Julian said post race CE wasn\'t \"all the way ready\" to run today. Super tough trip, showed a lot of grit in the stretch, for not being all the way ready, that was an impressive performance. He beat a horse in CMM that fires every time, even though he get\'s limited pub.
CE will be the ML Favorite now? Do you guys agree, what kind of price do you see? I\'d guess the ml would go
Favorite- Classic Empire
2nd choice- Always dreaming
3rd Choice-Irish war Cry
4th choice- McCracken
from here who knows?
CE more than answered the bell today, what about CMM though? Not much talk about this one who seems to run his race every time out? Another strong effort today in my opinion.
Decent performance to manage to win the race, but was it the Derby winner? I didn\'t get that feeling. Race set up pretty well for him in the end, I don\'t know how many lengths Sonneteer made up on him in the last turn and stretch, 10 maybe, while going really wide?
Will be very interested in the figure though.
First adjusted offshore odds after todays race have it:
Always Dreaming 6/1
Classic Empire 7/1
Irish War Cry 7/1
McCraken 8/1
Gunnevera 12/1
Practical Joke 12/1
Thunder Snow 14/1
Girvin 14/1
Draw will obviously be a factor in this, but I still think IWC could be the post time favorite, but it should be close with AD and maybe also Classic Empire. I think Thunder Snow will take money if he shows up, 4th choice - 5th choice maybe? A hell of a betting race if one have an opinion!
Just think of it this way....they all made Lookin at Lee look good.
Good Luck,
Joe B
However you stack up top 4, add PJ and Girvin to the mix for your top 6 betting choices. I\'m tossing 4 of them completely out!!!
Sunland Derby looking like a pretty good prep.
Sonneteer might need a miracle to get into the race.
Amen. Less said the better.
Because the horse won it has to be called a solid effort. How solid? Idk. Will he move forward in 3 weeks? No guarantee. And he needs to.
The final 1/8th looks fast but it to be and illusion. The front 2 were staggering and there were about 5 average critters within 2.5 lengths of each other. There were skeptics today. He was 8/5 ML and went off 9/5. They will still remain. Harlan Holiday was a 6-1 favorite. We are looking at something similar. Possibly the Wood winner at 5-1 with a pair of triple digit Beyers in his resume. Betting public goes here.
Yes. Exactly. That didn\'t look so strong.
Not sure what race the rest of the people in this thread watched.
Classic Empire came in to this race off an extended break, missing workouts (physical and mental problems). He then gets a disgusting trip (not sure what race Furious Pete was watching, saying it set up for him). He was 3w/4w first turn and again 3w/4w second turn.
And he closed down the frontrunners in the lane, leveling off pretty well and running his last fraction in good time.
Now, you want to say that you don\'t want to bet this horse because he is a headcase and there will be 120,000 or so at Churchill Downs. So be it,.
But the performance today was legit. No reasonable interpretation of the race is anything but a good performance by Classic Empire.
As for Derby favorite, I don\'t think this is the year you worry about \"tossing the favorite to create value\". There is no big favorite. 5-1 or 6-1 sounds about right. Classic Empire, Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming are all going to be in the 5-1 to 7-1 range. Nobody else will be less than 10-1.
From those top 3, Always Dreaming is going to be coming in off a 5 point top and 9 point move off his 3-year old races, Irish War Cry is going to be coming in off a multi-point top, having shown he reacts to tops, and then you have Classic Empire, who may be coming in off roughly a pair or so, at a level that may win with the right trip,.
Very hard to toss this horse just \"hoping\" he acts up in front of a crowd, especially if he is 6-1 or 7-1.
Not a key at that price, but tough to toss off any sheets logic.
Jim
I\'m with you, Jim. I thought he was solid and is one of the top contenders in Churchill. Wasn\'t a toss today and shouldn\'t be a toss in 3 weeks.
Agree Jimbo:
Horse has the goods,more concerned about Frenchie.
Maybe the trickiest thing, say... if you have a complicated Derby bet that will take 30 minutes or so to get completed and you want to see how CE looks in the post parade first, you probably won\'t be able to do that and get your bet in.
I know we all want to see our equine athletes on the track first before we lay down a big bet. But it could be \"All Important\" with this colt. As a 2 year old he was very impressive. Then he\'s a mess before the Hopeful, tosses the jockey at the start. Then comes back and wins 2 races, including the BC Juv, impressively. Comes back for his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull and, if you didn\'t see the pre-race, is a complete mess, washed out, about as foamy as you can get dripping from the kidneys, refuses to load and of course comes up empty in the drive when it matters at 1/2 odds. The connections come out afterwards and blame it on a foot abscess, but his refusal(s) to train are well documented. Then today he comes out, looks fairly composed, not hot at all and runs a pretty bang up race.
Which CE are you going to get on May 6th, and how do you handicap and strategize to get your bet in based on the two possible scenarios (assuming you like him at all to start with) knowing you will only get about a 15 minute window to decide one way or the other unless he does you a favor and melts down during the walkover or in the paddock?
What a shi* show...
Not sure why I am picking this post for my maiden after lurking here for years but here goes: Much less playing this horse without the benefit of a look-see given the established antics in any Oaks-Derby Double or Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3.
94 Beyer for Classic Empire.
Versatile horse going back to his Bashford Manor win and yesterdays trip was not as easy as the Breeders Futurity and Juvenile wins from last year.
Could be he doesn\'t like running down on the inside with the kickback-he moved out a couple paths going into the first turn but seemed to handle being in some traffic going down the backside.He had to steady early so maybe Leparoux wanted to get him out of there.
Chart has him a bit keen going into the turn.
Gutsy performance and a gutsy horse for sure.
Buyer beware of a horse who was losing ground on the turn and could not go with the great Untrapped, but forturnately for his followers has a better distance pedigree than the staggering 3 in front of him.
Not for me.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Not mentioned yet, but I thought Mike Smith\'s ride on Untrapped was a total butcher job. Pretty amazing that horse was still within 5 of the winner after a 4w4w and a totally uncalled for middle move into a very warm pace. He rode the horse like he was a 1-5 shot.
Agree. Not one he will show the grandkids.
Good Luck,
Joe B
JB will have a decision to make on the figure. Can\'t see having CE slower than the Handicap winner, given the weight difference and ground loss. But if Inside Straight gets his usual number, the next three went way back. If he gives IS a couple of points better, then there were a bunch of new tops in the derby - and a forward move for Classic Empire.
(PS, I owe the board some drinks for the betting advice.)
Speaking about rides, how about Paco\'s ride on Dickinson. One of the best turf rides you will ever see.
MJ,
Ask Jimbo how much he appreciated that ride, cost him a 5 figure pick 4 ticket with Lady E. OUCHIE !!!
That\'s a tough beat. I\'m sure Jimbo can hack it though.
You won\'t see a better field than what was assembled for the Jenny Wiley. I wasn\'t playing Keeneland yesterday but I had to switch over and watch that race. I knew Paco was very good but that was something else, especially when viewing the head on replay.
Paco is one of the best 5 riders in the country, and now that he\'s riding for major outfits on major circuits everyone will see it. Great grass rider.
It\'s interesting, he sits differently than the other guys.
Inside Straight will clearly get a new top. But CE wasn\'t that far in front of a whole bunch of not so fast horses, though he did spot them almost a point in weight. You\'re right, the question will be how many new tops do you want to give out, and until we have the ground and everything organized I\'m offering no opinion.
Seems to me that given all that led to this race, including missing training, you have to handicap CE the same way in 3 weeks whatever the number was, as long as it was better than his last. Which it probably will be. The headcase factor is another question-- I was in Florida that day, and he looked as bad as a horse can, even to someone who doesn\'t know what he\'s looking at.
I\'m thinking there are a few with enough points who may not go-- especially since several are trained by guys with other horses in the race.
In a game that is known for dealing out bad beats, that was one of my worst in the last few years.
Agree that Paco is a helluva rider
That said, I thought Irad beat him to the hole, almost blindswitching him (harness term I guess). From there, thought Lady Eli had no excuse. Was counting my money.
Rough rough game.
Jim
TGJB
You are only \"pretty sure\" it was better than his last where he didn\'t run a step?
Guess I will wait for the figures but sheesh. He was at least 2w/3w and closer to a half path further out. And he won.
Jim
For me it was the photo for third... bad beat on a tough day.
Irish War Cry\'s last few are going to have his sheet looking a lot like Afleet Alex did coming into the KY Derby.
Wow. Good call.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Seems to me that given all that led to this race,
> including missing training, you have to handicap
> CE the same way in 3 weeks whatever the number
> was, as long as it was better than his last. Which
> it probably will be. The headcase factor is
> another question-- I was in Florida that day, and
> he looked as bad as a horse can, even to someone
> who doesn\'t know what he\'s looking at.
I was there is Florida that day also standing 10 feet away in the Paddock. The horse was sweating so bad if he was human you would assume he was about to throw up!!!!! All of which was disheartening to see considering I had him Singled and was about to close out a major multi race wager win. And I didn\'t....
Next question you have to ask is how long this heavy vitamin and supplement diet Casse now has him on, since he got him out of Florida, before it starts to wear off. A month? A few weeks? Or a few more days...
Just looked at the day, he went forward a couple of points. Track speed for the routes got faster as the day went on.
I wonder which way the trainer having several qualified for the race cuts. Even running a no-hoper potentially gives the trainer more control over the race flow and keeps a potential competitor out of the gate.
While this wasn\'t \"one for the ages\" CE\'s trip was fairly brutal, then considering everything he had going on coming into this race, the fact that he dug in and did enough to win (when a place or show would have guaranteed him the needed points) to me was pretty impressive. He also looked good in the paddock and he was in the gate awhile with the three horse thrashing around beside him and he was totally relaxed. Night and day from his last start appearance wise pre race.
Not sure what the numbers will be but I have to think it was close to pairing up? I think it was Jim who said this above and I\'d agree, on paper he\'ll likely look much better than the other top choices. Casse seemed to be a mix between shocked and relieved post race. He was given the chance to say, he had a ton of confidence in his horse and expected him to perform well...but he didn\'t, not the most encouraging words from a trainer who just got the most over analysed 3 year old in the country to answer the bell in a big way.
I agree he wasn\'t running against the toughest group going, but there was a few that run their race every time, he was wide both turns, totally boxed in for 2/3\'s of the race, major traffic issues, I mean that was an honest effort to win. Will he handle Churchill? Who knows, but based off of what I saw yesterday, I\'ll be looking for reasons to use him in a few weeks.
How hot was Kiran yesterday in general? all his entries showed up loaded, how long will this last for?
Great comparison MJ.....but if my memory serves, wasn\'t Afleet Alex\'s XX race due to a lung infection that they discovered right after the race, when he scoped so poorly? Not to say that the illness couldn\'t be related to the effects of running big the race before but still......
Only reason I say that is because IWC\'s XX race came while facing adversity, a tough trip and pace pressure, not to mention it was following a big effort. He totally quit half way into the FOY. My worry is, with a full 20 horse field, congestion and that hectic calvary charge that usually happens for the first 3fs of the derby....AND coming off another big effort.....who is to say he won\'t totally fold up shop again if things don\'t go his way early? As likely second or third choice, do you really want to find out?
I have seen a number of people try to predict the odds for the Kentucky Derby. There are many things that will affect the odds between now and then, but here are my thoughts on the morning line. I think Battaglia often overvalues the favorite in this race and I know from previous comments he likes Classic Empire. I would think he is going to instill him as the favorite at something less than 4/1. Since 3/1 seems a tad low, I look for 7/2. I think Always Dreaming will be about 5/1 and Irish War Cry will be 6/1. Everyone else will be double digits.
I\'ll post something this week with more exact numbers but I certainly believe McCracken will be single digit odds and possibly the third choice.
Always Dreaming is your fourth choice imo.
Look Fairmount1, apparently you are a bit of a...,a... not an introvert and don\'t take me wrong I mean no disrespect of offense. Your opinion is just as good and legit as any other. I believe you believe McCracken should be 3rd choice.
I find it interesting speculating on the factors that will influence the crowd\'s bets on Derby Day. All around the nation regular people not race fans flock to the event. many golf clubs even have Derby Day Tournaments which kick off the links season in the north.
Winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile and The Kentucky Derby one loss and traditional PP\'s with HUGE appeal. 7/2 @ Post time ha!
While TG clientele will push many dead presidents thru their ADW\'s, offshore account or wherever they can, fortunately, they won\'t move the needle so very much. I\'ll defer to TG for an estimate of their affect on the tote.
My point is simple, player and tourists look at the race and contenders from different perspectives. Some notable example being when Anna Rose Napravnik was riding. She moved the needle. Baffert\'s name moves the needle, even M.C. Hammer and his entourage moved the needle.
McCracken, is a catchy name. but among the players and the subset known as \"Sheet Players\" even only some of them fancy him. Single digit odds based on what? Is he the one that broke the track record at Tampa? Even that won\'t impress my wife and she(s) lives in Tampa, and one in Seattle, and in Miami and Cleveland.
Help, where\'s the remote Joel Osteen just came on late night T.V.
The Johnny and Tara factor is always good for moving odds.
Agree with Fairmount here.
McCraken was the favorite in the last futures pool and single digit odds in pools 2 and 3.
3 for 3 at Churchill with a trainer entry that\'s won two of these things.
Connections called their shot with the undefeated colt going into his last prep saying they want him to peak on Derby Day and winning the Bluegrass wasn\'t the objective.
One or two really good works at Churchill will move the needle.
You might even hear a reference to the \"Street Sense last work\"
I\'ll be shocked if he isn\'t single digits.
OK, I didn\'t know McCracken was so popular in the futures. I don\'t follow the future pools, my ignorance.
I suppose I may be over estimating the \"non player\" bettor motivation. As for those following Johnny & Tara\'s opinions, Johnnym, tell me they aren\'t back again this year.
Plus Mc\'s classic PP\'s page attractive also for those who don\'t sheet. The composition of the final 20 entries will of course be a big factor.
Still somewhat dubious. Obviously interesting speculation.
johnnym Wrote:
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> The Johnny and Tara factor is always good for
> moving odds.
Or turning stomachs.
McCraken actually has a nice looking sheet.
Two preps,coming in off pairs,never gone backwards,developed only 3 points from his two year old top.All good stuff if you\'re looking for a horse to move forward in the Derby.
He\'s slower than maybe half the field going in and figures to be one of the top four choices.Your move.