Here is the way too early stab at a Morning Line I do each year based on takeout listed on HANA\'s website. I am thinking that there may be additions (Conquest Mo Money) and defections (Thunder Snow/Malagacy/Cloud Computing possibly).
Go ahead and tear it apart as I always say. I\'m not as confident as past years but again it is still 19 days out with several actual decisions left to be made by trainers/owners about whether or not to run their horse. If you are curious how I did last year with the M/L I posted on the board once the field was more set I\'ve included it below. The bold numbers indicate the ACTUAL ordinal rank and the ACTUAL odds in the \'16 Derby. The non-bold numbers were my guess.
1 Classic Empire, 3.50-1
2 Irish War Cry, 4.80-1
3 McCracken, 7.80-1
4 Always Dreaming, 9.90-1
5 Girvin, 12.30-1
6 Gunnevera, 15.60-1
7 Practical Joke, 16.50-1
8 Gormley, 17.50-1
9 Hence, 19.80-1
10 Thunder Snow, 23.30-1
11 Battalion Runner, 24.00-1
12 Tapwrit, 24.60-1
13 J Boys Echo, 26.70-1
14 Irap, 32.30-1
15 Battle of Midway, 33.40-1
16 State of Honor, 34.70-1
17 Cloud Computing, 39.00-1
18 Patch, 46.60-1
19 Malagacy, 54.50-1
20 Fast and Accurate, 70.40-1
AE of Note, Lookin at Lee, Approx. 28-1 depending on defection and adjustments to others.
___________________________________________________
1. 1Nyquist, 3.50-1 , 2.30
2. 2Exaggerator, 5.90-1, 5.10
3. 10 Brody\'s Cause, 8.50-1, 24.90
4. 7Destin, 9.00-1, 18.00
5. 4Mohaymen, 10.70-1, 11.80
6. 6Creator, 12.30-1, 16.40
7. 3 Gun Runner, 12.80-1, 10.30
8. 5Mor Spirit, 13.20-1, 12.80
9. 12Mo Tom, 19.00-1, 25.70
10. 9Suddenbreakingnews, 23.30-1, 24.60
11. 11Danzig Candy, 27.50-1, 25.70
12. 8My Man Sam, 29.30-1, 19.50
13. 15Whitmore, 31.20-1, 30.30
14. 13Outwork, 34.70-1, 26.50
15. 14Lani, 36.00-1, 29.30
16. 19Shagaf, 39.00-1, 56.00
17. 18Tom\'s Ready, 44.40-1, 49.10
18. 20 Majesto, 49.00-1, 56.60
19. 17Oscar Nominated, 70.40-1, 42.30
20. 16Trojan Nation, 82.30-1, 42.10
Fairmount1
This is an interesting list and in general am in agreement with a number of things. I thought it was especially interesting to see how last year panned out. However, I am a bit confused on what your line actually represents. Is it an early assessment of what you think the odds for particular horses should be based on your assessment of their relative chances or is it a prediction of the odds set by the public at post time? I think this is an important distinction. If you think Always Dreaming deserves to be almost 10/1 that is one thing, but if you think he will drift that high in the wagering, that is another. I cannot argue with the former, butI would be very surprised if Always Dreaming went off at any higher than 6/1.
Yesterday Jon White discussed what his preliminary M/L odds will be for the contenders and horses on the bubble:
Classic Empire: 5/1
Irish War Cry: 6/1
Always Dreaming: 6/1
McCracken: 12/1
Gunnevera: 12/1
Girvin: 15/1
Practical Joke: 15/1
Gormley: 15/1
Thunder Snow: 20/1
Hence: 20/1
Conquest Mo Money: 20/1
Irap: 20/1
Malagacy: 20/1
J Boys Echo: 20/1
Tapwrit: 20/1
Battalion Runner: 20/1
Cloud Computing: 20/1
Untrapped: 20/1
Lookin at Lee: 20/1
Sonneteer: 20/1
State of Honor: 30/1
Patch: 30/1
Battle of Midway: 30/1
Royal Mo: 30/1
Fast and Accurate: 50/1
Sonneteer at a 20/ml made me spit out my coffee in laughter....I needed that this morning. In other news, Chad now leaning towards skipping the Derby with Cloud Computing....opens the door for Untrapped and Lookin at Lee
I saw that too, looking at the Preakness for Cloud Computing. I\'d imagine both Asmussens on the bubble will make the field, which will give him 3.
Which horses are likely to set the pace in the Top 20/25?
I don\'t see any suicidal early speed here, but it will likely be legit as it always is for the Derby.
Without the benefit of PP, I\'d guess Battalion runner would be sent, Irap would likely be forwardly placed but not sure he\'s fast enough to get the lead. AD should be right there to.
Sorry I wasn\'t clear in the original post. Generally I don\'t think people are too interested in my handicapping opinion or assessment of the Derby horses. In past years I have been more clear to state what the M/L I post represents. I am attempting to predict the off odds when the horses leave the gate for the benefit of helping you determine your bets, the ordinal rank of horses as you play your exotics, etc.
Last year, I was way off on Nyquist, Destin, and Brody\'s Cause. We will see about Always Dreaming but I have put quite a bit of thought into where I positioned Always Dreaming and his odds. I don\'t see him as the second choice or 6-1 horse everyone else sees him as being.
Finally, I will note this is a \"balanced\" odds line that factors in the takeout and represents a real representation of what could be the off odds as opposed to listing 5 horses at 3-1 and 10 horses at 15-1, etc which would never happen.
I have a spreadsheet with the ordinal rank and odds of every Derby horse since 2000 I reference when making this so I have some \"history\" of the what the Derby crowd has done to help me out. Hope this helps. If you have any other questions feel free to pm me.
If you can get 10/1 on Always Dreaming come post time, and he\'s got a decent draw and looked okay in training and have acted cool in the paddock and warm-up, it really should be a no-brainer for everyone to put him first IMO. I\'m considering to play him to win at odds considerably lower than that, because I don\'t expect him to be 10/1.
Fairmount, Fairmount, Fairmount,
I have to step in, Richie Bee is not doing his job as your surrogate!!!!
Your time would be better spent looking for the elusive 6ft, red headed, Oriental girl who speaks French. I\'ve been at it for 40 years and the closest I\'ve come is a 5ft9in Korean who spoke French but was willing to die her hair and wear heels.
Get a life:)
FD step Dad.
Frank
Let\'s be a bit PC...Asian girl who speaks French...
J
I can only assume Jimbo hasn\'t seen the \"no brainer\" usage yet.
He is busy opening a pay pal account to take that action :)
Upon visual inspects of the strides of every horse in all the prep races, none were more impressive than Always Dreaming coming home. The horse looked like he just jumped into the race at the 1/8th pole and smoked them. Despite being far off the pace, Gunnevera only made up 1 1/2 lengths on him in the stretch, and Gunnevera is a class animal. The negative sentiment towards AD has to be purely Pletcher driven.
AD is a real nice horse.
Yeah I\'m pretty sure \"Winnebago Man\" is of another opinion.
I don\'t know what to say Pete.
You still don\'t know where you are, do you? Posting nonsense about a 1 figure horse, with a horse shit pattern, trained by a 1-50 Kentucky Derby trainer, and saying it is a no-brainer to bet this horse as one of the top 2 favorites. Yikes.
You are allowed your opinion. I am glad you have it. But If I want to be an extreme bleeding heart liberal I can be, but I probably don\'t show up at a Trump rally full of the opposite.
silly silly man. I am guessing exuberance of youth. I am setting 22.5 as the over/under.....
Totally Pletcher Driven on a TG board, a horse that runs a 6.5 pt new top in his last prep.
Trump rally... Yeah that sounds about right!
Well I\'ve followed this board for a while and I\'m pretty sure TGJB won\'t be quite satisfied with that comparison. He\'s no Donald. Maybe you\'re the one that don\'t know where you are, after all.
Or it could be that he has one figure that makes him a contender. And it was earned last time out, and was 9 points higher than each of his previous 2.
Trained by Baffert, he would still be a toss as one of the favorites.
I think you missed his point-- he could have said a Trump fan at a Clinton rally and it would have been the same analogy.
Sekrah-- yes, on that day he was very good. And...
Pete,
I am espousing no political views either way.
Just saying that u continue to talk big about a horse that is a toss by almost any sheets standard. And u keep saying it on the board of the best sheet product on the market.
They are silly statements.
Sure he can win. Any of them can.
Good luck,
Jim
You know Jimbo, that\'s an interesting analogy, not in the specific, but in that what we\'re talking about is an ideological split. You either believe horses bounce, or you don\'t.
Just had a similar conversation this afternoon with Serling, about a different horse in a different race...
I\'ve thrown out enough Derby winners over the years fretting over a horse coming in with too big of a top. It\'s not the be-all end-all. Until one goes backwards, they are very live to keep going forward.
Many have won with 3-4 pt tops. This one\'s Allowance waltz shouldn\'t be judged on face value. This was a much stronger horse than the figure he ran that day. I brought this same point up about Arrogate prior to the Travers and that he had a massive move lurking.
I don\'t know if he\'ll end up being my top choice here, but toss him at your own peril.
Serling had a great analogy on Byk show today. The conversation started about a string on odds vs value from this board.
\"twitter and boards have become like a drunk at a cocktail party, 3-4 people are having an intelligent debate about a subject and then a loud drunk interrupts with some babble\"
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t know what to say Pete.
>
> You still don\'t know where you are, do you?
> Posting nonsense about a 1 figure horse, with a
> horse @#$%& pattern, trained by a 1-50 Kentucky
> Derby trainer, and saying it is a no-brainer to
> bet this horse as one of the top 2 favorites.
> Yikes.
>
> You are allowed your opinion. I am glad you have
> it. But If I want to be an extreme bleeding heart
> liberal I can be, but I probably don\'t show up at
> a Trump rally full of the opposite.
>
> silly silly man. I am guessing exuberance of
> youth. I am setting 22.5 as the over/under.....
I haven\'t seen Always Dreaming\'s sheet, so i cannot really comment on him. However, I am curious what the take is on War Emblem? Here was a horse that had pretty clearly showed a reaction point/established level at 8 and then jumped up to run a 1 and followed it with a pair and a jump forward in the Derby. Maybe he was a bet against also and the answer is that nothing is black and white 0-100%......However, there does seem to be times where the jump up was really out of context and the horse cannot be expected to duplicate it and there are times where the horse is just a new horse...something clicked or changed. I have no idea what the story is on Always Dreaming....just the mention of the 7 point jump up made me think of War Emblem.
War Emblem went off @ 21/1, there in lies the difference.
I believe it was Julian that coined the phrase \" you don\'t have to like much about a horse at 20/1\".
TGJB,
Bounce is an extremely debatable topic, even among people who follow this game closely and have a lot of knowledge.
There seems to be an awful lot of evidence out there that horses bounce off big efforts. But of course not always. Then it becomes a matter of how old is the horse, timing since last race, overall running line, trainer, etc.etc.etc.
All that said, I am pretty sure that there is already quite a bit of evidence out there regarding horses entering the Derby, trying to run 1 1/4 on dirt for the first time, off a big new top in their last . Stuff I am sure you will cover again this year. And the numbers aren\'t good.
I think it was 2005, the Giacomo year, where 5 different horses came into the derby off negative numbers. And I thought, well sheesh, even if 80 percent of them bounce, doesn\'t 1 of them have to win (by running well).
Nope.
Sekrah,
NOt sure what numbers you are looking at. Don\'t remember a whole bunch of derbies with horses winning off of 4 point tops.
But are you guys really so fixated on these things that it\'s impossible to look at it from another angle? That sure doesn\'t sound like a healthy approach. I would really like to have this discussion without all the the trashing and meaningless arguments because it could be really interesting.
I mean, had AD ever been asked for it all I would see your points much better, but to my eye it sure hasn\'t looked like it yet. And why then, when you have \"all the data in the world\" (i.e a sample of 45 where Pletcher has had multiple runners in most of them and most of them again without any realistic hope), are you not even open to even consider that Pletcher finally does something right when he eases a horse into the Derby. How can you take those numbers so seriously then? I mean he\'s been out training until now and just happened to win them all, Florida Derby was the first time they ever wanted something out of him but still one was under the impression that there should be more left in the tank. And he ran that race in the fastest Florida Derby time since Alydar in 1978.
It\'s silly IMO to use those numbers in a hunt for the perfect pattern, I mean did you also bet against American Pharaoh every time he raced because he had a 10 point jump second time out? (which he btw never regressed from). Why was Orb\'s 6,5 point jump so much better (after all he had given it all in many races going into the derby). I saw they were \"explaining\" that with lasix at the time in the seminar, but come on, how could you be confident in assigning causality to that? It was no reaction with 1st time lasix.. It just seems like you guys do a lot of cherry picking when \"validating\" your theories, and it\'s my humble opinion that one should always be open for looking at things in a different way.
If AD wins this year Pletcher would be the co-most winning derby trainer this millennium.
And no, I didn\'t say it should be a no-brainer to bet AD as the 2nd choice, I was responding to an estimate of 10/1, as 4th choice.
All the derbies the last 5-6 years have been won by horses winning multiple races in a row going into the derby, AD is the only one that fits that bill, isn\'t that worth something? You have a horse in AD that ran a good number last time, visually very impressive, extremely impressive on the clock in a race that has been the best predictor of Derby success, and he also possesses the most successfull running style by far in Kentucky Derby this century. Isn\'t that worth something either?
And he isn\'t up against anything else one could possibly have great confidence in.
So am I really a silly, silly man for suggesting that he could be worth a bet at a price of 10/1? That is he needs to win 1 out of 11 times to break even.
Jeez. Tough crowd!
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jimbo66 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I don\'t know what to say Pete.
> >
> > You still don\'t know where you are, do you?
> > Posting nonsense about a 1 figure horse, with a
> > horse @#$%& pattern, trained by a 1-50 Kentucky
> > Derby trainer, and saying it is a no-brainer to
> > bet this horse as one of the top 2 favorites.
> > Yikes.
> >
> > You are allowed your opinion. I am glad you
> have
> > it. But If I want to be an extreme bleeding
> heart
> > liberal I can be, but I probably don\'t show up
> at
> > a Trump rally full of the opposite.
> >
> > silly silly man. I am guessing exuberance of
> > youth. I am setting 22.5 as the
> over/under.....
>
> I haven\'t seen Always Dreaming\'s sheet, so i
> cannot really comment on him. However, I am
> curious what the take is on War Emblem? Here was
> a horse that had pretty clearly showed a reaction
> point/established level at 8 and then jumped up to
> run a 1 and followed it with a pair and a jump
> forward in the Derby. Maybe he was a bet against
> also and the answer is that nothing is black and
> white 0-100%......However, there does seem to be
> times where the jump up was really out of context
> and the horse cannot be expected to duplicate it
> and there are times where the horse is just a new
> horse...something clicked or changed. I have no
> idea what the story is on Always Dreaming....just
> the mention of the 7 point jump up made me think
> of War Emblem.
. . . then you get into the prevailing sustained phenomenon of BB\'s horses being so consistently resistant to bounces.
And I\'ve believed in the \"bounce theory\" since my maturity.
Rich,
What are you doing up so late? You\'re an early morning poster. I\'m hoping your not on suicide watch over that hockey team that plays on Chicago\'s west side?
Socalman2,
War Emblem vs Always Dreamin is an awful analogy.
War Emblem came in off paired \"1s\". Paired tops. The only \"reaction\" he had shown was he moved backwards in a turf race as a 2 year old. Surface change. Easily forgivable.
Granted, the paired 1s were at a whole new level. I would have bet against him the first time after he ran the 1 (and I did and lost). You could have said the pair would take something out of him and play against again, but he was over 20-1 and had paired tops at a competitive level. I didn\'t use him. Was in love with Medaglia D\'Oro that year, but pretty sure I remember seeing TGJB talk about a killing in that race, along with other TG users.
Always dreamin has one figure, standing alone, 8 points better than his prior 2 and 6.5 points a new top. And will be one of the favorites. (trainer.....
I am pretty sure that when you see the seminar this year, you will see that horses coming in off pairs is about ideal for the derby.
Jim
Let\'s try and get this tied to reality before all hell breaks loose. War Emblem was coming off a pair into the Derby, not a jump, and that was (and still is) the biggest one race score of my life. AD looks absolutely nothing like him. If he pairs in the Derby, then there\'s a comparison.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve thrown out enough Derby winners over the
> years fretting over a horse coming in with too big
> of a top. It\'s not the be-all end-all. Until one
> goes backwards, they are very live to keep going
> forward.
>
> Many have won with 3-4 pt tops. This one\'s
> Allowance waltz shouldn\'t be judged on face value.
> This was a much stronger horse than the figure he
> ran that day. I brought this same point up about
> Arrogate prior to the Travers and that he had a
> massive move lurking.
>
> I don\'t know if he\'ll end up being my top choice
> here, but toss him at your own peril.
This.
We don\'t have a baseline for Always Dreaming to know whether the FD was the kind of over exertion that will result in a reaction. Chrome\'s sheet has him going from a 12 to a 1 (6 point top) - a level which he stayed above for 5 more races.
The allowance was a total jog over a very slow track, and he still came home like a train.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rich,
>
> What are you doing up so late? You\'re an early
> morning poster. I\'m hoping your not on suicide
> watch over that hockey team that plays on
> Chicago\'s west side?
I\'ll minimize this here, but . . . Preds were a TERRIBLE matchup for the McLaughlins. With that goaltending, they could go a long, LONG way.
AJ,
This was discussed both the Tampa race and the specially written ALW race for him.
Say he could have run 5\'s in both of them with any effort? It\'s still a 6.5 pt new top in his last prep.
> Sekrah,
>
> NOt sure what numbers you are looking at. Don\'t
> remember a whole bunch of derbies with horses
> winning off of 4 point tops.
Gato Del Sol (4.5)
Lil E. Tee (4)
Charismatic (4.5)
Big Brown (4.5)
Side: Wasn\'t the last prep race, but War Emblem didn\'t react to a 7.75 top in the race before his final prep and moved forward in the Derby.
There\'s also a handful of them that have won coming in with 3 point tops.
Sunday Silence (3.25)
Strike The Gold (3.25)
Mine That Bird (3)
Animal Kingdom (3.5)
Orb (3)
Look I know what the numbers are on tops, I see them every year and know what the rule is. I judge on a case by case basis. In my method, AD didn\'t run a 7 point top. More like a 3-4 pt top.
If he pairs in the derby, you\'re looking at 2/1 at best to bet him again, even less if he wins with that number (and then he\'s coming off at least one real effort, perhaps two if Florida Derby took more out of him than it looked). I thought this game was about percentages.
Frank-- Right.
Here\'s a generalization for you-- since the public wildly overemphasizes the last race, any time you are betting a horse off a big new top (assuming it is not concealed) you are getting the worst of it. Which is not to say none of them win, it happens. But they are inherently underlays.
And it\'s even worse when even pairing the effort won\'t necessarily win... a conversation I have had with Alan many times.
jimbo66 wrote: Always dreamin has one figure, standing alone, 8 points better than his prior 2 and 6.5 points a new top. And will be one of the favorites. (trainer.....
Agree on all points here but must add that I can\'t believe no one has mentioned that AD\'s three wins all came in Florida and that the last two were at Gulfstream Park. How have TAP\'s horses faired that ship from Gulfstream elsewhere as I forget???
I do recall him explaining in a long article about his Derby failures that his Derby horses just haven\'t liked the surface at Churchill. I guess people believe this one will like the surface.......
Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If he pairs in the derby, you\'re looking at 2/1 at
> best to bet him again, even less if he wins with
> that number (and then he\'s coming off at least one
> real effort, perhaps two if Florida Derby took
> more out of him than it looked). I thought this
> game was about percentages.
War Emblem was a toss in the Illinois Derby at 6-1.
Pete,
I am going to try and be nicer. But part of the problem you are having is that you are out of your element in that with each post it is clear you don\'t fully understand a lot about sheets and such. Which is OK, that is how many of us learned on this board, but you are using terms like \"no brainer\" while also not understanding what you are writing about.
For example, you are talking about betting against American Pharaoh his whole career because he moved forward 10 points second time out. This is a really really bad statement (using \"bad\" to be nice). First off, his second race as a 2 year old has little do with his Derby. Secondly, horses jump up quickly when they are young. Most of us don\'t measure a horse\'s \"level\" as a 2 year old until they finally either pair or go backwards. For example a young 2 year old that has a line of 15 - 12 - 7 could just mean healthy development. However, a line like 18-10-14-7 looks an awful lot like \"bounce\". The first horse is just getting faster with racing, while the second has already shown he reacts to fast races.
The second problem with your posts is that nothing is getting through. You AGAIN using the Orb analogy. McGaughey and Pletcher is an AWFUL AWFUL analogy on about 1000 levels. One guy is hay and oats, with late developing horses who take time to get faster and then when they get fast, seem to be able to stay fast. The latter gets his horses to fire early in their campaigns, usually their best shot right off the layoff, may NOT be a \"hay and oats\" guy and despite you personally choosing to ignore it, has already shown a steady pattern of horses running well in their last 3 year old prep and then going empty in the derby. The sample size gets even more ugly and if you just look at his Gulfstream horses.
Those facts all matter.
Now, you want to \"guess\" that after 1 for 50 that Pletcher has figured it out. That Always Dreamin will the one horse that wins the Derby with a line like his, and you want to take him as a top 3 betting choice to do so, god bless.
But don\'t be surprised when people who know this game really well are critical
Jim
Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But are you guys really so fixated on these things
> that it\'s impossible to look at it from another
> angle? That sure doesn\'t sound like a healthy
> approach. I would really like to have this
> discussion without all the the trashing and
> meaningless arguments because it could be really
> interesting.
>
> I mean, had AD ever been asked for it all I would
> see your points much better, but to my eye it sure
> hasn\'t looked like it yet. And why then, when you
> have \"all the data in the world\" (i.e a sample of
> 45 where Pletcher has had multiple runners in most
> of them and most of them again without any
> realistic hope), are you not even open to even
> consider that Pletcher finally does something
> right when he eases a horse into the Derby. How
> can you take those numbers so seriously then? I
> mean he\'s been out training until now and just
> happened to win them all, Florida Derby was the
> first time they ever wanted something out of him
> but still one was under the impression that there
> should be more left in the tank. And he ran that
> race in the fastest Florida Derby time since
> Alydar in 1978.
>
> It\'s silly IMO to use those numbers in a hunt for
> the perfect pattern, I mean did you also bet
> against American Pharaoh every time he raced
> because he had a 10 point jump second time out?
> (which he btw never regressed from). Why was Orb\'s
> 6,5 point jump so much better (after all he had
> given it all in many races going into the derby).
> I saw they were \"explaining\" that with lasix at
> the time in the seminar, but come on, how could
> you be confident in assigning causality to that?
> It was no reaction with 1st time lasix.. It just
> seems like you guys do a lot of cherry picking
> when \"validating\" your theories, and it\'s my
> humble opinion that one should always be open for
> looking at things in a different way.
>
> If AD wins this year Pletcher would be the co-most
> winning derby trainer this millennium.
>
> And no, I didn\'t say it should be a no-brainer to
> bet AD as the 2nd choice, I was responding to an
> estimate of 10/1, as 4th choice.
>
> All the derbies the last 5-6 years have been won
> by horses winning multiple races in a row going
> into the derby, AD is the only one that fits that
> bill, isn\'t that worth something? You have a horse
> in AD that ran a good number last time, visually
> very impressive, extremely impressive on the clock
> in a race that has been the best predictor of
> Derby success, and he also possesses the most
> successfull running style by far in Kentucky Derby
> this century. Isn\'t that worth something either?
>
> And he isn\'t up against anything else one could
> possibly have great confidence in.
>
> So am I really a silly, silly man for suggesting
> that he could be worth a bet at a price of 10/1?
> That is he needs to win 1 out of 11 times to break
> even.
>
> Jeez. Tough crowd!
I\'m with you Pete. Rigidity in theory will shred you to pieces in this sport. It was an expensive lesson for me a long time ago. I\'ve stopped looking at numbers in black and white and I\'ve enjoyed this game more since doing so. This is not a knock against TG figures, which are hands down the finest product in the world! It\'s all in the eye of the beholder though.
Are there horses in this race that may be bigger overlays at bigger prices? Of course, there always is a 25-1 shot with a juicy explosive pattern lurking in this race. But that shouldn\'t take away from the fact that this horse is a legitimate contender and should be given gravitas at a price such as 10-1.
Hi Jimbo,
It seems to me your positions on Always Dreaming and Practical Joke are somewhat inconsistent, perhaps you can elaborate or explain:
IIRC, in other threads you have said something to the effect of \"I know Practical Joke\'s sheet looks great, but he seems like a sprinter to me, and his family are sprinters, so I won\'t bet him in the Derby.\" (I paraphrase this as, \"In spite of sheet theory suggesting a bet, I will not bet.\")
Which seems to me at odds with the reasoning behind your suggestion to toss Always Dreaming (which I would paraphrase as \"Too much sheet theory working against him to bet.\")
Please do correct me if I have misstated your position, I don\'t mean to.
6 or 10 to 1, Let the public decide.
Whatever your view of value? I cannot assess this horse as having a 10-15% of winning in a 20 horse field, his trainers Derby record aside.
I appreciate the tone in this, I really do. And you\'re right I don\'t know everything about sheet theory.
But I do know enough about figures that I think I\'m entitled to question WHICH figures to rely on, and to assume that not every number means the same. Are you really sure those figures you are reading when you are reading AD\'s sheets, has anything to do with the real world? If one made figures on training sessions, would you use them too to predict bounces?
Because I do believe in the bounce theory, but for them to even exist it must be some kind of physical explanation to them, i.e a respond to an effort that was bigger than a horse was ready for. The question I\'m trying to resolve before the gate opens on derby day, is whether AD\'s Florida Derby was one of these efforts or not. Well, guess what, I can\'t. That\'s why odds are important. And at 10/1 I\'ll play, if everything else seems fine.
Templeton,
I will be using Practical Joke. For sure. He has easily the best looking sheet in the race to me.
I don\'t know if I will be \"keying\" him. I am a mostly a horizontal player and will likely use 3 horses or so in horizontal bets. But vertically within the Derby I am not sure who I will use yet. I need to see draw and workouts.
What I have said pretty clearly is that for ME Practical Joke is a classic case of the eye test disagreeing with the sheet. I watch him run and he looks visually like a miler or so and \"can\'t quite get the late punch\" to win. Which could be the case. but he is losing ground in all his races. So is he flattening out late because he is a miler or because he is getting wide trips this year.
Not to mention, Practical Joke will be 15-1 and Always Dreamin will be 5-1ish.
One has a 2 year old top of 2 and a 1 - 0 running line this year.
The other has a 9-9-0 running line.
Easy call.
Top,
Just called in a sizable wager on the Rangers. They had some very serious eyes during the National Anthems. One of my tells !!!! They won\'t be embarrassed tonight.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Templeton,
>
> I will be using Practical Joke. For sure. He has
> easily the best looking sheet in the race to me.
>
Ok, I think then that I probably either misunderstood or mis-remembered your position on this one.
>
> I don\'t know if I will be \"keying\" him. I am a
> mostly a horizontal player and will likely use 3
> horses or so in horizontal bets. But vertically
> within the Derby I am not sure who I will use yet.
> I need to see draw and workouts.
>
Makes sense, especially considering the wide trip element you mention below.
> What I have said pretty clearly is that for ME
> Practical Joke is a classic case of the eye test
> disagreeing with the sheet. I watch him run and
> he looks visually like a miler or so and \"can\'t
> quite get the late punch\" to win. Which could be
> the case. but he is losing ground in all his
> races. So is he flattening out late because he is
> a miler or because he is getting wide trips this
> year.
>
I noticed in his last he was asked to make a decent move quite early and wonder if that was part of the reason for his failure to get up in the deep stretch... I think those types of middle moves are tough on a horse (and occasionally move them up for their next race).
> Not to mention, Practical Joke will be 15-1 and
> Always Dreamin will be 5-1ish.
>
> One has a 2 year old top of 2 and a 1 - 0 running
> line this year.
>
> The other has a 9-9-0 running line.
>
> Easy call.
Fair enough! Thanks for clarifying.
Cheers!
Not all mexicans are thiefs.
Jim-let me ask you a question about your 18-10-14 -7 pattern, particularly as a developmental pattern. Let\'s assume the first out ( the 18) was a no try ( see D.Wayne Lucas).The 10 was an effort. The horse reacts to the effort by running a 14. The 14 is still faster than than the 18. The horse now runs a big new top. Assuming spacing ok - in a developing horse in the hands of a competent trainer I might well conclude the horse will pair up the 7 or even go forward. Your view?Much of this view comes from Julian\'s tapes from a century ago and would be interested in your view... and PJ does have the nicest sheet of all contenders, distance concerns aside.
Sekrah,
4 horses in the last 34 years.
From those 4 horses, both Big Brown and Gato Del Sol had never gone backward or paired, only moved forward, so they hadn\'t established a level.
From the other 2, one was Sunday silence, one of the best horses of the last 35 years for sure.
Maybe Always Dreamin is the next Sunday Silence. For 5-1 or so, you can find out.
Jim
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekrah,
>
> 4 horses in the last 34 years.
>
> From those 4 horses, both Big Brown and Gato Del
> Sol had never gone backward or paired, only moved
> forward, so they hadn\'t established a level.
>
> From the other 2, one was Sunday silence, one of
> the best horses of the last 35 years for sure.
>
> Maybe Always Dreamin is the next Sunday Silence.
> For 5-1 or so, you can find out.
>
> Jim
In my analysis, AD has never established a level IMO. Good luck in the Derby.
Rezlegal,
I understand your read. And it makes sense. I guess it depends on price and what the other alternatives are. I certainly would NOT be betting the horse at 5-1 or lower, needing a forward move to win. If a pair can win with the right trip and he is 5-1 or higher, I guess maybe.
My main point was to try and explain to Furious Pete that his \"point\" about American Pharaoh was silly.
But, for me, all other factors equal, I want 15-10-7 more than 18-10-14-7 for a 2 year old.
The first one hasn\'t yet \"hit a level\", while the latter has already shown the 10 was a big effort.
I guess one could argue here comes the bounce for the 15-10-7 horse.
As for Practical Joke\'s sheet. Ugh. A headache for me. Looks so good, but sprinters in the family. The only thing going for him is that Frank D says Practical Joke won\'t finish in the top 12 now.... (started out as the superfecta... :)
Jim
If we are going to play the similar sheet game, I would nominate Danza (2014 in the Archive): trained by Pletcher, decent top at the Spa at two, long rest, sparingly raced at three; jumped forward in Hot Springs, and (drum roll) paired in the the Derby with Trouble. The major difference would be that Always Dreaming\'s top was faster and thus more likely to produce a bounce.
I\'m not saying I would bet Always Dreaming at 5-1. I think this race is going to set up for a closer or a stalker who has learned to take dirt. And I think Pletcher is much better at getting one big effort than at getting two in a row.
About the pair of 9\'s at three: I think it was Mathcapper who pointed out that the Hong Kong batch betting guys failed at first because they failed to weigh the public\'s views in their algorithm. Always Dreaming did not get bet down to 5-2 in the Florida Derby because the public thought the 9\'s were representative of his ability. I think Frank D. characterized those as \"boat races.\"
Bit.
Pletcher did not have AD at 2. Dominick Schettino did.
Danza ran great w a beyond brutal trip, I like the comparison. Would an AD pair up be good enough to get it done this year in your opinion?
That was his last race......
Isn\'t it possible to believe both in this case? Meaning I believe with everything in me that every horse bounces. TG helps illuminate when this will happen better than anything else around. It just seems that maybe, and it\'s a big maybe, but maybe this one didn\'t really run at all his two previous starts and a pair or even another move forward is quite possible this time?
Standard disclaimer: like the cylincly insane I swear off ever betting a TAP in the derby every first Saturday night in May around 6:45pm. but somehow, I\'m over taken by an inner reaccuring sickness and 11 months later I find myself arguing the exact opposite not only to myself but with people I really have no business questioning...
Wasn\'t War Emblem a private purchase by Baffert a few weeks before Derby?
And still 21 to 1. :)
Remember that very well :)
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/23/sports/horse-racing-war-emblem-finishing-where-his-saga-began.html
and thunder fills out the exacta too!
How can you not take into account Pletchers record in the Derby?
The list and long.
That doesn\'t take away from the fact that he ran well? But sure the list is long of TAP 3 year olds that run huge only to be retired soon after, not disputing that at all
Solid Sek, dogmatic rigidity eliminates profitability but does cash tickets (Vito?). The prattle about 18-14-7-? ignores vital variables. Spacing, surface, track, distance, pedigree, post, equipment, class etc.
Derbywise, factor 10 panels for sophomores in the spring at scale weights, 20 animals, 30 some seconds to the turn...chaos! Yet, historically performance figure makers have done reasonably well this heat.
Go figure! bbb
I believe the comparison of AD to War Emblem would be the race after the big top 8,10,1. He paired the 1 and went into the derby as a logical tboro horse (I wasn\'t using thorograph back then). War emblems pattern can\'t be considered healthy right? Pair two year old top first out is great but then move backwards second off? Then run a 1?
I probably shouldn\'t but I am going to throw in my 2 cents here on this colt.
From a pure sheet point of view you can\'t possibly like his pattern or the trainer\'s record in the KY Derby. If you like the colt you have to disregard both of those things altogether or make some type of excuse for them. Can we make an educated excuse?
He debuts at Belmont Park in a 5 1/2F sprint as part of an entry and his entry mate was scratched. He draws post 6 in 7 horse field. He gets bet and goes off as the 9/5 favorite. He breaks well but takes some light bumping on both sides out of the gate, establishes an outside tracking position while pressing an honest pace, gets hung out 3-4 wide on the turn but manages to poke his head in front, sustains that move into the stretch and keeps a straight course but is no match for the winner and winds up getting passed late for 2nd. I\'m not going to post his TG number, but overall it was an unremarkable debut IMO.
He then shows up at Saratoga for his second start in a 6F sprint. He gets bet again and goes off as the favorite from the 4 hole in a 9 horse field. He breaks alertly but winds up stalking from mid pack, takes some dirt (a learning experience), goes 4 wide on the turn and again sustains his rally down the stretch, takes the lead in deep stretch and looks like he is going to go right on by but appears to wait on horses and lets a rival he already passed come back on him and beat him. As soon as he realized he got passed AD re broke and was gaining again, but by then it was too late. Note to self, maybe this colt likes to pair up and wait on horses, he hasn\'t learned how to run off and hide and win yet.
Now he goes to Pletcher who takes him down to Florida. He works at PBD along with the rest of Pletcher\'s Florida string, but Pletcher doesn\'t send this colt to Gulfstream to break his maiden. He sends him to Tampa for a cheaper MDSWT race (note to self, this is not Pletcher\'s usual move so why doing that with this colt). AD is entered in a 1 40yds race for his first try around two turns. The field is a soft one and he goes off as the 1-5 favorite from the 6 hole in a 9 horse field. He again breaks alertly and establishes a pace pressing position, winds up stuck between horses a little tight around and coming out of the first turn but handles it well (note to self this colt is a cool customer who listens to his jockey), the pace is moderate with consistent 12 and change 1/8ths while running with the wind, is asked slightly heading into the 2nd turn and immediately responds while inheriting the rail, is ridden very confidently as Johhny V takes a peak back between his legs, when asked he draws off at will to win by about a dozen. The late fractions into the wind come back slow but he drew off easily from the rest of field and galloped out strongly indicating more distance shouldn\'t be an issue. The fig comes back more or less average, maybe a bit below. Note to self, seemed to like 2 turns and didn\'t wait on horses at all. Weak field, weak fig. May be overrated.
Pletcher chooses not to be aggressive with this colt and run him back in a stakes race. Instead he opts for an ALWN1X at 1 1/8th (note to self, why?). Colt goes off as 1-9 favorite from the 1 hole in a 9 horse field. Breaks alertly, goes to front, sets very slow pace, is very confidently ridden with Johhny V taking 3 peeks back between his legs while hand riding him to a 4 length win. Fig comes back weak, field was weak. Galloped out strongly again seemingly indicating distance was no problem but never had to take a deep breath whole way around. Colt learned nothing and had everything his own way but maybe got a confidence builder. May be overrated or we haven\'t seen his best yet.
Finally is supposed to get the acid test in the FL Derby, but the field overall is not real strong. Gunnevera is the favorite having won the Fountain of Youth but he has a terrible outside post from the 10 spot where it is almost impossible to win at 1 1/8th at Gulfstream. Nearly half the field is over 100-1, only a couple of real contenders and they have major flaws and are not proven graded stakes horses. AD breaks alertly from the 4 post, shows nice athleticism when forced to check off heels on first turn when a rival comes over too soon, doesn\'t seem to miss a beat and recovers quickly (note to self, this matters, this is a cool customer who does not get rattled), is confidently ridden again, stalks the pace, goes three wide on 2nd turn and when asked with whip responds immediately by drawing off with strong gallop out after the race. Fig comes back fairly strong in a quick race but not an overtly fast one. This was a very weak field. Note to self, this colt strutted back to the winner\'s circle and is brimming with confidence right now off a 3 race winning streak, seems to like distance. Pletcher has done a nice job bringing this guy around.
When you look at his overall pattern in the context of his racing history, there\'s no getting around that his last was obviously a big forward move. You can make the argument that he didn\'t have to run any faster in his prior two wins, but its still tough to make the leap to saying he could easily move forward again. Quite frankly it just isn\'t real likely. He\'s already developed a lot this spring. A pair would be much more likely, or maybe a small forward move of say about a point or so. This just isn\'t the type of pattern that usually wins the KY Derby.
Trainer has not fared well in KY Derby overall, especially with horses coming from Florida. But this one hasn\'t been handled like most of his Florida horses. This one has been handled with kid gloves. Why? Is that good or bad?
So to me, the positives are: the colt has handled the limited adversity he has been faced with, seems fairly athletic and would probably handle being stopped or light trouble, seems to listen to his jock and have a good mind, is confident, has two wins at 1 1/8th which should be enough foundation, all indications are he will handle the added distance, has enough early speed to establish a decent position but is not a run off type, and he gets 5 weeks rest off his new top instead of 3 or 4 so a pair or small forward move is not entirely out of the question.
Negatives are: he\'s still coming off a big top and not real likely to move forward enough off this pattern to win given that he\'s already developed a lot this spring and doesn\'t have a strong 2 year old top to build on, his fastest to date may not be fast enough to win, his trainer hasn\'t fared well in KY Derby or at Churchill period for that matter, he hasn\'t beat anyone other than Gunnevera and that one was not able to run his best race that day from the 10 post.
So for me, I personally have not seen enough to excuse the negatives here. With horses like this I could tend to overlook those negatives if I got a price but you almost never get a price with a highly regarded horse coming of an easy Graded Stakes win. So I would need to see strong visual evidence that this colt is ready to make another forward move. He has to \"wow\" me with his last two works, preferably at Churchill, and gallop like he owns the place. Even then, I probably still need to get a price because they can look great in the morning and still bounce in the afternoon, especially if the are facing much tougher competition, and therefore more racing stress, than they\'ve ever had before.
Mjellish a lot of good information in there. I don\'t think there is a right or wrong answer. I prefer to take a stand against IWR because I don\'t believe he is as patient as Always. I also don\'t like the fact he may only get one work in before the derby.
A few other notes to your breakdown of Always Dreaming
1) John R flew to Tampa to ride him in that cheap MSW
2) Dreaming has always beat up on the other Pletcher horses in workouts
3) I truly believe that Pletcher is just trying to get this horse to peak in Churchill. 5 weeks off is perfect for Pletcher. Instead of having Dreaming run in a multiple stakes races and throw big numbers why not save it for later.
I know the comparison of Danza has been made to Always Dreaming but why not just look last year?
Destin 7,8 9,7,-0
came back and ran a 2 at churchill. He had a real tough trip but ran a hell of a race. I bet him back in belmont and lost a close one. Pletcher was in a tough spot running such a big race and having 6 weeks. 6 weeks is just not ideal coming into the biggest, most grueling race in a horses career.
Also to note that -0 was nothing like Dreamings big jump. Destin was all out to beat outwork in the Tampa Derby.
One additional observation. AD needed to win the Florida Derby. I\'ll try to work something up later, but it seems horses that need points, or earnings in the past are more susceptible to the bounce. While the last several winners have come in off winning streaks, none needed the victory in their final prep. BB needed the win for Bodemeister in the 2012 Ark. derby. And even he couldn\'t avoid the bounce in Kentucky, though Bode did run a heck of a race.
jbrown007 Wrote:
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> Mjellish a lot of good information in there. I
> don\'t think there is a right or wrong answer. I
> prefer to take a stand against IWR because I don\'t
> believe he is as patient as Always. I also don\'t
> like the fact he may only get one work in before
> the derby.
>
> A few other notes to your breakdown of Always
> Dreaming
> 1) John R flew to Tampa to ride him in that cheap
> MSW
> 2) Dreaming has always beat up on the other
> Pletcher horses in workouts
> 3) I truly believe that Pletcher is just trying to
> get this horse to peak in Churchill. 5 weeks off
> is perfect for Pletcher. Instead of having
> Dreaming run in a multiple stakes races and throw
> big numbers why not save it for later.
>
> I know the comparison of Danza has been made to
> Always Dreaming but why not just look last year?
>
> Destin 7,8 9,7,-0
> came back and ran a 2 at churchill. He had a real
> tough trip but ran a hell of a race. I bet him
> back in belmont and lost a close one. Pletcher was
> in a tough spot running such a big race and having
> 6 weeks. 6 weeks is just not ideal coming into the
> biggest, most grueling race in a horses career.
>
> Also to note that -0 was nothing like Dreamings
> big jump. Destin was all out to beat outwork in
> the Tampa Derby.
Destin is the one in my mind, and I think this one has better recovery genes. I see a strong resemblence to his sire\'s sire, Empire Maker, who 6 pt topped to a 0 and kept firing them. Always Dreaming is that kind of horse in my mind.
Durability and recovering to avoid the bounce is genetics, not a random crap shoot.
Interesting that the husband-wife owners also (seriously) considering Battalion Runner. JJC opts him over Gunnevera.
BR was said to need time between races. Perhaps he\'s doing well. Perhaps he\'s interesting too. Jimbo will disagree.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Castellano staying on Gunny, per Welsch.
n/t
Was there any mention of a previously rumored JC switch from Gunne to Lookin At Lee?
No, and I hadn\'t heard that.
It would be interesting if JC was mulling a change. I\'d think staying on Gunny over LAL is a pretty easy call. Given the works since the FOY and how he ran the FD, Gunny looks to have recovered from that big number and should move forward.
Battalion Runner is a harder call, not least because Pletcher butters more of Castellano\'s bread (um, that came out weird). But I don\'t know what to make of his sheet - getting back to that number from last year. Moving forward a couple with his running style makes him the likely winner. But my betters on the board can give a more informed opinion.