I\'m leaving out a few 200+/1 types, feel free to ask if you\'re interested in someone I haven\'t listed:
Always Dreaming 6/1
Battalion runner 25/1
Classic Empire 5/1
Gormley 12/1
Gunnevera 10/1
Lookin at Lee 30/1
Practical Joke 14/1
Thunder Snow 25/1 (keep in mind these bets are action whether your horse is in the gate or not)
Royal Mo 30/1
McCraken 8/1
Sonneteer 50/1
Untrapped 75/1
J Boy\'s Echo 30/1
Tapwrit 14/1
Irish War Cry 7/1
State of Honor 20/1
Local Hero 30/1
Irap 35/1
Girvin 8/1
Malagacy 50/1
Conquest Mo Money 28/1
Hence 25/1
Battle of Midway 30/1
Cloud Computing 20/1
Patch 25/1
Fast and Accurate 75/1
The Hilton doesn\'t have anything up yet. I\'ll update if there are any meaningful departures when they post.
my guess:
CE: 5 or 6-1
AD: 6 or 7-1
IWC: 8 or 9-1
Crak: 12-1
Thunder S & Gunn: 14-1
Joke, Girv & Gorm: 16-1
Hence & J Boys sure are juicy, LAL as well if he gets in.
Gormley a bit of a underlay
Keep in mind the average horse in this race has a 1 in 20 chance.
At what price can you play Hence? I have no problem betting a horse \"on the come\", especially off 6 weeks but I need the right price.
Commanding Curve was a play to even a novice sheet reader but he was 37-1... I doubt you get that on Hence (who\'s sheet doesn\'t even look as good). The buzz about Sunland being a key race could end up turning him into an underlay...
It\'s early...But...The slowly growing \'buzz\' regarding Hence might wind up making him this year\'s Derby \'wise guy\' horse...
Was thinking the same, has the wise guy horse ever won the Derby
Last one i remember winning was Go For Gin on a sloppy track after a great work and a sub par work from Holy Bull. But there have been several to hit the board, Commanding Curve being a recent. Remember, its not about picking a winner in 20 horse field all going further than they\'ve ever been. It\'s about making the right bet. Period.
I, for the record, have no clue how i am going to play this yet.
Does anyone know what Pletcher is doing with AD? Is he shipping him to Churchill to work or keeping him in FL till week before the race?
It matters.
Go back and look at how he handled Super Saver vs others. Off lare, he put Carpe Diem at Keeneland. He put Revolutionary at CD but with hanky panky.
Off the top of my head, and i\'m few jack n cokes in, if he ahips him to CD early and he works well i will pay attention and consider. If he keeps him in FL and comes in on top of the race i will toss.
After his work on Friday, \"Pletcher said he had not decided when Always Dreaming will ship to Kentucky.\"
http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/more_racing_news/2017/04/14/always-dreaming-back-to-work.2561452
Don\'t have the answer to the shipping plans, but keeping an eye on Tapwrit as well. Sheet is quite similar to Bluegrass Cat from 2006. Placed at 30-1 to Barbaro and one of the few TAP runners to run a new top in the Derby. SS being another obviously. Looked like Ortiz took the Hippocratic oath before the Bluegrass ride on Tapwrit.
None of Pletchers exacta finishers ran new tops.
Super Saver improved a couple lengths,BG Cat returned to his top(two races back) and so did Invisible Ink(three races back).
If you\'re looking for a longer odds horse underneath you could make a case for Tapwrit or JBoys both coming in after running new tops followed by off races.
Can\'t expect a new top for either but a pair up for one might get a piece of this.
Gerard Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Don\'t have the answer to the shipping plans, but
> keeping an eye on Tapwrit as well. Sheet is quite
> similar to Bluegrass Cat from 2006. Placed at 30-1
> to Barbaro and one of the few TAP runners to run a
> new top in the Derby. SS being another obviously.
> Looked like Ortiz took the Hippocratic oath before
> the Bluegrass ride on Tapwrit.
Interesting thing about Tapwrit is he had 2 races over the Tampa strip, not one. Surface can move you up after one race, but it\'s the second one that can set you back. I wasn\'t shocked when he didn\'t run a lick in the Bluegrass. How he runs next time is anyone\'s guess.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Westgate (the old Hilton) posted, and these may interest you:
Hence: 30/1
J Boys Echo: 30/1
Lookin at Lee: 40/1
Gormley: 10/1
Oops!
Seriously though, there is IMO very little chance any of these is a good bet - horse futures are a long way away from most bookmakers\' area of expertise, so they will typically build quite a bit of vig into these lines (20-30% not uncommon) to make sure that they can\'t get beaten up.
FWIW, I do not know who makes this line at the Westgate, but John Avello does it at the Wynn and he\'s no dummy.
I just use this information to give me another opinion of roughly where the odds will land for pondering/planning purposes.
It is all of limited value without knowing defections and PP draw, but on a slow work day, in the throes of the fever... ;-)