Bandwagon wheels starting to wobble. 3 for 3 over the surface......wagon going to get even heavier as we get closer.
Would anyone bet against him going off the favorite assuming reasonable draw??
Good Luck,
Joe B
I\'m sorry Joe...McCraken the favorite of what race again?
Ok.....so who\'s the favorite?
Good Luck,
Joe B
My Opinion:
McCracken is not going favored and I contemplated this possibility for a long time. He could be second choice but I doubt that also on the following basis: He has one Beyer Figure of 95 and no others in the 90\'s. The final odds in the Derby and many races are strongly correlated to Beyer figs among other factors but the lack of a 100 Beyer when CE has one as 2yo and Irish War Cry has two 100 Beyer figs means McCracken won\'t be favored. Just can\'t see it happening.
Classic Empire is the most likely favorite. If not, IWC barely edges him.
He\'s got the two preps and paired-tops pattern that have received accolades in TGJB\'s recent seminars. Many are expecting a forward move based on his missing the Tampa Bay Derby and the ability of the Nafzger-Wilkes to prep for a big race.
For me, he\'s already improved 3 points from 2 to 3, he\'s still slower than many of these, and his dam was better sprinting. I\'ve read that the Churchill surface in autumn is different from the spring surface. I would not be surprised if he runs well, but he wouldn\'t be for me as the favorite or anything like it. Of course, I said the same thing about California Chrome, Nyquist, etc.
How in the world can McCraken be favored in this spot above:
1) Classic Empire
2) Always Dreaming
3) Irish War Cry
Always hard to predict betting odds in the Derby.
That said, no shot in hell that McCracken goes off favored, or even 2nd choice.
Small chance for 3rd choice, but more likely 4th choice.
Classic Empire probably 45% shot to be favored.
Always Dreamin\' 40%.
Irish War Cry 15%.
Unless IWC has a huge week training, which seems unlikely since he won\'t be at CD as of current plans.
Jim
He should be 4th choice around 10/1 I would figure.
Without knocking your trio, Mcraken could not be any more solid. Never asked as a juvenile winning well clear, from well back, in all three trips.
Off the shelf, gives big weight in Tampa tour de force, then develops a filling and misses a work prior to Bluegrass. Last four works outstanding, absolutely the most mature colt last ten, twelve years.
May not be favored... but should be! bbb
A mature tour de force. Got it.
BBB,
With all due respect, I never understood the whole \"never asked\" theory of upgrading performances. Just because a horse wasn\'t beaten to a pulp, doesnt mean it wasnt asked. And it doesnt mean that he would automatically run significantly faster if he WAS beaten to a pulp with the whip. In any case, watch the KY Jockey Club; I would not say that McCracken was \"never asked\".....far from it. True he wasnt\'t whipped 20 times down the lane, but he was definitely ridden very hard to prevail.
It is similar to others on this board trying to just arbitrarily give Always Dreaming lower numbers because of the ease of wins and not having to go particularly fast to win etc. The horse doesnt run a 4 until he runs a 4. If it\'s a 9 and you think he should improve off that because he hadnt knocked himself out yet, and is making the third start of his form cycle and has room to move forward as an early season 3yo etc, that\'s fine. But I cant just cross out a 9 and make it a 4 to fit my opinion.
Back to McCracken.....you see alot of the positives, and I see more of the negatives. I see a horse who has never run fast enough to win this, while off a backward line and running the worst race of his life last time out...a race that came after an injury that caused him to miss signifcant training time and a scheduled race. If you want to say that he wasnt cranked and draw a line through it, ok....but he still hasnt run fast enough to win. Combined that with his running style forcing him to potentially waste his number by either being in traffic or very wide, not to mention one of the top 4-5 wagering options, and he seems to be an easy toss for me.
But that\'s the beauty of this time of year....debates are lively and the juices are flowing. Things are heating up and it\'s the best time of the year!
Bull
Backward line? Who\'s numbers are you looking at? Visually you can say he wasn\'t stunning in the Bluegrass and maybe doesn\'t want more distance. He comes in with a pair up and can easily go forward in the Derby. Think he\'s the most likely horse to hit the board. Does he win, I don\'t know but he\'s an easy horse to use in my plays. Lots of reason to toss underlays coming off big tops, I see very few reasons to toss McCraken at 10-1. Best of luck. T.
Songbird looks like a prime example of needing to upgrade the performance. No idea how you would go about assigning different numbers, but there was obviously more there - and she showed it later.
AD\'s allowance figure was, as Sek points out, more a result of the very slow early pace than the \"ease\" of how it was done. There\'s only so much time you can make up on the back end - and it\'s exaggerated by the fact that that allowance was longer than the comparison races for that day. Those others would have been (probably) slowing down dramatically while AD was still flying along.
Thats my mistake. I haven\'t seen the sheet yet; was sort of just assuming it was a slightly backwards move (like it is on some \"other\" numbers). It makes the line more positive Id agree with you there. If he does move forward, do you get a little leery about him wasting that number with ground loss given his running style? Just trying to spark some discussion. It is all meant in good spirits.
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Songbird looks like a prime example of needing to
> upgrade the performance. No idea how you would go
> about assigning different numbers, but there was
> obviously more there - and she showed it later.
>
> AD\'s allowance figure was, as Sek points out, more
> a result of the very slow early pace than the
> \"ease\" of how it was done. There\'s only so much
> time you can make up on the back end - and it\'s
> exaggerated by the fact that that allowance was
> longer than the comparison races for that day.
> Those others would have been (probably) slowing
> down dramatically while AD was still flying along.
Isnt this discussion really about the \"h?\" designation? It seems to me that if the horse gets a designation like that, you need to tread carefully on giving that figure too much credence. When I see a \"h?\" I recognize that the horse might have been able to go faster and I take that into consideration in projecting a future figure. It seems to me that the difference that is being talked about is that some people think the purveyor of the product sold here is too parsimonious in giving out the \"h?\" designations. Or have I misunderstood the discussion?
Bull, In the Jockey Club Mcraken settled nicely, was three wide, four wide around the bends, passed horses into the far turn with ease, straightened, tapped twice left handed and walked away in hand.
His works are outstanding, his out times even better.
Feel strongly he needed the Bluegrass after missing a work and being off almost two months. Push button colt seems strictly the one to beat to me. bbb
Don\'t forget tour de force
IMO its pretty tough to call him the one to beat when he hasn\'t even run fast enough yet to win. But there are things to like about him for sure.
Last year I bet Brody\'s Cause thinking along those same lines. Although he hadn\'t run fast enough to win he was sitting on an explosive pattern and I liked how he ran on the track. I also didn\'t like any of the favorites and saw major flaws in all of them. I got 29-1 on Brody, which helped to mitigate some the risk I was taking by betting on a horse who hand\'t even run fast enough yet to win the race. So given your statement that you feel McCraken is the horse the beat, What kind of odds do you feel you need to get on him to justify taking that same stance and risk knowing he will probably need to run substantial new top to win?
We will agree to disagree on that race, although I will say the last 50yds he had the field measured going away while not being ridden that aggressively. Either way that is just a 2yo race and I dont think you will be betting him because of how hard/not hard he was ridden in a 2yo race nor will I NOT be betting on him because of the same. We are more sophisticated than that.
That said, after seeing his TG sheet, he looks to have a better chance on them than I initially thought....he is a total toss on those \"other\" numbers. That being said, there are still others faster in here and I think it all comes down to trip for him. A ground loaded fig with a wide trip probably doesn\'t get the biscuits here as he would need to be MUCH the best or hope all the other principal contenders just didn\'t show up.
Hey MJ, I\'m not much on boiling down a performance to an integer, and as patterns go I prefer form cycles. This Ghostzapper colt has done nothing wrong and in my opinion his races, figures, (Bluegrass) aside, probably does not accurately reflect his ability.
A lot of water will flow before he gets in the gate. Ian will likely postpone tomorrows work a day and may change his schedule some. Ideally, for me five eights in company, then a solo blowout half Mon or Tues leading up to the race.
Odds wise, as I wrote he should be favored, perhaps six to one? As far as running a new top, he will run as fast as he needs to. He\'s a top shelf colt.
bbb
The price on McCracken doesn\'t figure to be appetizing enough to bet a \"slowish\" horse. He looks ok on TG and I won\'t rehash the argument I made after the bluegrass about Wilkes being awfully good at pointing to a race and expecting much better in the derby.
But is 10-1 a fair price on a horse needing a trip and maybe a 2 point new top?
Very hard to say. Looks to Me like a potential multirace use but tough to key as \"the one\".
Im not sure id call mccracken slow..I mean, yes others have run faster, but I dont recall many if any, putting in back to back efforts....havent seen all the sheets, but off his last efforts, moving forward a point,(trip a factor) hes right there....at 10-1 or higher hes a use...A 1 in most derbys gets you into the tri/super...again, trip aside.
Touch
I have seen the sheets for this years derby. Not sure what other years has to do with it.
And McCracken is \"slowish\". There are a handful faster and several will be longer prices.
10-1 needing to go forward 2 points with a trip.
Of course, the other point of view is that he will just go as fast as he needs to. Just step on the gas a little harder. Makes sense. At least on this board at this time of year.
well, what im saying is, looking back at archives, running a 1, is usually good enough for tris/supers...however, with wide trips a 1 sometimes doesnt get in...of those faster horses, how many have run bad races also? Irish war cry comes to mind Or like AD, look to react..IRAP comes to mind...again, havent seen all the sheets, but did notice practical joke looks solid
Just to further add to the value question
Irish war cry is about 8 lengths faster, with both at their top. And figures 2 points lower in odds or thereabouts. 8-1 vs 10-1
McCraken pattern is one I happen to like.
1st race then a big move forward then paired.
Moved forward again and paired.
Considering Ghostzappers move forward an average of 4 points from 2-3 and this is a April colt.
I have also watched his training videos Hernandez has him glued to the rail very Borel like.
At 10-1 he is very usable to me and would not be surprised he if he crossed the finished line first.
Lets not forget he is 3-3 at the Downs.
Know I will take my flogging like a man
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Touch
>
> I have seen the sheets for this years derby. Not
> sure what other years has to do with it.
>
> And McCracken is \"slowish\". There are a handful
> faster and several will be longer prices.
>
> 10-1 needing to go forward 2 points with a trip.
>
>
> Of course, the other point of view is that he will
> just go as fast as he needs to. Just step on the
> gas a little harder. Makes sense. At least on
> this board at this time of year.
Jimbo: it\'s pretty much what happened with last year\'s Derby winner.
Good Luck,
Joe B
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Of course, the other point of view is that he will
> just go as fast as he needs to.
This \"fast as he needs to!\" reminds me of a funny story that most probably have never heard, so in an effort to alleviate the mood, here we go:
Many moons ago JB Holmes, from small-town Kentucky, is playing a practice round as a sort of tryout/audition with the UK golf coach. Coach isn\'t impressed with JB\'s unorthodox mechanics, and is kinda grumbling his discontent. At a par 5, JB blasts one down the middle, leaving himself about 260 in. JB hits a 5-iron onto the green. The following exchange ensues:
Coach: what\'d you hit?
JB: 5.
Coach: 5-Iron? How far can you hit a 5-iron, JB?
JB: Far as I want to.
Now I wasn\'t there, so I didn\'t hear it, but I got the story from a PGA caddie, so it could be at least close to the truth ;-)
I don\'t have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun you:)
I like the story. Thanks.
When the subject of value came up I wanted to tell the story of Abe, Sol & the elephant but its just too long.
Instead, for the many music & music video fans I\'ll just point out that Kirsten Dunst has oddly covered \"Turning Japanese\" on You Tube! Of course she also did Fargo last season so she\'s more versatile than I would have first guessed.
Wha??? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0X3CLJVMJU)
And Two more weeks?
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like the story. Thanks.
>
> When the subject of value came up I wanted to tell
> the story of Abe, Sol & the elephant but its just
> too long.
>
> Instead, for the many music & music video fans
> I\'ll just point out that Kirsten Dunst has oddly
> covered \"Turning Japanese\" on You Tube! Of course
> she also did Fargo last season so she\'s more
> versatile than I would have first guessed.
>
> Wha???
>
> And Two more weeks?
Two more weeks until those lovely Oaks/Derby undercards.
Pray the weather holds.
Tabasco:
If you are a fan of Ms. Dunst, born a few miles south of Bed Room Downs in Point Pleasant, NJ, hope you have seen her in the 2011 flick Melancholia.
The versatility you mention is a beautiful thing, like a speedy sort of horse being taught to rate in the hands of an experienced trainer and rider. My contrarian Derby selection has not been mentioned in a single thread and (it\'s early yet) I\'m loving it.
richie:
I have seen Melancholia and it was memorable. Surely well titled. Loving a good mystery I am still contemplating your clues. I have a suspicion and need to do a little research before accusations.
The most likely horse to hit the board is Practical Joke.
Note: That\'s coming from someone who keyed Perfect Drift in the Belmont.
Jimbo, not sure you grasp how dirt races are run. As enlightenment, very few dirt animals accelerate, in fact each eighth mile is almost always slower than the previous eighth.
As for McCRAKEN, he may be \"slowish\" to you, yet he runs his eighths in twelves.
Among many attributes this Ghostzapper colt worked super this morning. Check out the video! The one to beat twelve days out!
bbb
And when Irap went the last 3 furlongs of the Blue Grass in 38-1/5, McCraken lost a half length.
I acknowledge that McCraken missed some time, that Ian Wilkes was using the Blue Grass as a prep, that McCraken may win the Derby, and that people who know horse flesh sometimes know things that don\'t show up in speed figures. [That is, for example, why Always Dreaming went off at 5-2 in the Florida Derby.]
I also think, however, that sometimes horses get reputations that get ahead of what they have demonstrated on the track and consequently get overbet. The horses that McCraken beat last fall have not proven to be the cream of the crop (how many are even in the Derby field?), and the ones he has beaten this year will be longshots on Derby Day.
I\'d be surprised if the Derby seminar doesn\'t identify McCraken as a horse who is likely to run well. The question is, how short a price am I willing to take on a horse that will need to run better than he ever has, and may have to overcome significant ground loss, in order to win.
A broader perspective could be they have already exceeded expectations.
My concern - where does this horse win the race? Unlikely to dominate the first fraction or an easy pace through the 1/2 mile. I would expect his best c/b seen on the second turn in traffic going wide to catch up with many proven to be able to run a strong mile from the front. The Hernandez fans imagine him as MTB skimming the rail and/or splitting horses to find a clear path home.
His chance is then to relish the added distance and come steam rolling home jumping up while all those in front of him don\'t. Probable that one of the contenders will run just that race McC\'s a possibility although I think the shortest priced one.
IMO, Calumet is a more likely story. Now leaning toward Wynn\'s Match Up Bets as simpler propositions. Thanks to the Face man!
Gunnevera +105
vs
McCraken -135
DRF Owner Article --->Whitham Thoroughbreds (http://www.drf.com/news/whitham-succeeds-her-own-terms)
You know I am starting to think the Bluegrass this year could end up being one of the worst derby preps ever. Got to see J Boys Echo work on Sunday and absolutely nothing special about this animal at all.
Saw McCracken the next day and nothing special here either. Disagree with Welsch comment. I felt McCracken was beat right from the git go and could never catch up until workmate pulled up on gallop out and then McCracken went by. Not an impressive work mate either.
Have seen Tapwrit but only once and he didn\'t work or run and that was a while ago. Impressive looker. Big striking animal.
Also saw Untrapped work and he was impressive. Would of missed most of this workout had my friend not bumped me to pay attention. Also striking imposing animal. (Jesus these Tapits!!). Not impressed with Untrapped on any of his races however.
Hence was an excellent workout and he looks like a winner. Ran fast and did it easy. Looks to me to be dead fit and smooth. Much the best of what I have seen. One of the best workouts I had ever seen in my life was Union Rags at Keeneland and this Hence was close to that if not equal. Solid horse. Looked ready to run that day.
Also saw Lookin at Lee and he is a worn out tired horse. No energy. Dull work. Wanted to go back to the barn. Scratch.
I don\'t see McCracken or J Boys Echo or Lookin at Lee having any chance to even hit exotics. Hence is a different story and untrapped could hit exotics. At least he is moving in the right direction.
Wont see any more works. My friend Mark will be at Churchill most of next week and back home before Oaks day.
I cant remember needing the seminar more than I do this year. Really looking forward to it.
I \'ve seen Untrapped enough to safely assume that he wants no part of a 1 1/4 at this stage. No improvement (numbers wise) as a 3yo.
Tough to like, but he\'ll be 30-1.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Pizza,
I simply have no idea what so ever what workout you were watching?
I\'m just going to leave it at that and will not debate or respond.
It seems the Washington phenomenon of alternative facts has come to the TG board.
People randomly take points of figures to make their points, imaginary sheets that mirror a previous runner, now we can see what we want to see.....
Frank D.
Frank, I would love to hear the implied workout opinion. Not kidding.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Frank, I would love to hear the implied workout
> opinion. Not kidding.
What is the implied workout opinion?
He implied he disagreed with the workout assessment.
Don\'t agree about the Blue Grass....think Thunder Gulch. His BG was awful, as the race was run with a nothing pace and he ran accordingly. Got a great post, pace, and ride to win the big one.
IF \'Joke draws a wide post, he is the most likely winner, at a price. I like horses with solid 2yo foundations, and the match race with Syndegaard knocked him out.
He is recovered, and coming forward at the right time. McC IS the real deal, and his CD form speaks volumes!
That McCracken was \"beat from the get go\". That was as impressive a gallop out as you would ever want to see. Hernandez practically had to strangle him to pull him up. Not to mention that a lot more folks than Welsch were very impressed with the work.
Whether any of this means anything, IMHO I thought the said assessment was out in left field more like the upper deck.....
Frank,
I know you are right that most people liked the work. I would of liked to have seem him eager and moving up steadily but I didn\'t. I wanted to root for him. My friend really liked him. (I think he saw him win at Churchill and has been talking derby ever since}. IMHO I just didn\'t like what I saw. Also felt that if this weren\'t the derby both MCcraken and LOL would not run. They both have the look of a guy that just badly lost a bar fight.
Have you seen anything else you really liked?
Pizza, you must have the wrong work, \"crack\" worked beautifully. True he took a handful of strides to come back to the boy and his head was slightly cocked down the lane but that\'s nitpicking. He is going out faster than most can run. Sitting on a huge effort for sure. bbb
Pizza,
I\'ve said it a few times to me they all are underneath horses this year. I\'m not thinking key on anyone for the top 2 spots.
Of CE, AD, IWC, MC & PJ the probable top 5 betting choices the only one I\'m even considering is McCracken. I\'ll not be making any major plunges, if it wasn\'t the Derby it would be passed here.
Good luck,
Frank D.
If Practical Joke adds blinkers for the big race, would you still feel he\'s the most likely winner?
Classic Empire\'s aura is that Breeders Cup race. Has not come close to duplicating it. The Arkansas Derby was nice but it was not in the Breeders cup league. Add his quirkiness and you have a very chancy type. Always Dreaming can one say bounce; Massive move forward; the prototype T. Plethcher 3 year old. IWC gets more love. Good race, bad race, good race line. Not sure what excuse for bad race; but like the good races.
IF he draws the auxiliary gate, he is a STONE-COLD mortal lock! Empty the kid\'s college fund, the retirement, and take out a 2nd mortgage.
IF he draws any post inside of the 12 hole, he will have to work too much.
I haven\'t felt so strongly about a horse since Monarchos, and he was a mortal lock; I couldn\'t empty my wallet fast enough!
Walk me through this one. The one race he didn\'t win, he was up near the pace. Taking back a bit means he\'s probably going to be wide and wide. What number do you see him running? Do you think a zero wins this? - cuz that mean a whole bunch of horses won\'t move forward or get back to their tops.
A Zero does win this, and a LOT of horses won\'t go forward enough, or will be compromised by the trip.
Academic, until we see the draw; personally, I hate these 20 horse fields, and I wish they would limit it to one gate (14 horses)
Too many bad horses ruin it for legit contenders!
Don\'t understand this comment at all. The money that comes in on those 6 \"extra\" horses who usually should be 100-1 or more but are generally not over 50-1, meaning they have at least twice as much money bet on them as they should, help the odds on the other 14 - a few of whom you like, or at least one, no?
Please list the bad horses Eddie; no doubt we can convince them to scratch. bbb
i\'m on the McCracken bandwagon too. The only other horse I am considering is IWC. without that one bad race i\'d be picking IWC. McCracken is at a track he loves, has a pattern that should bring a forward move, has that explosive turn of foot, and setup perfect with the blue grass.
has many more positive factors and less negatives than the others. Yes, a little slow but Nyquist was too and we don\'t have any consistent fast horses that have thrown back to back fast races (3 or less) in the last 2 preps before the derby that many of the prior derby winners have had. would make a big play if he draws right, IWC draws bad and the price is 8-1 or so. I have to use Practical Joke at 15-1 in the exotics.
George
My point is, there are bad runners EVERY year, and YES, it helps the odds having 20, BUT I would rather see the best horses have a legit chance to win.
Look, I handicap the race every year knowing at least one horse will have it\'s career ruined as some idiot owner thinks their sprinter can run 10F, then you never see the horse again.
I am an owner, and have never bought into a colt because the Derby Dream is a lottery ticket that is a BILLION to one you will ever cash. I don\'t want to catch the fever, and ruin a nice colt!
The Derby is our marquee race, and BTW, co-mingled betting pools virtually guarantee you will make $$$ in the exotics, and not having to waste it on 6 extra also-rans would be a plus.
IF you REALLY want to make big $$$ Derby day, how about CD LOWERING the Pick-6 wager to a 1.00 base instead of 2.00; I would dive in big time!
Boy do we see this differently. IMO the best horses do have a legit chance to win and their price in every pool is better because of the larger field.
Any concern about the jockey? Hernandez has had success on the big stage with Wilkes/Fort Larned in the BC but those were not 20 horse fields. Only 2nd Derby mount IIRC.
I continue to see a ton of support for McCracken. Local horse who has worked very well at the track. I watch the works in the morning and the feed is filled with McCracken! Think he will be bet pretty hard. With that being said I beleive tgjb will be keying on him with his thoro form. Of course post will play huge role this year but horse has never moved back. Two solid numbers as a two year old, improved as a 3 year old and paired up. Loves the track and almost assured to move forward but the trip will determine if he wears the roses. Going to need a patient ride by Hernandez and save ground. This horse is capable of doing that but I don\'t know a ton about Hernandez as a jock and if he is willing to wait for a rail or inside opening.
The TRIP factor is affected dramatically as field size increases; I am speaking from both a race quality AND betting standpoint.
Look, I play more grass than dirt because A) field size is greater on average, and B) better mutual potential. All I am saying is that for our greatest race, there is a point of diminishing returns, from BOTH a racing and wagering viewpoint.
Just look at English racing; extremely large fields in wide straights that often break into 2 or three groups, run tactically. Just look at how our grass stakes racing has changed to mostly even-paced early and fast final fractions.
I have seen too many good to great horses never getting a chance to show their best, and often, it had little to do with figs.
I have no problem betting Hernandez in the Derby.
Solid Churchill regular and he\'s won some big races in the past.
BC Classic,Whitney on Ft Larned among them.
Can\'t knock either of his rides on Girven in the Risen Star and LA Derby.
How\'s he saving ground? Expect a new top for McCracken but even that could be short unless he is able to save a lot of ground.
If you think he runs the best number, bet him to win. For at least a decade, the top number has won the Derby regardless of trip. Exotics are another matter.
You can say that about most of them, they have to work out a trip. In a 20 horse field, do you really think you can predict who gets a trip and who doesn\'t??
If I think a horse will run a number good enough to win, I\'ll take my chances.
He\'s somewhere in between Borel and Rosario as far as saving ground which doesn\'t really answer your the question.
The horses normal style (not the Bluegrass) puts him in the back half of this field into the first turn.If I had to guess maybe between 12th and 17th.
For sure he\'s in front of the three stone closers-Lee,Sonneteer and Gunn.
If he draws closer to the rail no worries with saving ground on the first turn.
Can\'t worry about the 2nd turn.