Elimination factors that I use:
1) Must have at least 3 preps as a 3yo
Don\'t fit: ESSENCE OF DUBAI, JOHANNESBURG, SAARLAND, PROUD CITIZEN, MAYAKOVSKY, CASTLE GANDOLFO, CRIMSON HERO
2) Sub-6 jinx (relying on data from a past post)
Don\'t fit: CAME HOME, HARLAN\'S HOLIDAY, REQUEST FOR PAROLE, MAYAKOVSKY
3) Too late of a start to their career as a 2yo or not enough development
Don\'t fit: BUDDHA, MEDAGLIA D\'ORO, EASY GRADES, WILD HORSES
4) Coming in off a layoff (I\'m using March 23rd (Spiral) as a cutoff)
Don\'t fit: ESSENCE OF DUBAI, PERFECT DRIFT, REQUEST FOR PAROLE
Out of who is left, I will wait until the PP draw and odds for my final selection. Here\'s the remaining ones in order of Beyer (last race):
WAR EMBLEM 112
SUNDAY BREAK 104
PRIVATE EMBLEM 100
= = = = =
(I CONSIDER THE REST OF THESE TOO SLOW)
BLUE BURNER 96
LUSTY LATIN 91
WINDWARD PASSAGE 91
OCEAN SOUND 90
STRAIGHT GIN 88
USS TINOSA 87
IT\'SALLINTHECHASE 82
Does anyone have any knocks against WAR EMBLEM, SUNDAY BREAK, or PRIVATE EMBLEM as far as breeding, figure pattern, etc. that is backed up by even a small sampling of data? I know that WAR EMBLEM is a dreaded front runner, but how about the other 2?
Based on some of the other posts, SAARLAND looks like a logical choice to run 2nd/3rd.
War Emblem is going to back up big time. Sunday Break and Private Emblem are tougher reads. HP
War Emblem ran a fast race (not as fast as the 110 Beyer would suggest) but the pace
in that race was very ordinary. He will have a hard time outrunning Buddah or MD. He has never shown any ability to rate so I don\'t regard him as a strong contender. Sunday Break wouldn\'t have gotten by Buddah if they went around again so I can\'t be too high on him but he did show significant improvement in the Wood. Private Emblem looks to be on the improve as well and even though he appears to be a cut or two below the top
horses, he is coming into his own & if he trains well over the surface I am going to use him, especially if he\'s ~15 to 20-1.
Nunzio
If Sunday Break gets in I\'ll have to use him on some of my tickets. Those Wood frontrunners are going to be nowhere in the stretch on Saturday. If Buddha runs in the money I\'ll be shocked but at least I\'ll be able to be happy for someone. Good luck. HP
HP,
Don\'t assume Buddah will be in front; he doesn\'t need the lead. He was forced to
adapt to the race shape in the Wood.
Day won the race going into the first turn when he was forced to squeeze through a tight spot or take back and sit behind MD. I think
you\'ll see patient Pat sit 3rd or 4th
(if the pace is too fast) and get the jump on the late runners. I read MD came back coughing after his recent work in KY so
its not clear if he\'ll be at his best.
Good Luck.
Nunzio
I believe that before the Ark. Derby Asmussen said that Private Emblem needed time between his races (I think he was going in with 6 weeks rest). You can file that with all the other garbage you will hear, or use it, it\'s up to you. Sure hasn\'t looked good so far at CD.
FastSpeed,
Can you elaborate on how Privtae Emblem hasn\'t looked good at CD. If you are correct, you might have saved me on
using him.
Nunzio
he was reported by multiple sources (including haskin on bloodhorse) to have looked \"dull\" last week. However, I am sad to see that he was reported today as having looked pretty good yesterday (\"the best gallop out of the day\").
like I said I treat reports with a pinch of salt (especially positive reports - these are the best 3yr olds in the country, they\'re supposed to look good working) but I do tend to take into account negative reports for borderline contenders to help me decide.
I\'m working on a won-last study involving energy distribution patterns, and neither War Emblem nor Private Emblem have much of a shot to repeat.
In my mind, that knocks everyone out, but obviously SOMETHING has to give, so...
The 4 I have mild feelings for are:
JOHANNESBURG
SAARLAND
CASTLE GANDOLFO
PERFECT DRIFT
Don\'t you just LOVE it when you out-smart yourself? lol It seems like the eliminations factors I use work better than I gave them credit for.
I\'ll say this... I never thought I\'d see a SPT horse win the Derby!!! I guess they owe \"The Prince\" a million dollars for winning the ILL DBY and a triple crown race... So as it turns out, he got War Emblem for \"free.\"
If anyone had the exacta, then you can pat yourself on the back for a brilliant wager.