Found this on twitter.
Happy Easter
https://mobile.twitter.com/pinfante97/status/853430668407300096/photo/1
It\'s hard for me to make sense of this. The track was so much faster at Oaklawn yesterday than any of these others. If one was to place importance on it then Conquest MO is the horse to key in on because he Dueled the whole way and was still there. Regarding Gunny was this the Florida Derby where he got beat 7 lengths? Again if this was a tanked purposeful non effort then it might be important. Both of these horses will be decent prices. Coming from 2 totally different spots in the race.
CMM is starting to garner my attention. Up until about a week ago he was a total after thought, but watching previous races before this weekend, he forced me to pay attention, and instantly rewarded that with another solid effort Saturday.
Is it far to say the FL and Sunland derby\'s are the key preps of the season? I think so, and I also think this graph flatters AD & CE to some extent. Yeah the tracks were fast but they were still doing a lot of running late.
Your point about Gunny is spot on as well...
Not sure CMM is even nominated. Anyone with any insight on whether the owners will pay the 200k? They would basically be giving the whole second place purse away for a chance at Derby glory. Decisions, decisions, decisions.
He\'s not nominated for sure, I assumed as well as he\'s ran that the derby fever would be pretty much overwhelming at this point though. Like looking at it as a \"free roll\" after Saturday\'s score...
I don\'t know what was paid for the horse but he has earned just shy of $500K already. Hey why not throw half of it in for the honor of running further than your horse wants to go verses 19 others? Seems like a no brainer to me...Just kidding around obviously, but I\'ve became interested in him of late and I\'m hoping the connections do take the plunge.
Do you or anyone know when they have to decide by?
Arkansas Derby runner-up Conquest Mo Money will van Sunday to Prairie Meadows, said trainer Miguel Hernandez. Hernandez plans to have a division in Iowa with the meet closing Tuesday at his base of Sunland Park. Hernandez said plans for the horse\'s next start are to be determined. Conquest Mo Money is not nominated to the Triple Crown.
I seem to remember a story he was purchased for next to nothing from the Lanes End or Conquest Stables at dispersal sale. That could be my faulty memory, fake news or actually true as in $8,500?
Equibase confirms the latter.
It\'s 5 weeks until the Preakness and that would make more sense. He ran very hard yesterday and had to be gassed.
As far as the Florida races being key? Every single one was one by a different horse. Including Tampa. The only thing consistent was the inconsistency.
Word has it owners to make decision Tuesday.
I read that as well. I have also read that the owner said before the race that he would pay to enter if he had the points.
My understanding is that the $200,000 is not due until entries close the week of the race. If I were the owner, any announcement I made on Tuesday would be tentative. I would at least want to know how the horse is training before I actually ponied up the cash.
Silver, I was talking about the FL Derby specifically, and how it seems to gel with the time graph posted to start this thread. I agree about inconsistency overall.
That\'s a really good point. If as someone else seemed to suggest above that this race may have taken a lot out of him, maybe it does make more sense to train up to the Preakness? There\'s no arguing (from me) that the distance would suit him better in MD.
On the other hand he seems to be an improving horse that tries hard every time. If he comes out of this weekend sound and is training well, I\'d love to see him run, I think the best has yet to been seen from him.
There\'s no way of knowing this, but I\'d guess being an $8,500 purchase would make the decision to run easier for the connections, again assuming he\'s sound. Iowa or Churchill? That alone might hurt his odds some as NBC and the rest of the national media is sure to run the \"feel good\" \"rags to riches\" type pieces on him leading up to the race and turn him on to the public big time.
Haskins made a point and it some what holds water with me,that these horses shipping in from high altitude,yesterday\'s perfromance,MTB in the Derby tend to run good at lower altitude.
I believe Chitu ran 7th in the Derby from high altitude.
Part of me wishes Hence would of stayed out there training a bit longer.
Gunny ran his race in the FL Derby.
Gunny did not loose any ground to AD the last half of the race.
Gunny made his move it was just a bounce of a move and not a top move.
To me this is a very live horse Derby day 15-1?
Yeah I read something about that as well, I guess the problem is the altitude won\'t help you as much 3-4 weeks later.
CMM never raced at 2, and now has 4 races since Jan 6th. The spacing was 23d-28d-28d-20d, and if he runs in KY it\'d be 21d.
That would be 5 races in exactly 5 months, the last 3 starts coming in 69 days.
I\'m super anxious to see the numbers from the AK derby. There has to be a few new tops, this one included. CMM was at a 5, he had to move forward. (16.75-10.5-10.5-5) A lot of development in a short time...It\'d be 35 days to the Preakness... One more forward move next out and he\'ll be right there for a piece, but is that asking to much in three weeks??
The owner while surely a practical man is also on the ride of his lifetime. My guess is he heads for the Preakness.
Not to be confused with the Yay Who judge from Tennessee
Judge Lanier Racing - TDN Article (http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/mckenna-not-a-bad-judge-of-horseflesh/)
I thought about waiting for the Preakness as well. The reality is the owners are faced with the following financial decision (based on 2016):
Kentucky Derby: Supplement $200K + Entry $25K + Starting Fee $25K = $250K
Purse: $1.6M, $400K, $200K, 100K, $60K
Preakness: Supplement $150K + Entry $15K + Starting Fee $15K = $180K
Purse: $900K, $300K, $165, $90K, $45K
If this was purely a decision based on the financial outcome, you have to finish in the Top 2 in order to not lose money. If they supplement to the Ky Derby there\'s no additional supplement fee to the other Triple Crown races.
After MTB won the Derby, I did a study on the potential Sunland Park effect to see if there was anything there.
There wasn\'t.
Per Jay Privman, they will not supplement.
https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/status/854411658025775104
Perfect. My bomber Lookin at Lee is nearly in.
Probably the right move, given the risk of an impossible post.
Many comparing the Sunland/high altitude Derby probables to Mine That Bird. While it
is true that MTB snuck up on Tom Durkin (and others), the reality is that MTB was
Canadian champion 2YO.
Malagacy is now out, which puts Lookin at Lee in. Sonneteer is on deck.
As much as I wanted to see him run in KY, 35 days in between and less distance is likely the smarter decision. But they did send in the $6K just late, that makes me think the effort in the AK Derby actually did take a lot out of him. I\'ll be watching how this one trains, fresh and a square price at Pimilico on a horse that should be on the front end turning for home.. correct me if I\'m wrong but he hasn\'t gone backwards yet has he?
From a toss to a useable horse.
boardedup Wrote:
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> As much as I wanted to see him run in KY, 35 days
> in between and less distance is likely the smarter
> decision. But they did send in the $6K just late,
> that makes me think the effort in the AK Derby
> actually did take a lot out of him. I\'ll be
> watching how this one trains, fresh and a square
> price at Pimilico on a horse that should be on the
> front end turning for home.. correct me if I\'m
> wrong but he hasn\'t gone backwards yet has he?
Correct me if I\'m wrong, but won\'t they have to post the $200k to race in the Preakness?
I\'ve read $150K for the Preakness and $75K for the Belmont.
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I\'ve read $150K for the Preakness and $75K for the
> Belmont.
Then if you\'re going to run in one race, waiting for the Belmont when all the other 3yos are softened up would probably be the best idea. There\'s plenty of pedigree there for 12 furlongs.
The supplement is $150K, and then another $30K in fees/get in the gate, so it would cost the connections about $180K total to run in Preakness
kyderby.com still shows Malagacy at #13 on the updated list. Cloud Computing now out move Untrapped into the 20th spot.
Apparently the confusion arose because Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker took Malagacy off their DRF Derby Watch top 20, based on their expectation that eventually a decision will be made not to run him. They did not report that any final decision had been made in that regard. To my knowledge, there has still been no official announcement either way.