As Jimbo and I continue our Practial Joke debate in private, all in good taste of course😎 I even got Uncle Bill involved in this one.
Anyone out there know if any horse has ever won the Derby without winning a 2 turn race beforehand?
Funny Cide
Trinniberg tried (I believe), but that would be a different question.
Silver Charm was another.
Practical Joke is sorta like Normandy Invasion.
I was thinking maybe PJ was like Whitmore.
Practical Joke is not going to look like Whitmore.
He is going to look awful good to any sheet reader, when you see his final sheet before the derby.
To me, he is going to be a classic test of \"eye test\" vs \"sheet read\".
Very likely to look something like a 2 year old top of 2, with a 1 - 0 line this year. (the 2 and the 1 we know, the \"0\" is a guess)
So, only a couple points faster than his 2-year old top, 3rd off the layoff, with a good trainer calling the shots. Oh and you get 15-1.
The \"eye test\" part is that he looks to me like a sprinter and finishes up his races like a sprinter. But his figures are getting FASTER with distance, not slower. Continued ground loss is making him look worse than he is.
I was not in love with him until Frank D. took a firmly entrenched position today that Practical Joke can\'t even be in the superfecta. Now I think Practical Joke is a key.........
To be continued.
This Practical Joke (and I hope it isn\'t one) discussion between Frank & Jim has caught my interest.
I sure do believe that trainer Chad Brown has not yet peaked and has noteworthy accomplishments ahead of him. Even wondering if his success in turf routes will have any relation to the classic distance dirt contests coming up.
agree deserving of more consideration
Jimbo,
Our little debate just might be enough to get Miff back on the board?
Mike, what was that name you gave Jimbo? The first name I thought was Big and the last name was from a character in a Bronx gangster flick Eddie somebody 🐎
Exterminator
Talking about eye test, even if his figs are getting faster PJ still seems to be flattening out in the stretch as the distance increases. Gunnevera went by PJ very easily in the Fountain of Youth, and he couldn\'t run down a maiden in the Bluegrass although he had every chance to do so. Watch the way Irap drifts out and in during the stretch drive. That\'s a colt, by the way, that has lost lengths in the stretch of every single one of his dirt races. PJ also never passed him in the gallop out.
Granted, I will concede what your counter points would probably be. PJ came home his last 1/8th shading 13 and the early pace was fair at best in the Bluegrass which made it tougher to run down Irap. You could also say that PJ may have needed the race in the FOY.
But to my eye he\'s a one turn horse. His sire is also much more likely to get sprinters than classic distance horses. IMO he\'s a bet against to move forward at 1 1/4 and he would almost surely need to in order to win.
The real name of the actor is Eddie Montanaro... Actually played himself..Chazz Palminteri found him. (He lived about a block away from Arthur Ave.)
I don\'t think that there is a person on this board that DOESN\'T know his name in the movie!!!!
Sir Barton Frank. He broke his maiden in the Derby....
MJ,
Respect your views, as always, but boy am I having trouble reconciling your view on Practical Joke with your view on McCracken.
Practical Joke flattened out late after a very wide trip, to lose by a neck . McCracken flattened out mid-stretch after a wide trip and lost by 4.
PJ with a 2 year old top of 2, McCracken with a 2 year old top of 5. PJ down to about a 0 this year, while McCracken a top of 2. So he is 4 lengths slower at 1 1/4.
Price? So you would assume you get a better price on McCracken? Nope, at least not in the futures right now. McCracken around 10 to 12 -1 while Practical Joke 16-1, with some 20-1 available.
I like McCracken. I posted it after the Blue Grass, so I don\'t want to argue against him.
But if you want to hold it against PJ that he fell a neck short of running down a maiden while running a \"0\", then it is hard to give a pass to McCracken for running 4 lengths slower (about a \"2\"), especially when PJ was faster last year, is faster this year and is a better price.
Plus, you are in agreement with Frank D. on Practical Joke, and in almost call cases being in agreement with Frank D is a bad thing.... :)
Jim
Just to be clear, I am not on McCracken at this point. My point earlier on the board was the colt had a fair amount of adversity and seemed to learn a lot and handle it well, all the while not being cranked up for the race. That was it. The major point being you have to view the whole race within that context of him not being asked for a gut wrenching, top effort. And I like his mind so far, which is part of it to me. Watch the last 1/16th of a mile in the Bluegrass and tell me which jock was asking his colt to run on, Rosario or Hernandez.
But if he doesn\'t train well there is no way I can bet him. To be honest, I don\'t have a clue yet about how to bet this race. Just some opinions about some of the colts.
Jimmy,
I can\'t argue with you too much on that one. Trackjohn says after most conversations with me he feels the need to go to confession😎
What do you mean most????
Brokers Tip\'s only win in his career came in the 1933 Kentucky Derby when his jockey and the jockey on Head Play were fighting each other down the stretch.
You gotta have priorities...
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As Jimbo and I continue our Practial Joke debate
> in private, all in good taste of course😎 I
> even got Uncle Bill involved in this one.
>
> Anyone out there know if any horse has ever won
> the Derby without winning a 2 turn race
> beforehand?
I would guess that Sea Hero did not win two turns before his Derby win. I couldn\'t find his PPs, but I recall he had won the Champagne and almost nothing after that coming into the Derby.
Also, I would point out that when I started in this game prior to the Breeders Cup, any New York horse pointed for the Derby really only had two chances to try two turns before the Derby....those were the Garden State Futurity and the Wood Memorial (Secretariat was only 1 for 2 at two turns before the Derby). It used to be the Champagne decided the two year old champion and it was one turn. The Remsen was not the big deal in those days the way it is now. After the Champagne, the two big races were the Laurel Futurity (which was a really big deal back in the day) and the Garden State Futurity. The Remsen was for the second stringers that couldn\'t hack it in those races. The Laurel Futurity was 1 and 1/16, but it was out of the dog leg chute they used to have at Laurel (so the race was 1.25 turns). Secretariat and Affirmed and Alydar ran in the Laurel Futurity. I think that Seattle Slew was supposed to but got a minor injury before the race. The Gotham was run as a one turn mile back in those days.
Here is another research question if anyone can help me out.
Who was the last Derby winner to win his debut at 4 1/2 furlongs?
None that I\'m aware of, but Nyquist won at 5f. Don\'t see how relevant such an angle would be.
Thanks sekrah on Nyquist. I am just curious as I agree it isn\'t necessarily a relevant winning angle.
My guess is that the answer to this question dates back to \"days gone by.\" Win early pedigrees of April and May for 2yo\'s typically are not running in the Triple Crown the following year.
This year\'s likely favorite, Classic Empire, won his CD debut at 4.5 furlongs in early May last year.
I only have data accessible to 1988 and there is no Derby winner since then to win their debut at 4.5f. Here were the closest horses that came to winning debut at 4.5f prior to winning Kentucky Derby:
Nyquist – won at 5f
Grindstone – won at 5f
I'll Have Another – won at 5.5f
California Chrome - second in debut at 4.5f, then won at 4.5f next out