The last 2 years I\'ve posted a study of 4 or more point jump ups from their best top in the Derby entrants\' last prep race. This year there are at least 4 horses who jumped up 4.0 points or more in their last Derby prep. They are Irap (7.0 points), Irish War Cry (4.0), Always Dreaming (5.5) and Hence (4.0).
Edit-I actually missed one in 2013 because I didn\'t originally include another one of Pletcher\'s jump ups. I missed the poly to 1st dirt failure of Charming Kitten. He is now included.
Overall there have been 30 horses that jumped up 4 pts or better in their final prep. 2 won, but one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he was fast before the jump. The other was Charismatic in 1999. As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but regressed a point. None of the other 27 hit the board and only 2 other made it to 4th to be in the super. Last year we did not have Lani\'s early races, so the data was incomplete as to whether he had a 4+ point jump up, but he\'s included in the study. Here are the results year by year, the 1st # is the horse\'s Derby finish, followed by the points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by the number of points he regressed in the Derby. Overall 27 of 30 regressed, the 8 six points or over regressed at least 1.50 points & the worst of the 7, who progressed 7.0 points regressed 21 points. This year only Irap has the huge jump up (7.0) off his prior top, but the 3 other aforementioned horses this year all broke the 4 point jump up barrier.
This, combined with Pletcher\'s dreadful record with horses who jumped up big in their last Derby prep has me having a very negative (not sheet # projection) opinion of Always Dreaming\'s chances.
2016
6th, 7.75, 2.75
9th, 4.5 (incomplete data), improved 2.25
16th 4.75, 9.00
2015
17th,5.25,16
2014
4th,7.75,2.5
6th,6,1.75
8th, 7,4.25
2013
9th, 4.5,4.0
(none the years 2011-2012)
2010
2nd,4.50,1.00
8th,4.75,3.25
10th,4.00,5.50
11th,5.00,8.00
18th,4.25,25.25
2009
4th,6.0,1.50
6th,7.50,1.75
14th,4.75,6.50
2008-Big Brown won
1st,4.50,improved 1.25
11th,4.00,7.50
2005
7th,4.75,9.25
11th,6.75,5.75
19th,7.0,21.00
2004
14th,4.75,7.25
2003
14th,6.00,9.75
2002
14th,4.00,7.00
2001
6th,5.00,4.50
11th,5.75,8.75
1999 Charismatic won
1st,4.50, paired
15th,5.00,6.00
16th,4.00,8.50
1998
11th,5.25,14.00
Tremendous info. Very useful. It is also worth noting that of the three jump ups in this study that actually hit the exacta, they were all coming off 4.5 pt jump up. There were plenty of 5 pt + jump ups and ALL regressed and were off the board. So, specific to Always Dreaming, he is in even worse shape. You are asking him to do something hasn\'t been done in the recent and relevant past (something fundamentally significant too, unlike the arbitrary trends like no geldings or no horse with less than three starts at 3yo). Combine that with the Pletcher factor, not to mention his dosage is 5.0 (for those who still believe in that), and this guy screams bet against as the potential 6/1 second or third choice. This is a game of probabilities, and weighing the probability of him hitting the exacta vs the odds presented??? I just can\'t endorse him.
Although the focus of your post is on Always Dreaming, some of what you are saying also applies to Irish War Cry. In my view, both he and Gunnevera have less-than-ideal patterns, but they have the fastest tops in the race (by a healthy margin if you ignore Malagacy and his sprint top). The question becomes: how bad a pattern are you willing to forgive in the fastest horse? TGJB has said he is uncertain about the Wood day figures. Would you feel better about him if IWC\'s Wood figure were a point or two slower?
Bit,
IMHO: The list of likeable patterns this year isn\'t very deep to say the least. Add in the fact that a couple of the pretty ones come with a lot of questions.
I hate big negative numbers early in a 3 yr olds season. I posted after the FOY that I thought Gunny was done. However in a crazy year like this with the explosive turn of foot he showed in that race and in the Delta Jackpot anything is possible. His stretch run in the FL Derby is a bit overrated as he ran by some overmatched horses. He can definitely get a suck up bottom part of a tri or super ticket. There in lies this years problem they ALL ARE UNDERNEATH HORSES.
IWC: Distance is not an issue, Curlins off spring improve 5 points from 2-3, take a little of the Wood number and you are correct it doesn\'t look that terrible.
Now, back to the eye test and a big bounce off his previous effort. The Wood was a gut wrenching race and he took all the worst of it. There is some debate over the track that day, I have it Very speed & rail friendly. Green Gratto aside there were a couple big prices horses that held 2nd on the engine & rail passed by better horses. It was a dig deep down and everything he had effort to get the top spot. I\'m sure for any other race but the Derby GM is not bringing this one back in 4 weeks. He will not be on any of my tickets.
I\'ll not be contributing my usual amount to the handle this year. On second thought maybe I\'ll just take Jimbo\'s action for the day 😎
Good luck,
Frank D.
Gunny is more likely an underneath horse because of the style - closers hit trouble or get started too late.
The first half-mile of Gunny\'s FD went in :48 3/5 while he was on or near the rail. The 2nd half-mile went in :48 flat while three to four wide. That doesn\'t look like a horse that\'s cooked.
He\'s had something like 15 5F works at GPW since last July. His first work after the FOY went in 1:04.8, which is the slowest of those works by three seconds. His next work went in 1:01.8, which is the second slowest of those. This is a horse who looks like he A) reacted big time and B) was already starting to recover by the FD. In the FD, he bounces back to his old top - which is a number he\'s run in three of his last four races. That\'s not an IWC kind of bounce. And his most recent work went in 1:00.6 - which is the kind of time he usually puts up.
So, I think he goes forward from here. How far is anyone\'s guess. But I will let the horse-flesh people like Welsch make my decision on how to include him.
The under card should be phenomenal this year with no Tepin or Wise Dan to ruin the dance. If anything.....handle will be way up for me in those slots. Right now- Looking at Lee is my play if he gets in the gate. Don\'t like anyone & for the first time in a long time will hone in on \'the works\'. Hopefully a few stand out.
Off of memory,last time Gunny ran a new top at Saratoga he bounced at Keenland then he came right back to Delta Downs and ran a new top.
In every race I have watched of this horse he makes his move.
He does not need to run a new top a pair is just fine.
To me Gunny is the best value it looks like at 12-1 with the least amount of questions about him. Am I concerned about him getting cut of turning for home or going 6W?
I am, but then again one of Pletchers go to guys is staying with him.
Yes will be relying on Welsh and company in the coming week.
Good Luck
1st off, I don\'t see this year as a single horse year, I\'ll want at least 5 horses to include in exotics, mostly Oaks/Derby DDs. I\'d much rather have a strong feeling on 1 horse, but this year isn\'t it. So I\'m much less inclined to toss a fast horse since there is no standout.
While I feel Always Dreaming is an easy toss because I\'ve seen this with Pletcher too many times before on Derby day-gutting the horse 1 race before the Derby, I\'m not sure how to interpret Gunnevera or Irish War Cry. In Gunnevera\'s case, he has 1 fast race and the rest of his 3 good #s are the same-just average in this field. If he\'s tearing up the track in the morning, I\'m inclined to throw him in the exotic mix. As far as Irish War Cry, I\'d be leery with only 1 workout since when he bounced in the FOY, he had only 1 work between races. 2 works, in good time make him a borderline horse to me. Among the 4 horses who had a 4 point jump in their final prep, the one that I\'ll probably include in my top 5 is Hence. I\'m a big key race guy and the Sunland Derby is looking awfully good, especially if Hedge Fund wins big in Illinois this Saturday.
I\'m still waiting to see the Ark Derby #s and of course, workouts the next 2 weeks, before completing my list of contenders. Right now my top 5 are Thunder Snow, who has 2 average #s on dirt and needs to improve, but if he comes will be the 1st UAE horse I\'ve ever bet in the Derby because he looks like a horse who has a forward move in him; Classic Empire, who was the fastest 2YO and may be rounding up to a peak effort; Gunnevera; Hence, off a key race; and McCraken,a horse I already have covered in future bets with a win bet in future pool 2 & exacta boxes with Classic Empire & the field, which will give me 9 or 10 horses who weren\'t in pool 2 in my exacta box. Since I\'ve already covered McCraken, the horse I\'ll move up to #5 is Battalion Runner, since he does not fit the big jump up in his final prep that has doomed so many Pletcher runners. I consider him the best of the Pletchers. I\'m also having a tough time with Practical Joke. I think he has the best sheet going into the Derby, but he\'s questionable on breeding. I\'m inclined to throw him into the mix if I can narrow down the Oaks.
Lots of big move ups for sure. Does anyone know how horses coming in off a bounce has done? At leash 20% of the horse coming in off a bounce.
Gunnevera backs up 5, Tapwrit backs up 3, Patch backs up 4, J Boy backs up 3,
Top of my head look at Monarchos sheet.
Lots of information in the archives section.
Please feel free to share your findings.
Toppled- you keep referring to the pletcher move up but the last two relevant horses were Danza and Destin and both fired in the derby. I think the recent data is more relevant then data 5-10 years ago. Pletcher has trained/placed Dreaming uniquely so I don\'t believe past data is as relevant and if you look at past data Danza and Destin are good examples.
I thought the same thing about Carpe Diem, man was I wrong. I also think Danza is a bad example when comparing him to AD. Danza had a driving line, every race was better than the prior race. Can\'t say the same about AD. Destin and Revolutionary might be better examples since your are hoping for a pair up. Still percentage wise I think a 2-4 regression is far more likely.
Danza was not a big move up, as you will not see him included among big jump ups in the original post. He improved only 3.75 points off his 2YO top. My cutoff is 4.0 after all data analysis. He had a 2YO number that was good enough for me to consider him an underneath contender that year.
Destin finished 6th and regressed 2.75 points in the Derby, he\'s a great example of the Pletcher jump up since he moved 7.75 points off his prior top and regressed those 2.75 points. If Always Dreaming regresses those same 2.75 points, he\'s not winning.
You can say it about AD if you adjust his Allowance race, which was monumentally slow. With fair adjustments, the horse has never gone backwards.
Let\'s take a look at AD:
10, 5, 9, 9, 0.5-neg
If we adjust his maiden win and his alw race 4.5 & 5 points then he has never gone backwards.
I didn\'t get your figure makers poetic license plate number. WTF are you talking about?
He went backwards from his Saratoga sprint as a 2yo and didn\'t surpass it until the Fla Derby. His pattern is debut-top-x-x-jump up new top. The xs are paired, 4.25 points slower than his 2nd race. Even though he lost his 1st top and easily won the next 2 (xs), his numbers are his numbers. I\'ve looked at 4 different speed/performance #s and everyone has a 2 race regression off his sprint top in his 2nd race.
I can\'t swear to the accuracy of my hand-entered data, but for horses that have run at least two points worse than their top in their last prep (a sample of 70), I get:
New top: 4.3%
Pair: 12.9%
Off: 32.8%
X: 50%
The three new tops were Liaison (2 pts), Imawildandcrazyguy (1.75), and Ten Cents A Shine (1.5).
Note that I\'m not necessarily looking at bounces (poor effort following a good one), just how their last prep compared with their previous top, whenever earned. For example, Classic Empire would fall in this group this year, even though his last race was better than the one that preceded it.
I suppose I should add that the group does include two Derby winners: Monarchos and Street Sense.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I can\'t swear to the accuracy of my hand-entered
> data, but for horses that have run at least two
> points worse than their top in their last prep (a
> sample of 70), I get:
>
> New top: 4.3%
> Pair: 12.9%
> Off: 32.8%
> X: 50%
For reference, the \"all derby starters\" numbers look like this (from 2016 seminar)
Top: 9.5%
Pair: 22.1%
Off: 24.2%
X: 44.2%
(380 runners, from 1995-2015)
(Seminar treated top as more than 1 point better than previous top, pair as within +/- 1 point of top, off as more than 1 point worse up to 4 points worse than previous top, and X as more than 4 points off previous top.)
My bad, forgot about the MSW, but my mind is on that Allowance race. He was MUCH better than a 9 that day, but never got to show it because he didn\'t have to. Impossible to save a 1:16.82 split.
Sekrah,
Can you please explain what you mean by fair adjustments?
Many Thanks,
Vincent
Extremely slow paced races are impossible to rescue because a horse can run as slow a fraction as the race demands but can only come home so fast. Always Dreaming\'s allowance race is a huge wildcard in this regard.
This same idea is why many missed Arrogate\'s big move forward at Saratoga and decried him as \"impossible\" if you were using TG. Not impossible if you properly moved him forward in his previous race where he broke behind a very slow pace and drew clear. An improved performance that was not detected if you were just basing your handicapping on final times.
AD\'s pattern is far from ideal but it doesn\'t look as bad if you judge the allowance race in context (paired 2yo top and moved forward). I think Pletcher intentionally plotted this easier path for him, knowing all along that he had a monster horse on his hands and he wanted to avoid running two big efforts prior to the Ky Derby, something that has plagued his previous contenders.
Thank you for explaining.
Do you feel as though Pletcher will duplicate this horse\'s form out of Florida?
Who really knows and it\'s totally reasonable to not like him at a 5-1 price in a 20 horse field. I just disagree with those who hate his pattern and think he\'s an easy toss. The pattern is deceptive and better than it looks at face value. I think it\'s clearly a new tactic being deployed by Pletcher to try to break his Derby funk. I can\'t wait to see the outcome as it could have reaching implications for sheet reading going forward.
We all have our tendencies, but AD is a voodoo read as pointed out by Frank D. If you adjust 4pts+ to give your read some life, where 9-5(adjusted)-neg0.50, this is a sure toss given three are no significant recovery-time either between the last 2 or the upcoming start. This is standard par-for-the-course read, which is further compounded by TAP Derby record.
Thank you.
Even if AD fails, your analysis \"could have reaching implications for sheet reading going forward\", to use your words.
Do you think Jerry or any life-long sheet players have previously thought of this?
4 weeks is not an insignificant amount of recoup time, especially for one who just needs to recover from a single big effort.
AD\'s huge FL Derby top made no sense either. A 6.5 top for that horse would have been over a 100-1 shot if you were booking action on it based on black and white sheet reading. Horses that do things that make no sense and break the logical pattern rules tend to be special ones, not one-off flukes.
\"Horses that do things that make no sense and break the logical pattern rules tend to be special ones, not one-off flukes\"
Truth.
Question: wouldn\'t you feel better if you saw AD run this kind of number outside of Florida?
re AD, there is one more thing that has not been mentioned much. He has had two 1 1/8 preps. There have been a number of recent derby winners who have that same pattern. Should help down the lane.
You have got to be kidding.....
HAve sheet readers thought of taking huge liberties, adjusting almost every figure that a horse has run, based on the fact that the trainer knew he had a monster from the beginning and completely manufactured his pattern until the Florida Derby.....
No, sheet readers haven\'t thought of that.
Nor should they.
Jim
The figure is the figure - and the number doesn\'t care how the race was run.
But bettors should care about how the race was run.
Sekrah,
Anybody that has been around this game for more than a few months is not going to be surprised by a Pletcher move up at Gulfstream.
It happens.
When he runs well outside of Florida, or in the Derby, that is a story.
He tried \"new things\" last year. Shit, I bought in. I had Destin and Outwork as \"C\"s on my multi race bets. He gave Destin 7 weeks (or more? ) to recover from the big number. He shipped Outwork to NY instead of his usual florida regimen.
Same result.
Every time I get the urge to jump in on one of these strings, I say my mantra... seminar. Seminar.
Sekrah,
Just to play devil\'s advocate.....if that allowance win was so much bigger than the numbers say, to the point where we should move it up 4-5 pts as you said earlier, wouldnt AD be coming off multiple tops and therefore multiple big efforts? If the 5 at two set him back, then I\'d think running in the 4-5 range followed by his Fl Derby is a big two race stretch. So why would you read AD as a horse who is just coming off one huge effort? The 9 in the alw race cant be a 9 when it is convenient for you but a 4-5 when it supports your other arguments
Can I share something with you TGJB,whatever you say in any of these threads, we will still all get the seminar. Believe me.
So because you used Destin and Outwork (two horses I did not care for by the way) that means Pletcher will never win another Derby? Alrighy.
Sekrah,
Yes, that is what I said.
One of us (you) has been on the board too long to be posting dumb statements like \"your read on Always Dreamin\'s pattern is that he hasn\'t reached a level yet\". A horse with a 5 - 9 - 9 - 0 line. Yes, the 4 point backward move wasn\'t an effort, the pair was also not an effort, etc.
TAP\'s record in the derby, along with a disgusting pattern for the horse, is enough to toss a 5-1 shot.
I mention that I played Outwork and Destin to point out that I am not going to toss any pletcher at any price. Those horses were 15-1 or so. With much better looking sheets than Always Dreamin, who will be about one third that price. And IMO there was a reason to believe that perhaps TAP was changing his MO a bit, giving Destin more time and having OUtworks\'s last two efforts in Tampa and NY instead of Gulfstream, where TAP gets all kind of figures and move ups.
\"Jane, you ignorant slut...\"
Okay, enough with \"dumb\" etc.
Meanwhile, I can\'t take it. Let\'s say you give AD his 2yo top in the March 4 race. How does that make him look now any different than Materiality and all the others did?
And I have a question. I\'ve been told Pletcher liked this one better than his other 3yos all winter. But then why wasn\'t he running him for Derby points in March, instead of a nw1x? He really was going to put all his eggs in one Florida Derby basket?
Didn\'t you read sekrah\'s post?
It\'s been a winter long TAP conspiracy to throw off figure makers and change the way sheets are read. BRILLIANT - for Miff when he looks in :)
It almost feels like TAP is really babying this one. He had so many options across the country not just Fla, it is almost as if TAP didn\'t want to risk any issues by having him ship. Not to mention he seemed to intentionally not want to bump heads with top horses twice before the Derby, as evidence by that Alw spot after the Tampa. The horse must be a little on the fragile side maybe?? Either way, the babying they have done with this horse tells me all I need to know with regards to how he will react to that big effort plus the ship, new track. 100k fans, increased testing etc.
Sek,
I agree with regarding slow early pace race shapes. They wreak havoc on figures. But saying the horse \"could\" have run faster is a lot different than saying he \"did\" run faster. Which is that you are saying?
If you\'re saying he could have run faster and therefore you\'re adjusting his number down for the ALW race then I have to say I completely disagree and you are walking on dangerous ground. While I agree it is probable that he could have run faster, the fact is he didn\'t. So in my opinion it\'s a pretty big stretch to try to justify his pattern by saying he could have run faster, so I am therefore adjusting his number down for ALW race although I know he didn\'t run that fast, and this then makes his pattern more useful looking to me and now I can bet him. To me no matter how you slice and dice it his pattern is terrible. If you want to make a case for betting the horse I say just ignore the pattern altogether and make a statement more like, \"The hell with his pattern. He\'s fast enough to be a contender, he\'s won three in a row, seems to like distance, has a good mind and if he repeats his last with a decent trip he is right there.\" In the past that opinion hasn\'t turned out to be right with colts like this who have only run one race that gives them a number that puts them in the mix (think Sinister Minister, etc.) Never know though, this could be the year.
If you are saying you think the number for the ALW race is wrong then that is a different case altogether and I would be interested in hearing why you think that. My own opinion is the number is right. He ran what he ran. He beat nothing, the horses he beat have come back to beat nothing, to my knowledge no one has come out of that race to run significantly faster and make TG want to go back and question the race, etc.
You could look at his (Always Dreaming) sheet much like Arrogates sheet after the Travers.
Never asked to run prior to that.
I will say this. After watching the Fla Derby and his workouts leading up to that race, the 0 is real. The 9\'s do not reflect his talent. I\'m not saying the number isn\'t accurate, but it does not reflect his ability.
I think this horse is real real nice.
Except Arrogate is an all time great horse....once in a lifetime type stuff to get one like that. Pretty low probability that AD is on that level even pre-BC and Dubai. Youre also forgetting the difference in trainer too. One who excels at big races like these, and one who doesnt.
If I have to go as far as to compare the horse to Arrogate to find a reason to bet him, that probably means he isn\'t worth the bet. The only comparison I see is that both horses\' name start with A.
I don\'t believe I compared him to Arrogate. Clearly would be foolish.
Sheet pattern similar up to and including Travers.
Ruthless,
Perhaps I was bit over the top.....I dont think you were comparing the two, I think you were comparing their sheets at certain points at time. Nor do I think your post made it seem like you were saying he was a must bet because of it. All I was trying to say was I see a horse coming off a monster effort relative to his sheet, earned at GP under Pletcher\'s care. While trying to project another big effort, if I have to say \"Well Arrogate did it, so why can\'t AD?\", then it is probably a sign the horse is not worth a bet at 6/1. That\'s all.
Just to correct the record the table referred to in the 2016 seminar is \"Effort Distribution in Kentucky Derby 1995-2015\"
Sorry, poor use of quotation marks.
Just wanted to distinguish that those statistics discussed all starters vs. only those coming off a bounce/off/X/whatever.
Acutally, not its not. Not even particularly close to Arrogate\'s sheet.
Arrogate hadn\'t gone backwards 9 - 4 -4 4
Always Dreamin is 5 - 9 - 9 - 0
YEs, Always Dreaming is like a cross between Arrogate, Secretariat, WAr Adirmal and Spectacular Bid.
Arrogate 4 4 -5
Dreaming 9 9 0
Similar pattern?
More like a cross among Devil May Care, Destin, Bandini and Charming Kitten.
All 4 had the big new top in their final prep before the Derby. All 4 trained by TAP.
Does anyone know what Animal Kingdom\'s numbers were before the KY Derby?
Nope Ruthless. First off, it is 9 - 4 - 4 - 4.
You can\'t cherry pick which numbers you look at.
The fact that AD ran a good number then backed up significantly to the 9 and then ran another 9 before moving forwards is very different than a horse that had never moved backwards and had shown strength by running from 9 to the 4 then paired the four TWO MORE TIMES.
The data is all here on the website. In the archives
12 - 8 - 7 - 3
His best number was running the last 1/2 mile faster (raw) than all other derby winners except secretariat\'s 47.1.
He ran a jump up top in the spiral of 3 I think?
Was considered too slow and a toss in the seminar. Which makes sense he was previously slow but improving. Second successive jump up which sort of requires the horse be initially slow.
I can still remember during the down the stretch call thinking blankly who is Animal Kingdom?
His sheet is in the archive. c/b 2011.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekrah,
>
> Yes, that is what I said.
>
> One of us (you) has been on the board too long to
> be posting dumb statements like \"your read on
> Always Dreamin\'s pattern is that he hasn\'t reached
> a level yet\". A horse with a 5 - 9 - 9 - 0 line.
> Yes, the 4 point backward move wasn\'t an effort,
> the pair was also not an effort, etc.
>
> TAP\'s record in the derby, along with a disgusting
> pattern for the horse, is enough to toss a 5-1
> shot.
>
> I mention that I played Outwork and Destin to
> point out that I am not going to toss any pletcher
> at any price. Those horses were 15-1 or so. With
> much better looking sheets than Always Dreamin,
> who will be about one third that price. And IMO
> there was a reason to believe that perhaps TAP was
> changing his MO a bit, giving Destin more time and
> having OUtworks\'s last two efforts in Tampa and NY
> instead of Gulfstream, where TAP gets all kind of
> figures and move ups.
We see things differently. No worries.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sek,
>
> I agree with regarding slow early pace race
> shapes. They wreak havoc on figures. But saying
> the horse \"could\" have run faster is a lot
> different than saying he \"did\" run faster. Which
> is that you are saying?
>
> If you\'re saying he could have run faster and
> therefore you\'re adjusting his number down for the
> ALW race then I have to say I completely disagree
> and you are walking on dangerous ground. While I
> agree it is probable that he could have run
> faster, the fact is he didn\'t. So in my opinion
> it\'s a pretty big stretch to try to justify his
> pattern by saying he could have run faster, so I
> am therefore adjusting his number down for ALW
> race although I know he didn\'t run that fast, and
> this then makes his pattern more useful looking to
> me and now I can bet him. To me no matter how you
> slice and dice it his pattern is terrible. If you
> want to make a case for betting the horse I say
> just ignore the pattern altogether and make a
> statement more like, \"The hell with his pattern.
> He\'s fast enough to be a contender, he\'s won three
> in a row, seems to like distance, has a good mind
> and if he repeats his last with a decent trip he
> is right there.\" In the past that opinion hasn\'t
> turned out to be right with colts like this who
> have only run one race that gives them a number
> that puts them in the mix (think Sinister
> Minister, etc.) Never know though, this could be
> the year.
>
> If you are saying you think the number for the ALW
> race is wrong then that is a different case
> altogether and I would be interested in hearing
> why you think that. My own opinion is the number
> is right. He ran what he ran. He beat nothing,
> the horses he beat have come back to beat nothing,
> to my knowledge no one has come out of that race
> to run significantly faster and make TG want to go
> back and question the race, etc.
Why do I believe AD could have run faster in the ALW? A horse\'s condition does not improve 9 points in just one month. Effort can change and fluctuate that much between two races in a month, but not condition. A horse can drop 9+ points in conditioning in a month (injury, illness, etc.), but a horse is not adding 9 points in conditioning in a single four weeks. Based on my studies, I believe it takes a healthy (but idle) horse anywhere from 45-60 days to reach their peak condition, 28 is too short. If a figure looks out of line based on subsequent races, I will often go back and put in a condition number for the previous race.
Outside of using the TG figs as my starting point, there\'s nothing scientific about how I handicap. It\'s total feel for each race they ran. I bet I adjust more than anyone here based on pace and trip. Over the years I\'ve become less hesitant of using horses making these massive leaps if the conditions are right.
This discussion is kind of fascinating considering that Always Dreaming will certainly not be my key horse in the Derby, not at 5-1. I just don\'t think he\'s as bad looking as some think he is. Any horse who has a race fast enough to win it has to be taken seriously, and he does.
TheBull Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Except Arrogate is an all time great horse....once
> in a lifetime type stuff to get one like that.
> Pretty low probability that AD is on that level
> even pre-BC and Dubai. Youre also forgetting the
> difference in trainer too. One who excels at big
> races like these, and one who doesnt.
>
> If I have to go as far as to compare the horse to
> Arrogate to find a reason to bet him, that
> probably means he isn\'t worth the bet. The only
> comparison I see is that both horses\' name start
> with A.
Arrogate is a once in a generation horse, agreed. But you don\'t need to be a once in a generation horse to do what AD would need to do to win the Derby. There\'s many examples I can think of early 3yos making huge forward moves and then staying there.
TheBull Wrote:
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> Except Arrogate is an all time great horse....once
> in a lifetime type stuff to get one like that.
> Pretty low probability that AD is on that level
> even pre-BC and Dubai. Youre also forgetting the
> difference in trainer too. One who excels at big
> races like these, and one who doesnt.
>
> If I have to go as far as to compare the horse to
> Arrogate to find a reason to bet him, that
> probably means he isn\'t worth the bet. The only
> comparison I see is that both horses\' name start
> with A.
Arrogate is a once in a generation horse, agreed. But you don\'t need to be a once in a generation horse to do what AD would need to do to win the Derby. There\'s many examples I can think of early 3yos making huge forward moves and then staying there. I just much prefer ADs line over a horse that probably needs a 3-4 pt new top in the Derby. The big Derby top is what\'s truly rare in this race, not pairing up.
So, just wondering who has a pattern like this one. He went off 20-1 and won easily. He had a spectacular work at Churchill before the race. Might not be a bad plan to look at a similar pattern with a great pre-race work at Churchill (since this is a very tough spread race) if there is one.
Sekrah
I agree with a lot of what you are saying.
I do not believe he improved 9 points. On the numbers he did.But he won those races with much in the tank. That is what I believe. I may be wrong, but I don\'t think so. So, in my opinion, when he runs with better he will show it in the figures. I don\'t think you can make a living with this approach, but sometimes you have to trust your gut.His workouts reinforced my opinion leading into the Fla. Derby. His next workout at Churchill will tell me a lot. Is he worth 5 or 6-1?
I am not sure.
I also believe Pletcher is tweaking his approach as Sekrah said in an earlier post. Destin was handled in a different manner than what Pletcher had been doing. This horse differently as well.He realizes he has to make changes to have success in this race.I think he is doing that.
I posted prior to the Fla Derby about this horses workouts and how impressive they were. On the numbers he was nowhere near a play I would ever make. But I did. Sometimes you have to go by a feel. It isn\'t always scientific.
A few years back I had Animal Kingdom. That was based on his workout prior to the Derby I saw on \"The Works\".
Probably the best work that year the week before the Derby.
Numbers would not have put me on him. I believe he won the Spiral on Synthetic earning a 3.
99% of the time I am strictly a numbers player. I rely on Tgraph and Timeform.
This is a real racehorse.
We all have ideas about this race and I am just sharing mine.
Good luck to all.
\"There\'s many examples I can think of early 3yos making huge forward moves and then staying there\"
For the benefit of the rest of us, can you please name a few examples of 3yos jumping up to a 5.5 pt top the race before the derby and then \"staying there\" on Derby day....particularly horses who had an established top already, before said jump up?
Just by going back to 2010 looking at top 3 finishers:
Ice Box jumped up 4,5 points when winning FL Derby, regressed just a point when getting 2nd in the derby after a really messy trip
Paddy O\'Prado in the same year got 3rd in the derby, jumped big 2nd race out as a 3yo, just kept going forward from there.
Animal Kingdom has been mentioned already.
Nehro in that same year made sudden huge progress and just went forward in every race from there. Hope you didn\'t \"learn\" too much from that huge bounce.
I\'ll have another. Built upon his great 2yo foundation (9 8 19) to win both preps and the KD as a 3 yo, running only good numbers (1 3 1).
Dullahan, got 3rd in the derby, jumped 3,5 points at first and then 3 points more in the next start. Went forward in the Derby, too.
Orb. Jumped 6,5 points. Sheets looks a lot like Always Dreaming up to this point. Then he jumped 3 more points in the Florida Derby to a big negative number, a number he paired up in KD. If AD goes on to win both Derby and Preakness even doubters will have to say their sheets are as identical as one could ever find.
Not top 3 in the Derby, but Pletcher\'s Palace Malice jumped 4,5 points that same year to win the Belmont in good style. Haven\'t seen his sheet as a 4yo but pretty sure that one turned out pretty good.
California Chrome. Had established oneself as a pretty mediocre 2yo (6 starts, only one of those were single digits). Then goes forward 11,5 points to a 6,5 points new top. And stayed there.
Danza. Went forward 5 points to a 4 points new top. Stayed there and got 3rd in the derby in spite of a terrible trip (Pletcher).
Wicked Strong that same year got 4th in the derby, jumped 8 points to win the wood running a neg 1. Ran a 1 in the Derby with a difficult trip. Even paired that 1 in the Belmont.
2015 was a great year for sheet theorists. Too bad \"none\" of you cashed by getting greedy ;)
2016 was another good year for sheet theorists. Didn\'t look like you cashed this year either.
BTW: not saying you couldn\'t have liked any of those mentioned, just pointing out the big new tops leading up to their triple crown races.
Pete,
Glaring differences between Orb\'s and AD\'s sheets.
First off Orb had 4 2 yr old races and got quite an education with severe gate issue\'s in his first 3 starts. He came off that 6.5 point new top not bouncing, he followed it with a 3 point top. He was a clumsy colt with a ton of ability and he was trained by a horseman not a businessman or a pharmacist !!!
This was a healthy 3 yr old, highly touted as having a ton of ability that was a late developer. Off the top of my head after that 1 in the FOY yours truly, Jimbo and Jim C. among others all but declared a Derby winner. Look in the archives the posts are there. He also dropped almost 3 points in the wagering as the gates opened in the biggest win pool of the year.
A healthy developing 3 yr old coming into the Derby off 7 races and had faced a lot of adversity vs a babied horse who broke his maiden at Tampa in February.
The biggest positive I can give AD is he was not trained by TAP as a 2yr old so this one may last to Travers week before he is retired.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Frank,
but now you\'re handicapping!! I had almost started to believe one weren\'t allowed to go by anything other than the numbers..
I\'m fully aware that Jimbo had Orb that year, and I did look it up in the archives a couple of weeks ago to confirm it. I think he also said he were on to I\'ll have another. It just seems to me that one can\'t have those if one doesn\'t allow one self to handicap.
I\'m just saying that if one compared the sheet, and AD were to run two neg numbers in a row, you can\'t expect to find many sheets on this level that will resemble each other that much (that is in the numbers).
It strikes me as a tad autistic to rely so heavy on stats and patterns and figures when those numbers obviously don\'t tell you dookie about todays situation. (No offense, but Toppled\'s analysis fits this bill).
Btw, I also found in the archives something along the lines that suggested Jimbo would toss Orb for FL Derby even though he liked him for KD.
Edit - This is what I found in the archives from Jimbo regarding Orb: \"Very bad news for you. Maybe the worst. I am in complete agreement with about every post you wrote on this thread, I could have written them. From the Fairgrounds race to Orb, to thinking that I won\'t bet him in the Fla. Derby and then will like him in the Kentucky Derby, at hopefully a better price\".
Pete,
Handicapping is allowed as well!!!
Pop into a Spa seminar some weekend and see Jerry & Alan get questioned about a read, pattern or how a figure was earned or how the same numbers can be read entirely different by another. The daily debate in the back yard goes on and on for 40 days and 40 nights.
You\'re taking the brunt of your AD case not only for a big top in the last Derby prep, a stat that is tough to argue with.The defense of TAP Florida numbers going into the Derby has resulted in some lengthy sentences!!!
Good luck,
Frank D.
That\'s not what I said in the post you quoted. You significantly narrowed the sample size down by limiting the patterns to a single race. A single race that produces chaotic results because of the unique distance and the amount of horses running. The same reason it\'s rarely been done is the same reason very few tops are run in the Derby. Owners forcing their charges in to that starting gate when they may not be ready to run is another reason for the unpredictability.
The only thing Derby pattern statistics really tell us is how chaotic the race is.
I\'m not sure I would dare if AD wins KD!!
But jokes aside, and as I have stated many times already, I do have a lot of respect for both sheet theory and the regular posters on here. I just think one have to see every figure in context, and that everyone should be humble enough to know that this is not an exact science. Sekrah does not deserve all that heat for trying to get that point across with his unconventional approach to sheet reading, and to be fair he was the one to tout Arrogates huge run at Saratoga in the summer, just by applying this kind of reading.
Of course it would have been even better to get a confident text message from the trainer himself, as TGJB got. How\'s your relationship with Todd, Jerry, would you expect any favors?
One should also be humble enough to appreciate that Todd Pletcher actually is a pretty good horse trainer, all though he might be an even better business man. But do you guys really think that he couldn\'t train a star to win the derby, if he got his hands on one? Do one really think that AD fits the bill of a horse they\'ve been desperate for points for just to get in on the party? Maybe 2/3rds of his 45 horses fits that bill, and he might even have fooled many of you multiple times in the process with good-looking sheets which undoubtedly have created some severe trust issues. Not to mention the statistics.
Anyway you look at it a \"9 points forward move and 5 points new top\" is not the way to read AD. Then it would be better, as Mjellish said, to just say \"To hell with sheets theory and poorly fundamented derby statistics, this year they won\'t do me no good, I want to bet AD because I think he is a beast\". Occam\'s razor.
That leads me onto another thing I\'ve been thinking about, and that you also mentioned briefly in your post about Orb. How does one interpret big money on AD if they show up? It seems like relatively speaking noone really likes him or could like him. So who\'s betting him down? The same guys that crushed him before the FL Derby? Connections that know they\'re sitting on a monster? Maybe the business man Todd Pletcher decided that he will recoup his \"losses\" from winning more graded preps in the pools this year?
This kind of thinking leads me into thinking that I will bet AD whatever the odds, just a boring medium-sized win bet and leave it with that, because there\'s nothing else I like. If he\'s 5-1 someone knows. And if he\'s 10-1, the value is just too good to resist. Sure I\'ll have to add a small straight exacta with Thunder Snow underneath though. Just to rub in the salt. Well, one could always dream.
Cheers,
If you did journey to the back yard? Worry not Jimbo is just as obnoxious live as he is here.....
Oh yes you can\'t fake that! I\'m sure he also is a big hugger though.
Maybe this is a seminar question.
What weight are we to assign sprint figs relative to two turn numbers? There\'s been some discussion pointing to AD\'s 2-year old numbers in 5.5 and 6f sprints - and what this is supposed to reflect about his current form. Not worried about AD in particular, but the general issue.
A horse that runs :12s all day will get very mediocre 6f figures, and great 9f figures. That wouldn\'t seem to suggest any \"development\" at all. Neither would it suggest a big jump up in effort.
Some have brought up Animal Kingdom, Orb, Ice Box even Paddy O\'Prado. Please keep in mind those were wet tracks!
Im talking about horses coming off a huge new top the race before the derby, which is what AD is dealing with. The majority of those examples are not similar. How does I\'ll Have Another\'s 3yo line of 1,3,1 look anything like Always Dreaming? If the two were comparable, I doubt this thread would be so long.
Sekrah, that one is clearly not true. We have a large sample size to deal with. If you want to say the Derby produces DIFFERENT results you are probably right, and there are lots of reasons it could, like field size, and having to qualify. But the data, at least on the question of horses coming off big tops, does not indicate chaos.
Yeah thats the whole point.....I want to know how horses perform off huge new tops (at least 4-4.5) in the Kentucky Derby....going a mile a quarter in a 20 horse field. I dont care how a horse who jumped to a new top in January at Santa Anita did in March in another short field at his home track. at a common distance, with the same testing etc. Those are two totally different sample sets we are looking at.
So what\'s the sample size of 5+ tops in the race before Derby?
I went back 5 years and found only 4 that qualified, only one totally X\'d (Tencendur). Medal Count (6.75 top) ran 4 pts off with a \'T tu\', one of the worst trips ever if I remember correctly. Wicked Strong (7.75 top) also off just 2.25 with a T.
I\'m sure there\'s more if I go further back but basically 1, maybe 2 horses a year have this sort of huge top coming in and it hasn\'t been instant death. Over 20 years? 30 horses? That\'s not a large sample size for a race like this.
How about Todd Pletcher trained filly Devil May Care in 2010?
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2010.pdf
Yeah.. She looked unbeatable.
I didn\'t say she did but look at her sheet.
Yes. She lost her previous races with 13 lengths and 10 lengths, and then made a monster jump in a race where Pletcher CAN do magic, for owners desperate to get in to the derby. I see she traded at 10/1. I mean, if you guys bet this horse down to 10/1, and it sure sounds like you could have, well you should be selling your house and dog and grandma to bet AD at anything close to that. THIS horse is exactly why AD will be value.
Bottom Line: There is upside to Always Dreaming. That\'s why you can have a bet at a price.
Going further back, I found 18 horses with a new top of 5 or more in their last Derby prep. None of them had a new top or pair in the Derby. The best was Ten Most Wanted, who went back 1.25 points.
As TGJB pointed out many posts ago, part of the problem is that Always Dreaming\'s top is not that fast compared to the other horses in the race. Can he afford to go back a point or two and still win?
Another issue is that much of the data we are looking at relates to the steroids era, where steroids could be used to speed a horse\'s recovery from strenuous effort.
I give up. Best of luck to you and hope you return following the Derby. T.
No need to give up but if you could chose between betting AD at 7/1, and Devil May Care at 10/1, which is the better bet? If AD had earned those 9\'s by losing with 10 lengths I wouldn\'t even have considered him at 20/1, the reason why I could justify betting him despite his pattern, despite his trainer\'s record in this race, despite his big top leading into the derby is because he has every right to move forward from what he\'s shown us at the course. There is nothing he has done that\'s suggesting he can\'t be a monster. In fact, many things are telling us that he is. Pletcher\'s different approach with him, fastest FL Derby since 1978, he got bet down heavily last time out even though he was up against Gunnevera whom was perhaps the leading derby contender at that point, he\'s been Pletchers favorite all along, we\'ve heard reports telling us he\'s been beating up on all his training mates all along, the jockey ran with incredible confidence in the FL Derby, he didn\'t react at all when he clipped heels in that same race, he has looked stunning in all his wins and noone can say that they probably have raced him too hard, too early. I mean what more could you ever want from a horse that will be at least 5/1, probably even more, in a race where there is not one single horse to love. He could even win this race with a pairing of his last.
It\'s no sure thing, but it certainly isn\'t laughable to go with him either.
I won\'t say another word about AD because it\'s getting pretty silly.
Good luck to everyone.
Sekrah-- First of all, your original comment about \"chaotic\" was about the Derby as a race in general, and my response about sample size was about that, not the specific pattern. BUT-- there\'s a reason we look at top, pair etc. It gives a much more accurate reading than who wins, especially in a 20 horse field. And the sample size for horses off big jumps/tops is not that small when you go back. And to take it further, it ain\'t so good coming off even smaller jumps, or Pletcher off Florida tops. So yeah, your analysis of other factors could be relevant. But you have a ton of precedent to overcome, and you\'re not getting big odds.
And I seem to remember having this exact conversation with some guy named Covello a couple of years ago (about a horse named Materiality, I think). There were a lot of reasons why that time was different...
Ever have a situation where your buddy is drunk in love with some gal you know is no damn good, and you know there\'s no way to talk him down? Even when the buddy is yourself?
TGJB Wrote:
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>
> Ever have a situation where your buddy is drunk in
> love with some gal you know is no damn good, and
> you know there\'s no way to talk him down? Even
> when the buddy is yourself?
LOL, that\'s the best example I\'ve heard so far!