure from Final Prep - TG Figure in Derby) = Thus a (-) means the Derby TG Figure was slower
Delta TG Top - Derby - (TG Top - TG Figure in Derby) = Thus a (-) means the Derby TG Figure was slower than previous TG Top Figure
A couple of observations:
Horses that had their final Prep at AQU have performed poorly:
Keyed Entry - 20th (-18.75 from Top)
Any Given Saturday - 8th (0.25 from Top)
Gemologist - 16th (-12.5 from Top)
Verrazano - 14th (-8.5 from Top)
Outwork - 14th (-5.75 from Top)
This applies to Battalion Runner in 2017
Horses that produce their TOP TG Figure at GP perform poorly:
In spreadsheet these are denoted by GREEN color
*Trippi - 11th
Invisible Ink - 2nd
Limehouse - 4th
Keyed Entry - 20th
*Scat Daddy - 18th
*Dunkirk - 11th
*Devil May Care - 10th
*Stay Thirsty - 12th
*El Padrino - 13th
Verrazano - 14th
*Materiality - 6th
*Itsaknockout - 9th
This applies to Battalion Runner, Always Dreaming, Patch and Malagacy in 2017
Those with an * completed their final prep at GP.
Invisible Ink and Limehouse are noted outliers. Which leads me to:
Horses that have a \"TG Top to Final Prep Delta\" that is -1 or lower (more negative) have actually performed relatively better in the Derby:
In spreadsheet these are denoted by darker coloring across line
Invisible Ink - 2nd
Limehouse - 4th
Bluegrass Cat - 2nd
*Keyed Entry - 20th
Join in the Dance - 7th
*Stay Thirsty - 12th
*Verrazano - 14th
Intense Holiday - 12th
Vinceramos - 17th
*Itsaknockout - 9th
The * indicates the final prep was at GP or AQU. If you remove those, you\'re left with:
Invisible Ink - 2nd (Paired Top in Derby)
Limehouse - 4th (-2 from Top in Derby, but 0.5 improvement from final prep)
Bluegrass Cat - 2nd (Paired Top in Derby)
Join in the Dance - 7th (-2.5 from Top in Derby, paired final prep)
Intense Holiday - 12th (-3 from Top in Derby, -0.5 from final prep)
Vinceramos - 17th (-11.5 from Top in Derby, 0.25 improvement from final prep)
Tapwrit, Patch and Malagacy all fit this profile this year. However, Patch was unraced at 2 and comes in off 3 lifetime preps and Malagacy has now raced twice at OP and hasn\'t gotten back to his GP figure.
That leaves Tapwrit. I realize, the sample size is small but it seems that Tapwrit has a decent shot to get back to his Top and is almost certain to run a better figure than his Bluegrass effort. He\'s the only Pletcher horse I will use and if he trains well at CD I\'ll be using him heavily.
The TAP Wood stats may be a bit misleading - as no Wood runner. by any trainer, has hit the trifecta since I think 2003.
Thanks. This is great!
I don\'t think it\'s a large enough sample size to draw much from. The only correlation of any kind I could really detect was related to the number of fast 3yo preps ran.
His horses with 1 very fast 3-year-old effort run better than his horses that had 2 or 3 big efforts in the spring. I have some free time today for a change, I might expound on that further later.
Looking at his runners who have >3 point new top earned in their Final prep:
Bandini - 19th (+7 Final Prep Top / -21 from Top in Derby)
Circular Quay - 6th (+3.25 Final Prep Top / -0.75 from Top in Derby)
Monba - 20th (+3.75 Final Prep Top / -21.75 from Top in Derby)
Devil May Care - 10th (+4 Final Prep Top / -5.5 from Top in Derby)
Charming Kitten - 9th (+4.5 Final Prep Top / -4 from Top in Derby)
Danza - 3rd (+3.75 Final Prep Top / +0 from Top in Derby)
Destin - 6th (+7.75 Final Prep Top / -2.75 from Top in Derby)
Battalion Runner didn\'t run a new top last time. Always Dreaming?
Apologies - Updated.
Still falls into the categories of Top at GP and last race at AQU.